UFN 123 - Swanson vs Ortega - Fresno, CA

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quincy k said:
i was just making a point that ortega is not the only one that has a chance of winning in rounds four and five.

the fact that brian also missed weight last fight (he blamed a shoulder injury iirc) and that cub knows how to fight five rounds against proven ufc caliber fighters, imo, +3300 is a solid prop
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#fakenews
 
Sadistics said:
Ortega fucked Tavares up both off his back and on top. Moicano and Tavares specialize in BJJ, I believe they're both black belts as well
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Tavares chose to be on the ground with Ortega and did fairly well there. Rd 1 was close with Tavares winning the bulk of the round on top. Ortega hit that sweep and did cut Tavares, so that swayed the round for some. In rd 2, it was clearly Tavares. Tavares had Ortega in a lot of danger with getting his back and mount there. Rd 2 was Tavares fucking up Ortega a lot more than you can say Ortega fucked up Tavares in Rd 1 unless you are just looking at a cut. If you look at that fight as a whole on the ground only, Tavares did better than Ortega. Ortega was playing a really loose submission hunting game giving up top control and position.

Ortega's ground game is somewhat similar to the Diaz brothers. He can be extremely loose hunting for subs that aren't there and being content on bottom. Off of takedowns, he'll try to grab onto things that aren't there too. He's always working though, and I think he does a better job of attacking from bottom with strikes as he uses elbows. Without a doubt though, I think the point Gugabe was making is that you can hang with him on the ground. His sub wins besides De La Torre were against gassed fighters. I actually think you have to worry more about Ortega's cardio and pace late (again, similar to the Diaz's) than his ground game. I think he's equally as dangerous standing at this point. Another good fight to point to guys doing ok on the ground is Keoni Koch.
 
Wiktoruspro said:
From what I see the whole forum including me is on:
Holtzman
Liz Carmouche
Luke Sanders
I hope its a good sign.
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Several of us are on Davis.

And not many have said they're betting Sanders...
 
Oblivian said:
Tavares chose to be on the ground with Ortega and did fairly well there. Rd 1 was close with Tavares winning the bulk of the round on top. Ortega hit that sweep and did cut Tavares, so that swayed the round for some. In rd 2, it was clearly Tavares. Tavares had Ortega in a lot of danger with getting his back and mount there. Rd 2 was Tavares fucking up Ortega a lot more than you can say Ortega fucked up Tavares in Rd 1 unless you are just looking at a cut. If you look at that fight as a whole on the ground only, Tavares did better than Ortega. Ortega was playing a really loose submission hunting game giving up top control and position.

Ortega's ground game is somewhat similar to the Diaz brothers. He can be extremely loose hunting for subs that aren't there and being content on bottom. Off of takedowns, he'll try to grab onto things that aren't there too. He's always working though, and I think he does a better job of attacking from bottom with strikes as he uses elbows. Without a doubt though, I think the point Gugabe was making is that you can hang with him on the ground. His sub wins besides De La Torre were against gassed fighters. I actually think you have to worry more about Ortega's cardio and pace late (again, similar to the Diaz's) than his ground game. I think he's equally as dangerous standing at this point. Another good fight to point to guys doing ok on the ground is Keoni Koch.
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Prettymuch. I'd rather Swanson didn't hang out on the ground with him, but I hardly think that Swanson's gonna just get insta-tapped by Ortega. The Moicano sub was pure shitty td technique by Moicano, rather than coming down to out-BJJing him in transition or during a 'grappling exchange'. It felt more like panic wrestling, and you can see from Moicano's reaction afterwards how much of a brainfart it was by him. Lentz-Brooks-tier retardation.

Ortega's got a great offensive guard game, sure. But it's going to get him mulched against the Lamases and Edgars of the division once they keep things tight, advance to side control since he's not doing enough to get back to his feet, and then elbow his face off. I think Swanson's more than capable of surviving from top control in this instance. Not to say that he couldn't give up the Jacksons RNC, though.
 
Gugabe said:
Prettymuch. I'd rather Swanson didn't hang out on the ground with him, but I hardly think that Swanson's gonna just get insta-tapped by Ortega. The Moicano sub was pure shitty td technique by Moicano, rather than coming down to out-BJJing him in transition or during a 'grappling exchange'. It felt more like panic wrestling, and you can see from Moicano's reaction afterwards how much of a brainfart it was by him. Lentz-Brooks-tier retardation.

