UFC Fox 27 - Jacare vs Brunson II - Charlotte

[pytycrys]

Gillespie sub +704 with the daily boost on williamhill. He won me a shitload of money last time when I got him by sub +1400 at Ladbrokes. Hope they open that line off, again!
Also, Bektic sub +850, 0.4u on that and 0.2u Borella sub +700.

 

[EzFlyer]

Gillespie sub +704 with the daily boost on williamhill. He won me a shitload of money last time when I got him by sub +1400 at Ladbrokes. Hope they open that line off, again!
Also, Bektic sub +850, 0.4u on that and 0.2u Borella sub +700.

Taking those, too

 

[ill800]

I'm a unit on ml so far. Prob double it. Taking a small stab on the ko. She's tough but that style means it's live

I’m early into tape on kish and I just keep adding more to the ml of Kim. Kish striking is not very good. She’s slow, she telegraphs and she looks like she has the fight iq of a brick

I’m almost 3 units in at this point

Hit her dec line as well. Kish is tough to finish

 

[PuertoRican]

I’m early into tape on kish and I just keep adding more to the ml of Kim. Kish striking is not very good. She’s slow, she telegraphs and she looks like she has the fight iq of a brick

I’m almost 3 units in at this point

Hit her dec line as well. Kish is tough to finish

Capping this fight as a striker vs. striker battle is wrong.

Kish has a striking background, but she'll be clinching and trying to take Kim down in this fight.

Kim won't have the distance she needs to strike if Kish is constantly trying to grapple. Kish hasn't looked amazing in the UFC like some people expected her to, but she has good cardio and can be relentless with grappling if she has the upper hand in that area, which she has here.

If I was gonna bet Kim, I'd only bet her decision line at +489 or better. (I don't think Kim will win a decision, though)

 

[ill800]

Capping this fight as a striker vs. striker battle is wrong.

Kish has a striking background, but she'll be clinching and trying to take Kim down in this fight.

Kim won't have the distance she needs to strike if Kish is constantly trying to grapple. Kish hasn't looked amazing in the UFC like some people expected her to, but she has good cardio and can be relentless with grappling if she has the upper hand in that area, which she has here.

If I was gonna bet Kim, I'd only bet her decision line at +489 or better. (I don't think Kim will win a decision, though)

You’re capping kish at -340?

Kish has terrible fight iq

She almost gave the fight away to yoder with the head and arm takedown. She is better than yoder on the feet but kept going to the ground with yoder who had the advantage on the ground

I thought she arguably lost to ansarof. Nina couldve easily taken her back several times in that fight but her jiu jitsu isn’t there

Also, kish doesn’t shoot for takedowns much. It’s usually an oppurtunistic head arm throw out of the clinch. She likes to strike

At +280 ml and almost +500 for the decision prop, I see it as massive value

 

[turbozed]

kim weighed in at 130 for a fight in 2016 so was small for 135. dropping down to 125 for this one. kish moving up. another positive. dont want kish just outmuscling her to the ground. should be big for the weight class. looks like kish missed weight by a touch a couple of times at 115

That fight that she weighed in at 130 lbs was a catchweight bout scheduled for 131 lbs though. It was a Top FC (Korea) versus Kunlun (China) card, so some fights were set at weird weights.

Something tells me that Kish might still have a size and strength advantage since she cuts a ton of weight. However, she probably will have a harder time muscling around a girl ~10-12 lbs heavier than usual as that has been her crutch preventing her from improving her technique.

 

[bigbets36]

First run:

1.8u Brunson +145
0.2u Brunson DEC +1000ish

0.33u Gillespie sub +600ish

0.33u borella NSC +159
0.13u borella sub +800ish

0.13u bektic sub +650ish

0.6u Kish -180

Why are you so big on Kish -180?

Kim is just to technical for Kish. I'm on Kim dec +489

 

[ApplesVild]

Brunson gets the knock out and Jacare is done.

 

[Stunna77]

Capping this fight as a striker vs. striker battle is wrong.

Kish has a striking background, but she'll be clinching and trying to take Kim down in this fight.

Kim won't have the distance she needs to strike if Kish is constantly trying to grapple. Kish hasn't looked amazing in the UFC like some people expected her to, but she has good cardio and can be relentless with grappling if she has the upper hand in that area, which she has here.

