UFC Paris: Ciryl Gane vs Serghei Spivac, September 2, France

[Macaque]

Betting Farid ko/Dec at 2.0 which I believe is even money why not just bet Farid dec-110 and then bet Farid TKO+900 according to best fight odds. Yes you might lose .10 points on the Dec line but if he wins by TKO you gain a lot

I think Farid DEC/KO/TKO/DQ is @2,00, while DEC straight is @1,95 for some reason. I could do that and keep action on KO/TKO/DQ as well.
Regardless, ended up sticking with Farid O1.5 @1,57.
The two Basharats are very disciplined, which makes it hard to not bet on them. I genuinely think Farid’s odds are accurate, but that the fight will, more often than not, look closer than those odds suggest. That is, he won’t run over people, but if they fought 100 times he’d rarely lose. Hard to explain I guess.

 

[guesswhoseback]

I think Farid DEC/KO/TKO/DQ is @2,00, while DEC straight is @1,95 for some reason. I could do that and keep action on KO/TKO/DQ as well.
Regardless, ended up sticking with Farid O1.5 @1,57.
The two Basharats are very disciplined, which makes it hard to not bet on them. I genuinely think Farid’s odds are accurate, but that the fight will, more often than not, look closer than those odds suggest. That is, he won’t run over people, but if they fought 100 times he’d rarely lose. Hard to explain I guess.

I feel u

 

['Suga Daddy']

I think Farid DEC/KO/TKO/DQ is @2,00, while DEC straight is @1,95 for some reason. I could do that and keep action on KO/TKO/DQ as well.
Regardless, ended up sticking with Farid O1.5 @1,57.
The two Basharats are very disciplined, which makes it hard to not bet on them. I genuinely think Farid’s odds are accurate, but that the fight will, more often than not, look closer than those odds suggest. That is, he won’t run over people, but if they fought 100 times he’d rarely lose. Hard to explain I guess.

Great analysis, I know exactly what you mean. He might not blow Kleydson out of the water but for Kleydson to win too much has to come together

 

[sonhow]

I think Farid DEC/KO/TKO/DQ is @2,00, while DEC straight is @1,95 for some reason. I could do that and keep action on KO/TKO/DQ as well.
Regardless, ended up sticking with Farid O1.5 @1,57.
The two Basharats are very disciplined, which makes it hard to not bet on them. I genuinely think Farid’s odds are accurate, but that the fight will, more often than not, look closer than those odds suggest. That is, he won’t run over people, but if they fought 100 times he’d rarely lose. Hard to explain I guess.

Basharat bros are just that good everywhere. Maybe not the most powerful or biggest killer instinct but the defensive skills complete the offense. I would never bet a leech (Anthony Smith, Darren Elkins, Brian Kelleher etc) type of fighter against them but Rod is dangerous and might just win based on sheer impact of his strikes. I kinda expect close fight that comes down to what judges are looking for.

 

[mkess101]

Moises is the best grappler St.Denis has faced, right? Could definitely see a sub coming from him. I agree though, if Benoit wins it's either going to be a decision or he'll catch him cold not unlike Alvarez did.

Yes, in MMA for sure. Probably even if we count his grappling career. But BDS had plenty of success as a grappler, iirc he was one of those guys who just took to it and was handling way more experienced black belts when he was a purple.

I don't want to say a Moises sub is totally out of play, dude is a legit grappler. But he's a bit smaller, the eye test says maybe not quite as good a wrestler (though I could be wrong, it's closer than some people think), and seems to wilt under duress more. He'll need to be super slick to sub BDS.

 

[Stat_Collector]

Yes, in MMA for sure. Probably even if we count his grappling career. But BDS had plenty of success as a grappler, iirc he was one of those guys who just took to it and was handling way more experienced black belts when he was a purple.

I don't want to say a Moises sub is totally out of play, dude is a legit grappler. But he's a bit smaller, the eye test says maybe not quite as good a wrestler (though I could be wrong, it's closer than some people think), and seems to wilt under duress more. He'll need to be super slick to sub BDS.

it could just be simply he cancels the grappling and wins on the feet with superior kick boxing. he has seen better competition and will be the more combat tested fighter.

(Moises I'm referring to)

 

[mkess101]

it could just be simply he cancels the grappling and wins on the feet with superior kick boxing. he has seen better competition and will be the more combat tested fighter.

(Moises I'm referring to)

Could be. I think BDS will have more volume, be the aggressor, etc. But Moises may be more poised, efficient, etc standing. So one of those fights where people see it differently. Judges do get influenced by crowds though imo, and every little thing BDS does well is gonna have them going nuts.

