UFC Vegas 72: Yadong Song vs. Ricky Simon, April 29

Danis_champ said:
I'm one of those that don't understand that line movement.

Okay Kelleher is getting old but...

Newson has weak TDD and Kelleher is quite okay wrestler and can take him down. Newson tends to expose his back to get back up so expect Kelleher back takes.

If that fight stays on the feet for 15 minutes then Journey might win but otherwise I don't see it happening.

What is Journey(mans) path to victory?
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Newson isnt much younger himself in actual age. Kelleher more fights but I dont see how that counts against him. I say the experience just counts as a plus for him against pretty mediocre Newson (fom what we have seen of him in the ufc). Newson hasn't really beaten anyone in the ufc if you dont count he weed stoppage over Pilarte. Well you can count hat one as a win actually. But I dont see reason for the line to be this close. Meanwhile Kelleher so far has only lost to guys that should beat him and he has pulled few upsets himself. He is opposite of flake.
 
sonhow said:
Newson isnt much younger himself in actual age. Kelleher more fights but I dont see how that counts against him. I say the experience just counts as a plus for him against pretty mediocre Newson (fom what we have seen of him in the ufc). Newson hasn't really beaten anyone in the ufc if you dont count he weed stoppage over Pilarte. Well you can count hat one as a win actually. But I dont see reason for the line to be this close. Meanwhile Kelleher so far has only lost to guys that should beat him and he has pulled few upsets himself. He is opposite of flake.
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Newson was 7-2-1 as an amateur, 3 rounds with Ricky Simon, he's been around for a long time (2011), experience only plays a huge roll when it's a new fighter. By age alone like you said, he's 34, so how much wide is the experience gap? after 20 fights both Amateur and pro, the experience reaches its ceiling. Anyone who takes a time to retape Newson vs Fern and retapes any of Kelleher's last fights can see that Newson has a speed advantage, and is better at using his straight kicks to control range. Kelleher has one fight left in his contract.

lastly addressing the grappling, Newson manage to escape Ramos and Sergey back takes, he has good wrist control and uses it to explode out from the ground. This is one of those trap fights where people will look at a record and make a snap judgement. Once you make peace with the fact that Brian can't submit Newson and his top ctrl isn't on par with Sergey, it's easy to see the value on Newson.
 
Stat_Collector said:
Newson was 7-2-1 as an amateur, 3 rounds with Ricky Simon, he's been around for a long time (2011), experience only plays a huge roll when it's a new fighter. By age alone like you said, he's 34, so how much wide is the experience gap? after 20 fights both Amateur and pro, the experience reaches its ceiling. Anyone who takes a time to retape Newson vs Fern and retapes any of Kelleher's last fights can see that Newson has a speed advantage, and is better at using his straight kicks to control range. Kelleher has one fight left in his contract.

lastly addressing the grappling, Newson manage to escape Ramos and Sergey back takes, he has good wrist control and uses it to explode out from the ground. This is one of those trap fights where people will look at a record and make a snap judgement. Once you make peace with the fact that Brian can't submit Newson and his top ctrl isn't on par with Sergey, it's easy to see the value on Newson.
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Hmmm sounds like you taped Newson well enough. He doesnt really cause any strong feelings so its hard to remember this guy and then its true that maybe this is trap fight. Kelleher aint elite but reliable against certain level of competition but if the matchup plays like you laid it out...Gotta maybe tape Newson myself. Kelleher I know well enough.
 
sonhow said:
Hmmm sounds like you taped Newson well enough. He doesnt really cause any strong feelings so its hard to remember this guy and then its true that maybe this is trap fight. Kelleher aint elite but reliable against certain level of competition but if the matchup plays like you laid it out...Gotta maybe tape Newson myself. Kelleher I know well enough.
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my worst case scenario is Newson gets caught by a looping hook or Kelleher does in fact look like Sergey and blankets him. But i don't see it, Sergey had success on the feet cause he has nice kicks and was able to keep up with Newson. Kellerher is going to get hit more due to being less skilled in the range, he tends to chase and look for big hooks, i see him playing into Journey's hands as he kicks him and jabs outside while weaving away from danger.
 
Stat_Collector said:
the two wins on Lopita likely the reason , im not on that for wmma. I actually think the value is now on Hailey.

Look up the fight against Laframboise. She got dropped and cage stalled a long time. She seems like one of those girls who just has decent size and strength and gets by on her gifts, but she is not very good technique wise. if the line keeps moving, im going to put Hailey in a parlay with my other picks.
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Cowan getting club and subbed by then 1-2 Kelly Clayton is more concerning to me than Horth getting knocked down by a good fighter that she later finished.
 
UFCIsNOTRigged said:
Cowan getting club and subbed by then 1-2 Kelly Clayton is more concerning to me than Horth getting knocked down by a good fighter that she later finished.
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not necessarily 1-2 , 6-3 ammy, 1 exhibition, 7-5 total , including a kickboxing match. Cowan got hit with a flash knockdown in round 3 where she was winning most of the fight. I think also calling Horth's opponent a good fighter is a reach. Horth is a muay thai fighter by trade and she got dropped by a less experience striker. Anyways i'm not sold yet on Haily, still waiting for bov to allow prop bets .
 
Stat_Collector said:
not necessarily 1-2 , 6-3 ammy, 1 exhibition, 7-5 total , including a kickboxing match. Cowan got hit with a flash knockdown in round 3 where she was winning most of the fight. I think also calling Horth's opponent a good fighter is a reach. Horth is a muay thai fighter by trade and she got dropped by a less experience striker. Anyways i'm not sold yet on Haily, still waiting for bov to allow prop bets .
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The knockdown and subsuequent submission occurred in the first minute of the second round not the third round. Cowan also definitely lost the first round with all the submission attempts her thirty six year old opponent attempted so you must be thinking of a different fight.