Ortega's got a great offensive guard game, sure. But it's going to get him mulched against the Lamases and Edgars of the division once they keep things tight, advance to side control since he's not doing enough to get back to his feet, and then elbow his face off. I think Swanson's more than capable of surviving from top control in this instance. Not to say that he couldn't give up the Jacksons RNC, though.
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i think what you are describing is the reason why fabricio werdum went to train with justine fortune

ill take the guy with the better stand-up and superior punching power over the bjj guy almost every time especially when live betting is being offered
 
EzFlyer said:
pulling the trigger on moraes -140. these guys and their teams train together.. first time mark henry and serra-longo have ever gone against each other like i said earlier (i think, anyway?) -- think this becomes a technical pointfighting striking battle as a result - for sure gotta favor moraes in that.
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May I ask, what website are you using to place your bets, I'm on Bovada, are there better sites out there?
 
Wiktoruspro said:
Guys any leans to Trevin Giles and Davi Ramos?
In my opinion Trevin has quite good wrestling, pace and decent stand up. His oponnent will have ring rust for sure.
David Ramos has big grappling advantage and size. Not to mention Skelly tapped out Gruetzmacher in his last fight.

What do you think ?!
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Giles - seems much more composed and organized in life in general -- look at how Neto has had less fights than GSP in a 5 year period and was trying to make a living through poker, then was suicidal at one point, and now decided to fight again this year. Very up and down compared to a guy that is calm in the cage and is working toward becoming a cop out of the cage. Giles has also said he's aware of the BJJ threat Neto brings to the table and that he will have to fight methodically and is training with black belts for this one. I like how Giles picks his shots on the ground and makes them count.

Ramos - Looks to be in great shape, Gritz looks like another one of those mediocre fighters I mentioned above. His weakness is Ramos' strength except Ramos amplifies that weakness by about 10,000 with his level of no gi grappling. Even if he doesn't get the sub I think Ramos possesses the ability to win a decision. I don't see why he couldn't if he was able to take Moraes the distance a weight class up on short notice.
 
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quincy k said:
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He didn't miss weight, and he has never missed weight to my knowledge. He had to weigh in at the last minute because the scale he used the night before was off so he had to cut extra weight the morning of the weigh in.

Regardless, if you're counting on him not having the cardio for 5 rounds, I think you're going to be disappointed.
 
Wiktoruspro said:
Either Andre but more on Sanders, and who is on Davis ??? Are you reading the same thread ? :D
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I'm on Davis but not going hard on it or anything. I don't really get why people are so confident about Carmouche personally. She lost to her a couple years ago and is now on a two fight decision win streak against okay fighters, and hasn't been any more active than Davis. It's not like she's made some Max Holloway-level improvement

I don't know why anyone's on Andre either. He's massively outclassed here
 
Smh I really should stop using Bovada. It's Thursday and they still don't have undercard lines.
 
Arkham's Notorious Geyser said:
May I ask, what website are you using to place your bets, I'm on Bovada, are there better sites out there?
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Lmao I didn't even see this before my post above. Most people here seem to use 5dimes, they're among the first to put lines out. Bovada is always super late and tends to not put props out until fight day
 
t6p said:
He didn't miss weight, and he has never missed weight to my knowledge. He had to weigh in at the last minute because the scale he used the night before was off so he had to cut extra weight the morning of the weigh in.

Regardless, if you're counting on him not having the cardio for 5 rounds, I think you're going to be disappointed.
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you are correct, he didnt miss weight, just had a problem.

at +3300 round four and round five, round five being hedgeable decision should cub be comfortably winning the fight, i have absolutely no problem being disappointed if ortega ends up having ufc five round cardio
 
rev0lver said:
Lmao I didn't even see this before my post above. Most people here seem to use 5dimes, they're among the first to put lines out. Bovada is always super late and tends to not put props out until fight day
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I see, thank you, I've been lookin into 5dimes, are their odds better or about the same usually.
 
quincy k said:
you are correct, he didnt miss weight, just had a problem.

at +3300 round four and round five, round five being hedgeable decision should cub be comfortably winning the fight, i have absolutely no problem being disappointed if ortega ends up having ufc five round cardio
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Gotcha. And to be clear I was not saying I think a late Cub finish (or any Cub finish) is out of the question. I would never try to talk someone out of a play at those odds.
 
t6p said:
Gotcha. And to be clear I was not saying I think a late Cub finish (or any Cub finish) is out of the question. I would never try to talk someone out of a play at those odds.
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im on cub and hoping to live bet middle ortega.
 
rev0lver said:
From what I've seen their lines are usually slightly wider. a +235 on Bovada might be +245 on 5dimes
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Is wider good or bad? Still quite new to this whole thing, and want to put money on Moraes, but don't know the best place to do it.
 
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