UFC Fox 23 - Pena vs Shevchenko - Denver

[Ukram]

Masvidal has exactly 3 finishes in 16 UFC/Strikeforce fights, while Cerrone has 17 finishes in 33 WEC/UFC fights. Unreal actually how many fights Cerrone has against top level competition.

Point being I do not see Mas finishing Cowboy just because he looked semi-aggressive against a passive and shot Berger. He could definitely use his tighter boxing to outpoint cowboy and I think that is his best path to victory, but Cerrone has a much more varied attack and is the better grappler. Cerrone has been prone to off nights before and if headkick KOing Matt Brown is what he looks like on an off night, I'll take it. I do not see him just falling off a cliff at 33, plus Mas has MORE fights than Cerrone does and is roughly the same age. I'm guessing he looks on point in his home state as well. Just need that line to come down a bit..

There was something strange about that head kick ko on brown, I re-watched it earlier today and brown simply placed his head to the right bottom side for like 2-3 seconds with hands down and no defence.

Maybe brown gassed or tired but very poor defence from him its like he gave a perfect set up for cowboy to launch his favourite head kick.

Masvidal has much better with footwork, ducking and weaving must be his street fighter days but I am liking the overs or fight goes distance, maybe split d props also.

 

[MMA Gambling Expert]

Buddy Brown is a sharp, always appreciated his expert opinion. Can't he just have a second chance?

#FreeBuddyTop

 

[Cptn1NSAN0]

Nicholson for all his faults hits EXTREMELY hard. He knocked out the guy he fought in his UFC debut with one of the shortest punches i've ever seen and outside the UFC he knocked out UFC HW Sherman. Barncat is not a puncher so Nate will have been more willing to engage as opposed to when he fought Santos. I expect him to be very hesitant against Alvey due to Alvey's power. Nate knows his chin has gone and i didn't say much more output from him against Barncat anyway. You can't compare fighting Nicholson and Barncat as Alvey would happily walk through Barncat's shots. I'd be very surprised if Nate stops Alvey too. I'm expecting a boring staring contest. Hopefully Alvey catches him tho to save us all that pain.

I'm not denying that Nicholson packs more power than Barncat but you have to think about the strategies applied in both those fights. Nicholson didn't want to get into a pocket brawl with Alvey as he respected the power. He played a much more technical game, using lots of low kicks, teeps and jabs to keep alvey out of his comfort zone. You said that Marquardt was more willing to trade with McCrory but I don't agree, Nate fought with a similar strategy. Low kicks, teeps, jabs, feints, and setting traps to land his overhand on the backfoot. Marquardt knows that he cant take much abuse anymore and relies on his technical advantages these days because of that. I think he can avoid a brawl with Alvey and bait him into eating his overhand right that he stung both CB and Barncat with. Alvey really does have a tendency to enter the pocket with his chin up...

As far as Santos, he has such a classic muay thai style of walking his opponent down with a high gaurd and chopping kicks. Hes also super quick, covers distance in an instant, favors long range strikes and has great combinations. Alvey possesses none of these qualities, just L and R counter hooks with very little output. I think we'll see Nate look much less vulnerable against a guy like Alvey compared to Santos.

 

[iGnP]

poor EZ

Absolutely perfect gif.

 

[iGnP]

Buddy Brown is a sharp, always appreciated his expert opinion. Can't he just have a second chance?

#FreeBuddyTop

Err, you mean 5th chance?

 

[EzFlyer]

Buddy Brown is a sharp, always appreciated his expert opinion. Can't he just have a second chance?

#FreeBuddyTop

I think you mean a 10th chance, and no

Let's just move on, please

 

[NinjaCat456]

I don't understand what he did to get banned? Funny guy with good insight IMO

You always risk getting on the wrong side of the mods if you overdo the aggression/abuse/spam to the extent he did, and he did it on like 5 different accounts. Thought he'd learnt his lesson with his buddy brown account but then out it all comes again.

 

[Sham5916910]

I'm not denying that Nicholson packs more power than Barncat but you have to think about the strategies applied in both those fights. Nicholson didn't want to get into a pocket brawl with Alvey as he respected the power. He played a much more technical game, using lots of low kicks, teeps and jabs to keep alvey out of his comfort zone. You said that Marquardt was more willing to trade with McCrory but I don't agree, Nate fought with a similar strategy. Low kicks, teeps, jabs, feints, and setting traps to land his overhand on the backfoot. Marquardt knows that he cant take much abuse anymore and relies on his technical advantages these days because of that. I think he can avoid a brawl with Alvey and bait him into eating his overhand right that he stung both CB and Barncat with. Alvey really does have a tendency to enter the pocket with his chin up...

As far as Santos, he has such a classic muay thai style of walking his opponent down with a high gaurd and chopping kicks. Hes also super quick, covers distance in an instant, favors long range strikes and has great combinations. Alvey possesses none of these qualities, just L and R counter hooks with very little output. I think we'll see Nate look much less vulnerable against a guy like Alvey compared to Santos.

