Your Official UFN 119 Bets

[Jamah]

1u Thiago Santos @2.20
1u Figueiredo @2.62

0.8u Griffin @2.80
0.5u Maia @2.40 / 0.1u Draw @67.00

0.3u Chito Vera @5.00
0.3u Marshman @4.80

Live: 1u Gordon ITD @2.40
0.6u Lineker DEC @2.30

+0.6u , I should have went bigger on Santos, but I can't complain.

 

[Yotsuya]

Finally a card with lots of close odds. Really enjoyed betting this one.

Brunson + Holloway 0.5u 2.5
Maia 0.5u 2.6
Maia R1 0.25u 10.0
Covington sub R3 0.05u 57.0
Freeroll: Covington R3 0.1u 10.0
Trinaldo + Holloway 0.5u 2.35
Santos 2u 2.23
Santos sub 0.05u 15.0
Munhoz 1.5u 2.5
Munhoz sub 0.1u 7.5
Munhoz sub R1 0.05 u 18.0
Font R3 0.1u 15.0
Vera R1 0.05u 15.0
Luque 0.75u 1.8
Price R3 0.05u 15.0
Marshman R3 0.05u 23.0
Dias 1.5u 2.42
Dias dec 0.3u 3.4
Zaleski + Holloway 0.5u 2.2
Figuereido 1.5u 2.6
Colombo R3 0.05u 19.0
Colombo dec 0.1u 8.0

Gambling action for fun: Santos 200e, Maia 150e, Jr sub 20e and Lineker KO/TKO 25e.

+6u and 1.5u on parlays ending Holloway at 2.35 and +100 euros gambling. First time I got a big win on a card I had money on all fights! In terms of roi best night since my semi-pro debut 6 months ago. Could have been slightly better. I was supposed to fade Dias, but made a too big deal about weight difference.

 

[Sadistics]

Brunson/Machida U2.5 -130 1u

Maia +170 .5u
Maia RD1 +850 .2u
Maia NSC +113 2u
Covington RD3 +2000 .1u

Font -161 5u
Font/Munhoz U2.5 +130 1u
Font/Munhoz ends in RD2 +527 .1u

Trinaldo -154 3.2u
Trinaldo/Miller O2.5 -170 1.7u

Santos +181 1u
Santos/Hermansson O1.5 +120 .5u

Lineker -280 4u

ACJ -353 4u
ACJ ITD +134 1u

Dias DEC +259 .4u

Golm -172 2u

Mostly set, waiting for a certain prop, and may play Brunson. Upped the unit size by 25% after the last event so a loss here would sting

+9u, surprised to be up this much with the Font loss, would've been +17u if Font didn't do the one thing he needed to avoid. I did end up on Brunson for 3u, and if anyone cares my LBs are on my bettin.gs page in the sig.

 

[betrayedlurker]

Clean sweep for me. Was big on Trinaldo + ACJ, small on Luque.

 

[Shoulder]

Down 2.8 this one, Hermansson and Maia really screwed me here.

 

[EzFlyer]

0.2u Brunson RD1 +350 +0.7u

1.5u Maia +157 -1.5u
0.5u Maia SUB +300 -0.5u
0.1u Covington RD3 +1750 -0.1u

4u Font -153 -4u
0.3u Munhoz SUB +1020 +3.06u
0.1u Font RD3 +1075 -0.1u

1.5u Trinaldo -165 +0.91u
1.575u Miller-Trinaldo o2.5 -155 +1.02u
0.2u Miller SUB +775 -0.2u

2u Hermansson +110 -2u
0.2u Hermansson DEC +485 -0.2u
0.1u Hermansson RD3 +1075 -0.1u

0.1 Vera SUB +1050 -0.1u
0.05u Lineker SUB +1500 -0.05u

0.2u Luque RD1 +400 -0.2u

2u Carlos Junior -3.5 -205 +0.98u
1u Carlos Junior SUB +100 +1u
0.25u Marshman KO +800 -0.25u

0.2u Griffin KO +585 -0.2u
0.1u Zaleski RD3 +1450 -0.1u

0.3u Dias DEC +267 -0.3u

3u Carlos Junior/Font -105 -3u
1u Zaleski/Trinaldo +110 +1.1u
0.1u Zaleski/Luque/Hermansson/Trinaldo/Font/Maia/Brunson +4095 -0.1u

0.55u RR Zaleski ITD/Luque ITD/Lineker DEC/Font ITD -0.09u

Added:
0.75u Miller +310 -0.75u
0.5u Covington +135 +0.625u
0.5u Covington-Maia ITD +190 -0.5u

NET: -4.95u

Could not have been a more frustrating night. Put a lot of extra time into this card and ended up with my second worst loss of the year. Font killed me. It's my own fault for being too big on him, but tough to swallow seeing him do the one thing that he shouldn't against Munhoz. Joker and Maia both putting on very strange performances didn't help. Of course I was debating on Luque and Brunson bets, but didn't pull the trigger. Gonna put this behind me and hopefully get this turned around next week.

Font was really the only mistep, imo.. don't beat yourself up!

Hermansson I guess too but I was right there with ya. Super disappointed in his fighting spirit more than our misplay

 

[MT6ix]

1.5u Trinaldo @ -185
1u Zaleski @ -200
1u Price @ +115

Up 1.5 units for the night.

