Elections 2020 Democratic Primary Thread: The Announcements

[Lead]

I think his best bet is to avoid the more progressive policies right now. Reparations aren't going to gain anyone any traction; Democrats don't need to fight for the vote of people that want reparations. They got it; it isn't going to the Republicans (there's something to be said about turnout, but I'll get to that). I think he needs to focus on the "return the normal" vote. He'll be pandering for a time that never existed, granted, similar to "Making America Great Again". But it will resonate. It will resonate with people who want the media to be about something besides politics; mainstream media, social media, TV shows, movies and music alike. I think he can pick up more votes along the center that way than he can backing hard-progressive platforms - especially in the primaries where hardline progressives will be voting for the more progressing-appearing candidates anyway regardless of platform.

The question is if he can get through the primaries that way. I'm still registered D, so he'll likely get my vote out of the others. Hopefully we'd see more center-left people going that route. But when it think of Beto, Harris or Warren, Biden stands out as a stronger candidate in the GE.

The online propaganda about his weirdness with kids will be strong. Some of it will be countered with Trump's own weird behavior with regards to his own daughter, but he (Trump) can weather the criticism storm because it's expected. But that will mostly be eaten up by people who have already dedicated their vote to Trump. I'm not sure it will have a measurable impact on Biden; not this day and age.

You somewhat have to figure out the lanes, the amount of support within each lane, and then divide the number of candidates to come up with some ideas who has good or bad chances. I honestly don't think he would hurt as much running closer to the center as he wouldn't compete with an many candidates there. Like you said, it's a matter of how large is that voter pool and will a candidate eventually consolidate on the progressive side or will the field crowd itself out and be unable to compete.

 

[Trotsky]

Joe is dead in the water.

At this point, Biden's candidacy is far less offensive to my sensibilities than O'Rourke's. Biden is a centrist, but at least he's not (yet) seeking to brand himself as a part of the young left wing movement within the party/country. O'Rourke getting mentioned alongside firebrands like AOC and Ilhan Omar (both of whom are endlessly impressive and have formidable moral and political constitution) instead of being more accurately portrayed as a more likable and less policy-fluent Cory Booker is troubling.

The idea that this generation's tide could ultimately be used to lift the boat of a charismatic centrist is really depressing.

 

[Anung Un Rama]

At this point, Biden's candidacy is far less offensive to my sensibilities than O'Rourke's. Biden is a centrist, but at least he's not (yet) seeking to brand himself as a part of the young left wing movement within the party/country.

My point about Joe being dead in the water is based on Joe's record and the state of the country. He has no chance. He will get smashed in the primaries, and if not then in the general based on his record and the nauseating videos of his inappropriate touching of children. He's done.

To you point, I find Joe to be the more offensive candidate because he has a record that is shockingly bad. That being said, the idea that Beto might actually be embraced as a legitimate candidate is even more offensive because he's an empty suit. It would be very telling (and depressing) if Beto can get far on pure platitude power. We might be saying the same thing?

edit: back to Joe, I felt then and I feel it now, that Biden would have destroyed Trump in 2016, but not now; his personality was a perfect counter to Trump (assuming of course he had a competent ground game).

O'Rourke getting mentioned alongside firebrands like AOC and Ilhan Omar (both of whom are endlessly impressive and have formidable moral and political constitution) instead of being more accurately portrayed as a more likable and less policy-fluent Cory Booker is troubling.

The idea that this generation's tide could ultimately be used to lift the boat of a charismatic centrist is really depressing.

Agreed.

 

[Anung Un Rama]

 

[DIDM]

Trump by hilarious nicknames

 

[kpt018]

Watch Senator Warren CNN Town Hall




Elizabeth Warren gives a full-throated endorsement for reparations at CNN town hall
Vox

Oof. Reparations is a political loser imo.

 

[Son of Jamin]

Hide your kids
Hide your wife’s
Biden is biding his time

 

[Cagecide]

Former Vice phile hasn't a prayer.

 

[waiguoren]

Beto is going to demolish these cans. He's got "it" and is the exact candidate to continually generate interest and win back the areas that Clinton botched

Old Man Biden missed his chance last election and Warren never learned how to be likeable to the general public. It's Beto's time

No way. Let's have an AV bet on this.

 

[waiguoren]

Oof. Reparations is a political loser imo.

Isn't it funny to watch the candidates dance around the issue? Can't come out in favor or they are screwed in the general. Can't come out in opposition or risk alienating the nutjobs in the base, thereby risking a primary defeat.

