UFC Fox 23 - Pena vs Shevchenko - Denver

[rille31]

I'm mulling over unit size and obviously line dependent but im on Jordan Johnson. Frankenstein's tdd is non existent and he invites the takedown with the way he plods forward, and his high guard when someone feints or actually throws punches. Jordan is an All American div 1 wrestler and im pretty confident Frankenstein is getting wrestlefucked here. First person that didn't want to engage Frank on the feet (Craig) absolutely bossed him, and that's a Scottish guy who probably learnt how to double leg three years ago. If you go back a year and watch Frank's last fight before his UFC debut against Alcantara (a WW i might add) he got taken down with ease. He only won as Alcantara was totally exhausted (they both were - some things never change for Frank eh?) and seemed to collapse from exhaustion. This is in Denver too and Jordan has been there since 10th Jan - I assume Frank will fly in early next week. Jordan has trained at MMA Lab, Power MMA and Alliance. Vitor has also used him for a number of training camps too.

I also feel like Frank is being poorly managed. This is his 5th fight in a year and every fight in that spell has been a tough fight. Before the Craig fight he had been dropped in three consecutive fights and even Craig busted his face up. The Craig fight was two months ago so he's had no chance to work on cardio, tdd, movement or this high guard when on the defensive that leaves him wide open for takedowns. He has also shown no ability to cage walk to get back to his feet. I don't think the kind of reversal he hit on Wilson is going to work against a real heavy wrestler when he's on top of you. When he gets taken down he flops straight to his back.

Jordan is lacking in the stand up department but Frank is not a one punch type guy. I really see Jordan taking him down at will and Frank drowning in the thin air of Denver. Frank gassed worse than normal against Craig and i think that was because of the grappling approach. Having a big lump who's a div 1 wrestler is certainly going to make you exhausted if you can't cope with a Scottish grappler on top of you. Jordan seemed to slow in his penultimate fight but he looked much better in his last fight which was a five rounder.

dont forget frankie is taking this on short notice aswell, that wont help his poor cardio

 

[AffectEffect]

I knew I was gonna be on Shevchenko, but after watching tape I'm favoring her a lot more than I thought I would. I have Shev's line set around -230.

Pena is one of the worst strikers I've ever seen. Her striking legitimately looks untrained. She can't cut off the cage or pressure effectively, she just runs in straight lines and follows her opponent. I don't think she does anything that will force Shevchenko into the clinch. In the Nunes fight, even when Nunes was fresh she couldn't get near Shev often or land clean with anything, I don't see Pena getting close enough to her to clinch often.

I watched the Zingano and Eye fights, and there were 0 times in both those fights where Pena forced an opponent who didn't want to clinch into the clinch. Every clinch was either mutual or initiated by her opponent. If Shevchenko doesn't want to clinch, I don't think she'll have to. I think the most likely outcome for this fight is that she sticks on the outside, lights Pena up with counters when she charges in, and pivots away for 25 minutes.

Even if Shevchenko does want to clinch (and I don't think she will if she feels like Pena is strong in the clinch, she seems well-coached and fights to intelligent gameplans), I think she'll be fine. I honestly don't think Pena is even good in the clinch. She has a solid inside/outside trip, but her positional control is bad. She doesn't really attempt to pummel and will just take whatever position you give her and try to take you down from there. Sometimes that results in weird sacrifice throw attempts that look like she was never taught to do them properly. She'll give up underhooks/whizzers to just throw pitter patter punches at your head. Also her clinch game falls apart when her opponent gets head position. Pena doesn't look to get her head under her opponent's and doesn't seem to know how to react when her opponent does. Eye kept her on the fence for a while with this while Pena looked confused and threw pitter patter punches at her head.

Every time Pena got on top of Zingano (outside of an inside trip in round 3) it was because Zingano did something really stupid. After watching tape, I think Pena isn`t a very good fighter and kinda lucked her way into the top of the division by getting good matchups against opponents with 0 fight IQ.

I think the most likely scenario is Shevchenko dominates her. I don't see this as a close fight and am going huge on Shev.

Great technical explanation of a lean, I've also been enjoying your articles and the tonnon video you posted in the grappling forum. Well done.

Cat gassed, indeed I think cat was and is the more technical grappler. I had money on her sadly. But imo cat gassing had something to do with the pace that Pena uses. Her ability to push the pace, even if untechnical, tends to cause girls to fold to the pressure.

You don't think the size advantage will have any impact?

 

[Rebel_LioN]

I knew I was gonna be on Shevchenko, but after watching tape I'm favoring her a lot more than I thought I would. I have Shev's line set around -230.

Pena is one of the worst strikers I've ever seen. Her striking legitimately looks untrained. She can't cut off the cage or pressure effectively, she just runs in straight lines and follows her opponent. I don't think she does anything that will force Shevchenko into the clinch. In the Nunes fight, even when Nunes was fresh she couldn't get near Shev often or land clean with anything, I don't see Pena getting close enough to her to clinch often.

