Economy An ECONOMIC DEPRESSION does not automatically lead to an increased mortality rate

Discussion in 'The War Room' started by Rum, Mar 24, 2020.

  1. ultramanhyata

    ultramanhyata Gold Belt

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    NO argument for ANY concern over the virus holds merit "at least of yet" since we have not reached the kind of case numbers in the US that would create a crisis. But those numbers are coming and INEVITABLE according to epidemiologists.

    So if your healthy child is seriously injured in a car accident and is rushed to the hospital and needs to be put on a ventilator to save her life but all the ventilators are being taken up by COVID-19 patients... Guess what?

    Welcome to Italy.
     
  2. Oceanmachine

    Oceanmachine Blue Belt

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    It is possible you are right. Many will not recover from this. The loss of pay and the racked up credit card debt etc
     
  3. Chest Rockwell

    Chest Rockwell Brown Belt

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    And there lies the ultimate risk. One Eveyone should be willing to take. The chances of my child needing a ventilator for any reason compared to the deteroation of their life from a crashed world economy is an easy choice.

    Italy is an outlier. 2nd oldest median population on earth. Oldworld infrastructure. Cultural greetings of kissing. And 2/3 of all Italian deaths are still coming from one small isolated city.

    But so long as we sell it as "what if its your child whos at risk. Or your mother" So we ignore the very real and clear statistics showing millions of children will die as a result of the economic crash. Actual children. For the hypothetical 1 in 300000000 chance that YOUR kid needs a ventilator for a potential accident that statistics say will never ever ever actually happen.
     
    Last edited: Mar 24, 2020
  4. Hogey

    Hogey Red Belt

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  5. nostradumbass

    nostradumbass Steel Belt

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    Were you really surprised that the left wing plan is to not work? That's their goal with everything. Gov't should pay salaries to citizens, we need 7 years paternity leave, we need 8 months of paid vacation every year, we need to retire at 45, a depression doesn't sound that bad.
     
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  6. jeremyemilio

    jeremyemilio Silver Belt

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    I'm more lefty than righty... but this ^^^ is a pretty decent point.
     
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  7. Holic

    Holic I wrote a book!

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    Economic collapse doesn't mean increased mortality rate

    If people don't have health insurance, they die

    Liberals_sweating_over_two_buttons.jpeg
     
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  8. TeTe

    TeTe Senior Moderator Staff Member Senior Moderator

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    There isn't going to be a depression and this "recession" will be short lived.

    Maybe if we had a financial fallout on the demand side, we might have to worry. But the issue is on the supply side. Mass unemployment isn't really on the table right now with only a portion of the service industry being laid off.
     
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  9. DivineMind

    DivineMind Green Belt

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    LOL... what a morally bankrupt turd. Let me guess, you're ok with bombing darkie too so long as we secure their oil supply.
     
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  10. DivineMind

    DivineMind Green Belt

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    Stop taking the words of a retarded conman seriously, his ridiculous comments don't deserve a legitimate reply.
     
  11. Jack V Savage

    Jack V Savage Secretary of Keepin' It Real/Nicest Guy on Sherdog Platinum Member

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    What's your prediction for the U3 peak this year?
     
  12. TeTe

    TeTe Senior Moderator Staff Member Senior Moderator

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    5 - 5.5 percent max
     
  13. Jack V Savage

    Jack V Savage Secretary of Keepin' It Real/Nicest Guy on Sherdog Platinum Member

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    Whoa. Sig bet?
     
  14. TeTe

    TeTe Senior Moderator Staff Member Senior Moderator

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    Out of curiosity, what do you think it will reach?
     
  15. Jack V Savage

    Jack V Savage Secretary of Keepin' It Real/Nicest Guy on Sherdog Platinum Member

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    Don't know. James Bullard said it could hit 30%. Not seeing any credible sources estimating below double digits. Don't have enough info to project myself, but I'd be willing to bet that it tops 8%. If you want to go higher, we can talk. Note that the second fiscal stimulus bill being talked about is well over double the size of the ARRA.
     
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  16. SBJJ

    SBJJ Gold Belt

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    Do NOT take that bet!

    We are easily looking at double digits
     
  17. TeTe

    TeTe Senior Moderator Staff Member Senior Moderator

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    Well a lot of this is dependent on how long this lasts. The framework isn't there like it was in 2008 and I believe unemployment was around 10 percent in 2009? The anticipated U3 for March is 4.1 percent I believe. Right now some people in the service industry are laid off and after taking that into account, what does that leave? Sure, if this actually gets much worse over a prolonged period of time, that could rise way higher, but as of right now.... with a quarantine in place people are working from home or still going into their jobs. I don't anticipate a total lockdown ever.
     
  18. Jack V Savage

    Jack V Savage Secretary of Keepin' It Real/Nicest Guy on Sherdog Platinum Member

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    I think a bet is a good idea. Test out the ideas. I'd say that there's a huge amount of uncertainty here, but a good over/under is probably in the high teens. I don't think it would resolve anything to bet on an even shot, though. So that's where I get the 8%--that's a level that would really surprise me if we didn't hit.
     
  19. ShinkanPo

    ShinkanPo 넌 항상 내 마음 속에있을거야

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    A full blown long term ecconomic colapse can and will kill more people in the lobg run.

    But this does not mean that social distancing and lockdowns be lifted.

    If there are too many people dead and getting sick those people wont be working and buying stuff either.

    The spread will increase exponentially and it could kill millions instead of thousands.

    If all the people eating at Mang Jim's Pizza died or got sick. And Jim himself and his staff is sick there would not be a point to operate that buisness.

    It will be harder to return to normal wiyh more deaths and sick people.

    In short if governnents dont shut the ecconomy down the Virus will.

    We also risk the infection killing or making sick the critical infrastructure employees.

    Power Plant engineers, Crane loading operators in our shipping ports, air traffic controlers. Its not that easy to replace those people.
     
  20. Amerikuracana

    Amerikuracana Plutonium Belt

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    You don't want to overwhelm the hospital system, because chaos and extra stress on health car professionals is really bad. Having to make unfortunate decisions because you don't have enough resources is bad. Not being able to handle the stress required to function properly is a scary thing.

    Hey, maybe if you apply your understanding of that potential problem to the other 87% of the economy, and realize you could be doing to hundreds of industries what an overflow could do to hospitals, maybe you will understand the need for some time frames etc...

    I think I have C-19, btw. My lungs actually hurt today, but still no real fever. Could just be acute bronchitis. I don't want to die, and nobody wants to die, but crashing an entire country is also a bad thing that non-selfish people can understand.

    It's funny, the people you are pretending/attempting to ridicule? They are generally looking at this entire problem in a bigger picture, with more layers. Most people are not completely opposed to a lot of these measures.. But you have to think about the bigger picture moving forward.
     

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