After Merab v Yan you will be shocked how fast MMA changes

[TheMMAnalyst]

Very cool data.

If I were to gamble... I would be looking to identify situations where the odds were not an accurate representation of the likely outcome, perhaps due to sentimental reasons or other bias.

A VERY interesting aspect of this fight, that if you were looking to justify why Yan could win... imo... this would be a big clue.


This is Merabs 4th title fight this year. 4th camp. 4th weight cut

He is on a short turnaround and rumored to have had a tough weight cut. 63 days between title fights is a crazy short turnaround for a champ in this era.
Average is about 9 months, this is 2.

All of that bodes poorly for a man whose success is dependent on extremely high, off the bell curve, levels of stamina and output.

The 4th title fight in a year is also another huge intangible - the weight cuts, the camps, the media tours, etc. It's a never-ending show that pulls you in every direction and it is downright exhausting.

In Merab's favor he has had "home-field advantage" as Yan said, basically fighting right nearby where he lives Vegas/LA/New Jersey (splits time between Jersey and Vegas), so that does make a lot of the stuff easier in terms of travel, adapting to new time-zone/climate, having a support system/structure in place in those areas to build your camp around.

There are just so many "what-if's" in this fight that it's tough to be super-confident that Merab can replicate what is essentially his most dominant and impressive performance of his entire career against arguably the best and most well-rounded opponent of his entire career.

 

[Cowboy Kurt Angle]

This thread is getting bumped after Saturday

 

[Harlekin]

Merab uses his feinting game with his ceo cardio way better nowadays. His striking overall improved a ton.
It's because he no longer trains with Serra/Longo. Those guys never produce a great striker.
He improved more than Yan, due to ceo cardio.

Yan still has that stuck in the mud footwork. Well balanced, but massively overhyped by the UFC commentators.

Merab feints with his eyes, head, arms, shoulders, feet, nonstop.
Yan will be overloaded and sticking to his usal ~30 punches a round.
Even if he gets Merab's timing down and counters him, his output will be too low.

Merab will win enough rounds with clinch, output, takedowns.
Yan has a punchers chance, but Merab recovers ceo like.

 

[MMACro]

But Merab also hasn't looked the same since the first fight against Yan - his output has dropped significantly in terms of takedown attempts and strike attempts. Against Yan he attempted 49 takedowns and threw 338 strikes. Against Umar he attempted 30 takedowns and threw 237 strikes, against Sandhagen he attempted 37 takedowns and threw 257 strikes. That means his output has consistently dropped by a third, and I don't think it's an outlier.

Uhm lol,if Merab wanted or had to he would shoot 50x against those guys as well
He was just comfortable to stand more with them as he improved(almost KO'd Cory).Plus Yan's style of fighting grants him those "couple" extra attempts

 

[Arm Barbarian]

Something tells me this is a troll thread.

 

[BFoe]

Mark my words. I put it here now. In a years time we will be talking about Yan as the BW goat.

Wow, that’s all he needs to surpass Cruz, when he’s about a zillion light years away from doing that now?? Should be a hell of a year then.

 

[TheMMAnalyst]

Uhm lol,if Merab wanted or had to he would shoot 50x against those guys as well
He was just comfortable to stand more with them as he improved(almost KO'd Cory).Plus Yan's style of fighting grants him those "couple" extra attempts

You can’t always replicate your best performance ever.

I’ve seen all Merab’s fights and the Yan fight is the most impressive he’s ever looked in terms of cardio/pace. He blended takedowns with striking and clinch pressure perfectly, always keeping Yan reacting and guessing, and most importantly never stopping or even seeming to slow down.

But those conditions aren’t perfectly replicable - if Yan is healthier (both arms work) and he has a 30% bigger cage to move around those entries and positions might not be as available. Merab also might not be able to hit that peak output anymore - almost 35, 4 weight cuts/champ camps in a year, etc.

Maybe he chose to stand more against Cory or maybe Cory made him stand more or maybe both. Based on all his post-Yan fights in a large cage we’ve seen a drop off in output comparatively.

