Elections 2020 Democratic Primary Thread: The Announcements

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waiguoren said:
Why not go at his own pace? By the standards of a normal cycle, it's still quite early. IIRC, Trump didn't announce until May 2015.
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To tease the day and then cancel it is pretty annoying. It was suppose to be by the end of April so I guess if it didn’t slip over to May, I’d be fine. I don’t know when the first GOP debate stated in 2016. There’s nothing wrong with waiting it out but the message he seems to send is he still isn’t sure what he should or shouldn’t do.
 
Lead said:
To tease the day and then cancel it is pretty annoying.
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Is that what happened? Only source I saw for Biden announcing next week was the MSNBC reporter I linked to citing anonymous sources.
 
waiguoren said:
Is that what happened? Only source I saw for Biden announcing next week was the MSNBC reporter I linked to citing anonymous sources.
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I don’t know anymore. I thought I even saw an article two weeks ago saying he would announce on Easter weekend but that didn’t happen either.
 
Lead said:
I don’t know anymore. I thought I even saw an article two weeks ago saying he would announce on Easter weekend but that didn’t happen either.
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We might have fallen for #FakeNews brah
 
Nate Silver has made repeated comments in recent days which downplay Sanders's chances of taking the nomination. The following tweet is an example. I think most of Silver's thinking on Sanders's chances is not intelligent.

 
Sanders to win nomination back up to +400 at Bookmaker.

Lots of money has come in on Buttigieg in the past few days, and he is down to +270. The market now prices him as the most likely nominee.

@Trotsky
 
waiguoren said:
Sanders to win nomination back up to +400 at Bookmaker.

Lots of money has come in on Buttigieg in the past few days, and he is down to +270. The market now prices him as the most likely nominee.

@Trotsky
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Wasn't able to deposit money into my account and don't understand/trust bitcoin. So at this point, telling me the line is just taunting.
 
Trotsky said:
Wasn't able to deposit money into my account and don't understand/trust bitcoin. So at this point, telling me the line is just taunting.
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You don't need to bet to consider the markets and their pricing. Buttigieg is now the most likely nominee according to market pricing. That's interesting.
 
Trotsky said:
Well, post the rest of the percentages, you boob
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Oh, I'm wrong. He was talking about him polling at 20%. He said say this:

To be clear, I think Sanders can win the Democratic nomination. He’s probably the 3rd- or 4th- most likely nominee, in my estimation — slightly behind Joe Biden and Kamala Harris and roughly tied with Pete Buttigieg, but ahead of everyone else. All of these candidates (and others such as Elizabeth Warren and Beto O’Rourke) have their own assets and liabilities, so I wouldn’t go to the mat if you put them in a different order.
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I tend to assume that the odds are better than any knee-jerk estimate I made myself.
 
waiguoren said:
You don't need to bet to consider the markets and their pricing. Buttigieg is now the most likely nominee according to market pricing. That's interesting.
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It will be interesting to see how it plays out. The way it see it, Sanders has about 20% of the market share locked down. I think Warren, Booker, and Harris will generate at least 5% each. O'Rourke has become so recognizable and Gillibrand's and Klobuchar's teams are so competent that I'd think that they would carve out at least 2% each. Gabbard has a small but committed base that will probably keep her floor at 1.5% or so. And the rest will get crumbs. That leaves about 55% for grabs with Biden and Buttigieg not yet accommodated for.
 
Trotsky said:
It will be interesting to see how it plays out. The way it see it, Sanders has about 20% of the market share locked down. I think Warren, Booker, and Harris will generate at least 5% each. O'Rourke has become so recognizable and Gillibrand's and Klobuchar's teams are so competent that I'd think that they would carve out at least 2% each. Gabbard has a small but committed base that will probably keep her floor at 1.5% or so. And the rest will get crumbs. That leaves about 55% for grabs with Biden and Buttigieg not yet accommodated for.
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I do not believe that Booker will get more than 5% of the total vote, and I'd be willing to have a bet on that.
 
waiguoren said:
I do not believe that Booker will get more than 5% of the total vote, and I'd be willing to have a bet on that.
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Of the total vote? No, that would require him being in the final group. But he has national name recognition, is a very effective campaigner, has decent financial backers, and should get a small bump with the black community. Right now it looks like his average poling figure is about 3.5%.
 
How long before the Bernie team gets him into the tanning booth and some veneers on those chompers...because Joe is coming in hard and he is far more marketable
usa-politics-biden.jpg
 
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