UFC Vegas 72: Yadong Song vs. Ricky Simon, April 29

Funny9527 said:
Does anyone know about Pete Rodriguez's wrestling defense and jiu-jitsu skills? I believe Levy wouldn't stand a chance against him in a standing fight.
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I haven't watched any tape yet for this weeks fight but I have in the past seen all of their professional fights and I don't agree with this. Levy has good striking, in particular the kicks, but his punching is fine and everything is thrown technically perfect. He is definitely the better striker from a technical standpoint. Levy does yield too much ground and can be overly kick-heavy at times from what I remember but his biggest issue has always been fighting to the level of his opposition.

Rodriguez may have a speed advantage and did appear to have big punching power when he was fighting up at WW but he wasn't fighting opponents anywhere near the level of Levy. Fighters at the UFC level tend to be a lot more durable.

Rodriguez did some grappling in one of his amateur fights but there isn't much out there from what I remember.
 
UFCIsNOTRigged said:
I haven't watched any tape yet for this weeks fight but I have in the past seen all of their professional fights and I don't agree with this. Levy has good striking, in particular the kicks, but his punching is fine and everything is thrown technically perfect. He is definitely the better striker from a technical standpoint. Levy does yield too much ground and can be overly kick-heavy at times from what I remember but his biggest issue has always been fighting to the level of his opposition.

Rodriguez may have a speed advantage and did appear to have big punching power when he was fighting up at WW but he wasn't fighting opponents anywhere near the level of Levy. Fighters at the UFC level tend to be a lot more durable.

Rodriguez did some grappling in one of his amateur fights but there isn't much out there from what I remember.
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I think it'll boil down to which guy gasses first. For someone that's gone the distance in most of his fights, Natan is pretty gassy and has horrible body language. The way he looked against Breeden was in some spots late was appalling, like almost Dada 5000 type body language.

It's weird because Natan doesn't seem like someone who wilts mentally, but his body seems like it looks to betray that at times. Pete shouldn't be the guy to take advantage of that though, he's just too unproven to be dragging someone into deep waters. Not impossible he catches Levy early however.
 
Thesnake101 said:
I think it'll boil down to which guy gasses first. For someone that's gone the distance in most of his fights, Natan is pretty gassy and has horrible body language. The way he looked against Breeden was in some spots late was appalling, like almost Dada 5000 type body language.

It's weird because Natan doesn't seem like someone who wilts mentally, but his body seems like it looks to betray that at times. Pete shouldn't be the guy to take advantage of that though, he's just too unproven to be dragging someone into deep waters. Not impossible he catches Levy early however.
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Agree, if the round 1 prop for Pete is somewhat good i'll consider that. I think he could catch Levy in round 1, if not I think Levy takes it pretty convincingly.
 
UFCIsNOTRigged said:
I haven't watched any tape yet for this weeks fight but I have in the past seen all of their professional fights and I don't agree with this. Levy has good striking, in particular the kicks, but his punching is fine and everything is thrown technically perfect. He is definitely the better striker from a technical standpoint. Levy does yield too much ground and can be overly kick-heavy at times from what I remember but his biggest issue has always been fighting to the level of his opposition.

Rodriguez may have a speed advantage and did appear to have big punching power when he was fighting up at WW but he wasn't fighting opponents anywhere near the level of Levy. Fighters at the UFC level tend to be a lot more durable.

Rodriguez did some grappling in one of his amateur fights but there isn't much out there from what I remember.
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Levy a good striker? Lol
 
carolinagrapple said:
Out of curiosity, has anyone ever asked ChatGPT to do a fight prediction? It might be hilariously bad or surprisingly good haha
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I have. i tried to feed it my spread sheet, but it always says the same thing about how fights can be largely determined by the performance of the fighter that night, and how much they trained . You can never really get a direct answer. One thing it's good for is asking what kind of spreadsheet would you fill out for capping games. I did it with baseball and it created a spreadsheet for measuring stats.
 
Thesnake101 said:
I think it'll boil down to which guy gasses first. For someone that's gone the distance in most of his fights, Natan is pretty gassy and has horrible body language. The way he looked against Breeden was in some spots late was appalling, like almost Dada 5000 type body language.

