Since we're past the trade deadline, I think it's a real interesting year in terms of who can win the championship this year. I think there's a lot of potential for upsets especially in the West where the top 8 teams all have quite a bit of talent. Two cents on teams in play-in or better position right now:
The tiers (no order within the tiers):
Top championship tier: (would not be at all surprised if they won the chip).
Bucks + Giannis and Dame can get it done if they play to potential and tighten up their defense (which I think they can), Lopez is a huge asset too
Denver + still has the championship core of last year, worried about the bench and friendly rigged. I have less optimism for them repeating now than I did at the beginning of the year.
Clippers + has the maturity and talent, been as good as anyone after finally hitting their stride
Likely to win some rounds and decent chance to win the championship:
Celtics + depth of talent, home court
76ers (with a healthy Embiid) + can picture Embiid finally pulling through if he stays healthy. They go down many buckets with no Embiid.
Timberwolves + have depth, teams that have never won are tough to picture winning it all, but I think they are a very strong team this year. Had an early exit last year, but they got better and last year they lost to the eventual champs - no shame in that.
Can win some rounds, quite unlikely to win the championship:
Suns + the Durant/Booker/Beal combo has potential to go far if healthy; debated them being in the prior group but I don't think they can elevate their defense in the playoffs.
OKC Thunder + well rounded but a young team, question if they will have the tenacity and maturity to pull through when it matters most - I am skeptical
Dallas Mavs + Luka Legend is amazing, but is there consistency enough on both ends of the court for the Mavs to win it all
Expect to be competitive against most anyone, but hard to imagine winning more than one round:
New York Knicks + everyone loves a New York story, but not sold as good as their (recent when healthy) success indicated
Miami Heat + asking too much of playoff Jimmy to keep winning series on the road as a low seed
Sacramento Kings + not going to be a picnic for anyone, but not feeling them as deep or clutch enough to go deep
LA Lakers + would need a lot of friendly rigged help, and two legends need to be elite
Cleveland Cavs + my darkhorse last year flopped pretty bad. Don't see much of a reason to think this year would be any different.
Expect to not make it out of the first round even if they get in:
Pacers, Magic, Bulls, Hawks, Pels, Warriors