I guess we will find out tomorrow night for certain if the intangibles of circumstance matter or if Merab is just a perfect nightmare matchup for Yan regardless.

 

[Prazeres]

You can’t always replicate your best performance ever.

I’ve seen all Merab’s fights and the Yan fight is the most impressive he’s ever looked in terms of cardio/pace. He blended takedowns with striking and clinch pressure perfectly, always keeping Yan reacting and guessing, and most importantly never stopping or even seeming to slow down.

But those conditions aren’t perfectly replicable - if Yan is healthier (both arms work) and he has a 30% bigger cage to move around those entries and positions might not be as available. Merab also might not be able to hit that peak output anymore - almost 35, 4 weight cuts/champ camps in a year, etc.

Maybe he chose to stand more against Cory or maybe Cory made him stand more or maybe both. Based on all his post-Yan fights in a large cage we’ve seen a drop off in output comparatively.

I guess we will find out tomorrow night for certain if the intangibles of circumstance matter or if Merab is just a perfect nightmare matchup for Yan regardless.

Merab only has to be 3 fifth as good as he was that day to win the fight

 

[geardo]

This thread is getting bumped after Saturday

I love the TS eats crow thread bumps

 

[Here's Johnny!]

Perception, legacy, popularity, relevancy.

Something about two men fighting it out in an octagon somehow means these can all change an incredible amount from just one fight.


Merab is currently easily the bantamweight goat. What happens when Yan beats him, then goes on to beat O Malley and a top contender.

Mark my words. I put it here now. In a years time we will be talking about Yan as the BW goat.

I think Merab needs a couple more to pass Dominic Cruz.... I think Yan would need like 5 in a row to get there

 

[jeff7b9]

You can’t always replicate your best performance ever.

I’ve seen all Merab’s fights and the Yan fight is the most impressive he’s ever looked in terms of cardio/pace. He blended takedowns with striking and clinch pressure perfectly, always keeping Yan reacting and guessing, and most importantly never stopping or even seeming to slow down.

But those conditions aren’t perfectly replicable - if Yan is healthier (both arms work) and he has a 30% bigger cage to move around those entries and positions might not be as available. Merab also might not be able to hit that peak output anymore - almost 35, 4 weight cuts/champ camps in a year, etc.

Maybe he chose to stand more against Cory or maybe Cory made him stand more or maybe both. Based on all his post-Yan fights in a large cage we’ve seen a drop off in output comparatively.

I guess we will find out tomorrow night for certain if the intangibles of circumstance matter or if Merab is just a perfect nightmare matchup for Yan regardless.

One aspect I haven't seen you discuss:

Yan is short and mostly boxes. Aka... he doesn't naturally force there to be as much distance to cover to get inside for a TD or clinch.



I could see the potentially false assumption: Merab needed 50 TD attempts to beat Petr before and now Merab is older and Yan has more room (more room I agree helps yan)
So ... maybe Merab can't replicate that performance.
which may by true .... but does he need to?


But what if:


The 50 TD attempts, Merabs highest is BECAUSE

Yan starts slow allowing Merab to build momentum and set traps and timing based hesitation tricks with feints and level changes

and

Yan is smaller and uses primarily short range weapons, thus Merab has perfect matchup to span TDs


Also Merab won the first fight 50-45. Aka 5-0

So the gap Yan has to close isn't 48--47 and he just has to flip one round relative to last time.


I don't see Yan winning R1 dude to slow start.

should that be the case he needs 3/4

I wouldn't favor him in R2.

If he loses 1-2 he needs to sweep 345 or finish. Both tall order



What is the path to the W ?

?? Hope Merab is not Merab and got old in the last 62 days??


____________________


I expect:


Yan does better than 1st fight but not enough. .. moral victory.

Merab feels the effect of the 4th weight cut and tires out... BUT Yan is tired too. So maybe there are a few competitive rounds but still a

48-47, 48-47, 49-46 merab type outcome.


