Elections 2016 Presidential Election General Discussion

[ultramanhyata]

If Hillary's speechwriters wrote her this speech with the same message do you think she would read it?

Only if she was allowed to refer to the African American criminal element as "super predators".

 

[LucasWithLidOff]

Wow sounding like a real cuck

Nothing says cuck like making a woman your leader,

 

[ultramanhyata]

Since the Pulse nightclub massacre Trump has made some direct pitches to the gay community.

I thought it was a little creepy when he said that if he were gay, and if Donald Jr. wasn't his son, he would probably marry him.

 

[KILL KILL]

Sure here's one. Note that what I'm observing is dimininished unity, not any pro-Trump groundswell

http://www.advocate.com/election/2016/8/15/donald-trump-wants-test-muslim-immigrants-gay-equality

aaaah that last sentence is important. Many in the gay community that I know were also "Bernie Bros". So, there would be a division. That doesn't mean they'll vote for Trump. Simply by nominating Pence, Trump has shown that he does not have the best interests of the gay community in mind. That would be like black people voting for Hillary after she nominated David Duke.

 

[Gunny]

aaaah that last sentence is important. Many in the gay community that I know were also "Bernie Bros". So, there would be a division. That doesn't mean they'll vote for Trump. Simply by nominating Pence, Trump has shown that he does not have the best interests of the gay community in mind. That would be like black people voting for Hillary after she nominated David Duke.

Well that was the whole point from my first post in this thread. I'm not saying Trump is pulling the masses to his side. On the other hand I think speeches like this may be helping drive a wedge between Dems and some of their traditional voting blocks. And I don't think it's a carryover of the Bernie Bros effect either. Those guys wouldn't find his ideological litmus test for Muslims attractive and many of the commenters on that article did.

 

[LucasWithLidOff]

Don't know what it'll do to his percentage of the black vote but it will make things more interesting. Since the Pulse nightclub massacre Trump has made some direct pitches to the gay community. Check out the comments section on websites like The Advocate for articles discussing Trump. There's a lot of political infighting going on that was hardly imaginable ten months ago. I can see speechces like this one doing the same thing to the black community. If I had to guess I'd say the effect will be suppressed turnout for a lot of traditional democrat voting blocks - more so than any tangible switch in party allegiance.

He's pitching to the gay community, but he hardly sounds sincere at all. Seems he had some trouble remembering how to say LG..... BT.... Kyuuuuuu

 

[cooks1]

It probably won't increase the black vote at all.

That wasn't my question though. Do you agree with the message or not?

It was certainly one of the more 'presidential' things he has said. I will give him that. As to whether I agree with the message- of course not.

Perhaps there might be a little merit to the larger argument of 'what have the Democrats done for you lately'. But as far as the law and order and safe community parts-he demonstrates an appalling lack of even the simplest understanding of how government works. The Federal Government, the President, does not hire police in Milwaukee or Chicago. Mayors and/or Governors are responsible for that. He should confine his rebukes to the Democratic leaders running those areas. Trying to lump Hillary in with that is a big overreach.

Secondly, what he is suggesting about crime and violent crime is so woefully departed from reality that I can't grasp how even Fox News would not rake him over the coals. Crime is DOWN. Violent crime is DOWN. WAY DOWN. Violent crime is down over 25% from 2005

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news...at-is-really-going-on/?utm_term=.bf5227fc126c

There is a reason criminologists suggest caution and not drawing early conclusions from recent numbers, and there is a reason they point out that despite the recent increases in some places, crime rates continue to be lower and urban areas safer than they were in the late 1980s and early 1990s. Violent crime has been plummeting for two decades. So, even with the increases in killings in some cities last year, the Brennan Center, a law and policy institute in New York, noted that the country was still seeing “historically low levels of violence.”

So- Let's sum up. Was it better than his usual world vomit? Yes. Did it also show a grade school level of understanding about how government works? Yes. And of course it meets the very high bar Trump has set for himself in terms of the situation being several orders of magnitude removed from reality. Using the Trump grading curve he gets a solid B. But if it came out of the mouth of any other politician, it would have been a F--. Such is the world we are living in now.

 

[Gunny]

He's pitching to the gay community, but he hardly sounds sincere at all. Seems he had some trouble remembering how to say LG..... BT.... Kyuuuuuu

That's not the point I'm making. As I've said a half dozen time I don't think he's winning voters with this. I think what he's doing is dangling a very attractive carrot to certain solidly democrat interest groups which is causing many in those groups to feel disillusioned that their own party isn't offering the carrot as well.

