After Merab v Yan you will be shocked how fast MMA changes

Theses are two paths to him winning.

the slow start is something he absolutely can change and control. getting older and doing multiple fights/weight cuts in a year having an effect on your game is far less controllable.


Yan needs to bring it. and he needs to do it right away

I agree. Has he shown improvement with the slow starting issue in his 3 fight win streak?

Scorecards show he lost R1 vs Song Yadong and Marcus McGhee.




this is merab's 5th fight of the year. if there is any time he may slip, It's now.
I agree.

He is daring to be great... and in do8ng so he is taking a substantial risk and potentially putting himself out there with wear and tear and insufficient recovery time.


And Petr Yan is legit. He was the guy who I thought was going to run the show for a long time. His knee to Aljo has got to be on a short list for the biggest dumbass self sabatoging moments in MMA.
 
I agree, What yan REALLY needs to do is enter the void, Visual the win and manifest destiny. He needs to throw with intent and truly believe it is enough. as if it were prophecy that he will win. there is no half stepping for him here, if he doesn't fully commit to winning the fight via finish early, He can kiss the win and probably his title days good bye

It's a "no half-measures" scenario - by trying to fight in a way where you are confident you won't gas you give away the initiative by letting your opponent outwork you and make you reactive.

Reminds of the movie "Gattaca" - how do you win a swimming race far into the ocean? By not saving anything for the swim back. Yan needs to fight early like he doesn't care if he there isn't anything left for the swim back.

If you gas by pushing the pace and going for it early and often then so be it, but by trying to save something for later with the assumption you can turn around the fight you are really hoping for something miraculous to happen instead of taking the initiative to make it happen.
 
so you doubled down on it too, made multiple threads on it. if you say it enough it will become true?
 
It's a "no half-measures" scenario - by trying to fight in a way where you are confident you won't gas you give away the initiative by letting your opponent outwork you and make you reactive.

Reminds of the movie "Gattaca" - how do you win a swimming race far into the ocean? By not saving anything for the swim back. Yan needs to fight early like he doesn't care if he there isn't anything left for the swim back.

If you gas by pushing the pace and going for it early and often then so be it, but by trying to save something for later with the assumption you can turn around the fight you are really hoping for something miraculous to happen instead of taking the initiative to make it happen.

I am watching the Countdown episode.

There is an interesting section about 10 minutes in with Merab driving his new fancy and clearly extremely expensive car, talking about wanting to treat himself, talking about sponsors and all the lavish shit that goes along with being champ.

The recipe is definitely there.


But.. to borrow a phrase..

"I don't think that is the cloth from which Merab Dvalishvili is cut"


Yan may push him to the break. But merab will push back
Having great cardio... and granted I never had merab cardio.... but having really great cardio gives you a certain amount of ability to just continue thru the fatigue that m8ght otherwise have been a stopping point. And merab thus far has seemed mentally tough.

If things aren't going swimmingly... do you expect Merab to accept defeat and potentially ride to a losing scorecard, or do you think he digs deep and finds a way?


Merab and Petr both looked fine to me at the weight cut.
You never know precisely ... but no red flags there.



I think now - very close fight.
I'm guessing multiple swing rounds.

I still think Merab wins, but it could be close enough to be controversial.

I agree now that the 4:1 favorite line is wrong. Worth betting.
 
Last edited:
I am watching the Countdown episode.

There is an interesting section about 10 minutes in with Merab driving his new fancy and clearly extremely expensive car, talking about wanting to treat himself, talking about sponsors and all the lavish shit that goes along with being champ.

The recipe is definitely there.


But.. to borrow a phrase..

"I don't think that is the cloth from which Merab Dvalishvili is cut"


Yan may push him to the break. But merab will push back
Having great cardio... and granted I never had merab cardio.... but having really great cardio gives you a certain amount of ability to just continue thru the fatigue that m8ght otherwise have been a stopping point. And merab thus far has seemed mentally tough.

