Unbiased: Mcgregor vs Nurmagomedov

It's much more complicated than "a puncher's chance."

I know the tendency is to pull the other way in light of all the people who worship Conor, but the fact of the matter is this fight is much, much closer a matchup than most are giving it credit for.

Lots of questions will be answered that night. I don't think Khabib has ever been hit by someone like Conor. I don't think he's dealt with anyone who can dance around like him. Conor has a way of luring someone into his pace.

I'm discounting the Mayweather spectacle because it was exactly that, a spectacle.

I believe that if Conor gets a hard left early, things will look very bad for KN.

This might seem like I'm being one-sided towards him but the reasons to expect a Khabib win are obvious. If he gets Conor down once, just once, it's probably over. And by over, I mean five rounds of long, drawn out pounding.
 
I’ve changed my mind on this fight like 10 times. At the moment I’m leaning toward Conor getting the finish; Khabib is way too hittable. I might change my mind again soon though
 
To me, the big question isn't Khabib's grappling vs. Conor's striking, it's how exactly the transitions play out.

That's the only open question to me, but it's a big one that will probably determine who wins.
 
I think khabib should beat him, and truly want him too but I just have a bad feeling he's gonna get ko'ed.

~DaViD~
 
sdpdude9 said:
Here's my opinion. Conor doesn't have true one punch KO power. He generally needs to hurt his opponent multiple times to get them out of there. This bodes well for Khabib, because he can likely take a few shots and still stay in it.
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This is what I think as well. Even if Conor hurts Khabib, he's not going to KO him with just one punch, which means Khabib might be able to clinch and if he clinches, he will most likely get the time to somewhat recover and take Conor down from clinch.
 
one thing. every big fight is the greatest match in ufc history. you ts have been brainwashed by the demi God Dana. just let them bang bro and hope for a war.
 
Thanks for the thread. Though I'm often bored with super fights this one has me intrigued. Not sure who I'll root for as both have character flaws. But there's no denying they're at or near the top of their game. Similar size & age & both in their prime. So forget about what you do or don't like about them outside the octagon. It's just a great match up. Glad they aren't doing too much pre-fight hype on this one. The fight speaks for itself.

This fight's tough to predict. They each have strengths that have made them on occasion look shockingly good along with a few dud performances. My mind is saying Khabib. But my heart is saying Conor because nearly every time I've counted him out in mma he has proven me wrong. Most look forward to the surprises. Have a feeling some things will happen that few would have predicted.
 
Here's how I see the fight happening. Conor will tag Khabib. There's no question about that. Johnson did. Al did. I"m sure Conor will. But here's the thing. Conor has never "Put anyone to sleep"...except maybe Jose. Knocking a man down doesn't equate to knocking him out. Khabib will be hit, just like he has on all of his fights. But has he ever been knocked down? No. I see him getting tagged. But most likely, he will find a way to cut the angle and go in for the grapple. Even if he gets it to the fence....it should be game over. You are not going to escape that. I think he will turn it up 5X over the fight against Al.

Of course, I will never bet the house that Khabib wins. Conor wiill have a puncher's chance.
 
I made a thread yesterday and I think it comes down to:

-How will Khabib close the distance?
-How will Khabib react to McGregor’s left?
-Is Khabib going to take down McGregor with ease?
-How difficult will it be for McGregor to get back up?
-How will McGregor’s cardio hold up?

Honorable mention: Is Khabib going to make weight?

In an unbiased manner, like many have said, McGregor’s strengths are Khabib’s weaknesses and McGregor’s weaknesses are Khabib’s strengths.

I think it will really come down to how Khabib will manage to close the distance and how McGregor will manage to keep that distance.

With that being said, McGregor has the better footwork, so I say he has an advantage in that aspect.
 
VicRomano said:
This is a very interesting fight, both are very skilled at what they do. it just so happens that their strengths are each other's weakness.
This is a very up and up fight to me.
I feel if Khabib can keep calm and maintain his gameplan and impose his will he has this.
Mcgregor path to victory is to maintain that distance and get Khabib to bite.
I myself am rooting for Khabib but to underestimate Mcgregor is unwise.
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AV?
 
Johnnny said:
OP your take would make sense if Khabib was 3 inches shorter. Unfortunately, he's taller than Conor.

Conor has never been able to finish a UFC-caliber fighter taller than he is.

