UFN 123 - Swanson vs Ortega - Fresno, CA

Discussion in 'MMA Betting Discussion' started by EzFlyer, Nov 25, 2017.

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  1. Jae Gibbz

    Jae Gibbz Black Belt

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    Yep. One of my main plays is that fight not going the distance. Got the opener on BM at -110. Still a lot of value on it. I think it should be at least -200. Probably ends ITD at least 70% of the time
     
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  2. Jae Gibbz

    Jae Gibbz Black Belt

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    Markus Perez up to +375 in some places? Makes no sense to me. Anders should be no higher than -200
     
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  3. rev0lver

    rev0lver Blue Belt

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    Why do you say that? Sanders has only gone to decision 3 times so far in his career and finished his debut. Iuri is just tough, he's never been knocked out and only been finished twice in 44 fights. Souk hasn't been finished yet but Sanders will easily be the toughest opponent he's faced. Sanders handles him easily imo
     
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  4. NinjaCat456

    NinjaCat456 Green Belt

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    Was considering playing Neto, not based on tape study or anything, purely because there's usually a dog or two nobody itt considers that comes through and wins. ie Janes last week. So prob Neto, Gruetz, or de Tomas tonight.
     
  5. Sadistics

    Sadistics Green Belt

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    Been a while since I watched it but in one of his pre UFC fights he hurt his opponent a couple times but couldn't put him away
     
  6. rev0lver

    rev0lver Blue Belt

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    Why are people acting like Benito has been fighting longer just because he said he started when he was 12 lol

    Morales has been boxing since he was a kid too (source: I know him and the guy who taught him)
     
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  7. 2bet

    2bet Orange Belt

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    If you want to go for Neto get his ITD line, because how would he ever win a decision.
    on bet365 his ML is 3.25, while his ITD line is 5.50

    btw I give Alejandro Perez and Horcher a better chance than the 3 guys you mentioned

    IMO Gruetz is the most unlikely fighter to win at UFN 123 (in before he knocks Ramos out in the first round haha)

    Davis, Saenz, Sterling,.. was there even an unanimous agreement on any dog? I can't remember. Davis maybe?
     
  8. rev0lver

    rev0lver Blue Belt

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    Oddly it seems like 80%+ here are on Carmouche. I feel good about throwing money on Davis
     
  9. iGnP

    iGnP Silver Belt

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    @Jamah i cant bless you with a dog that no one is talking about today. havent researched
     
  10. thewiggo

    thewiggo White Belt

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    Ive got fight to end in sub at +210 for these exact reasons
     
  11. Jamah

    Jamah Green Belt

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    Don't worry, save your magic powers for the next event!
     
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  12. barrygood1

    barrygood1 Blue Belt

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    For those wondering, I will not be providing free picks for the card tonight. Can't jip my subscribers by constantly giving free money to non-subscribers.

    Also, PLEASE I need my Alabamians to vote Doug Jones. I hate getting political, but we as Americans must #resist. Our country is being run by a lunatic out of a looney toons cartoon.

    - Barry
     
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  13. stretcharmstrong

    stretcharmstrong Purple Belt

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    Is this a gimmick or something?
     
  14. piglord

    piglord Black Belt

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    you never break character, i'll give you that.
     
  15. raketmannen

    raketmannen Brown Belt

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    Very dissapointing news this is, been anxiously waiting all week the barry free pick. Guess I will have to subscribe then
     
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  16. EzFlyer

    EzFlyer Senior Moderator Staff Member Senior Moderator

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    i still think he's the side, but i hedged a lil just now, too. still a solid bet for me, tho.
     
  17. EzFlyer

    EzFlyer Senior Moderator Staff Member Senior Moderator

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    ok, i know i said this last week on piccolotti. (tho i thought he freakin won rd 2 and 3 but whatever).

    alcantara is the better striker, wrestler, and bjj'er. yes, he's wildly inconsistent but he has every freakin advantage here besides age? lol. -175 i'm taking it, f it. 1.75u
     
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  18. RuthlessRich

    RuthlessRich Ghost

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    Yeah i definitely can see alcantara winning this easily, his opponent is a weasel who likes to sneak in those decisions tho but im still confident in alcantara

    anyone think that fight doesnt go distance -130 for giles/neto is a good bet? fight going distance is -110 but i can see giles stopping neto or neto pulling off a sub
     
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  19. EzFlyer

    EzFlyer Senior Moderator Staff Member Senior Moderator

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