Economy An ECONOMIC DEPRESSION does not automatically lead to an increased mortality rate

[ultramanhyata]

Obviuosly certain hot spots are overrun with patients and in dire need of particular supplies. But in general that argument holds no merit, at least of yet.

NO argument for ANY concern over the virus holds merit "at least of yet" since we have not reached the kind of case numbers in the US that would create a crisis. But those numbers are coming and INEVITABLE according to epidemiologists.

So if your healthy child is seriously injured in a car accident and is rushed to the hospital and needs to be put on a ventilator to save her life but all the ventilators are being taken up by COVID-19 patients... Guess what?

Welcome to Italy.

 

[Oceanmachine]

So you're OK with the next decade of your life being absolute garbage and your future being stolen from you to save a few more baby boomers with very limited lifespans - who've already benefited more than any other generation alive today?

Don't act like a depression is a joke. It's extremely serious and should be avoided at all costs.

It is possible you are right. Many will not recover from this. The loss of pay and the racked up credit card debt etc

 

[Chest Rockwell]

NO argument for ANY concern over the virus holds merit "at least of yet" since we have not reached the kind of case numbers in the US that would create a crisis. But those numbers are coming and INEVITABLE according to epidemiologists.

So if your healthy child is seriously injured in a car accident and is rushed to the hospital and needs to be put on a ventilator to save her life but all the ventilators are being taken up by COVID-19 patients... Guess what?

Welcome to Italy.

And there lies the ultimate risk. One Eveyone should be willing to take. The chances of my child needing a ventilator for any reason compared to the deteroation of their life from a crashed world economy is an easy choice.

Italy is an outlier. 2nd oldest median population on earth. Oldworld infrastructure. Cultural greetings of kissing. And 2/3 of all Italian deaths are still coming from one small isolated city.

But so long as we sell it as "what if its your child whos at risk. Or your mother" So we ignore the very real and clear statistics showing millions of children will die as a result of the economic crash. Actual children. For the hypothetical 1 in 300000000 chance that YOUR kid needs a ventilator for a potential accident that statistics say will never ever ever actually happen.

 

[Hogey]

 

[nostradumbass]

And there lies the ultimate risk. One Eveyone should be willing to take. The chances of my child needing a ventilator for any reason compared to the deteroation of their life from a crashed world economy is an easy choice.

Italy is an outlier. 2nd oldest median population on earth. Oldworld infrastructure. Cultural greetings of kissing. And 2/3 of all Italian deaths are still coming from one small isolated city.

But so long as we sell it as "what if its your child whos at risk. Or your mother"

Were you really surprised that the left wing plan is to not work? That's their goal with everything. Gov't should pay salaries to citizens, we need 7 years paternity leave, we need 8 months of paid vacation every year, we need to retire at 45, a depression doesn't sound that bad.

 

[jeremyemilio]

Well then maybe Bernie and the other "democratic socialists" should STFU with pretending poor people are starving to death all over the country. If poverty is no big deal and doesn't even affect a person's health, then let's put it to bed with blaming poverty for crime and obesity.

I'm more lefty than righty... but this ^^^ is a pretty decent point.

 

[Holic]

Economic collapse doesn't mean increased mortality rate

If people don't have health insurance, they die

Liberals_sweating_over_two_buttons.jpeg

 

[TeTe]

There isn't going to be a depression and this "recession" will be short lived.

Maybe if we had a financial fallout on the demand side, we might have to worry. But the issue is on the supply side. Mass unemployment isn't really on the table right now with only a portion of the service industry being laid off.

 

[DivineMind]

So you're OK with the next decade of your life being absolute garbage and your future being stolen from you to save a few more baby boomers with very limited lifespans - who've already benefited more than any other generation alive today?

Don't act like a depression is a joke. It's extremely serious and should be avoided at all costs.

LOL... what a morally bankrupt turd. Let me guess, you're ok with bombing darkie too so long as we secure their oil supply.

 

[DivineMind]

One of the lines we keep seeing trotted out by opponents of demands by medical professionals for lockdowns is that an economic depression would kill far more than Covid-19 would.

Anything's possible of course, but it's worth noting that during the 8 years of the Great Depression not only did the mortality rate not increase, it actually FELL.

https://www.smithsonianmag.com/scie...on-had-little-effect-on-death-rates-46713514/
https://jech.bmj.com/content/66/5/410.abstract?sid=5c77edc9-6cfa-4154-be20-8272b1ca03b4


Ironically enough given the present situation, several of the mortality rates which decreased during the GD were deaths due to respiratory diseases (FLU, pneumonia, TB).

Stop taking the words of a retarded conman seriously, his ridiculous comments don't deserve a legitimate reply.

 

[Jack V Savage]

There isn't going to be a depression and this "recession" will be short lived.

Maybe if we had a financial fallout on the demand side, we might have to worry. But the issue is on the supply side. Mass unemployment isn't really on the table right now with only a portion of the service industry being laid off.

