International Are we entering a Spenglerian Winter?

[Kassitus]

Hey folks, instead of just getting mad about the rage bait of the day I was thinking we could have a stimulating discussion of a broader concept. In 1918 the German philosopher Oswald Spengler wrote his magnum opus, The Undergoing of the Eveninglands, or The Descent of the Occident, where he argues essentially that collectives of mankind exists as a kind of biological entity and thus civilization undergoes a kind of life cycle similar to an organism or biosphere.

In this conceptualization history is not linear, but rather it is cyclical, displaying patterns which Spengler views in the analogy of the four seasons. Thus civilizations have springs of blooming emergence, radiant summers exemplifying excellence, an autumn of stagnation and decay, and a winter of austerity and bleakness.

In 1918 Spengler viewed Europe as entering its autumn phase and predicted the early 21st century would see Europe enter its winter phase which would coincide with a rise of Caesarism.

Surely it's lost on nobody here that the emergence of the MAGA Era has seen plenty of praise for one dubbed The God Emperor and an increased willingness to step outside the framework of liberalism, AKA to turn towards Caesarean inclinations. Meanwhile the detractors label MAGA as cultish, fascist, and naziesque. Understandably someone within the liberal framework would see similarities with the ideologies outside it with which they are most familiar. People will say such statements are jokes or exaggerations, but such rhetorical devices are often belayed with an underlying truth. Surely it's not a coincidence that both right and left seem to be hinting at the fulfillment of Spengler's prophecy.

So what do you guys think? Was Spengler on to something? If so what season do you think your civilization is in? If you think he was wrong, what alternative model would you propose? And the question that will probably get the most answers, to what extent is MAGA Caesarean?

 

[IDGETKTFO]

 

[IDGETKTFO]

Also, inb4 mayberry

 

[Sweater of AV]

It's enough for me to be sure that you and I exist at this moment.

 

[Siver!]

Hey folks, instead of just getting mad about the rage bait of the day I was thinking we could have a stimulating discussion of a broader concept. In 1918 the German philosopher Oswald Spengler wrote his magnum opus, The Undergoing of the Eveninglands, or The Descent of the Occident, where he argues essentially that collectives of mankind exists as a kind of biological entity and thus civilization undergoes a kind of life cycle similar to an organism or biosphere.

In this conceptualization history is not linear, but rather it is cyclical, displaying patterns which Spengler views in the analogy of the four seasons. Thus civilizations have springs of blooming emergence, radiant summers exemplifying excellence, an autumn of stagnation and decay, and a winter of austerity and bleakness.

In 1918 Spengler viewed Europe as entering its autumn phase and predicted the early 21st century would see Europe enter its winter phase which would coincide with a rise of Caesarism.

Surely it's lost on nobody here that the emergence of the MAGA Era has seen plenty of praise for one dubbed The God Emperor and an increased willingness to step outside the framework of liberalism, AKA to turn towards Caesarean inclinations. Meanwhile the detractors label MAGA as cultish, fascist, and naziesque. Understandably someone within the liberal framework would see similarities with the ideologies outside it with which they are most familiar. People will say such statements are jokes or exaggerations, but such rhetorical devices are often belayed with an underlying truth. Surely it's not a coincidence that both right and left seem to hinting at the fulfillment of Spengler's prophecy.

So what do you guys think? Was Spengler on to something? If so what season do you think your civilization is in? If you think he was wrong, what alternative model would you propose? And the question that will probably get the most answers, to what extent is MAGA Caesarean?

A German viewed Europe as entering it's "Autumn Phase" in the same year that World War I ended...

... well yeah, I'm sure he did feel like that. The German Empire had literally just been defeated and disbanded.

America will get through Trump's idiocy because his tenure ends in 3 years, 9 months and someone else takes charge and presumably rips up everything he's been doing.

 

[Kassitus]

A German viewed Europe as entering it's "Autumn Phase" in the same year that World War I ended...

... well yeah, I'm sure he did feel like that. The German Empire had literally just been defeated and disbanded.

America will get through Trump's idiocy because his tenure ends in 3 years, 9 months and someone else takes charge and presumably rips up everything he's been doing.

