UFC Vegas 74: Kai Kara-France vs. Amir Albazi, June 3

Munoz and Arce are not on the same planet in terms of striking. You do understand there are levels right, despite seeing obvious things on tape?
Casrenada was also outstriking Santos untill he wasent. Munoz has no power to get respect from Santos and force him to back off. He hates pressure and even bum fighters like Ludovic can bring out panic in him. Of course he can time a good lvl change under Santos, get a few minutes of control time to burn the clock. I dont see him finishing and when he gets up Santos will go back to pressuring and doing damage. He has seen this type of gameplan against way better opponents when he was only a kid in Russia.
1-1 against Russians, looked bad in both outings, and it was like 4 years ago. how was he a kid? he has very little fights. What makes them better? I never said Munoz is like Arce, he has the jab in his arsenal to pull off the upset, that's all.

Santos has a lot of flaws in his defense, he swings wide and it leaves him vulnerable to a right punch down the middle, Munoz has a decent jab and a decent straight, maybe not enough to ko but enough to score points as he mixes in wrestling.

Last i already acknowledged the questionable chin from Munoz, would not surprise me if he gets koed, i favor him in the scorecards because Santos tends to give up points going forward looking for bombs.
 
1-1 against Russians, looked bad in both outings, and it was like 4 years ago. how was he a kid? he has very little fights. What makes them better? I never said Munoz is like Arce, he has the jab in his arsenal to pull off the upset, that's all.

Santos has a lot of flaws in his defense, he swings wide and it leaves him vulnerable to a right punch down the middle, Munoz has a decent jab and a decent straight, maybe not enough to ko but enough to score points as he mixes in wrestling.

Last i already acknowledged the questionable chin from Munoz, would not surprise me if he gets koed, i favor him in the scorecards because Santos tends to give up points going forward looking for bombs.
Both those Russians are better fighters than Munoz. How did he look bad, because he was taken down a bunch against ellite wrestlers? Going 1-1 is fine at 24 against those guys. 4 years is a lot of time for improvement at that age. Munoz doesn't have that kind of wrestling.

'He has the jab to beat Santos the same way that Julio Arce beat Santos with' Literally ur quote comparing his jab to Arces. Arce has amazing footwork to circle out and strike on the back foot, Munoz doesn't.

He is hittable and he can be taken down I agree with everything. Its why the juiced ML is a pass. Ultimately I believe it's still a lvls fight and Munoz is getting KOed at some point and potentially even submitted. His path to dec is slim in my opinion. Especially in todays age with scoring favoring damage over control.
 
Ketlen Souza (+190) is a good play imo. She has great conditioning, athleticism, and is a dangerous finisher on the feet. Her punching power is average for the division but once she has an opponent hurt her fast hands take care of the rest. She is a dynamic striker that goes for big damaging shots to her opponents, and it allows her to win rounds at the very least if she doesn’t get opponents out of there.

Her opponent Karine Silva is a really good finisher on the mat, through both GNP and submissions. On the feet her striking is okay, but she puts a lot of power into her punches so when they land the impact is significant. While she has a fun style to watch play out there are big holes in her game for Souza to exploit. The foremost being Karine’s poor conditioning which was on display in her DWCS fight where she was breathing heavily out of her mouth by the beginning of the second round and won with a hail mary guillotine as her opponent was about to unload on her. She also has a lot of trouble getting fights to the canvas. I have only seen her shots and throws work against bottom of the barrel competition and think Souza is probably the better offensive wrestler.

There are holes in Souza’s defensive wrestling, but in recent fights she has begun digging underhooks, pushing down on the heads of her opponents, and defending takedowns correctly. Her getups have also been much improved as she used to wait for refs to stand fights up but in recent fights has begun going for leglocks, armbars, and triangles to sweep and using the cage to build back to her feet, which is what you want to see.

I think Karine needs a first-round submission or she loses this fight and probably gets knocked out in the second or third round.
 
I just placed a 1 unit bet on John Castañeda vs Muin Gafurov FDGTD @-105.
Mostly for the Muin side. Muin is swinging bombs on the feet and he has a very dangerous submission game. 17/18 wins ends before the bell rings for Muin. Very dangerous fighter.
However, he also kinda gassed against Chad Anheliger and with this being on very short notice it's not to unreasonable to think he might not be in his best shape. I don't doubt that he is a fighter that trains all the time, but he hasn't had a proper fight camp so cardio might be an issue.

Castañeda is also a dangerous fighter, he dropped Santos in his last fight, and he finished Miles John, who I think is a pretty good fighter. I think it's certainly a possibility that Castañeda finishes a gassed out Muin later in the fight.
And, we all know that Castañeda got finished in his last fight.

Finally, I think both guys feel that they need to prove themselves which should keep the action up in the fight. Castañeda coming of a loss and Muin making his UFC debut.

For me, this fight screams violence all the way. I think FDGTD @-105 or U2.5 @+115 are both excellent bets.
 
That's very unfortunate, I was looking forward to that fight.
 
This card is very difficult to bet imo. Everything looks like it's priced pretty well. I miss the covid days when the odds were so much worse.
I think its just the matchmaking. I've found myself betting far fewer fights this year compared to last, and betting about the same live. there's some juicy fights later this summer I am interested in.
 