 

[Jack V Savage]

Isn't it funny to watch the candidates dance around the issue? Can't come out in favor or they are screwed in the general. Can't come out in opposition or risk alienating the nutjobs in the base, thereby risking a primary defeat.

That happens in all primaries for both parties, though I think the MSM (and voters) tend to be harder on Democrats for inconsistencies.

 

[WarDosAnjos]

As someone who will probably end up voting Democrat, really wish this clown wouldnt run.

 

[waiguoren]

That happens in all primaries for both parties, though I think the MSM (and voters) tend to be harder on Democrats for inconsistencies.

I agree with the first part. Not sure about the second part.

 

[Jack V Savage]

I agree with the first part. Not sure about the second part.

Just riffing here, but did people notice that Trump did the opposite in 2016? In the primary, he actually ran as a left-wing Republican on economic issues (promised *increased* progressiveness in taxes and no cuts to entitlements, plus a healthcare plan that would cover *more* people) and kept his right-wing credentials by going really heavy on right-wing identity politics. In the general, he pretty much kept to the identity politics and added a bunch of crazy smears of his opponent, plus a lot on trying to divide the left. In office, he's been a typical Republican, though with far worse-than-typical incompetence and unprecedented corruption.

 

[ultramanhyata]

Biden's claim that he is the "most progressive" candidate of anyone currently running for the democratic nomination is as bold an attempt at gaslighting as any claim Trump has yet made about either himself or the state of the nation. I despise the pathological liar Trump but this call out needs to be made.

 

[ultramanhyata]

Just riffing here,

 

[Anung Un Rama]

His transition to a guitar god is off to a decent start, too.

 

[waiguoren]

2020 presidential hopeful Delaney: Democrats made a mistake not supporting Obama on TPP

“My brand is really solving problems, bipartisanship is kind of a means to an end. If you want to actually get things done in this country, you have to find common ground,” Delaney said on Wednesday. “If you want to work on building a better future, you’ve got to find common ground.”

Delaney told FOX Business’ Connell McShane Opens a New Window. he would roll back the cuts in the last tax reform bill, and address the “huge loophole” with the federal capital-gains and personal-income tax rates.

“I think it’s ridiculous that people who invest for a living are in many ways paying half of what workers do in terms of their tax rate. It’s an outdated concept.”

He voiced support for the “Buffett Rule,” part of a tax plan proposed by former President Barack Obama in 2011. The rule, inspired by Berkshire Hathaway CEO Warren Buffet Opens a New Window. , would apply a minimum tax rate of 30 percent on individuals making more than one million dollars a year.

Delaney also said he would move the corporate tax rate up to 27 or 28 percent.

“Thirty-five percent was too high, the business community wanted 25 percent, it was cut to 21 percent, no one even asked for 21 percent,” he said.

Delaney is hoping to set himself apart, casting himself as a free-trader. He criticized his colleagues for not supporting Obama on The Trans-Pacific Partnership.

“I thought it was good economic policy, it was very good geo-political policy,” he said. “I think Democrats are moving. I think they see the President as a nationalist and this notion of engaging around the world economically, diplomatically, etc. I think is key to our success from a foreign policy standpoint.”

While back at home, a growing number of 2020 candidates, like Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders (I), Sen. Kamala Harris (D-Calif.) and Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) have endorsed “Medicare-for-All,” Delaney outlined a different plan.

“My plan creates Universal healthcare, but you have options,” he said. “And you pay for that by getting rid of the corporate deductibility of health care.”

https://www.foxbusiness.com/politic...ts-made-a-mistake-not-supporting-obama-on-tpp

 

[waiguoren]

Fact Check: Beto O'Rourke Fumbles Climate Change Stat


Democratic presidential candidate Beto O’Rourke claimed recently that climate scientists are “absolutely unanimous” that “we have no more than 12 years to take bold action” on climate change.

O’Rourke appears to be referencing a 2018 report by the U.N. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) that says global warming is likely to reach 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels between 2030 and 2052.

Democratic Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez also cited the IPCC report when she warned that “the world is gonna end in 12 years if we don’t address climate change” in January, and several news outlets have similarly covered the report, with one headline proclaiming a 12-year deadline to avert a “climate change catastrophe.”

Neither these articles nor O’Rourke’s comments are an accurate reflection of the report’s findings, though. The report “does not state that we have 12 years left to limit/stop/counteract climate change,” Jonathan Lynn, head of communications and media relations for the IPCC, told The Daily Caller in an email.

https://checkyourfact.com/2019/03/20/fact-check-beto-orourke-12-years-climate-change/

 

[Anung Un Rama]

This college student surpassed all the journalistic integrity of the MSM combined and obliterated Beto.