It's weird because Natan doesn't seem like someone who wilts mentally, but his body seems like it looks to betray that at times. Pete shouldn't be the guy to take advantage of that though, he's just too unproven to be dragging someone into deep waters. Not impossible he catches Levy early however.
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I haven't taped recently but levy seems to be open to body shots. I could swear he ate a few and his body language was not good. Still trying to figure out when to fade him
 
Levy sucks ass. Rodriguez might suck even more ass but I don’t know why anyone would trust Levy with their money, especially at favourite odds.
 
Journey now at 115+ guess im not the only one who saw value there. I hope the experience and grappling doesn't overcome Journey.

Buday and Jake now both -110 and -115
 
Stat_Collector said:
Journey now at 115+ guess im not the only one who saw value there. I hope the experience and grappling doesn't overcome Journey.

Buday and Jake now both -110 and -115
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massive line movement on horth too from +175 to -110 to now -145 and rising
 
Kamais_Ookin said:
massive line movement on horth too from +175 to -110 to now -145 and rising
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the two wins on Lopita likely the reason , im not on that for wmma. I actually think the value is now on Hailey.

Look up the fight against Laframboise. She got dropped and cage stalled a long time. She seems like one of those girls who just has decent size and strength and gets by on her gifts, but she is not very good technique wise. if the line keeps moving, im going to put Hailey in a parlay with my other picks.
 
Stat_Collector said:
Journey now at 115+ guess im not the only one who saw value there. I hope the experience and grappling doesn't overcome Journey.

Buday and Jake now both -110 and -115
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I'm one of those that don't understand that line movement.

Okay Kelleher is getting old but...

Newson has weak TDD and Kelleher is quite okay wrestler and can take him down. Newson tends to expose his back to get back up so expect Kelleher back takes.

If that fight stays on the feet for 15 minutes then Journey might win but otherwise I don't see it happening.

What is Journey(mans) path to victory?
 
Danis_champ said:
I'm one of those that don't understand that line movement.

Okay Kelleher is getting old but...

Newson has weak TDD and Kelleher is quite okay wrestler and can take him down. Newson tends to expose his back so expect Kelleher back take.

If that fight stays on the feet for 15 minutes then Journey might win but otherwise I don't see it happening.

What is Journey(mans) path to victory?
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His tdd defense is average, but you don't need good Tdd to beat Kellerher, he just needs solid getups. In his fight with Sergey he was able to eventually rise to his feet and end the round on the feet and not the floor. Those are good signs. I don't rate Kellerher in the same grappling league as Sergey who comes from that strong eastern european wrestling circuit. I've always seen Kellerher as a bjj guy not a wrestler. Will Kellerher score takedowns ? sure. Will he hold him down long? unlikely. Journey will eventually getup and begin to hammer Kellerher's lead calf leg, he has much better kicks, he thorws lots of straight karate kicks. And boxing wise Journey has better defense, he moves his head out of the centerline and knows how to slip punches. The one-two he hit Pilarte with was money. I can see him dropping Kellerher or doing enough to win a decision with more significant strikes.
 
Anybody think Durden beats Johnson? Can't see a reason for Charles to be such a favorite over anyone after his last two performances, and Cody's looked great since his loss to Mokaev so I'm tempted by his dog line.

Edit: Forgot Charles has that win over Flick sandwiched between his loss to Ode and the robbery against Zhalgas, think you guys get what I meant tho - Johnson hasn't put a stamp on any of his fights besides Flick rolling over.
 
Thesnake101 said:
Anybody think Durden beats Johnson? Can't see a reason for Charles to be such a favorite over anyone after his last two performances, and Cody's looked great since his loss to Mokaev so I'm tempted by his dog line.

Edit: Forgot Charles has that win over Flick sandwiched between his loss to Ode and the robbery against Zhalgas, think you guys get what I meant tho - Johnson hasn't put a stamp on any of his fights besides Flick rolling over.
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I'm with you. I put half a unit on Durden @+167 a while back. I think he can wrestle for 2 rounds and survive the third. It's no lock or anything, but i feel pretty good with the bet.
 
Betway just released Quinlan vs Waters U1.5 @-110. I took a shot at that. Feels like Waters can crack and we know that Quinlan for sure can crack. I also think that Waters is cutting a lot of weight and in a short notice fight that might spell trouble for him.
 
I'm leaning Song in the main event. He can crack, and his cardio + grappling held up nicely before. Simon's pace + control might be enough to win though. Maybe a small on Song(or over 2.5 rds) and then a livebet after Rd3 if it goes that long.
 
Fuck

Levy vs Rod off. I think rod was good potential dog money.
 
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