If things aren't going swimmingly... do you expect Merab to accept defeat and potentially ride to a losing scorecard, or do you think he digs deep and finds a way?


Merab and Petr both looked fine to me at the weight cut.
You never know precisely ... but no red flags there.



I think now - very close fight.
I'm guessing multiple swing rounds.

I still think Merab wins, but it could be close enough to be controversial.

I agree now that the 4:1 favorite line is wrong. Worth betting.

That's why the context of "how the fight happens" is so important.

If it turns into Yan immediately constantly backing up and getting clinched/defending takedowns then the cardio becomes weaponized, since Yan's technique, power and gas-tank will break down earlier than Merab's. But if Yan can hit some pivots, maybe play a different guard than a high-guard shell, and become more of a matador that immediately pressures after the defense and is hitting Merab to the body and legs early and often things could change fast.

Cardio doesn't mean your liver doesn't get shut down when you get ripped to the body. Cardio doesn't mean your legs don't stop working properly when you eat savage kicks to the calf/knee/thigh. Cardio doesn't mean you don't become off-balance and discombobulated when your brain bounces around the inside of your skull from a shot to the temple.

It's an amazing X-Factor to have cardio, since it lets you do more of everything and with chin, fearless aggression, and a good blend of techniques (feints/strikes/takedowns) you can build unstoppable momentum that takes away your opponents power, heart, and gas tank. That's kind of the Merab blue-print to success, it's blending everything to keep you guessing and doing it non-stop to exhaust you mentally and physically. But it doesn't stop your body from breaking down or having bad reactions to damage, that's an inherent aspect of fighting where it doesn't matter how much cardio or heart you have.

A well-placed shot can turn a fight on a dime in a moment, no matter the opponent.
 
Yan on a technical and athletic level is actually probably the best opponent to beat him - he does have impressive power (he's hurt almost every opponent he's fought) and the ability to fight in all phases (pressuring/countering/pocket/clinch), plus his wrestling and grappling are pretty high-level and he does have great cardio (no one has Merab cardio though).

The problem with Yan is stylistic, he is a "downloader" that likes to let opponents show their cards first so he can counter, then once opponents get countered they let him pressure and he can start to build set-ups and momentum. That doesn't work with Merab, if you wait to download he'll just be coming at you non-stop with all types of feints, strikes, takedowns, and you are reacting and defending. It becomes an instinctively reactive fight where you lose the initiative and it's almost impossible to gain it back.

The way to beat Merab is to push him backwards and make him the one reacting, which is easier said than done. The blueprint is probably setting a high-pace yourself to force the fight in the middle and look to land lots of body/leg strikes early, don't even worry about head-shots except as counters on knees/uppercuts. Everything should be about putting out a ton of volume and not letting Merab push you back and force you to think about what he might do next.

Yan needs to fight against type here and almost be disrespectfully aggressive, which is risky because that's where you can get clobbered with a counter or give away a cheap takedown. But he'll lose if he just tries to wait and counter early, because he'll start digging a grave of cardio that will make his output and technique progressively wilt. As that happens landing fight-changing shots decrease in probability and output decreases, so you can't win a war of attrition or land a shot that takes away Merab's cardio (i.e. liver shot) or cripple a leg with low kicks

It's going to have to be a "gambit" from Yan to win his fight - just go hard and fast early and often as much as possible, assume you won't win a decision so don't try to draw out the fight and use perfect counter-tactics. It's going to take almost suicidal self-belief in his abilities, most fighters can't fight like that (in a way where they know they are going to gas later), but perhaps a man of Yan's hard character is willing to die on his sword because that's what it's going to take in terms of mentality to beat Merab.

Perfectly analyzed, perfectly said 👌
 
Bump. Amazingly accurate. Merab was the worst BW champ ever imo
 
This thread has "welcome to the machida era" vibes
 

Forum statistics

Threads
1,280,173
Messages
58,263,295
Members
175,986
Latest member
BloodandBeer
Back
Top