McGregor / Porier & Adesanya / Blachowicz - odds

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From TAB New Zealand...

Odds elsewhere probably pretty similar.

Interesting.

If I had to pick winners its definitely Conor and Izzy.

But at those odds Porier and Blachowicz look extremely under repped

Conor Dustin.png jan izzy.png
 
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Lol. Ironically all the "dumb casuals" would instantly pick Mcgregor and Adesanya.
It takes somebody more knowledgeable of the sport to see ways Poirier or Blachowicz can win, but good one.
Blachowicz has a chance albeit slim imo cos he's a 205er and Poirier has a decent chance if he survives late into the 2nd. But I'm a dumb casual.
 
JonJonesLost3times said:
Lol. Ironically all the "dumb casuals" would instantly pick Mcgregor and Adesanya.
It takes somebody more knowledgeable of the sport to see ways Poirier or Blachowicz can win, but good one.
Blachowicz has a chance albeit slim imo cos he's a 205er and Poirier has a decent chance if he survives late into the 2nd. But I'm a dumb casual.
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edited it bro, fair point. I've firmly believed in the past that fighters with longer odds where gonna win.

EG: Henderson vs Boestch
 
I think Adesanya should be a heavier favorite imo... Jan is absolutely out of his league lol, an embarrassment for the LHW division missing Jones.


<JonesLaugh>
 
I think YOU are confused. MMA odds are based on bets placed, not "we think Poirier has a 30% chance to win".
I guarantee you there is no other fighter in the sport that gets betted on by casuals more than Mcgregor, just look at the odds of him V Mayweather and he had 0% chance to win, nevermind 30%.
You think that many casuals are betting on Poirier? No chance. It's fans of the sport who know Poirier and are predicting him to win based on numerous variables.
It's like saying casuals predicted Chris Weidman to beat Anderson Silva, or casuals predicted Teofimo Lopez to beat Lomachenko. No. Casuals go for the favourite, it's the ones with knowledge of the sport and knowledge of the underdog that predict them to win.
Saying only dumb casuals predict Poirier to win is stupid as fuck.
 
JonJonesLost3times said:
I think YOU are confused. MMA odds are based on bets placed, not "we think Poirier has a 30% chance to win".
I guarantee you there is no other fighter in the sport that gets betted on by casuals more than Mcgregor, just look at the odds of him V Mayweather and he had 0% chance to win, nevermind 30%.
You think that many casuals are betting on Poirier? No chance. It's fans of the sport who know Poirier and are predicting him to win based on numerous variables.
It's like saying casuals predicted Anderson Silva to beat Chris Weidman, or casuals predicted Teofimo Lopez to beat Lomachenko. No. Casuals go for the favourite, it's the ones with knowledge of the sport and knowledge of the underdog that predict them to win.
Saying only dumb casuals predict Poirier to win is stupid as fuck.
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haha, what happened with Izzy vs Costa then, even with Izzy being the existing favourite he was massively under repped. If you knew, you knew.

"Fans" still let emotions get in the way. Look at this board. Its full of "fans" who will understate Conors ability based on his out of ring antics. Who will overstate other fighters ability or results of fights based on them being "nice guys"

If you take emotions out of it, its always purely on: how good is the fighter, how good is the opponent, what is the matchup like and what in my experience are the chances either fighter wins. Then you compare this to the assessed odds. And if they are different then you have an opportunity.

This is very different to just picking the winner. 68% of the time in MMA the favorite wins. But the pay out is commensurate with this. If you picked the favorite everytime, you would lose money.

Thats why I have said, in this post, the odds at 3.1:1 are out of sync with these guys chances. The are the underdogs, but possibly they are overstated as underdogs.
 
Adesanya is no Mcgregor in terms of popularity and Mcgregor has already koed poirier.
Adesanya has been rocked and dropped by smaller, lesser hitting guys than Costa so Adesanya wasn't a big favourite in that fight, I personally had no idea who would win, I wouldn't consider anyone a real underdog heading into that and the odds reflected it.
It's understandable how Mcgregor is a bigger favourite in this fight also because Costa is significantly more dangerous than Poirier and was unbeaten.
In this fight I just don't see many casuals picking Poirier to win was my point.
 
Remember that the odds generally reflect where the money has gone,particularly with a fight this big.

Initially you might think that Adesanya ought to be the heavier favourite, however the reason he is equal to Mcgregor is probably because he is moving up a weight and because Conor already has a fast KO victory versus Dustin.
 
I swear, without looking at the odds I guessed McGregor 1.33, it seems just about right. Probably there's little value on Poirier, but not much. Some casuals are also Conor haters so they bet against him and negate Conor's casuals, so odds are not skewed
 
I think Blach will win, so those are enticing odds. Conor/Doostin is a rough one, I'm kind of rooting for Poirier, but it's a shit match up for him.
 
The odds are always ridiculous when one fighter is super popular because it reflects the way fans are betting. Fans bet on fighters they like
 
Jan is gonna get murked, that’s not surprising.

Dustin IMO I’d very overlooked. Casuals are looking at a fight 6 years ago thinking the same thing will happen. It’s like looking at JDS/Cain 1 and thinking “oh yeah JDS is gonna for sure kill Cain in the rematch”.
 
Jan is a live dog.... but we are talking fighting Style Bender. The Conor odds are about where people expect them... Could be some money to be made, all it takes is a wild strike or submission in combat sports.
 
If Poirier follows the blueprint to beat McGregor, he wins. That blueprint is to wrestle/grapple with him for 2 rounds, wear on him, clinch up and throw elbows, cover his mouth, make him carry your weight. Then turn up the heat in rounds 3, 4, and 5 and go for the KO/submission when he's been beaten down.

McGregor has a way of making fighters tense up in the moment though and forget their plans. If Poirier tries to make a point and goes hogwild with the striking in round 1, he could get his lights put out again. And we know if Herb Dean is the ref he'll be eager to make a stoppage in favor of McGregor at the first chance.

So it's a tough one.
 
DivineMind said:
If Poirier follows the blueprint to beat McGregor, he wins. That blueprint is to wrestle/grapple with him for 2 rounds, wear on him, clinch up and throw elbows, cover his mouth, make him carry your weight. Then turn up the heat in rounds 3, 4, and 5 and go for the KO/submission when he's been beaten down.

McGregor has a way of making fighters tense up in the moment though and forget their plans. If Poirier tries to make a point and goes hogwild with the striking in round 1, he could get his lights put out again. And we know if Herb Dean is the ref he'll be eager to make a stoppage in favor of McGregor at the first chance.

So it's a tough one.
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here's the problem, for dustin to score a takedown, he needs to not get knocked out first
 
tripleo said:
here's the problem, for dustin to score a takedown, he needs to not get knocked out first
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This kinda BS was spewed before the Khabib fight... come on. McGregor's left hand is not going to stop a takedown. His TDD and reflexes will. If McGregor is swinging while Poirier shoots in he's going to get taken down immediately.
 
JonJonesLost3times said:
Lol. Ironically all the "dumb casuals" would instantly pick Mcgregor and Adesanya.
It takes somebody more knowledgeable of the sport to see ways Poirier or Blachowicz can win, but good one.
Blachowicz has a chance albeit slim imo cos he's a 205er and Poirier has a decent chance if he survives late into the 2nd. But I'm a dumb casual.
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