And I know grit/heart/guts are hard to gauge a lot of the time but from what I've seen BDS will keep fighting whether tired, hurt, whatever. Moises...not as sure.

 

[Stat_Collector]

Could be. I think BDS will have more volume, be the aggressor, etc. But Moises may be more poised, efficient, etc standing. So one of those fights where people see it differently. Judges do get influenced by crowds though imo, and every little thing BDS does well is gonna have them going nuts.

And I know grit/heart/guts are hard to gauge a lot of the time but from what I've seen BDS will keep fighting whether tired, hurt, whatever. Moises...not as sure.

I think it's just a passable fight. Id only play BSD as an underdog, not at these minus odds. Betting against ufc vets with more experience never pays off . long term

 

[mkess101]

I think it's just a passable fight. Id only play BSD as an underdog, not at these minus odds. Betting against ufc vets with more experience never pays off . long term

I didn't play it either. I did play some props, BDS over 44.5 sig strikes and (smaller) BDS over 1.5 takedowns. I'm more confident in the sig strikes but I think he'll be the aggressor either way so these could cash even if he were to lose.

Edit: I lied. I forgot I did parlay BDS very small (and I got him as a slight dog early at -105) with Spivak. Just a tiny fun parlay, I can't even watch this card so not betting much at all.

 

[Stat_Collector]

I didn't play it either. I did play some props, BDS over 44.5 sig strikes and (smaller) BDS over 1.5 takedowns. I'm more confident in the sig strikes but I think he'll be the aggressor either way so these could cash even if he were to lose.

Edit: I lied. I forgot I did parlay BDS very small (and I got him as a slight dog early at -105) with Spivak. Just a tiny fun parlay, I can't even watch this card so not betting much at all.

well since i have no conflict of interest. goodluck.

 

[sonhow]

As someone who is quite heavy on BSD side here I wouldnt be that shocked if Moises stopped him with strikes. As said he is gonna be super aggressive and it's not like Zaleski didn't tko him about 5-6 times in their fight. He took so much punishment int that one fight I'm always kinda worried whether his durability holds up or not.
Not worried about sub in the least. You gotta kill this man to put him away.

 

[mkess101]

As someone who is quite heavy on BSD side here I wouldnt be that shocked if Moises stopped him with strikes. As said he is gonna be super aggressive and it's not like Zaleski didn't tko him about 5-6 times in their fight. He took so much punishment int that one fight I'm always kinda worried whether his durability holds up or not.
Not worried about sub in the least. You gotta kill this man to put him away.

I don't think Moises has that kind of power though. At least not that I've seen. Zeleski can crack. Moises? Don't remember him really ever hurting anyone standing in the UFC. Maybe he has and I just don't remember though.

 

[TeamVamos]

Nora is tenacious and plows forward with solid clinch + knees but has slow hands. She has to get Edwards against the cage and hope for takedowns. Slim chances Edwards loses at range. Caolan can likely spam takedowns to a decision.

 

[sonhow]

I don't think Moises has that kind of power though. At least not that I've seen. Zeleski can crack. Moises? Don't remember him really ever hurting anyone standing in the UFC. Maybe he has and I just don't remember though.

He hasnt shown it but sometimes these things happen out of nowhere. Oldie but goldie: Mac Danzic knocking out Joe Daddy long time ago comes to mind for some reason lol. Joe had one ko loss before and Mac wasnt a ko guy. But somehow the dynamic was there.

 

[Danis_champ]

UFC Paris Main Event Prediction

Cyril Gane (11-2) VS Sergei Spivak (16-3)

The UFC is set to return to Paris, one year after its debut in the capital of France.

Cyril Gane reclaims the main event spotlight following his unforgettable clash with Tai Tuvaisa.

Interestingly, these two fighters have shared a pair of opponents in the past: Derrick Lewis and Tai Tuvaisa.

While both emerged victorious via finishes, it's worth noting that Spivak exhibited more impressive performances and secured the faster finishes.

Gane boasts elite kickboxing skills, but his prowess against grapplers remains relatively untested.

I don't believe Gane will have the power to finish Spivak which makes me believe Spivak will find a way to eventually close distance to take this to the mat and find a finish.

Pick: Sergei Spivak ML (+145)

Am I the only one who thinks Gane is too strong, athletic and fast for Spivak? Spivak is decent but he has no Jones fight IQ. Thinking Gane makes this look easy.

Yep yep

Where are all the Spivak bettors?

Oh he lost to Jon HE'S DONE!