Joe Duffy
Max Holloway
Nate Diaz 1
Nate Diaz 2

Conor has never finished a taller fighter. Khabib is taller than Conor and has never been finished period. But you're predicting that Conor will finish Khabib?
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This would make sense if height was a meaningful statistic to measure a probable outcome of a fight. Otherwise Struve and HMC would never have been toppled as many times as they were. But, I'm probably being trolled and took the bait, because who doesn't know that.

The more accurate assessment is reach. Conor relies not just on his reflexes and timing, but also on his reach advantage over opponents. It just so happens if an opponent is taller than you, they probably have a longer reach. With Holloway being the exception, Conor had trouble with the guys with a reach over 70" like Duffy, Diaz, and yes, Mayweather Jr. The thing that makes this interesting to me, is Khabib's reach is right at 70...like Aldo and Alvarez. But does Khabib have a Nate-esque chin to survive a couple of big punches and employ his takedowns? Good chance, but it's still not guaranteed.

40/60 Conor/Khabib is my best guess. I agree with TS that Ferguson (76" reach) is the more difficult fight for Conor though. Hell, and for Khabib.
 
Isma_mma said:
nah...
let me try it.
1. Khabib fucks up Condom
2. Condom cries and bitch about the fight, saying that he had staph, was on chemotherapy,had the plague and 37 broken ribs leading up to the fight, and fought a guy 50 time his size
3. He will beg for a rematch, that he'll get
4. Khabib fucks him up again
5. Condom retires
Click to expand...
I would be content with that scenario.
 
If Khabib can survive until the first clinch or takedown he will win the round/fight. Conor has 45 seconds- 2 minutes to connect at each start of the round.

Personally i hope Conor connects and KOs Khabib and after Aldo i find it hard to doubt the crazy Irish man BUT logic is telling me Khabib gets past the stand up, grabs Conor, holds on for dear life and gets him to the ground where he will smother him and beat on him.
I do think Conor can survive a round or two of this. So that will give Conor at least two attempts to KO Khabib.
Thats how i see this fight. WAR Conor with a side of hespect for Khabibs game.
 
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Khabib will be exposed .. Big time.

Head clean off round 1

Conor bless
 
I have lost tons of cash betting against McG, with the exception of the Mayweather fight. With that said I think this fight will be determined on the feet. Conor will probably end it by TKO.
 
You guys think khabib will be able to take him down at will is fuckin unbelievable khabibs td sucks...
Khabibs only chance to win is holding conor up agaisnt the cage and praying the ref doesnt split them up to fast.
 
What’s most exciting for me is the question, how will Khabib close the distance without eating some shots, and how will he react to those shots, if he gets into confusion and Conor can dictate the pace and the range he will be in a lot of problems.

I think Conor is very smart with his pre-emptive takedown defence and he won’t leave good openings to Khabib that easily. Also, his feinting and movement is on another level, he will plant deceptive takedown openings to khabib that are traps.

I could see Khabib made look like an amateur.

I can also see Khabib smash Conor on the ground if/after Conor gets tired and Khabib survives the storm of 1-2 rounds. I think a fresh Conor will have answers in the clinch and on the ground against Khabib, but the real battle of this fight will fought at the distance where Conor shines so it might not even get to clinch or ground that easily. However if Khabib gets a dominant position, and control of Conor, he could make Conor very tired and just rip him apart.


Also! What if Khabib turns out to be able to take all Conor’s shots and not get confused if Conor lands and wins some good exchanges? How will Conor react to that “I have a good conditioned smasherwrestler in front of me who just won’t get finished...” how will Conor’s conditioning hold and how would that kind of hypothetical scnario affect his mentality during the fight?


I think the fight is 55/45 for Conor.. but a dominant win for either one is a high possibility. I’m not sure if this could be a back and forth war from start to finish, I think it goes one way, then the other way if there’s no finish.


Ahhh... man I can’t wait!!
 
The unbiased prediction will all come down to defense. Who can play their strengths while avoiding the opponents own. The biggest question is if Conor can avoid the takedown. That will dictate the fight. Most think he will likely get taken down (Unless Conor can KO him first) so the next question is what happens next. Can he tie up Khabib from the bottom? Can he threaten him off his back? Can he get up? Can he avoid damage? During that process Conor obviously has the ability to KO or rock Khabib hard that leads to a TKO. It won't be that easy for Khabib to close the distance and he doesn't have the power double like other elite wrestlers. The biggest unknown is if the fight goes into championship rounds. That's where the gas tank will play a significant role of who will come up on top (if it even goes that far).

Like many other fights this is a high caliber classic striker vs grappler matchup
 
Great analysis,that in no way takes into account khabibs skillset. Would read again 9/10
 
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