If I was gonna bet Kim, I'd only bet her decision line at +489 or better. (I don't think Kim will win a decision, though)

Exact same thoughts, but given Kish's fight IQ in the past I had to play Kim's Dec +489 for .5u. Theres a chance Kish strikes for long periods or simply can't get her grappling going against an opponent who can better match her size/strength, in which case Kim will make it close.

 

[TheOneTrueKing]

Capping this fight as a striker vs. striker battle is wrong.

Kish has a striking background, but she'll be clinching and trying to take Kim down in this fight.

Kim won't have the distance she needs to strike if Kish is constantly trying to grapple. Kish hasn't looked amazing in the UFC like some people expected her to, but she has good cardio and can be relentless with grappling if she has the upper hand in that area, which she has here.

If I was gonna bet Kim, I'd only bet her decision line at +489 or better. (I don't think Kim will win a decision, though)

im not capping it as striker v striker. but there is gonna be a fair bit of striking more often than not imo. a lot of ways the fight can play out depending on how kish plays it. kims gonna want to throw down tho. theres enough question marks for how much of the fight takes place in the the clinch/ground and who wins there to not play a 1.3 fav. kim may even best her there. only got to win over 26% to be profitable. although those odds wont last.

 

[ill800]

Brunson gets the knock out and Jacare is done.

After watching tape I’m still not betting on Brunson

Robert Whitaker striking vs Derek Brunson striking are two completely different animals.

I’m still in question about this “elite” tdd Brunson has. The only wrestler he’s fought is Romero and Romero really didn’t even try to take him down.

And just because Romero is a wrestler doesn’t mean he has good mma wrestling. Guys seem to get him down much easier than you would think and he’s never been a guy that really looked to win fights with his wrestling

Brunson still has the same bad habit that got him knocked out the first time they fought.

If Brunson doesn’t get an early knockout he’s going to gas in the later rounds. Jacare is a monster. Don’t let that perfect performance by Whitaker fool you into thinking Brunson will do the same thing

 

[Stunna77]

After watching tape I’m still not betting on Brunson

Robert Whitaker striking vs Derek Brunson striking are two completely different animals.

I’m still in question about this “elite” tdd Brunson has. The only wrestler he’s fought is Romero and Romero really didn’t even try to take him down.

And just because Romero is a wrestler doesn’t mean he has good mma wrestling. Guys seem to get him down much easier than you would think and he’s never been a guy that really looked to win fights with his wrestling

Brunson still has the same bad habit that got him knocked out the first time they fought.

If Brunson doesn’t get an early knockout he’s going to gas in the later rounds. Jacare is a monster. Don’t let that perfect performance by Whitaker fool you into thinking Brunson will do the same thing

Jacare was a monster. Since USADA he has beaten the ghost of Vitor and Tim Boetsch, then was demolished by Whittaker. On top of USADA he has had a year off at 38 and a serious injury. No way to know if he is even remotely close to the same fighter who gave Yoel everything he could handle. His striking vs Whit consisting of spamming an overhand right. If he doesn't get Brunson to the mat he is taking a nap.

 

[iGnP]

After watching tape I’m still not betting on Brunson

Robert Whitaker striking vs Derek Brunson striking are two completely different animals.

I’m still in question about this “elite” tdd Brunson has. The only wrestler he’s fought is Romero and Romero really didn’t even try to take him down.

And just because Romero is a wrestler doesn’t mean he has good mma wrestling. Guys seem to get him down much easier than you would think and he’s never been a guy that really looked to win fights with his wrestling

Brunson still has the same bad habit that got him knocked out the first time they fought.

If Brunson doesn’t get an early knockout he’s going to gas in the later rounds. Jacare is a monster. Don’t let that perfect performance by Whitaker fool you into thinking Brunson will do the same thing

Jacare was a monster. Since USADA he has beaten the ghost of Vitor and Tim Boetsch, then was demolished by Whittaker. On top of USADA he has had a year off at 38 and a serious injury. No way to know if he is even remotely close to the same fighter who gave Yoel everything he could handle. His striking vs Whit consisting of spamming an overhand right. If he doesn't get Brunson to the mat he is taking a nap.

