UFC Vegas 74: Kai Kara-France vs. Amir Albazi, June 3

[Tebowned]

I liked the Santos side when this fight was originally scheduled to be on a PPV card, but then it got rescheduled to a small cage in the APEX, which favors Munoz's style.

If you're taking Santos, you should wait and live bet him after Round 1.

Edit: "A bantamweight bout between Daniel Santos and Johnny Muñoz Jr. was expected to take place on May 6, but it was scratched after Santos withdrew due to an undisclosed injury." They were then rescheduled to fight one month later.

I would argue the small cage favors Santos. I'd be more willing to bet Munoz with the bigger cage.

Santos is a pressure fighter who rarely can cut off the cage so he'll chase his opponents all over.
Munoz is likely gonna be on his bicycle similar to his last fight striking to counter and mix in wrestling.

Just my opinion of course.

 

[Jinx_AA]

Guram out for fuck sakes

inahd him on 8 tickets

he was my parlay piece parlay builder

fakkkkk!

 

[Danis_champ]

Guram out for fuck sakes

inahd him on 8 tickets

he was my parlay piece parlay builder

fakkkkk!

Damn it!

 

[FimbulFightPicks]

Excited to see Guram again. Very high level fighter.

Of course it got cancelled.

 

[Stat_Collector]

I liked the Santos side when this fight was originally scheduled to be on a PPV card, but then it got rescheduled to a small cage in the APEX, which favors Munoz's style.

If you're taking Santos, you should wait and live bet him after Round 1.

Edit: "A bantamweight bout between Daniel Santos and Johnny Muñoz Jr. was expected to take place on May 6, but it was scratched after Santos withdrew due to an undisclosed injury." They were then rescheduled to fight one month later.

for sure. it will be a back and forth fight, unless Munoz gets koed, but i suspect he's going grappling heavy.

 

[UFCIsNOTRigged]

I think Munoz jr is the sleeper dog pick. Better jab and a better grappler. the odds don’t make sense. Santos was getting his ass kicked by Casteneda until he blew his fuse. He also has been grappled fked before and has basic getups.

Munoz has poor conditioning, bad takedowns, is low volume, and only dangerous on the feet with his kicks. Santos has been susceptible in his first two UFC fights to head-kicks but Munoz doesn't throw his head-kick consistently enough that I would have any confidence in him landing it.

I don't see a meaningful grappling advantage for either guy and after how mightily Munoz has struggled to get past opponents to the ground I don't see him getting Santos to the canvas unless he knocks him down.

There isn't value on Santos anymore at his current betting line but that doesn't mean there is value on Munoz. The odds look about right imo.

 

[Stat_Collector]

Munoz has poor conditioning, bad takedowns, is low volume, and only dangerous on the feet with his kicks. Santos has been susceptible in his first two UFC fights to head-kicks but Munoz doesn't throw his head-kick consistently enough that I would have any confidence in him landing it.

I don't see a meaningful grappling advantage for either guy and after how mightily Munoz has struggled to get past opponents to the ground I don't see him getting Santos to the canvas unless he knocks him down.

There isn't value on Santos anymore at his current betting line but that doesn't mean there is value on Munoz. The odds look about right imo.

‘bad takedowns’

By what standards?

Jamie was a D3 wrestler, scored two takedowns.

Liudvik was and Armanian college level wrestler. Scored two takedowns.

And Tony was D1 but the fight ended quickly.

Nate Maness got taken down and controlled for 10 mins. Munoz got robbed. Nate should have lost that fight. Santos grappling defense is a lot closer to Nate than any of the college wrestlers above. Go and watch Santos fight against the Russian , its on youtube, search it by the event. His wrestling defense is average like Nate.


lastly Santos isn’t great at blitzing, he was a literal punching bag and then manage to survive and punish a gassy John.

