Discussion in 'MMA Betting Discussion' started by EzFlyer, Oct 24, 2017.
+0.6u , I should have went bigger on Santos, but I can't complain.
+6u and 1.5u on parlays ending Holloway at 2.35 and +100 euros gambling. First time I got a big win on a card I had money on all fights! In terms of roi best night since my semi-pro debut 6 months ago. Could have been slightly better. I was supposed to fade Dias, but made a too big deal about weight difference.
+9u, surprised to be up this much with the Font loss, would've been +17u if Font didn't do the one thing he needed to avoid. I did end up on Brunson for 3u, and if anyone cares my LBs are on my bettin.gs page in the sig.
Clean sweep for me. Was big on Trinaldo + ACJ, small on Luque.
Down 2.8 this one, Hermansson and Maia really screwed me here.
Font was really the only mistep, imo.. don't beat yourself up!
Hermansson I guess too but I was right there with ya. Super disappointed in his fighting spirit more than our misplay
Up 1.5 units for the night.
note to self some things i should have done better:
price should have clearly been a live bet. there was a chance luque could gas but i shouldn't have thought it was a certainty. if i'm playing the less technical fighter, there needs to be a very clear reason.
same with machida. there is no way i should have played machida ml without hedging brunson r1. i should have just waited for r2.
i think i had a good read of font/munhoz but like most people, was blindsided by munhoz rocking font on the feet + font shooting a takedown. i still think font wins that match up the majority of times it plays out but a munhoz sub hedge would have been the smart play.
in general, prop hedges might be a smart idea going forward if the opponent has one way to win (sasaki sub against scoggins is a perfect example of a fight where i could have avoided a stinging loss).
i think i let the whisky dictate my plays last night, i played every fight exccept fig/brooks. trying to play the value on a lot of smaller bets didn't work out at all. next time i'm going to pick my spots more wisely.
UFN 119 Net: +619.06
brunson -145: 290 for 200 / brunson ITD: 32 parlays / brunson RD1: 30 for 105 - 14 parlays
maia: 67.50 for 350 - 21 parlays / maia ITD: 50 for 200 / maia SUB: 14 parlays / maia RD1: 6 parlays / maia NSC: 32 parlays / O2.5: 80 for 50 / covington SUB: 10 for 215 / covington RD3: 10 for 175 - 7 parlays
munhoz +160: 100 for 160 / munhoz ITD: 14 parlays / munhoz SUB: 50 for 400 - 6 parlays / munhoz RD3: 7 parlays / munhoz NSC: 50 for 105 - 21 parlays / O2.5: 72.50 for 50
miller +153: 250 for 382.50 / miller DEC: 33 for 152.13 - 14 parlays / miller SUB: 20 for 155 - 6 parlays / miller NSC: 32 parlays / O2.5: 85 for 50
hermansson +100: 100 for 100.45 - 32 parlays / hermansson DEC: 22 for 99 - 6 parlays / O1.5: 50 for 60 / DEC: 14 parlays / santos DEC: 7 parlays
lineker DEC: 40 for 93.20 - 14 parlays / NOT lineker ITD: 21 parlays / DEC: 52.50 for 50 / O1.5: 32 parlays / vera: 10 for 150 / vera SUB: 25 for 200 - 7 parlays / vera NSC: 6 parlays
price +143: 100 for 142.50 / price RD3: 10 for 110 - 7 parlays / price NSC: 50 for 65 / ITD: 87.50 for 50
marshman KO: 25 for 212.50 - 7 parlays / marshman RD3: 5 for 111.25 / marshman NSC: 25 for 101 - 20 parlays / NOT shoeface ITD: 21 parlays
dias +157: 75 for 117.50 - 21 parlays / dias DEC: 35 for 90.65
zaleski -190: 190 for 100 / zaleski ITD: 14 parlays / zaleski KO: 6 parlays / zaleski RD2: 20 for 145 / zaleski RD3: 20 for 252.50 - 7 parlays / zaleski -3.5: 21 parlays / zaleski NSC: 207.50 for 125 - 32 parlays
figuereido +158: 100 for 157.50 - 21 parlays / figuereido DEC: 40 for 150 - 14 parlays / figuereido RD1: 7 parlays / figuereido NSC: 136.75 for 100 - 32 parlays
golm-colombo O1.5: 25 for 26.75
FOTN: munhoz-font: 10 for 50
42 RR for (paid +97.70) 3,030.82: brunsonRD1/ maiaSUB/ munhozITD/ millerDEC/ santoshermDEC/ linekerDEC/ marshNSC/ zaleskiITD/ figDEC
49 RR for (paid +19.48) 537.90: maia/ munhozNSC/ NOTlinekerITD/ NOTshoefaceITD/ dias/ zaleski-3.5/ figuereido
21 RR for 4,060.54: maiaRD1/ munhozSUB/ millerSUB/ hermDEC/ veraNSC/ marshNSC/ zaleskiKO
28 RR for 3,599.26: covingtonRD3/ munhozRD3/ santosDEC/ veraSUB/ priceRD3/ marshKO/ zaleskiRD3/ figRD1
56 RR for (paid +0.18) 442.22: brunsonITD/ millerNSC/ maiaNSC/ hermansson/ veralinekerO1.5/ zaleskiNSC/ figNSC
fairly happy w/the result. zaleski finish would've been nice, but i did get the split on figs early (deserved!!)... munhoz was my big hope going in, and he came thru.
-going too big on miller live
-going too small on colby live
1u Maia ITD +400 -1u
1u Maia +160 -1u
0.2u Maia R3 +3300 -0.2u
1u Covington NSC +160
1u Munhoz +162 +1.62u
0.5u Munhoz NSC +210 +1.05u
1u Trinaldo -160 +0.63u
0.5u Trinaldo NSC -123
1.5u Santos +120 +1.8u
0.5u Santos NSC +107 +0.54u
0.2u Santos R3 +2500 -0.2u
0.2u Santos-Hermansson GTD +240 -0.2u
2u Luque -130 +1.54u
0.2u Price R3 +1400 -0.2u
0.4u Dias dec +267 -0.4u
2u Figueiredo +162 +3.24u
My initial lean was strong on Font, and after I heard him repeatedly acknowledging in interviews how aware he was of the guillotine, I (stupidly) decided to take the big shot on him. I don't regret betting Font, I still think Munhoz rarely wins that fight without the sub, but the smart thing would have been to reduce my risk on Font ML down to 3u, which would have broken me even on the fight.
I don't even know what to say about Hermansson. He just didn't perform the way I thought he would.
Also, I'm right there with you on live betting Colby. I thought Maia was done at the end of the first, I had the +135 in front of me and I only put 0.5u on it. Just poor betting strategy. My live betting is pretty weak overall, I'm not good at making quick decisions like that.
Anyway, congrats on the good night bud.
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