Good post but i just cant trust that chin. I posted a stats post related to nate and alvey earlier in the thread and nate is averaging 12 sig strikes per round over his last four fights. Alvey has upped his sig strikes significantly since the elias debacle. I dont trust him enough to bet him but its a sign to me that he knows volume is an issue and hes working on it. I expect alvey to land a ko blow or this turns into a staring contest and the winner is the one with more volume. Nate did not look good standing for me against barncat he was forced to ground him at one point in r2 i think it was cos he got stung standing.

 

[Joseph Budden]

Good post but i just cant trust that chin. I posted a stats post related to nate and alvey earlier in the thread and nate is averaging 12 sig strikes per round over his last four fights. Alvey has upped his sig strikes significantly since the elias debacle. I dont trust him enough to bet him but its a sign to me that he knows volume is an issue and hes working on it. I expect alvey to land a ko blow or this turns into a staring contest and the winner is the one with more volume. Nate did not look good standing for me against barncat he was forced to ground him at one point in r2 i think it was cos he got stung standing.

Stats are the worst. Look at who Alvey has fought. Kevin Casey, who can't move his feet or fight effectively for more than one round and can't fight effectively without aggression. And Nicholson, who also relies on aggression. Marquardt can sit back and be more technical than those guys by a mile, even as shot as he is.

Also, McCrory not pack as much power in his punches as Nicholson, but its honestly damn close. Just go look at that fast Bellator KO he scored awhile ago. That punch looked deadly

 

[Sham5916910]

Stats are the worst. Look at who Alvey has fought. Kevin Casey, who can't move his feet or fight effectively for more than one round and can't fight effectively without aggression. And Nicholson, who also relies on aggression. Marquardt can sit back and be more technical than those guys by a mile, even as shot as he is.

Also, McCrory not pack as much power in his punches as Nicholson, but its honestly damn close. Just go look at that fast Bellator KO he scored awhile ago. That punch looked deadly

I dont agree on power nicholson ko'd sherman whos a hw he has frightening power. Thats why im not touching this fight i expect nate to throw nothing alvey wont chase so we prob end up with a terrible staring contest unless alvey catches him early.

Im sticking to an murican wrestler on this card that should keep you happy!

 

[Joseph Budden]

I dont agree on power nicholson ko'd sherman whos a hw he has frightening power. Thats why im not touching this fight i expect nate to throw nothing alvey wont chase so we prob end up with a terrible staring contest unless alvey catches him early.

Im sticking to an murican wrestler on this card that should keep you happy!

With the most batshit wild spinning back fist though. As far as more conventional punches, I don't think the difference is very significant.

Agreed on staring contest potential. I'm actually hoping the more aggressive Alvey from recent fights is what we'll get, cause if Alvey just stands there like hes prone to do I can't see Nate scoring the tds.

Would have been a bannable offense imo if you bet a Brazilian with shit cardio at altitude over the powerful, thick Murican wrassler

 

[AffectEffect]

http://www.bloodyelbow.com/2017/1/2...g-criteria-explained-hinds-bell-mma-interview

Interesting read especially this section in regard to the Lauzon fight:

"BE: Effectiveness and Dominance through grappling still seem to be widely misunderstood concepts. What are judges looking for when assigning credit to grappling?

Hinds: Agreed. The main reason for the misunderstanding is that people continue to evaluate actions instead of results. In a grappling scenario, positioning means the least when making an evaluation. This is a very hard concept for most to understand; especially when it comes to grappling artists that are used to “gaining points” for positional advantages.

All must keep in mind: It’s what is being accomplished to progress/finish the fight in that position as opposed to the position itself.

Example: A fighter with their opponent’s back (dominant position) that is doing nothing but holding a seat belt grip is going to weigh less than a fighter that is on bottom in full closed guard (neutral position) hurting his/her opponent with elbows and solid, (near) fight ending threatening submission attempts.

Judges should be always looking at the result of an action, not the action itself.

Judges should be looking for the same things in grappling that they look for in striking. Damage. The opportunity to finish the fight.

They should be evaluating (near) fight ending sequences such as: tight effective submissions, positions and transitions that have clearly diminished their opponent’s ability to compete, slams that have affected their opponents output and positional dominance that has rendered their opponent solely defensive with little to no offensive output.

Just hold a position has some weight, but not as much as people think when assessing an effective grappling round."

I think chaps we need to be going with the guy who has threatened from the bottom moving forward if the other person has just laid on them. Examples are Magny and Lauzon fights. I scored the fight for Magny but the other fight for Held. Let's hope it takes the books a few months to cotton on and let's get rich on live bet. I'm gonna imprint damage, dominance and duration into my mind.

In the same article the guy says r2 of tate holm should be 10-8 tate. can anyone remember that round?

"In a grappling scenario, positioning means the least when making an evaluation."