Any fighter who has a flat performance like that should not be a -200 favorite over anyone. One of the biggest traps in the bookmaking and tap voting community is over value a regional fighter who just transitioned recently. It can be a good dog and a bad favorite when a fresh new fighter enters ufc because of lack of references from untaped fights.

 

[UFCIsNOTRigged]

‘bad takedowns’

By what standards?

Jamie was a D3 wrestler, scored two takedowns.

Liudvik was and Armanian college level wrestler. Scored two takedowns.

And Tony was D1 but the fight ended quickly.

Nate Maness got taken down and controlled for 10 mins. Munoz got robbed. Nate should have lost that fight. Santos grappling defense is a lot closer to Nate than any of the college wrestlers above. Go and watch Santos fight against the Russian , its on youtube, search it by the event. His wrestling defense is average like Nate.


lastly Santos isn’t great at blitzing, he was a literal punching bag and then manage to survive and punish a gassy John.

Any fighter who has a flat performance like that should not be a -200 favorite over anyone. One of the biggest traps in the bookmaking and tap voting community is over value a regional fighter who just transitioned recently. It can be a good dog and a bad favorite when a fresh new fighter enters ufc because of lack of references from untaped fights.

Jamey Simmons caught Johnny with a right uppercut off of a telegraphed takedown in the first round of their fight. In his very next fight Johnny level-changed onto a right uppercut and was knocked unconscious on impact. Munoz has poor takedown shot selection and isn't very good at getting fights to the floor in the first place. He went 2/16 on takedowns against Nate Maness who is the best striker he has fought and imo the only UFC level fighter he has been somewhat competitive with.

Santos was controlled by Murad Kalamov in the first round of their fight but he wasn't accepting the takedowns, was consistently building back to his feet, and as the fight went on was defending them and catching his opponent on their way in.

The consistent forward pressure of Santos wore on his last opponent, drained their gas-tank, and eventually he was able to finish them. I think Santos will force a bad shot out of Munoz and catch him in a choke or run him onto a knee with his pressure.

Muin Gafurov (+120) and Ketlen Souza (+190) are better dogs.

 

[Stat_Collector]

Jamey Simmons caught Johnny with a right uppercut off of a telegraphed takedown in the first round of their fight. In his very next fight Johnny level-changed onto a right uppercut and was knocked unconscious on impact. Munoz has poor takedown shot selection and isn't very good at getting fights to the floor in the first place. He went 2/16 on takedowns against Nate Maness who is the best striker he has fought and imo the only UFC level fighter he has been somewhat competitive with.

Santos was controlled by Murad Kalamov in the first round of their fight but he wasn't accepting the takedowns, was consistently building back to his feet, and as the fight went on was defending them and catching his opponent on their way in.

The consistent forward pressure of Santos wore on his last opponent, drained their gas-tank, and eventually he was able to finish them. I think Santos will catch Munoz in a choke or run him onto a knee with his pressure.

I think Muin Gafurov and Ketlen Souza are better dogs.

Casteneda was the one putting on the pressure first, Santos didn’t forward step until John gassed.

The high td attempts by munoz is from chain wrestling from the cage position which is deceptive stats. in the end he did control Nate.

I also don’t believe Munoz has to wrestle to beat Santos, he throws more constant jabs and long range kicks. Being low volume actually works for his benefit because he has good cardio management.

And Santos isn’t going to sub him. 2 subs vs 7 subs and a history of competing in bjj black belt tournaments makes that less likely.

 

[UFCIsNOTRigged]

Casteneda was the one putting on the pressure first, Santos didn’t forward step until John gassed.

The high td attempts by munoz is from chain wrestling from the cage position which is deceptive stats. in the end he did control Nate.

I also don’t believe Munoz has to wrestle to beat Santos, he throws more constant jabs and long range kicks. Being low volume actually works for his benefit because he has good cardio management.

And Santos isn’t going to sub him. 2 subs vs 7 subs and a history of competing in bjj black belt tournaments makes that less likely.