 

[KILL KILL]

He's pitching to the gay community, but he hardly sounds sincere at all. Seems he had some trouble remembering how to say LG..... BT.... Kyuuuuuu

He's reading off a teleprompter too

 

[My Spot]

A broken clock is still right twice a day.

 

[PolishHeadlock]

And that's where you didn't pull up the link I sent you, or address this chart:

And I do have to laugh about making the TPP bigger. I'll have to ask once again, what "free trade" agreement produced more/better higher paying jobs for the manufacturing class?

The whole idea of not doing the TPP is to at least save jobs that are already here. I just can't find the logic in making another free trade deal bigger so that it would grow manufacturing jobs, when it's a fundamental truth that those jobs will go from the more economically prosperous country to the least. It makes no sense whatsoever.

Because you were asking me to look at a blog talking about economics from a guy who doesn't even respect the field.

http://www.thechicagoeconomist.com/bio.html

After 13 years of working in London and Chicago with various international investment banks and with an MBA from the University of Chicago in hand I decided it was time to repent for my sins by exiting the banking game. I chose instead to become a conduit for truth in a world where financial and public policy discourse was nothing more than promotional campaigns targeted toward the unsuspecting 'little guy' by so called PhD economists and Chief Strategy Officers.
And so with my banking career behind me I started a blog called FirstRebuttal. My objective was to provide quantitatively backed qualitative arguments to the layman on economics, markets and public policy. My research has generally been considered to be Contrarian in nature, which I consider to mean honest in nature. When I started I was an unknown analyst but my research quickly struck a cord. I joined Ron Paul's Voices of Liberty, David Stockman's Contra Club and am a regular contributor to Zerohedge. But I felt that more could be done to change the system by breaking into the educational framework and so I began teaching applied financial modeling at Marquette University (whose finance program is ranked 21st in the nation by US News & WR).
Despite attempts to turn Americans into thoughtless opiate and xanax induced zombies, I believe everyday citizens are both sophisticated enough and inclined to dig their teeth into the world of financial economics and public policy. I am an adamant proponent that doing so is a moral obligation for members of any free society. For it is the ignorance that accompanies the apathy around such topics that empowers the plutocrats to ultimately enslave future generations in twisted distortions of reality. Truth, however unpleasant and however grueling to uncover, is the cost of real freedom.

Economics
The study of economics is often mistaken for a highly mathematical subject best left to PhD academics. In reality economics is a logically intuitive subject describing the behaviour of exchange within a society, which is well suited for any acute observer. Calculus and statistics are but tools to measure direction and degrees of relatedness between stimuli and behaviour. Behaviour is a function of motivation and incentive. And so if one understands the motives and incentives then outcomes can be predicted with a high level of probability.

Also I wasn't sure what all of the charts are in relation too. Is the trade imbalance chart just the trade imbalance between the US and other NAFTA members or the total US trade imbalance?

Are you saying that NAFTA is responsible for that employment chart?

Our biggest trade imbalance is with China

http://www.cfr.org/trade/naftas-economic-impact/p15790

Research by David Autor, David Dorn, and Gordon Hanson published in January 2016 found (PDF) that competition with China had a much bigger negative impact on U.S. jobs since 2001, when China joined the WTO. Hanson, an economist and trade expert at the University of California, San Diego, says that the steepest decline in manufacturing jobs, which fell from seventeen million to eleven million between 2000 and 2010, is mostly attributable to trade with China and underlying technological changes. “China is at the top of the list in terms of the employment impacts that we found since 2000, with technology second, and NAFTA far less important,” he says.

In fact, says Hanson, NAFTA helped the U.S. auto sector compete with China. By contributing to the development of cross-border supply chains, NAFTA lowered costs, increased productivity, and improved U.S. competitiveness. This meant shedding some jobs in the United States as positions moved to Mexico, he argues, but without the pact, even more would have otherwise been lost. “Because Mexico is so close, you can have a regional industry cluster where goods can go back and forth. The manufacturing industries in the three countries can be very integrated,” he says. These sort of linkages, which have given U.S. automakers an advantage in relation to China, would be much more difficult without NAFTA’s tariff reductions and protections for intellectual property.

Edward Alden, a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, says anxiety over trade deals has grown because wages haven’t kept pace with labor productivity while income inequality has risen. To some extent, he says, trade deals have hastened the pace of these changes in that they have “reinforced the globalization of the American economy.”

