UFN 125 - Anders vs Machida - Brazil

Discussion in 'MMA Betting Discussion' started by EzFlyer, Jan 27, 2018.

Thread Status:
Not open for further replies.
  1. Sadistics

    Sadistics Green Belt

    Joined:
    Dec 22, 2015
    Messages:
    1,371
    Likes Received:
    3,032
    I've said it before, but anyone considering backing Prazeres needs to rewatch Praz vs Lee and Lazaro.

    Green is one of my more confident picks, especially with this weight limit.
     
    TheOneTrueKing, Ukram, MT6ix and 2 others like this.
  2. ChoKuRei

    ChoKuRei Blue Belt Platinum Member

    Joined:
    May 13, 2016
    Messages:
    861
    Likes Received:
    1,407
    Location:
    Colorado
    I see it going much like the Lee fight. Think green might even be able to finish prazeres in the later rounds when he slows down.
     
  3. mkess101

    mkess101 85 or bust...

    Joined:
    Sep 24, 2007
    Messages:
    23,250
    Likes Received:
    8,212
    You're thinking Prazeres slows considerably after rd 1? I think Lee is so much better an athlete than Green, at least how I see it.

    Could be really nice live lines on Green though after rd 1 if Prazeres takes that round. If the thinking is he then tires and slows down, might be the way to play it.
     
  4. Sadistics

    Sadistics Green Belt

    Joined:
    Dec 22, 2015
    Messages:
    1,371
    Likes Received:
    3,032
    Doesn't necessarily need to slow for Green to have his way, though I think he will. I expect him to stay on the outside picking Praz apart while defending all TDs much like Lazaro. Lee just stood in front of him without issue.
     
    t6p likes this.
  5. piglord

    piglord Black Belt

    Joined:
    Sep 5, 2014
    Messages:
    5,090
    Likes Received:
    5,271
    Location:
    Sewers
    while i agree that would work green has said specifically that he's going to look to use his offencive wrestling and tire praz out in this fight, which i think will work too.
     
    Sadistics, t6p and ChoKuRei like this.
  6. JimGunn

    JimGunn Silver Belt

    Joined:
    Nov 21, 2013
    Messages:
    11,470
    Likes Received:
    6,636
    Green is so inactive with his striking at least in any kind of effective sense. I think 173 pound Prazares will be able to take him down and even if he slows down, it won't be enough for Green to take advantage.
     
    Caicara likes this.
  7. mkess101

    mkess101 85 or bust...

    Joined:
    Sep 24, 2007
    Messages:
    23,250
    Likes Received:
    8,212
    Wall n stall and try to make Prazeres carry his weight is probably a good gameplan. Not sure he should necessarily be trying to mess with Prazeres on the mat a ton though.
     
  8. EzFlyer

    EzFlyer Senior Moderator Staff Member Senior Moderator

    Joined:
    Jul 19, 2006
    Messages:
    37,938
    Likes Received:
    17,103
    Location:
    philly
    NopeHehe
     
  9. mkess101

    mkess101 85 or bust...

    Joined:
    Sep 24, 2007
    Messages:
    23,250
    Likes Received:
    8,212
    Morales sub +706.

    Tiny stab at this. I always assume the TAM guys have that guillotine down to a science, and it's for sure the easiest sub to at least attempt in MMA. That alone is enough for me, and 5 of his 9 wins are via sub (granted against much worse grapplers than Figueiredo).
     
  10. Caicara

    Caicara Purple Belt

    Joined:
    Mar 3, 2013
    Messages:
    1,596
    Likes Received:
    1,114
    And just to put a bit more sauce in this discussion...

    Adding 0.5u on Prazeres ITD
    @+375
     
  11. EndlessCritic

    EndlessCritic Gold Belt

    Joined:
    Jan 14, 2013
    Messages:
    17,593
    Likes Received:
    7,663
    someone want to explain how morales is +140 here? This is at worst evens.

    Similarly, I'm confused by the Anthony Smith line. He's game in every fight. +245 seems off.

    And, since it's so lively, I am on Prazeres at evens. He's a seasoned UFC vet, fighting in Brazil, and Green is just not active enough. I expect the entire fight to remain standing.
     
  12. onC

    onC Blue Belt

    Joined:
    Jul 26, 2016
    Messages:
    556
    Likes Received:
    570
    Pinny has opened some props for the main card :O. Damn I wish they offer live-betting for MMA one day.
     
    Agent Mulder likes this.
  13. mmaHobbyist

    mmaHobbyist Blue Belt

    Joined:
    Aug 4, 2012
    Messages:
    614
    Likes Received:
    167
    If you base on wiki cap, Prazeres is 23-2, he should be -250 to -350. I think it is pick'em odd because people like the stylist match up for Green.

    2 things that stop me from going big on Green: Green is a pt fighter, might give round away & this is in Brazil. I don't think the judges are corrupt but the fan might influence the judging. Judges need to be isolate from fan, like a sound studio sitting on a 1 legged chair.
     
    lifeisgood12345 likes this.
  14. mkess101

    mkess101 85 or bust...

    Joined:
    Sep 24, 2007
    Messages:
    23,250
    Likes Received:
    8,212
    Smith is just SO hittable. His defense is awful. Santos is a finisher. That's not a good combo.

    Plus you'll probably get huge odds on him live if he survives the early rounds and you think Santos may gas. Smith has won all his recent fights by pulling something out of his ass late. He's entertaining for sure, but I think he's getting steamrolled here.
     
    lifeisgood12345 and Caicara like this.
  15. Sadistics

    Sadistics Green Belt

    Joined:
    Dec 22, 2015
    Messages:
    1,371
    Likes Received:
    3,032
    Awesome, first time they've ever offered props on MMA I believe. I Emailed them last month asking if they'd consider introducing props and said they might. Sadly the props aren't available through their app, only the website.
     
  16. Caicara

    Caicara Purple Belt

    Joined:
    Mar 3, 2013
    Messages:
    1,596
    Likes Received:
    1,114
    Santos + Shevchenko is a lock.

    I have both ITD in a small play, pretty confident
     
  17. edhan

    edhan Green Belt

    Joined:
    Dec 15, 2012
    Messages:
    1,108
    Likes Received:
    33
    Location:
    NYC
    In all honesty, I think it's just an NYC thing but not 100% sure anymore. I cut the cord a while ago but came back just this past year to cable bc i moved and got a good deal. MSG/SNY i'm pretty sure were the only networks that are blacked outside of those cable providers who service NYC. It might've changed though, i haven't researched in a while. I remember seeing recently that FuBOTV or whatever has MSG/SNY.
     
    t6p likes this.
  18. piglord

    piglord Black Belt

    Joined:
    Sep 5, 2014
    Messages:
    5,090
    Likes Received:
    5,271
    Location:
    Sewers


    i think this guy's breakdown of vera/andrade is straight loony tunes but some interesting insights on the other fights.
     
  19. t6p

    t6p Brown Belt

    Joined:
    Feb 25, 2016
    Messages:
    2,563
    Likes Received:
    3,816
    Thanks bud. I'll look more into it.
     
  20. arrelione

    arrelione Member of the YES!!! Revolution

    Joined:
    Sep 21, 2010
    Messages:
    8,616
    Likes Received:
    670
    So are they a lock, are you pretty confident about the play or are you playing it small?
     
    raketmannen and PuertoRican like this.
Thread Status:
Not open for further replies.

Share This Page