Castaneda was moving well laterally but Santos was definitely the one pressing forward and applying the pressure. John caught Santos with a left head kick while Santos was pressing forward, then knocked Santos down with a straight left hand as Santos was pressing forward, and then buckled the knees of Santos with a left head kick as Santos was pressing forward.

Munoz does have a good jab and his striking has consistently looked better fight to fight but he is still not a comfortable striker. His striking looks good, as it did in the first and second round of his last fight, when his opponents are giving him space and allowing him to dictate the pace as he picks at them from range. When his opponents are the ones pressing forward and put him on his backfoot, as in the third round of his last fight, his volume dissipates, he becomes stationary and thus easier to hit, and makes poor decisions such as taking ill-advised shots.

The pressure of Santos is going to break Munoz imo just as Liudvik began to do in the third round of his last fight and as Gravely did when he forced Johnny to level change into the uppercut he had waiting for him. It's not that I don't think Munoz can win I just don't see value in him lower than +300 and he is currently only a +185 dog.

 

[Stat_Collector]

Castaneda was moving well laterally but Santos was definitely the one pressing forward and applying the pressure. John caught Santos with a left head kick while Santos was pressing forward, then knocked Santos down with a straight left hand as Santos was pressing forward, and then buckled the knees of Santos with a left head kick as Santos was pressing forward.

Munoz does have a good jab and his striking has consistently looked better fight to fight but he is still not a comfortable striker. His striking looks good, as it did in the first and second round of his last fight, when his opponents are giving him space and allowing him to dictate the pace as he picks at them from range. When his opponents are the ones pressing forward and put him on his backfoot, as in the third round of his last fight, his volume dissipates, he becomes stationary and thus easier to hit, and makes poor decisions such as taking ill-advised shots.

The pressure of Santos is going to break Munoz imo just as Liudvik began to do in the third round of his last fight and as Gravely did when he forced Johnny to level change into the uppercut he had waiting for him. It's not that I don't think Munoz can win I just don't see value in him lower than +300 and he is currently only a +185 dog.

300+ seems exaggerated. If you imagine what if Munoz got the nod against Nate Maness without the groin strike, the odds for this fight would look different. Remember that John lost by two regional fighters in a mexican org before coming to the ufc, that win doesn't really place Santos at a high level because of it. I see two athletic young guys trying to claw for position in the mid tier level, no need to assume he merits a -180 odds like Santos is the next Charles Oliviera when he has had soso performances in the regionals and nearly koed his last fight.

 

[BigSteve]

300+ seems exaggerated. If you imagine what if Munoz got the nod against Nate Maness without the groin strike, the odds for this fight would look different. Remember that John lost by two regional fighters in a mexican org before coming to the ufc, that win doesn't really place Santos at a high level because of it. I see two athletic young guys trying to claw for position in the mid tier level, no need to assume he merits a -180 odds like Santos is the next Charles Oliviera when he has had soso performances in the regionals and nearly koed his last fight.

it wouldn't really because Nate is also not great, and thats not the reason odds are like that. Its because Munoz hasent fought anyone good, and Santos is lvls above someone like Nate as well. As is Cast. He might give up some positions because he is reckless, eventually he will put out Munoz who is flakey.

 

[Stat_Collector]

it wouldn't really because Nate is also not great, and thats not the reason odds are like that. Its because Munoz hasent fought anyone good, and Santos is lvls above someone like Nate as well. As is Cast. He might give up some positions because he is reckless, eventually he will put out Munoz who is flakey.

There is a lot of blanket statements that are simply not true.

Nate Maness top wins: Gravely , Luke Sanders, Jesse Arnett
His only losses are against good guys: Taylor Lupilus(good fighter ares champion) Umar and Tagir who are sub clones of Khabib . .

John Casteneda: Miles Johns, Marcelo Rojo, Wineland. Miles is his best win.
John's losses : Brown retired 11-7( not the matt brown from wec) Levy Manoquin (a local fighter who only fights regional level mexican fighters) Jose Alday (like who is that?) Nate wood and Santos.