 

[piglord]

note to self some things i should have done better:

price should have clearly been a live bet. there was a chance luque could gas but i shouldn't have thought it was a certainty. if i'm playing the less technical fighter, there needs to be a very clear reason.

same with machida. there is no way i should have played machida ml without hedging brunson r1. i should have just waited for r2.

i think i had a good read of font/munhoz but like most people, was blindsided by munhoz rocking font on the feet + font shooting a takedown. i still think font wins that match up the majority of times it plays out but a munhoz sub hedge would have been the smart play.

in general, prop hedges might be a smart idea going forward if the opponent has one way to win (sasaki sub against scoggins is a perfect example of a fight where i could have avoided a stinging loss).

i think i let the whisky dictate my plays last night, i played every fight exccept fig/brooks. trying to play the value on a lot of smaller bets didn't work out at all. next time i'm going to pick my spots more wisely.

 

[EzFlyer]

UFN 119 Net: +619.06
brunson -145: 290 for 200 / brunson ITD: 32 parlays / brunson RD1: 30 for 105 - 14 parlays
maia: 67.50 for 350 - 21 parlays / maia ITD: 50 for 200 / maia SUB: 14 parlays / maia RD1: 6 parlays / maia NSC: 32 parlays / O2.5: 80 for 50 / covington SUB: 10 for 215 / covington RD3: 10 for 175 - 7 parlays
munhoz +160: 100 for 160 / munhoz ITD: 14 parlays / munhoz SUB: 50 for 400 - 6 parlays / munhoz RD3: 7 parlays / munhoz NSC: 50 for 105 - 21 parlays / O2.5: 72.50 for 50
miller +153: 250 for 382.50 / miller DEC: 33 for 152.13 - 14 parlays / miller SUB: 20 for 155 - 6 parlays / miller NSC: 32 parlays / O2.5: 85 for 50
hermansson +100: 100 for 100.45 - 32 parlays / hermansson DEC: 22 for 99 - 6 parlays / O1.5: 50 for 60 / DEC: 14 parlays / santos DEC: 7 parlays
lineker DEC: 40 for 93.20 - 14 parlays / NOT lineker ITD: 21 parlays / DEC: 52.50 for 50 / O1.5: 32 parlays / vera: 10 for 150 / vera SUB: 25 for 200 - 7 parlays / vera NSC: 6 parlays
price +143: 100 for 142.50 / price RD3: 10 for 110 - 7 parlays / price NSC: 50 for 65 / ITD: 87.50 for 50
marshman KO: 25 for 212.50 - 7 parlays / marshman RD3: 5 for 111.25 / marshman NSC: 25 for 101 - 20 parlays / NOT shoeface ITD: 21 parlays
dias +157: 75 for 117.50 - 21 parlays / dias DEC: 35 for 90.65
zaleski -190: 190 for 100 / zaleski ITD: 14 parlays / zaleski KO: 6 parlays / zaleski RD2: 20 for 145 / zaleski RD3: 20 for 252.50 - 7 parlays / zaleski -3.5: 21 parlays / zaleski NSC: 207.50 for 125 - 32 parlays
figuereido +158: 100 for 157.50 - 21 parlays / figuereido DEC: 40 for 150 - 14 parlays / figuereido RD1: 7 parlays / figuereido NSC: 136.75 for 100 - 32 parlays
golm-colombo O1.5: 25 for 26.75
props
FOTN: munhoz-font: 10 for 50
parlays
42 RR for (paid +97.70) 3,030.82: brunsonRD1/ maiaSUB/ munhozITD/ millerDEC/ santoshermDEC/ linekerDEC/ marshNSC/ zaleskiITD/ figDEC
49 RR for (paid +19.48) 537.90: maia/ munhozNSC/ NOTlinekerITD/ NOTshoefaceITD/ dias/ zaleski-3.5/ figuereido
21 RR for 4,060.54: maiaRD1/ munhozSUB/ millerSUB/ hermDEC/ veraNSC/ marshNSC/ zaleskiKO
28 RR for 3,599.26: covingtonRD3/ munhozRD3/ santosDEC/ veraSUB/ priceRD3/ marshKO/ zaleskiRD3/ figRD1
56 RR for (paid +0.18) 442.22: brunsonITD/ millerNSC/ maiaNSC/ hermansson/ veralinekerO1.5/ zaleskiNSC/ figNSC
---

fairly happy w/the result. zaleski finish would've been nice, but i did get the split on figs early (deserved!!)... munhoz was my big hope going in, and he came thru.

only regrets:
-going too big on miller live
-going too small on colby live

 

[And]

1u Maia ITD +400 -1u
1u Maia +160 -1u
0.2u Maia R3 +3300 -0.2u
1u Covington NSC +160

1u Munhoz +162 +1.62u
0.5u Munhoz NSC +210 +1.05u

1u Trinaldo -160 +0.63u
0.5u Trinaldo NSC -123

1.5u Santos +120 +1.8u
0.5u Santos NSC +107 +0.54u
0.2u Santos R3 +2500 -0.2u
0.2u Santos-Hermansson GTD +240 -0.2u

2u Luque -130 +1.54u
0.2u Price R3 +1400 -0.2u

0.4u Dias dec +267 -0.4u

2u Figueiredo +162 +3.24u

Total: +7.22u

 

[t6p]

Font was really the only mistep, imo.. don't beat yourself up!

Hermansson I guess too but I was right there with ya. Super disappointed in his fighting spirit more than our misplay

My initial lean was strong on Font, and after I heard him repeatedly acknowledging in interviews how aware he was of the guillotine, I (stupidly) decided to take the big shot on him. I don't regret betting Font, I still think Munhoz rarely wins that fight without the sub, but the smart thing would have been to reduce my risk on Font ML down to 3u, which would have broken me even on the fight.

I don't even know what to say about Hermansson. He just didn't perform the way I thought he would.

Also, I'm right there with you on live betting Colby. I thought Maia was done at the end of the first, I had the +135 in front of me and I only put 0.5u on it. Just poor betting strategy. My live betting is pretty weak overall, I'm not good at making quick decisions like that.

Anyway, congrats on the good night bud.