If Tony knows what he's doing (which I think he does), Joe is a transitional champ while they put the finishing touches on Swerve.
It wouldn't surprise me if MJF takes a hiatus now to rest and "contemplate" his next contract. He'll be back, announce he re-signed (ALA Bret Hart in 96) and he's after Adam Cole, who can heal as well for the 3-4 months MJF is off tv.
I would have MJF come out Wednesday, do a promo against Cole and walk out citing burn out and his only friend turning on him. Swerve beats Joe for the title on the same night. MJF returns at Revolution during the Sting retirement show.
AEW is in a seriously big transition period.