By these simple career wins and losses you can come to the conclusion that Nate would not lose to most of the guys that beat John except Nathaniel Wood. He just isn't as great as his cherry picked record suggest.

I acknowledge that Munoz can get caught and he has a questionable chin, but you can't deny that Munoz does several things better than Santos, like wrestling and bjj passes to subs, and has a better jab. Santos isn't good at throwing overhands like Gravely, he is a guy that breaks people down with kicks and knees. Munoz is a bigger guy with bigger reach, easy to see him jab santos and mix in wrestling to a close narrow decision.

 

[GoldenWolf87]

I had to change my bets due to the some of the fighters that are out.

sports interaction for some reason has not yet added Tim Elliott vs Victor Altamirano fight.
not sure why.

 

[BigSteve]

There is a lot of blanket statements that are simply not true.

Nate Maness top wins: Gravely , Luke Sanders, Jesse Arnett
His only losses are against good guys: Taylor Lupilus(good fighter ares champion) Umar and Tagir who are sub clones of Khabib . .

John Casteneda: Miles Johns, Marcelo Rojo, Wineland. Miles is his best win.
John's losses : Brown retired 11-7( not the matt brown from wec) Levy Manoquin (a local fighter who only fights regional level mexican fighters) Jose Alday (like who is that?) Nate wood and Santos.

By these simple career wins and losses you can come to the conclusion that Nate would not lose to most of the guys that beat John except Nathaniel Wood. He just isn't as great as his cherry picked record suggest.

I acknowledge that Munoz can get caught and he has a questionable chin, but you can't deny that Munoz does several things better than Santos, like wrestling and bjj passes to subs, and has a better jab. Santos isn't good at throwing overhands like Gravely, he is a guy that breaks people down with kicks and knees. Munoz is a bigger guy with bigger reach, easy to see him jab santos and mix in wrestling to a close narrow decision.

They are statements I made based on taping and caping each fighter. You dont have to agree with them, dosent make them wrong. Nothing about them is blanket. I taped every single Castenadas fight including that Brown KO which was an early stoppage. I played him as a dog over Johns who is a flake and played Santos against him as a dog. Cast also beat Beal via flying knee KO who was in the UFC and a decent prospect from TUF and Leialoha on the first season of Contender series who was 6-0 at the time and now 8-2. He was UFC ready back in 2017 and has fought some of the best regional Mexican dudes including Manoquin who u mentioned and is quite good and Gustavo Lopez who was also in the UFC and is now the Oktagon champ. Jose Alday was also on Contender Series, you really should know who he is.

You legit can't make that conclusion unless you are committed to your narrative. Without catching Gravley in a fight where he was getting his shit pushed in, and a robbery win over Munoz Jr who is only a good jits fighter, Maness would have no notable wins in his whole career. Jesse Arnett is out there getting dominated by Al Quaisi in three different fights LOL. Again I dont understand how Johns Castas record is cherry-picked when he fought everyone on the regionals, UFC vets, the best dudes in Combate who ended up in the UFC, contender series and then had to fight Wood on short notice. Meanwhile, Johny Munoz Jr ACTUALLY received cherry-picked opponents in two non-UFC bums in Simons and Ludovic. Fights in which he was underwhelming. His regional record is atrocious. The only skill I would give Munoz over Santos is pure Jit's game on top. His wrestling sucks, he has ok entries on the hips and then hits a wall because he has no penetration. His best TD is when he locks his hands around the waist against the cage. Santos hands down has better wrestling and is a black belt under Lima. He is good at throwing overhands, you only have to tape any of his fights outside of the UFC. Not that Gravley caught Munoz with an overhand anyway. And if anyone cares, John Cast is also a way better wrestler than Johny Munoz.

 

[Captain Chesapeake]

There is a lot of blanket statements that are simply not true.