Perhaps, but broadly speaking it seems like more and more civil liberties are being de-prioritized by all sides as they attempt to curtail the influence of their opponents. Remember that one of the core pillars of Trumps agenda has been excoriating the neocon establishment and planting the seeds of MAGA. Already we are seeing prominent converts like Vance who will undoubtedly shift the future of the GOP long after Trump is gone. Then you have Democrats who want to remove Trump and weaken his ideology any way they can. Both sides have now normalized using a laundry list of executive orders and pardons to suit their agendas and attack their opponents. In Europe there are more and more cameras on more and more street corners, more and more arrests for social media posts, more talk of banning political parties, etc. In my opinion it seems that Trump is just one manifestation of how politics are changing and the way people think about politics is changing.

 

[evergreenrider]

Time definitely isn't linear. It's a flat circle bound for repeating. Kinda dig this hypothesis. Will do some more research, appreciate it dude.

 

[CatchnShoot]

No.

 

[Deleted member 577981]

i dont know if he is tapping into something that really MUST be and I have no idea if is cyclical model is a necessary reality but whatever the cause I think our country is in existential trouble and I think its hubris and distraction that has so many people thinking otherwise.

we are in real and serious trouble here but it IS centered on trump who is a person who sows chaos hatred and division.. there is plenty of time for our country to self correct the many problems we have but trump is pouring gas all over it and fucking around with matches.

 

[milliniar]

I prefer Egonian Spring.

 

[Dalarna3]

I agree except for the Caesarism nonsense

 

[Xanzito]

I prefer Egonian Spring.

 

[Fox by the Sea]

I agree except for the Caesarism nonsense

why nonsense?
we are in a period where ideologies are dessicated, parties are compromised, institutions are exhausted.
The energy of moving forward has to come from something. or from someone.
If the actual Caesar would appear in Europe now, with his power of conviction, his rethoric skills, and strength of vision, he would have like a 80% support rate and would obliterate all of these abysmal mediocrities we call politicians today.

the problem of caesarism is not finding caesar, but is ending up with someone who is not.

 

[Siver!]

why nonsense?
we are in a period where ideologies are dessicated, parties are compromised, institutions are exhausted.
The energy of moving forward has to come from something. or from someone.
If the actual Caesar would appear in Europe now, with his power of conviction, his rethoric skills, and strength of vision, he would have like a 80% support rate and would obliterate all of these abysmal mediocrities we call politicians today.

the problem of caesarism is not finding caesar, but is ending up with someone who is not.

It's interesting because if there was a case for a Spenglerian Winter, your mentality is literally the reason for it.

Hear me pout because I'm gonna explain. This isn't an attack as such, it's not personal, it's philosophical.

The concept is every 100 years or so all living memory of horror is purged so mistakes are repeated. Whether we're about to collapse prpbably hinges more on a world war than just the random emergence of a MAGA type movement or another false prophet.

The fact is, we have literally never had things so good as a species. Poverty is even far more comfortable than it has ever been, and that could be a controversial statement for those familiar with TRUE destitution, which is still horrific, but it's still not as bad as living in a disease ridden London, for example, where sleeping rough is more dangerous than today, where heat sources don't exist, and illness is plentiful, etc.

But instead of realising how fucking good it all is, the focus is on how bad it is, how divided we are, how different we are, how threatened we are, and yes, I can see there's the possibility of a real ding dong coming along and taken advantage of the disenfranchised to TERRIBLE effect.

World War 3 could easily come when greedy, narcissistic world leaders start becoming interested in expansion as a result of how great things really are. They're not defensive, they're not looking inward, for security, they're looking outward for glory and legacy and silly shit like that.

Get two of these buffoons promising to "fix" what is actually GOOD and basing it on silly emotional upset and spoiled butthurt wankers who are never satisfied, or taught to never be satisfied, and to hate thy neighbour, and sure.

It could happen again.

But I don't think it will. People are too informed to universally collapse into self pity and thus self destruction.

 

[Fox by the Sea]

But instead of realising how fucking good it all is

not disagreeing with your general sentiment, just saying that this is a blessing and a curse.
bored, well-fed lions start fighting each other.
and we sorely lack a higher purpose besides having a confortable bedroom.
when is a confortable bedroom best? when you're tired, not when you're not.
cause imagine a confortable bedroom, with a well-stocked pantry, forever, and not much else. you're just ...existing.
it's great for a while, but then you get cabin fever, especially when society brings no higher goals for you to participate in.
and there's not many real goals like that in this world.
after we did away with god and communism, we expected space to give us something. but that fizzled out.
if you're a 20 year old today, what really excites you about the future? the next iphone? the brutal effects of social media? enchoarching loneliness as an adult?
from reddit to 4chan, i read the same message, over and over, every day, for many years - what's it all for?