The ignorance in this statement is jaw dropping. The rules are being made by people who have never grappled a day in their life. Jesus Christ.

 

[EzFlyer]

just make it the ultimate kickboxing championships

 

[AffectEffect]

those fights I have heard all of the same things as to why he would lose (weak to the body, forward pressure, southpaw, etc) All he did was finish all these guys in impressive fashion and yet people are still underestimating him.

I noticed that too. But that's the Ironic nature of fight capping: they could be wrong 4 times in a row, but then they might be right here because Mas is the type of fighter that the others aren't. I'm still undecided after an early cerrone lean.

 

[SBJJ]

I noticed that too. But that's the Ironic nature of fight capping: they could be wrong 4 times in a row, but then they might be right here because Mas is the type of fighter that the others aren't. I'm still undecided after an early cerrone lean.

I'm not even gonna try to decide how the judges judge until we have a larger sample size. Pretty sure retarded judges are still gonna retard.

Man. I was torn on Cerrone Mas but now I'm really leaning Mas

 

[Cptn1NSAN0]

Good post but i just cant trust that chin. I posted a stats post related to nate and alvey earlier in the thread and nate is averaging 12 sig strikes per round over his last four fights. Alvey has upped his sig strikes significantly since the elias debacle. I dont trust him enough to bet him but its a sign to me that he knows volume is an issue and hes working on it. I expect alvey to land a ko blow or this turns into a staring contest and the winner is the one with more volume. Nate did not look good standing for me against barncat he was forced to ground him at one point in r2 i think it was cos he got stung standing.

That stat has to be skewed by the fact that Nate didnt land a single thing on Santos or Kelvin... and the fact that Nicholson abandoned his plan and went full brawl mode in rd 3.

And I wouldnt say that I have any "trust" in Nates chin, but his actions after getting rocked show me that he knows his durability isnt what it once was and can make the adjustments needed to get himself out of danger. He still backpedals with no gaurd sometimes but otherwise hes been looking a little more controlled under fire imo.

 

[MidgardSerpent]

Okay, most certainly some weird glitch, but I noticed if you go to BFO and check out the timeline of Shevchenko'd odds she spiked to +1000 on January the 17th.

 

[EzFlyer]

Okay, most certainly some weird glitch, but I noticed if you go to BFO and check out the timeline of Shevchenko'd odds she spiked to +1000 on January the 17th.

yea they added a zero, i believe.

 

[AffectEffect]

I'm not even gonna try to decide how the judges judge until we have a larger sample size. Pretty sure retarded judges are still gonna retard.

Man. I was torn on Cerrone Mas but now I'm really leaning Mas

It's hard to find the right path... I guess we look for underdogs that we expect to do more damage for the time being? (This is a good argument for ferg vs khabib, puke... Hehe)

Yeah at the moment I'll just wait to live bet cerrone mas, I have a feeling it will be clear if Cerrone is on or not live.

 

[The MM Analyst]

I knew I was gonna be on Shevchenko, but after watching tape I'm favoring her a lot more than I thought I would. I have Shev's line set around -230.

Pena is one of the worst strikers I've ever seen. Her striking legitimately looks untrained. She can't cut off the cage or pressure effectively, she just runs in straight lines and follows her opponent. I don't think she does anything that will force Shevchenko into the clinch. In the Nunes fight, even when Nunes was fresh she couldn't get near Shev often or land clean with anything, I don't see Pena getting close enough to her to clinch often.

I watched the Zingano and Eye fights, and there were 0 times in both those fights where Pena forced an opponent who didn't want to clinch into the clinch. Every clinch was either mutual or initiated by her opponent. If Shevchenko doesn't want to clinch, I don't think she'll have to. I think the most likely outcome for this fight is that she sticks on the outside, lights Pena up with counters when she charges in, and pivots away for 25 minutes.

Even if Shevchenko does want to clinch (and I don't think she will if she feels like Pena is strong in the clinch, she seems well-coached and fights to intelligent gameplans), I think she'll be fine. I honestly don't think Pena is even good in the clinch. She has a solid inside/outside trip, but her positional control is bad. She doesn't really attempt to pummel and will just take whatever position you give her and try to take you down from there. Sometimes that results in weird sacrifice throw attempts that look like she was never taught to do them properly. She'll give up underhooks/whizzers to just throw pitter patter punches at your head. Also her clinch game falls apart when her opponent gets head position. Pena doesn't look to get her head under her opponent's and doesn't seem to know how to react when her opponent does. Eye kept her on the fence for a while with this while Pena looked confused and threw pitter patter punches at her head.

Every time Pena got on top of Zingano (outside of an inside trip in round 3) it was because Zingano did something really stupid. After watching tape, I think Pena isn`t a very good fighter and kinda lucked her way into the top of the division by getting good matchups against opponents with 0 fight IQ.

I think the most likely scenario is Shevchenko dominates her. I don't see this as a close fight and am going huge on Shev.