What's your prediction for the U3 peak this year?

 

[TeTe]

What's your prediction for the U3 peak this year?

5 - 5.5 percent max

 

[Jack V Savage]

5 - 5.5 percent max

Whoa. Sig bet?

 

[TeTe]

Whoa. Sig bet?

Out of curiosity, what do you think it will reach?

 

[Jack V Savage]

Out of curiosity, what do you think it will reach?

Don't know. James Bullard said it could hit 30%. Not seeing any credible sources estimating below double digits. Don't have enough info to project myself, but I'd be willing to bet that it tops 8%. If you want to go higher, we can talk. Note that the second fiscal stimulus bill being talked about is well over double the size of the ARRA.

 

[SBJJ]

Out of curiosity, what do you think it will reach?

Do NOT take that bet!

We are easily looking at double digits

 

[TeTe]

Don't know. James Bullard said it could hit 30%. Not seeing any credible sources estimating below double digits. Don't have enough info to project myself, but I'd be willing to bet that it tops 8%. If you want to go higher, we can talk. Note that the second fiscal stimulus bill being talked about is well over double the size of the ARRA.

Well a lot of this is dependent on how long this lasts. The framework isn't there like it was in 2008 and I believe unemployment was around 10 percent in 2009? The anticipated U3 for March is 4.1 percent I believe. Right now some people in the service industry are laid off and after taking that into account, what does that leave? Sure, if this actually gets much worse over a prolonged period of time, that could rise way higher, but as of right now.... with a quarantine in place people are working from home or still going into their jobs. I don't anticipate a total lockdown ever.

 

[Jack V Savage]

Well a lot of this is dependent on how long this lasts. The framework isn't there like it was in 2008 and I believe unemployment was around 10 percent in 2009? The anticipated U3 for March is 4.1 percent I believe. Right now some people in the service industry are laid off and after taking that into account, what does that leave? Sure, if this actually gets much worse over a prolonged period of time, that could rise way higher, but as of right now.... with a quarantine in place people are working from home or still going into their jobs. I don't anticipate a total lockdown ever.

I think a bet is a good idea. Test out the ideas. I'd say that there's a huge amount of uncertainty here, but a good over/under is probably in the high teens. I don't think it would resolve anything to bet on an even shot, though. So that's where I get the 8%--that's a level that would really surprise me if we didn't hit.

 

[ShinkanPo]

One of the lines we keep seeing trotted out by opponents of demands by medical professionals for lockdowns is that an economic depression would kill far more than Covid-19 would.

Anything's possible of course, but it's worth noting that during the 8 years of the Great Depression not only did the mortality rate not increase, it actually FELL.

https://www.smithsonianmag.com/scie...on-had-little-effect-on-death-rates-46713514/
https://jech.bmj.com/content/66/5/410.abstract?sid=5c77edc9-6cfa-4154-be20-8272b1ca03b4


Ironically enough given the present situation, several of the mortality rates which decreased during the GD were deaths due to respiratory diseases (FLU, pneumonia, TB).

A full blown long term ecconomic colapse can and will kill more people in the lobg run.

But this does not mean that social distancing and lockdowns be lifted.

If there are too many people dead and getting sick those people wont be working and buying stuff either.

The spread will increase exponentially and it could kill millions instead of thousands.

If all the people eating at Mang Jim's Pizza died or got sick. And Jim himself and his staff is sick there would not be a point to operate that buisness.

It will be harder to return to normal wiyh more deaths and sick people.

In short if governnents dont shut the ecconomy down the Virus will.

We also risk the infection killing or making sick the critical infrastructure employees.

Power Plant engineers, Crane loading operators in our shipping ports, air traffic controlers. Its not that easy to replace those people.

 

[Amerikuracana]

It's almost mind-boggling that we're this far into the pandemic response and reporting and there are still tons of people who don't understand the lethal threat that overwhelmed hospitals pose to Americans in all age groups with diseases that have fuck all to do with COVID-19.

And, of course, almost all of the ignoramuses I've encountered who somehow can't wrap their heads around this virtually self-evident fact are Trump supporters.

You don't want to overwhelm the hospital system, because chaos and extra stress on health car professionals is really bad. Having to make unfortunate decisions because you don't have enough resources is bad. Not being able to handle the stress required to function properly is a scary thing.

Hey, maybe if you apply your understanding of that potential problem to the other 87% of the economy, and realize you could be doing to hundreds of industries what an overflow could do to hospitals, maybe you will understand the need for some time frames etc...

I think I have C-19, btw. My lungs actually hurt today, but still no real fever. Could just be acute bronchitis. I don't want to die, and nobody wants to die, but crashing an entire country is also a bad thing that non-selfish people can understand.

It's funny, the people you are pretending/attempting to ridicule? They are generally looking at this entire problem in a bigger picture, with more layers. Most people are not completely opposed to a lot of these measures.. But you have to think about the bigger picture moving forward.