Or 48-47, 49-46, 47-48 where you have a "if you gave Yan EVERY swing round you can make a case"

 

[RockyLockridge]

. It's going to take almost suicidal self-belief in his abilities, most fighters can't fight like that (in a way where they know they are going to gas later), but perhaps a man of Yan's hard character is willing to die on his sword because that's what it's going to take in terms of mentality to beat Merab.

I agree, What yan REALLY needs to do is enter the void, Visual the win and manifest destiny. He needs to throw with intent and truly believe it is enough. as if it were prophecy that he will win. there is no half stepping for him here, if he doesn't fully commit to winning the fight via finish early, He can kiss the win and probably his title days good bye

 

[RockyLockridge]

I don't see Yan winning R1 dude to slow start.


Or 48-47, 49-46, 47-48 where you have a "if you gave Yan EVERY swing round you can make a case"

Theses are two paths to him winning.

the slow start is something he absolutely can change and control. getting older and doing multiple fights/weight cuts in a year having an effect on your game is far less controllable. Yan needs to bring it. and he needs to do it right away

this is merab's 5th fight of the year. if there is any time he may slip, It's now.

 

[wrb]

I don't mind Yan, I really don't. But his fans some of the most deranged fans in the UFC however that's another story.

Look anything can happen but Yan is small, has short arms and a high guard plus did the worst against Merab compared to to the last 4 opponents Merab faced. Maybe I guess. He better not waste a round "downloading" or keep his guard real high. Honestly, I might actually bet merab gets the KO on the feet because even now I am kinda doubting him and always get proven so wrong.

 

[WoozyFailGuy]

Very cool data.

If I were to gamble... I would be looking to identify situations where the odds were not an accurate representation of the likely outcome, perhaps due to sentimental reasons or other bias.

A VERY interesting aspect of this fight, that if you were looking to justify why Yan could win... imo... this would be a big clue.


This is Merabs 4th title fight this year. 4th camp. 4th weight cut

He is on a short turnaround and rumored to have had a tough weight cut. 63 days between title fights is a crazy short turnaround for a champ in this era.
Average is about 9 months, this is 2.

All of that bodes poorly for a man whose success is dependent on extremely high, off the bell curve, levels of stamina and output.

We are blessed to have Merab and Poatan, two champs whose activity puts every other one to shame.

Merab only has to be 3 fifth as good as he was that day to win the fight

Math checks out

 

[TheMMAnalyst]

Merab only has to be 3 fifth as good as he was that day to win the fight

That's a version of MMA Math I haven't heard since Usman said that was only 30%.

 

[richardjohnson]

Yan's one of my favourite fighters so maybe I'm a bit biased but it would be a pretty cool story if he manages to get the belt back. A few years ago he was on top of the world and looking like he could go on a real good run of defenses, then he blasts Aljo with that knee and it basically turned his career upside down. At one point he was 1-4 on a three fight skid and completely written off, now he's on a pretty good streak again and about to fight for the title. It's not too often that kind of thing happens, once a champion loses their belt they usually don't manage to work their way back up.

 

[prime_lobov]

Peter Yan just barely got by Marcus Magoo, a 47-year-old unranked Small Soldiers cosplayer. He also showed some of the worst fight IQ of all time losing his belt via DQ. Judges also hate him based on his robbery loss to O’Nalley. No way is he going to be competitive against Merab. Legit zero chance he wins.

 

[Paolo Delutis]

View attachment 1124356

Possibly.... the best use of this GIF on sherdog

 

[TheMMAnalyst]

One aspect I haven't seen you discuss:

Yan is short and mostly boxes. Aka... he doesn't naturally force there to be as much distance to cover to get inside for a TD or clinch.



I could see the potentially false assumption: Merab needed 50 TD attempts to beat Petr before and now Merab is older and Yan has more room (more room I agree helps yan)
So ... maybe Merab can't replicate that performance.
which may by true .... but does he need to?