My thoughts echo Stunna's. I understand being hesitant betting on Brunson here but I don't understand why anyone would lay juice on Jacare. This is the epitome of dog or pass

 

[ill800]

Jacare was a monster. Since USADA he has beaten the ghost of Vitor and Tim Boetsch, then was demolished by Whittaker. On top of USADA he has had a year off at 38 and a serious injury. No way to know if he is even remotely close to the same fighter who gave Yoel everything he could handle. His striking vs Whit consisting of spamming an overhand right. If he doesn't get Brunson to the mat he is taking a nap.

And he beat vitor and boetsch easily.
You can only beat who they put in front of you.

I don’t think hes washed yet. I bet Whitaker to beat him. But imo he’s still a monster if he gets you to he ground.

He’s lost some mass and speed. The speed could be a big factor with someone like Brunson who’s straight left is sharp

Whitaker is a bad stylistic matchup for jacare. He’s also 26 and the uncrowned king of his division

Brunson is 34 and isnt on Whitaker’s level, as we found out.

Brunson isn’t gong to be able to use takedowns or kicks. He’s going to have to rely on his boxing and movement. He’s got the speed and the left hand to get it done, dont get me wrong, but he isn’t in the same class as Whitaker.

Brunson isn’t nearly as calculated and his technique isn’t nearly as sharp. He gets overly agressive and sloppy. He exposes his chin habitually. This sets him up for takedowns or being knocked out.

I think -150 is reasonable for jacare. Im stating the case for him. Im not discouraging plays on Brunson. I get it. +145 is decent value on him.

Small play on this fight in general. The layoff and declining skills are a concern for sure.

I just haven’t been able to talk myself out of the .7 unit bet on souza

 

[Naught2Sixty]

+585 Bermudez sub seems like it has value. Can't say much about fili's guard yet since I'm not that far into tape but bermudez is bigger and has better technical wrestling. Fili tends to use feints to setup his takedowns but not many people seem to bite on the feint. Sometimes he lunges his whole body into them and its obvious imo. He over extends on his jab a lot and drops his right hand which I think can be countered by a grab or power double. Filis hips are very stiff on the ground and I think bermudez can work better in transition to get his back for an rnc. Again not done with tape yet but most likely a pass for me.

 

[Oblivian]

I'm also one of the few not on Brunson here. Jacare is someone that you want to be patient and frustrate with good movement/angles. You want to have solid defense and look to avoid a bomb. I just don't see Brunson executing that well over 5 rounds. He gets reckless at times and doesn't always react well if forced in the pocket. I haven't played Jacare either though.

 

[ill800]

+585 Bermudez sub seems like it has value. Can't say much about fili's guard yet since I'm not that far into tape but bermudez is bigger and has better technical wrestling. Fili tends to use feints to setup his takedowns but not many people seem to bite on the feint. Sometimes he lunges his whole body into them and its obvious imo. He over extends on his jab a lot and drops his right hand which I think can be countered by a grab or power double. Filis hips are very stiff on the ground and I think bermudez can work better in transition to get his back for an rnc. Again not done with tape yet but most likely a pass for me.

I took Filis opener small at +150 but I can see Bermudez taking him down and controlling him.

Sometimes Fili looks great, other times very average. Inconsistent fighter

Bermudez is Chinny and I hate betting on chinny fighters

Haven’t watched tape on these two either

 

[LEMONZEST]

I'm also one of the few not on Brunson here. Jacare is someone that you want to be patient and frustrate with good movement/angles. You want to have solid defense and look to avoid a bomb. I just don't see Brunson executing that well over 5 rounds. He gets reckless at times and doesn't always react well if forced in the pocket. I haven't played Jacare either though.

I like Jacare too.

 

[Oblivian]

Man, I don't understand the Fili plays. I have a hard time seeing him win any way put catching Bermudez standing. I can see Bermudez wrestling to decision, beating the shit out of Fili for a (T)Ko mixing in striking + wrestling/GnP, or wearing Fili down before catching a sub.

 

[northsofia]

I just watched some tapes from Bermudez and Fili too and i think the odds are correct here. If this is going to be a striking battle, Fili can def outstrike Bermudez and makes him pay for his wild striking, but i dont think that Fili has the power to knock Denis out. No matter that, i think Bermudez is smart enough to not making this a stand up fight and will use his wrestling to win this. Fili taked Lobov down 4 or 5 times, but man his takedowns were crying for a guilotine.