2018 Recap and Analytics, lessons learned, 2019 goals/tips etc

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GrantSorenson

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Well the year is up and it's time for a recap. Thought I'd make it since EZ is gone

Here is the link to 2017 Recap thread

http://forums.sherdog.com/threads/2017-recap-analytics.3684213/

Interested in how the year went for guys here. I'm sure we had some overall winners and overall losers. Losing EZ was a big loss. We also had others who scaled down or gave up, some just left. We definitely had some big winners like Sadistics. I only really started seriously tracking my bets and putting a lot into it in mid November and ended up 14.26 units profit according to my spreadsheet. Pretty sure I was winning on Boxing/MMA before that but blowing most of it on other sports. Coming into 2019 with a good bankroll and enthusiastic about it. I know I'm profitable on these sports but DISCIPLINE, PATIENCE and CONTROLLING GREED are my issues.

Cyborg let me down on a big payout that would have been really nice but I can't complain overall. This forum has helped quite a bit, too many good posters to mention. Everyone contributes something good in their own way. I hope it keeps going from strength to strength.

So lets hear how 2018 went, what you did, what you learned etc etc. Should be an interesting thread
 
I returned to watching MMA seriously in May of this year after 8 years following it very casually. With the exception of a few old-school fighters, I hadn't seen any matches by any fighters on a card, including most of the champions. I was also unaware of how MMA had evolved. Thus, I spent about five months just catching up.

I made a deposit in the middle of October, and now, about 11 weeks later, my bankroll has roughly tripled. (So +100 units the way most people calculate them)

I definitely feel I've improved aspects of my analysis and research as I've been researching upcoming fights, and I've also gotten better at understanding line movements and getting good prices.

There is still an ENORMOUS amount of work to do, though. Just the sheer amount of past fights and events I still have to watch is staggering, and I also need to improve my understanding of certain grappling and yes, even striking techniques. (Probably need to start training BJJ again after 9 years off too, heh)

Of course, no matter how good one's core analysis, there is still a degree of unpredictability to MMA and many variables one can't know without insider information, which I'm learning to factor in for whether and how much I bet, too.

Happy New Year to everyone here, and hope you all keep improving your own analysis and crushing the books!
 
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For any new bettors, or even seasoned ones, I highly recommend reading the betting guide by @piglord . It really helped me to see my weaknesses as written by someone else and also helped with me finally taking bankroll management seriously. Since I read that thing - I think sometime in Fall 2018 - I have been very profitable and I don't think it is a coincidence at all.

Happy New Year's and good luck in 2019.
 
Similar to Paul I have only been the casual main card spectator for the past 12 years but after crushing the kabib conor card I opened a betting account in October.

Only small money testing the waters but am currently up 52u over that period. that sounds pretty ridiculous when I say it out loud. To be fair you can take out 27u which was opportunistic bet due to bookie mistake, but still 25u would be a great return on 10u initial outlay.

I doubt I would have made a fraction of that without reading this forum. Being very light on unranked fighter knowledge I watch a lot of tape. Pair this with the immense knowledge in this forum it is a huge head start when researching and even better as a sense check to verify reads.

One problem that I did face starting out was bankroll, I had to bet my whole bankroll every event just to get enough money down, sometimes I had to wait for prelim bets to come in before I could bet on the main card. This is seriously not recommended and I have been lucky to date but now bankroll isnt so much of an issue. I like looking at how JimGunn and Sadistics (and others) layer their bets, its something I will try to emulate as my bankroll (hopefully) grows.

My biggest problem at the moment where I am leaking money is being too cute on some bets. I had 5u on Jones to win yesterday on 4 different bets and still lost it all. Seems to happen every fight night I make a silly betting mistake. I bet Holloway KO R5 but somehow forgot to bet R4 even though I thought I had (still had 2U ML), Dhiego Lima by points, Nakamura by submission. The list goes on and on where if I just put the money on ML before making prop bets, over time I would come out ahead.

Thanks to everyone for their insights and info, I hope to give more back next year.
 
I totally crushed this year. I made profit almost every event. I think the key is proper bankroll management, not betting on every fight, going heavy on 2 to 4 fights in which you are most confident. Sticking mainly to moneyline bets and single bets. And to trust your own instincts. I often still get swayed by public opinion too much, mma vivisection and some other podcasts often have great insights but they are really terrible at predicting winners so dont use it for that. I often dont watch too much tape, I think seeing 2 or 3 fights and following the sport thoroughly in general is enough to get a good feeling for handicapping fights. I dont mind to play huge favourites when they are worth their price ( cormier x 1.25 vs lewis) (jones x 1.37 vs gustafson) ( nunes vs pennigton x 1.27) (ortiz x 1.3 vs liddell) for example, but then i often parlay those fights very heavily with only 1 other fight.
 