 

[PG29 red0 Jr]

I prefer the writings of Egon Spengler.

 

[Siver!]

not disagreeing with your general sentiment, just saying that this is a blessing and a curse.
bored, well-fed lions start fighting each other.
and we sorely lack a higher purpose besides having a confortable bedroom.
when is a confortable bedroom best? when you're tired, not when you're not.
cause imagine a confortable bedroom, with a well-stocked pantry, forever, and not much else. you're just ...existing.
it's great for a while, but then you get cabin fever, especially when society brings no highel goals for you to participate in.
and there's not many real goals like that in this world.
after we did away with god and communism, we expected space to give us something. but that fizzled out.
if you're a 20 year old today, what really excites you about the future? the next iphone? the brutal effects of social media? enchoarching loneliness as an adult?
from reddit to 4chan, i read the same message, over and over, every day, for many years - what's it all for?

I think this true and pivotal, and a good post.

There has to be a real sense of achievement. Of purpose and being.

I think it's funny though how controlled that narrative is. I saw a silly meme yesterday taking a statement of how physically bad for someone playing 9 hours of computer games is, but how they never apply it to 9 hours working in office basically doing the same thing, staring at a screen, communicating with a CPU, eating snacks and barely moving.

Ask most adults and if the cause is important enough, that office job can be a real achievement and source of pride. But don't take pride in just enjoying yourself playing a game, oooh no! That would make you be happy. Feel ashamed.

A trite point, but the deck really is stacked against happiness. So for the kind of huge top line achievement to be gratifying, presumably there was to be fluidity and a real opportunity for upward mobility.

Which there isn't.

I think this is where we all diverge and blame different people and institutions and whatnot. Who is holding us down?

 

[Fox by the Sea]

I think this true and pivotal, and a good post.

There has to be a real sense of achievement. Of purpose and being.

I think it's funny though how controlled that narrative is. I saw a silly meme yesterday taking a statement of how physically bad for someone playing 9 hours of computer games is, but how they never apply it to 9 hours working in office basically doing the same thing, staring at a screen, communicating with a CPU, eating snacks and barely moving.

Ask most adults and if the cause is important enough, that office job can be a real achievement and source of pride. But don't take pride in just enjoying yourself playing a game, oooh no! That would make you be happy. Feel ashamed.

A trite point, but the deck really is stacked against happiness. So for the kind of huge top line achievement to be gratifying, presumably there was to be fluidity and a real opportunity for upward mobility.

Which there isn't.

I think this is where we all diverge and blame different people and institutions and whatnot. Who is holding us down?

Yes, a lof of society seems to be held together by a slender thread, and i don't mean law, it's the ability of the people to find achievement in participating in it. the athenians of 300BC were proud of being part of it, were healthy, actively involved in the city politics, in its wars, in its future. their monuments were a symbol of eternity, which lives, like the gods, among you. their aspects were present in everyday life - the wind, the fire, the storms and clouds, were part of something that is sorely absent in the world of today, at least as a discoursive point - the free powers beyond ethics as Nietzsche used to call it.

Instead, we have the pseudo-joy of small achievements. the career, which for a lot of people is not much than 40 years of drab daily misery, the advancement - all held together, a lot of time, by sunk cost fallacies. how could i give up my accounting job and become a beach bartender in Bali? i'm a 40 year old man, what will people think? what if i fail? what if, what if.

A funny argument i heard the other day is that men stopped having midlife crises because they can't afford buying a sports car anymore. a lot of time it feels like the trainspotting type despondency became societally locked. and this is only at a humble human being level.
and the bigger problem is that i see the intellectual/creative sectors are also stuck.
i think we're in it for some time to come.

 

[Dalarna3]

why nonsense?
we are in a period where ideologies are dessicated, parties are compromised, institutions are exhausted.
The energy of moving forward has to come from something. or from someone.
If the actual Caesar would appear in Europe now, with his power of conviction, his rethoric skills, and strength of vision, he would have like a 80% support rate and would obliterate all of these abysmal mediocrities we call politicians today.

the problem of caesarism is not finding caesar, but is ending up with someone who is not.

I think the problem is that institutional strength is too great (e.g. deep state, judicial interference). Any would-be Caesar would get hamstrung by that, but then you can always argue that someone who gets stopped isn't a true Caesar because a true Caesar, by definition, wouldn't be stopped.