Nate Maness top wins: Gravely , Luke Sanders, Jesse Arnett
His only losses are against good guys: Taylor Lupilus(good fighter ares champion) Umar and Tagir who are sub clones of Khabib . .

John Casteneda: Miles Johns, Marcelo Rojo, Wineland. Miles is his best win.
John's losses : Brown retired 11-7( not the matt brown from wec) Levy Manoquin (a local fighter who only fights regional level mexican fighters) Jose Alday (like who is that?) Nate wood and Santos.

By these simple career wins and losses you can come to the conclusion that Nate would not lose to most of the guys that beat John except Nathaniel Wood. He just isn't as great as his cherry picked record suggest.

I acknowledge that Munoz can get caught and he has a questionable chin, but you can't deny that Munoz does several things better than Santos, like wrestling and bjj passes to subs, and has a better jab. Santos isn't good at throwing overhands like Gravely, he is a guy that breaks people down with kicks and knees. Munoz is a bigger guy with bigger reach, easy to see him jab santos and mix in wrestling to a close narrow decision.

I was triggered by this wikicapping nonsensical response. I’m glad Steve gave you a proper rebuttal

 

[Stat_Collector]

They are statements I made based on taping and caping each fighter. You dont have to agree with them, dosent make them wrong. Nothing about them is blanket. I taped every single Castenadas fight including that Brown KO which was an early stoppage. I played him as a dog over Johns who is a flake and played Santos against him as a dog. Cast also beat Beal via flying knee KO who was in the UFC and a decent prospect from TUF and Leialoha on the first season of Contender series who was 6-0 at the time and now 8-2. He was UFC ready back in 2017 and has fought some of the best regional Mexican dudes including Manoquin who u mentioned and is quite good and Gustavo Lopez who was also in the UFC and is now the Oktagon champ. Jose Alday was also on Contender Series, you really should know who he is.

You legit can't make that conclusion unless you are committed to your narrative. Without catching Gravley in a fight where he was getting his shit pushed in, and a robbery win over Munoz Jr who is only a good jits fighter, Maness would have no notable wins in his whole career. Jesse Arnett is out there getting dominated by Al Quaisi in three different fights LOL. Again I dont understand how Johns Castas record is cherry-picked when he fought everyone on the regionals, UFC vets, the best dudes in Combate who ended up in the UFC, contender series and then had to fight Wood on short notice. Meanwhile, Johny Munoz Jr ACTUALLY received cherry-picked opponents in two non-UFC bums in Simons and Ludovic. Fights in which he was underwhelming. His regional record is atrocious. The only skill I would give Munoz over Santos is pure Jit's game on top. His wrestling sucks, he has ok entries on the hips and then hits a wall because he has no penetration. His best TD is when he locks his hands around the waist against the cage. Santos hands down has better wrestling and is a black belt under Lima. He is good at throwing overhands, you only have to tape any of his fights outside of the UFC. Not that Gravley caught Munoz with an overhand anyway. And if anyone cares, John Cast is also a way better wrestler than Johny Munoz.

None of the wins you brought up are that great, you are trying to make an argument for Alday and Manoquin being not so bad, but he didn't even beat them so why even try to credit those? those guys are irrelevant in mma , so what Alday fought in contender, he lost.

Combate is a very weak league in general , mma is very new to mexico, and mexico has a weak wrestling program. Good boxers , average grappling, if anything the best fighters from mexico tend to go to boxing over mma.
I would not say that Nate has a big win in his record that far exceeds John but he sure doesn't have those losses against guys who are plane average.
Like I said earlier those guys that Munoz beat all had solid wrestling backgrounds, you can break down the nuances but the fact is he did take those guys down and beat them when they are more accomplished grapplers than Santos.
Lastly Munoz doesn't need to use grappling only to win, he has the jab to beat Santos the same way that Julio Arce beat Santos with. Santos isn't a complicated fighter, he walks in a straight line and gets hit often. Its not just about wrestling, Munoz has the kicks and range control to beat Santos.