Broe. said:
I totally crushed this year. I made profit almost every event. I think the key is proper bankroll management, not betting on every fight, going heavy on 2 to 4 fights in which you are most confident. Sticking mainly to moneyline bets and single bets. And to trust your own instincts. I often still get swayed by public opinion too much, mma vivisection and some other podcasts often have great insights but they are really terrible at predicting winners so dont use it for that. I often dont watch too much tape, I think seeing 2 or 3 fights and following the sport thoroughly in general is enough to get a good feeling for handicapping fights. I dont mind to play huge favourites when they are worth their price ( cormier x 1.25 vs lewis) (jones x 1.37 vs gustafson) ( nunes vs pennigton x 1.27) (ortiz x 1.3 vs liddell) for example, but then i often parlay those fights very heavily with only 1 other fight.
Click to expand...


Good post. I think the guys here are far more knowledgable than the youtube channel predictors also.
 
Ended the year down 3 units after being up over 100 heading into the last few events of the year.

I win more than I lose. But when I lose, I chase until I recover. Bets on fighters with no research, praying I make back what I worked for. I’ve only been doing this for a year and a half. Bankroll management is my achilles heel.
 
Larthus said:
Ended the year down 3 units after being up over 100 heading into the last few events of the year.

I win more than I lose. But when I lose, I chase until I recover. Bets on fighters with no research, praying I make back what I worked for. I’ve only been doing this for a year and a half. Bankroll management is my achilles heel.
Click to expand...

don't beat yourself up, everyone fucks up spectacularly before things finally click.
 
Larthus said:
Ended the year down 3 units after being up over 100 heading into the last few events of the year.

I win more than I lose. But when I lose, I chase until I recover. Bets on fighters with no research, praying I make back what I worked for. I’ve only been doing this for a year and a half. Bankroll management is my achilles heel.
Click to expand...

Bankroll management has also been my achilles heel for a long time. The worst part about it is being profitable in one area and then blowing those profits cheaply. My strategy now is being very tight with my units bet and do all bets pre event and don't do any bets on the night of the event. I think knowing your own weaknesses is crucial in this game. I know that I will chase if I can, if i'm live betting etc. Especially if I lost on a fluke sub or a robbery decision. Best thing for me is to just think out the bets, do tape, put them on before the event and let them all ride. Take the loss if it happens. I've had one losing week in the last 10 weeks which is easily absorbed by the winning weeks. I'm probably placing down 2k in total per weekend at the moment, including boxing bets.
 
Made out pretty well but my aim for 2019 is more thorough tracking of bets. I sparingly use betmma.tips or whatever it's called and rarely enter anything here. Need to improve this to see where I'm going wrong.

From my vague check I made about 45U for the year. Going to up it $125 for mma a unit moving forward and $75 for boxing. All other sports $25 (just degen rubbish i lose usually). Hoping to fund an overseas holiday through betting; have done this once and it's a bloody good feeling.

Let's spend more time here beating the books rather than bickering like children. I think that's a goal we can all get behind in these threads!
 
Newcomer here, I’m glad I found this forum, very knowledgeable for the most part, I casually watch mma and off instinct have made a decent amount in the 6 months I’ve started to get into this.

Started off lucky hitting a 70-1 parlay on the last James Vick card and have been learning the ropes since

I like the per unit style of betting, as one of the few issues I have is to Willy Nilly bet a random amount on fights. Will be adopting this in the new year.

Also need to dedicate myself to learn to watch serious tape, find myself relying on memory of previous fights, which has led to an error or two that was easily avoidable
Cheers boys
 
I just signed up on mmabettingtips and will be tracking my plays for the first time. I think that this will promote discipline and hold me accountable to only make well thought out plays.

I am a public school teacher in PA bringing in about 80k a year. I just finished my Masters and will be enrolling in a PhD program in the summer.

My goal with 2019 mma gambling is to profit 20K by the end of the year.

Its lofty, but why not?
 
piglord said:
yearly recap:

http://piglordmma.com/2019/01/02/how-i-won-betting-on-fights-2018/
Click to expand...

Nice write-up. To add to one of your points, I have tried very hard to find good analysts on Twitter/Youtube and listen to some of the MMA-centric podcasts others have recommended here.