Instead of lobbying against TPP I think people should be lobbying for better Trade Adjustment Assistance (TAA) programs. I also think a big piece of the pie is the way we fund and approach public education. Panamaican has a good thread on how the funding formula is bad for poor school districts (another topic I know).

http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES3000000001


As far protecting manufacturing jobs I think that at this point it's like being in a sunken ship and telling someone to roll up the window.

The graph above indicates hat manufacturing jobs are starting to come back to he US due to technological advances and other factors.

I think Free trade grows GDP and leads to more innovations and efficiency in industry. I understand that I can lead to temporary pain in certain industries but I think you should offset hat pain with assistance programs and better education not at the expense of falling behind in industry.

As far as the TPP goes this is more about getting foreign companies in line with American economic interests so we can exert more influence over China. When you get everyone together you can pressure China into better business and currency practices.

 

[m52nickerson]

And that's where you didn't pull up the link I sent you, or address this chart:

And I do have to laugh about making the TPP bigger. I'll have to ask once again, what "free trade" agreement produced more/better higher paying jobs for the manufacturing class?

The whole idea of not doing the TPP is to at least save jobs that are already here. I just can't find the logic in making another free trade deal bigger so that it would grow manufacturing jobs, when it's a fundamental truth that those jobs will go from the more economically prosperous country to the least. It makes no sense whatsoever.

This chart does not point to NAFTA killing manufacturing jobs. Manufacturing jobs have been lost for a wide verity of reasons. One of them is moving jobs to countries were the labor costs are lower, but bigger loss of manufacturing jobs have come from modernization of the manufacturing processes.

 

[TheComebackKid]

TS enough with the "actually sounds presidential" angle. Anytime he gives a speech he sounds extremely presidential. You should be pointing out the incredible substance of the speech not this "oh wow, Trump went poo poo in the potty!" crap.

 

[Rex Kwon Do]

It's just rounded to zero. He has Don King, Louis Farrakhan, TCK, and the black guy who went to one of his rallies.

You mean his African-American?

 

[dr_hellno]

I'm curious, TS:

Just how times DO you masturbate daily to your own onslaught of propaganda?

 

[Streeter]

Hillary = dem version of W ....... Trump =
Imo Reagan lite. I truly believe Trump woyld be a totally hands off potus and basically choose a team and let them run tbe country while he smiles for the camera and kisses babies. While not idea I truly think that is our best option. With Hilary I think we get a W clone only the dem version but u stead of just dirt stupid also evil and vicious. Anyone that thinks Hilary isnt just as vindictive as Trump is kidding themselves trump just does it openly.

Unless trump make YUGE changes Hillary mandates and the next 4 years,are fucking scary unless she goes brain dead and Bill just uses her lifeless corpse to run tbe country himself as Bill was the last good potus,we have had.

 

[m52nickerson]

Okay, so Bill = good, Hillary = bad, and yet they share the same policies.

Makes perfect sense!

 

[J. Bernie Cunningham]

TS enough with the "actually sounds presidential" angle. Anytime he gives a speech he sounds extremely presidential. You should be pointing out the incredible substance of the speech not this "oh wow, Trump went poo poo in the potty!" crap.

Lol not even pretending anymore?

Bill Pullman sounded presidential in Independence Day. And he was actually believable in what he was saying.

I'd bet $1000 Trump has dropped more n-bombs in the last year than Ghostface Killa did in his lifetime.

 

[TheComebackKid]

Liberal ideology and the Democratic party has destroyed generations of black communities. Anytime some comes out with a more conservative message that speaks about success, opportunity, strong families, hard work, education, safety, sobriety, economic independence ect the left comes out of the woodwork to mock and stoke racial tensions.

White liberals and the Democratic party do not want us to prosper and achieve any real degree if independence, self esteem, and self respect. They don't and never have seen us equals and as human beings capable of shaping our own lives. They see us as votes and/or opportunities to virtue signal, that's it. So when they see anyone delivering that message prosperity and independence they mock and play the race card just like you see in this thread.

The black people in this country who want to prosper, build families, and enjoy life...of which are the majority...deserve better then condescension and hand holding...we deserve opportunity. That's all we need and all we want.

 

[Deleted member 429137]

story on how chris christie turned a trump 30 million debt into a 5 million dollar debt
Is this the system being rigged trump talks about?

Now isn't that something. Trump's had a golden horseshoe up his ass all his life.