I was triggered by this wikicapping nonsensical response. I’m glad Steve gave you a proper rebuttal

How do you always ignore 50% of my post where i bring up tape all the time?

Fighters ARE their record, I told you Dern beat like 4/5 opponents who beat Hill and you still insisted it didn't matter, i'm not saying record capping is be all end all, but ignoring simple facts is not good for betting.

 

[Captain Chesapeake]

None of the wins you brought up are that great, you are trying to make an argument for Alday and Manoquin being not so bad, but he didn't even beat them so why even try to credit those? those guys are irrelevant in mma , so what Alday fought in contender, he lost.

Combate is a very weak league in general , mma is very new to mexico, and mexico has a weak wrestling program. Good boxers , average grappling, if anything the best fighters from mexico tend to go to boxing over mma.
I would not say that Nate has a big win in his record that far exceeds John but he sure doesn't have those losses against guys who are plane average.
Like I said earlier those guys that Munoz beat all had solid wrestling backgrounds, you can break down the nuances but the fact is he did take those guys down and beat them when they are more accomplished grapplers than Santos.
Lastly Munoz doesn't need to use grappling only to win, he has the jab to beat Santos the same way that Julio Arce beat Santos with. Santos isn't a complicated fighter, he walks in a straight line and gets hit often. Its not just about wrestling, Munoz has the kicks and range control to beat Santos.



How do you always ignore 50% of my post where i bring up tape all the time?

Fighters ARE their record, I told you Dern beat like 4/5 opponents who beat Hill and you still insisted it didn't matter, i'm not saying record capping is be all end all, but ignoring simple facts is not good for betting.

You also told me angie didn’t know how to defend subs and had to cheat vs virna.

you’re really the one making blanket statements

 

[ExitLUPin]

Love Elizeu at even odds against Abubakar. Guessing time off from suspension is playing heavy here because I cap him -200 at least pre layoff and I don't think he's suddenly gonna be rusty and lost.

Willycat and Elizeu Brazilian parlay pays + money. Gotta love it. On it big.

 

[BigSteve]

None of the wins you brought up are that great, you are trying to make an argument for Alday and Manoquin being not so bad, but he didn't even beat them so why even try to credit those? those guys are irrelevant in mma , so what Alday fought in contender, he lost.

Combate is a very weak league in general , mma is very new to mexico, and mexico has a weak wrestling program. Good boxers , average grappling, if anything the best fighters from mexico tend to go to boxing over mma.
I would not say that Nate has a big win in his record that far exceeds John but he sure doesn't have those losses against guys who are plane average.
Like I said earlier those guys that Munoz beat all had solid wrestling backgrounds, you can break down the nuances but the fact is he did take those guys down and beat them when they are more accomplished grapplers than Santos.
Lastly Munoz doesn't need to use grappling only to win, he has the jab to beat Santos the same way that Julio Arce beat Santos with. Santos isn't a complicated fighter, he walks in a straight line and gets hit often. Its not just about wrestling, Munoz has the kicks and range control to beat Santos.



How do you always ignore 50% of my post where i bring up tape all the time?

Fighters ARE their record, I told you Dern beat like 4/5 opponents who beat Hill and you still insisted it didn't matter, i'm not saying record capping is be all end all, but ignoring simple facts is not good for betting.

Munoz and Arce are not on the same planet in terms of striking. You do understand there are levels right, despite seeing obvious things on tape?
Casrenada was also outstriking Santos untill he wasent. Munoz has no power to get respect from Santos and force him to back off. He hates pressure and even bum fighters like Ludovic can bring out panic in him. Of course he can time a good lvl change under Santos, get a few minutes of control time to burn the clock. I dont see him finishing and when he gets up Santos will go back to pressuring and doing damage. He has seen this type of gameplan against way better opponents when he was only a kid in Russia.