Any thoughts on Jimmy/ Butler fight?
Jim has quite a bit of wins against UFC debuters and late replacements so he's usually focused no matter what.
Butler is 8.5 years younger and is longer(likely not bigger since he's a FW).
Also taking it on a few days notice.

Watched Butlers last 3 fights.
Definitely scrappy with decent BJJ. Not a lot of power on tape.
Butler fought a great value Jim Miller in his last fight and struggled mightily. Butler won but Luna took his back like twice and got him into deep guillotine positions.
 
Any thoughts on Jimmy/ Butler fight?
Jim has quite a bit of wins against UFC debuters and late replacements so he's usually focused no matter what.
Butler is 8.5 years younger and is longer(likely not bigger since he's a FW).
Also taking it on a few days notice.

Watched Butlers last 3 fights.
Definitely scrappy with decent BJJ. Not a lot of power on tape.
Butler fought a great value Jim Miller in his last fight and struggled mightily. Butler won but Luna took his back like twice and got him into deep guillotine positions.
jimmy-butler-eating-qio2ngj12xr0m8e8.gif
 
Any thoughts on Jimmy/ Butler fight?
Jim has quite a bit of wins against UFC debuters and late replacements so he's usually focused no matter what.
Butler is 8.5 years younger and is longer(likely not bigger since he's a FW).
Also taking it on a few days notice.

Watched Butlers last 3 fights.
Definitely scrappy with decent BJJ. Not a lot of power on tape.
Butler fought a great value Jim Miller in his last fight and struggled mightily. Butler won but Luna took his back like twice and got him into deep guillotine positions.

If Butler were to keep the fight on the feet and just kickbox with Miller he would have a decent chance of catching him with something due to how lax Jim's striking defense has become.

The problem is based on what I have seen I believe he is going to try to out-grapple Miller and his BJJ isn’t anywhere near as slick as he thinks it is. I think Miller submits him in the first or second round probably off some self-inflicted error by Butler.

I don't see any value on either side at the current betting line but the dog is probably the better play at this point.
 
Im on big Blackshear tapping, Souza not survin against Big Haired Silva and Tim Elliot gonna walk-on by Altamirano pretty heavy bet.

Ooinions on my play folks? Think I punted? Or think il get paid?
 
Ketlen Souza (+190) is a good play imo. She has great conditioning, athleticism, and is a dangerous finisher on the feet. Her punching power is average for the division but once she has an opponent hurt her fast hands take care of the rest. She is a dynamic striker that goes for big damaging shots to her opponents, and it allows her to win rounds at the very least if she doesn’t get opponents out of there.

Her opponent Karine Silva is a really good finisher on the mat, through both GNP and submissions. On the feet her striking is okay, but she puts a lot of power into her punches so when they land the impact is significant. While she has a fun style to watch play out there are big holes in her game for Souza to exploit. The foremost being Karine’s poor conditioning which was on display in her DWCS fight where she was breathing heavily out of her mouth by the beginning of the second round and won with a hail mary guillotine as her opponent was about to unload on her. She also has a lot of trouble getting fights to the canvas. I have only seen her shots and throws work against bottom of the barrel competition and think Souza is probably the better offensive wrestler.

There are holes in Souza’s defensive wrestling, but in recent fights she has begun digging underhooks, pushing down on the heads of her opponents, and defending takedowns correctly. Her getups have also been much improved as she used to wait for refs to stand fights up but in recent fights has begun going for leglocks, armbars, and triangles to sweep and using the cage to build back to her feet, which is what you want to see.

I think Karine needs a first-round submission or she loses this fight and probably gets knocked out in the second or third round.

Agree with most of this. Karine is fun and the 100% finish rate looks good on paper, but she doesn't really have any good wins.

Either does Souza, I suppose, and I don't agree that Souza is some big threat on the feet. She has a fair few KOs, but only one of those girls has a winning record. She's going to struggle to finish anyone with strikes in the UFC.

I agree that she has a big cardio edge though. She went 5 rounds and looked okay in her last fight. Decent enough chance that she could just outwork Karine.

Feeling like Karine gets it done in 1/2 or gets worked to a dec.
 
Anyone think that Altarmarino seems like a pretty easy match up for Elliot?

Unless Alarmarino is just way stronger or something and can just hold Elliot down, I don't really see how he wins. His striking is pretty ineffective, his defense is bad, and his wrestling isn't great. He gets really sloppy in later rounds too.

The Elliot that beat Tagir would do whatever he wanted to Altamarino. Hopefully that Elliot shows up.
 
Anyone think that Altarmarino seems like a pretty easy match up for Elliot?

Unless Alarmarino is just way stronger or something and can just hold Elliot down, I don't really see how he wins. His striking is pretty ineffective, his defense is bad, and his wrestling isn't great. He gets really sloppy in later rounds too.

The Elliot that beat Tagir would do whatever he wanted to Altamarino. Hopefully that Elliot shows up.
Vic is a very game guy but yeah, Elliot should handle him while fresh. His head might not be in the right place however, so I'm passing.
 

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