But what if:


The 50 TD attempts, Merabs highest is BECAUSE

Yan starts slow allowing Merab to build momentum and set traps and timing based hesitation tricks with feints and level changes

and

Yan is smaller and uses primarily short range weapons, thus Merab has perfect matchup to span TDs


Also Merab won the first fight 50-45. Aka 5-0

So the gap Yan has to close isn't 48--47 and he just has to flip one round relative to last time.


I don't see Yan winning R1 dude to slow start.

should that be the case he needs 3/4

I wouldn't favor him in R2.

If he loses 1-2 he needs to sweep 345 or finish. Both tall order



What is the path to the W ?

?? Hope Merab is not Merab and got old in the last 62 days??


____________________


I expect:


Yan does better than 1st fight but not enough. .. moral victory.

Merab feels the effect of the 4th weight cut and tires out... BUT Yan is tired too. So maybe there are a few competitive rounds but still a

48-47, 48-47, 49-46 merab type outcome.


Or 48-47, 49-46, 47-48 where you have a "if you gave Yan EVERY swing round you can make a case"

I've talked about it in another thread, Yan is giving up reach to pretty much every opponent in the division, even Merab has an inch of reach on him (though Yan is an inch taller). They are pretty much the same size though, I don't think there is much difference between them.

Yan has got an amazing variety of kicks and knees but he clearly prefers to box, not surprising since he trained to be a boxer as a youth so that's kind of his true "base" of MMA. And since he doesn't have that reach in MMA he is very hesitant to build behind his jab unless he can get the opponent backing up. A fighter like Volk is the same height but has almost 6 more inches of reach, so he can set-up the jab in a lot of more positions without fearing the counter or closing so much distance that he puts himself out of position. One of Yan's weaknesses is that he isn't able to out-fight because he doesn't have the build/style to effectively keep range, so he's at his best when he's all the way in (pocket-boxing) or all the way out (kicking range).

If you watch the first fight Merab is going for a takedown 10 seconds into the fight. Yan doesn't have the time to start slow, he is already being put on the back foot and being reactive, Merab immediately has the initiative and since Yan doesn't have space to move into he doesn't really have time to get a feel for the timing/rhythm.

The path to victory for Yan is kind of two-fold; figure out how to seize the initiative and stylistically fight against type, which is difficult but not impossible. I'd say Yan needs to make sure he doesn't get drawn into defending takedowns without punishing them and needs to be attacking on resets (almost all body/legs early). He shut down the vast majority of takedowns in their first fight, he never got controlled for much length outside of like 2 sequences, but he got little of his own damage off except for single shots sporadically placed throughout. He should be trying to not only avoid/defend takedowns but look to take some chances - step/flying knees on level changes, elbows on clinch breaks, switch kicks to body/head. If he cuts or hurts Merab that might completely alter Merab's approach and ability to effectively feint and pressure. It's certainly a tall order, Merab might not give a shit or recover quick, but he's only human so there is a point where his body/brain will react intuitively to damage.

Suga had a better 5th round than Merab in their first fight and hurt him to the body. Umar was winning the 5th round until the last minute when he got his shit clocked. Cory arguably won the 4th round. It's not like Merab is some unstoppable machine that never makes mistakes or slows down, it's just he does a lot of wrestler-tactics that show dominance (i.e. pushing into and grinding on you with his forehead, knee strikes to the thighs from waist-cinch, making you hand-fight) and drain opponents gas-tanks.

I just think the "texture" of the fight will look incredibly different with all the intangibles - Yan having more space to move = less pressure against the cage (can move laterally and have space/time to make reads and set-up counters better), Yan having experienced Merab's pace/pressure/awkward rhythm so has an idea of what to expect, Merab possibly slowing down due to age/consecutive camps + weight cuts/cumulative damage + wear & tear, Merab becoming more confident in his hands and trying to box/brawl more...all impossible to predict factors that could dramatically alter things not even taking into account tactical and strategical adjustments.

I can definitely see Merab winning a 48-47 or 49-46 doing much of what he did last time if Yan doesn't make adjustments, but if he does I don't see any reason he can't give Merab fits in spots. I expect an incredibly competitive fight regardless of the winner.