They're all a waste of time.

You are much better off learning the technical aspects of each martial art yourself (practice yourself, talk/train with other martial artists, watch/read tutorials, etc.) and then applying this to a serious, meticulous study of the tape.

And like you, there are a few people here whose views I give some consideration to.
 
Won 118.65u in 2018, although in fairness I've been on a heater since July and I know people tend to overestimate sharpness and underestimate luck in spots like that. I am definitely a massive lifetime loser, but I really started taking it much more seriously during the last year by meticulously tracking my results and putting in some degree of prep before each event. I really struggle with two things: (1) I almost always put action on every fight I watch bc I am a hopeless degen; and (2) I rarely have the discipline to just stick with my pre-event picks and always end up adding shit during the event or livebetting and that is a bad habit (for me, anyway). If I'm doing really well, then I will up my bet size. If I'm doing poorly, same thing as I'm trying to make it up. Went back and reviewed by max bets from 18.
Stipe v Ngganou (W)
Rochhold v Romero (L)
Wonderboy v Till (L)
Moraes v Rivera (W)
RDA v Colby (L)
Woodley v Till (W)
Holloway v Ortega (W)
Looking back, the Rockhold and RDA bets were complete dogshit. I don't really regret max betting Wonderboy v Till.

Best event of the year for me was 228 (+24U), worst was 226 (-12U).

Best of luck to you all in 2019.
 
Personally, it was my best year to date. I think I learned any and all lessons I’ll ever need to learn with the could-have-been-a-Rolex I lost on Joanna in 2017
 
2017 Starting BR: $1200
2018 Starting BR: $7,846.47
2018 Ending BR: $64,231.67
2018 Profit: 169 units, $56,385.20

In regards to units won, I don't count this parlay
Screenshot_20180722-181019_Chrome.jpg

I hit that in August which brought my BR to about 37k, allowing me to raise the unit size to $300 and the BRs been skyrocketing since.

Been casually betting since late 2015 when I deposited $50, took about a year and a half to turn that into $1200, only started getting serious about this in 2017.

I've switched over to an extremely detailed spreadsheet for tracking this year, can't wait to get a year's worth of data in there for self analysis. Moving forward I'll be recording bets in dollar amounts rather than units, not only for tracking, but I plan to occasionally adjust the unit size from fight to fight depending on my level of read and expected variance on the fight. For the most part, $500 will be 1u.

I've noticed big PPVs have consistently been my worst events, I attribute that to fighters overperforming with what's at stake, and plan to reduce the unit size for PPVs.

You can never stop learning and evolving in this game, anyone who thinks they have it all figured out is doing themselves a disservice. I look at losses like I'm paying tuition and plan to start doing little write ups for myself on each substantial loss.

I'll be withdrawing a few thousand, leaving about 60k for my 2019 starting BR. Looking forward to another profitable year with you wonderful people, congrats to all the winners, and I hope any losers can apply what they've learned in 2019.
 
Sadistics said:
2017 Starting BR: $1200
2018 Starting BR: $7,846.47
2018 Ending BR: $64,231.67
2018 Profit: 169 units, $56,385.20

In regards to units won, I don't count this parlay
View attachment 499033

I hit that in August which brought my BR to about 37k, allowing me to raise the unit size to $300 and the BRs been skyrocketing since.

Been casually betting since late 2015 when I deposited $50, took about a year and a half to turn that into $1200, only started getting serious about this in 2017.

I've switched over to an extremely detailed spreadsheet for tracking this year, can't wait to get a year's worth of data in there for self analysis. Moving forward I'll be recording bets in dollar amounts rather than units, not only for tracking, but I plan to occasionally adjust the unit size from fight to fight depending on my level of read and expected variance on the fight. For the most part, $500 will be 1u.

I've noticed big PPVs have consistently been my worst events, I attribute that to fighters overperforming with what's at stake, and plan to reduce the unit size for PPVs.

You can never stop learning and evolving in this game, anyone who thinks they have it all figured out is doing themselves a disservice. I look at losses like I'm paying tuition and plan to start doing little write ups for myself on each substantial loss.

I'll be withdrawing a few thousand, leaving about 60k for my 2019 starting BR. Looking forward to another profitable year with you wonderful people, congrats to all the winners, and I hope any losers can apply what they've learned in 2019.
Click to expand...

OK, but how many $4 bets did you flush away before hitting that?

In all seriousness, is that screenshot framed and hanging above your gold and ivory fireplace at home?
 
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