The woman who knocked Horth down won five of her next six fights and is the UAE Warriors Flyweight champion. I would definitely consider her a good fighter. The woman who knocked Cowan down never fought again.
 
UFCIsNOTRigged said:
The knockdown and subsuequent submission occurred in the first minute of the second round not the third round. Cowan also definitely lost the first round with all the submission attempts her thirty six year old opponent attempted so you must be thinking of a different fight.

The woman who knocked Horth down won five of her next six fights and is the UAE Warriors Flyweight champion. I would definitely consider her a good fighter. The woman who knocked Cowan down never fought again.
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submission attempts while being on your back for 4 minutes doesn't win you a round. Im not really sold here on either one.

Laframboise UAE run happen after not before she lost. considering she lost to a low level fighter in 2018, she still had not come into her form.

This is wmma in the end, it's volatile, and Horth hasn't fought since 2021. Activity is something i always take into account. If Horth has gotten cage stalled and grounded on her back, which she has in previous fights. There should not be a reason why Hailey can't possibly do the same.

If this conversation has accomplished one thing, is that i should just fade.
 
Stat_Collector said:
submission attempts while being on your back for 4 minutes doesn't win you a round. Im not really sold here on either one.

Laframboise UAE run happen after not before she lost. considering she lost to a low level fighter in 2018, she still had not come into her form.

This is wmma in the end, it's volatile, and Horth hasn't fought since 2021. Activity is something i always take into account. If Horth has gotten cage stalled and grounded on her back, which she has in previous fights. There should not be a reason why Hailey can't possibly do the same.

If this conversation has accomplished one thing, is that i should just fade.
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Horth usually fights at 125 and this fight is at 135 so yes her being wall and stalled is a big concern given that she has been controlled, albeit for short periods of time, on the cage wall in the past.

I played Horth ITD (Decision No Action) just in case Cowan is able to wall-and-stall for three rounds. I wouldn't rush to bet Horth at her current betting line since like you said she has not fought in three years but I wouldn't consider playing Cowan either given her lack of easily discernable skills.
 
I bet Durden at +145 earlier in the week (actually missed him at +150) and now he’s down to +115. Anyone know what’s up on this wild line movement?
 
StewDogg11 said:
I bet Durden at +145 earlier in the week (actually missed him at +150) and now he’s down to +115. Anyone know what’s up on this wild line movement?
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Probably because of how good he's looked in his last two, while Charles has had some flat performances.
 
Stat_Collector said:
Michal vs Caio who you got?
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Caio, but not touching him at his current price.

Michal always struggled heavily with grappling when he fought bigger guys, and while he won't have to worry about being at a massive size disadvantage for the most part anymore, I still wouldn't favor him over any grappler until he's proved that he's not out of his depth there anymore.

If Caio were a less prudent BJJ guy I'd say Michal would have a chance to either steal the fight or land enough for a finish, but it's hard to see that happening since Borralho is very smart with his approach. Having said that, if a sub doesn't materialize this could turn into one of those contentious decisions where the judges side with the guy landing strikes despite being outgrappled for long stretches of time.

I don't like counting on judges tho, so if I had to pick anything for this fight I'd probably go with Michal's KO line since it's pretty swollen.
 
Thesnake101 said:
Caio, but not touching him at his current price.

Michal always struggled heavily with grappling when he fought bigger guys, and while he won't have to worry about being at a massive size disadvantage for the most part anymore, I still wouldn't favor him over any grappler until he's proved that he's not out of his depth there anymore.

If Caio were a less prudent BJJ guy I'd say Michal would have a chance to either steal the fight or land enough for a finish, but it's hard to see that happening since Borralho is very smart with his approach. Having said that, if a sub doesn't materialize this could turn into one of those contentious decisions where the judges side with the guy landing strikes despite being outgrappled for long stretches of time.

I don't like counting on judges tho, so if I had to pick anything for this fight I'd probably go with Michal's KO line since it's pretty swollen.
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yeah pretty much exactly how i see it. I tried to get an argument going that maybe Caio has too weak a submission game, and Michal can getup off the ground pretty well. But i just get the sense that Caio will body triangle Michal for 3 rounds, and Caio is also competent on the feet as well. At one point i gave up and just focused on more probable outcomes elsewhere. I do believe Caio is set to get exposed very soon.
 
Stat_Collector said:
yeah pretty much exactly how i see it. I tried to get an argument going that maybe Caio has too weak a submission game, and Michal can getup off the ground pretty well. But i just get the sense that Caio will body triangle Michal for 3 rounds, and Caio is also competent on the feet as well. At one point i gave up and just focused on more probable outcomes elsewhere. I do believe Caio is set to get exposed very soon.
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Yeah, Caio's control is pretty good even if his killer instinct is trash. I'm also of the mindset that Caio will eventually hit a wall, but that's probably going to come when he starts meeting ranked fighters.
 
I'm failing to see how Brundage isn't the best dog on this card. Normally I'd be really iffy on him, but he actually has great defensive wrestling and Viera is a lost cause if he can't get takedowns.
 
Danis_champ said:
Viera underrated striker. Wouldn't be surprised if it stays on the feet and Rodolfo wins 30-27.
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Vieira seems to have a good chin as well. He got battered by Anthony Hernandez in the second and ate a few head kicks while panicked and completely gassed, but didn’t seem that hurt by them.
 
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