I watched the Zingano and Eye fights, and there were 0 times in both those fights where Pena forced an opponent who didn't want to clinch into the clinch. Every clinch was either mutual or initiated by her opponent. If Shevchenko doesn't want to clinch, I don't think she'll have to. I think the most likely outcome for this fight is that she sticks on the outside, lights Pena up with counters when she charges in, and pivots away for 25 minutes.

Even if Shevchenko does want to clinch (and I don't think she will if she feels like Pena is strong in the clinch, she seems well-coached and fights to intelligent gameplans), I think she'll be fine. I honestly don't think Pena is even good in the clinch. She has a solid inside/outside trip, but her positional control is bad. She doesn't really attempt to pummel and will just take whatever position you give her and try to take you down from there. Sometimes that results in weird sacrifice throw attempts that look like she was never taught to do them properly. She'll give up underhooks/whizzers to just throw pitter patter punches at your head. Also her clinch game falls apart when her opponent gets head position. Pena doesn't look to get her head under her opponent's and doesn't seem to know how to react when her opponent does. Eye kept her on the fence for a while with this while Pena looked confused and threw pitter patter punches at her head.

Every time Pena got on top of Zingano (outside of an inside trip in round 3) it was because Zingano did something really stupid. After watching tape, I think Pena isn`t a very good fighter and kinda lucked her way into the top of the division by getting good matchups against opponents with 0 fight IQ.

I think the most likely scenario is Shevchenko dominates her. I don't see this as a close fight and am going huge on Shev.

I'd tread careful with that decision line tho. Currently +194 doesn't hold a lot of value in comparison to the ML and Pena is so damn tense the bitch might just blow her wad/juice and run into some spinning shit face first especially in a 5 rounder.

The only thing however is Shev looks like a slooow starter and gives away rounds while Pena comes out the gate guns blazing. I got Shev too but I bet on her against Nunes and she decided to show up and have a staring contest for the first two rounds. Of course it's WMMA you can't expect them to do everything right :\

All said, I agree that's the way I see it too in my head.

 

[The MM Analyst]

Great technical explanation of a lean, I've also been enjoying your articles and the tonnon video you posted in the grappling forum. Well done.

Cat gassed, indeed I think cat was and is the more technical grappler. I had money on her sadly. But imo cat gassing had something to do with the pace that Pena uses. Her ability to push the pace, even if untechnical, tends to cause girls to fold to the pressure.

You don't think the size advantage will have any impact?

I think Cat is definitely the better wrestler when they're fresh, but she's always made some really questionable decisions on the ground in her fights. It's like she just has mental lapses occasionally. I don't think the size will be a huge factor because I expect Shev to be able to keep her on the outside for most of the fight. I also think Pena's lack of headfighting ability mitigates her size advantage in the clinch. Shevchenko stopped letting Nunes take over/under in clinches after the first round and would dig her head in and angle off (she did that against Holm a bit too), and if she does that here I don't think Pena will be able to control her. Since it's a 5 round I think she can afford to lose a round in order to find out whether or not she's okay clinching with Pena, and if it turns out she's not I think she'll be able to adjust.

I'd tread careful with that decision line tho. Currently +194 doesn't hold a lot of value in comparison to the ML and Pena is so damn tense the bitch might just blow her wad/juice and run into some spinning shit face first especially in a 5 rounder.

The only thing however is Shev looks like a slooow starter and gives away rounds while Pena comes out the gate guns blazing. I got Shev too but I bet on her against Nunes and she decided to show up and have a staring contest for the first two rounds. Of course it's WMMA you can't expect them to do everything right :\

All said, I agree that's the way I see it too in my head.

I'm hitting her ML. I'm on Pinnacle so they don't have decisions lines anyway, but I could see Shev getting a finish here. She's usually not a finisher at all, but Pena will be coming at her hard and doing absolutely nothing to protect her face. I think the fact that it's a 5 round helps here a lot here. In a 3 round I'd be worried about her not showing up until round 3, but it's a lot safer for her to start slow here, especially because I don't see Pena finishing her early.

 

[Joseph Budden]

Think MM Analyst's breakdown and reasoning is spot on. Confidence increase his join date is my birthday

 

[vkram]

I think Pena/Shevchenko ends up looking like either Holm/Rousey with the striker picking apart the grappler that is rushing in or a repeat of the first 2 rounds of Nunes/Shevchenko with the grappler getting control and dominating. Pena's cardio seems pretty good and she hasn't really slowed down in any of her fights, how she handles the elevation is another question (as with Shevchenko).

 

[Rebel_LioN]

There might be some redemption for guard players like Jason Knight in 2017. It's not being counted as much when you're getting taken down and put on your back. He's a rubberguard player and he's recently been working on mixing in his offensive wrestling. Not having to be worried about getting taken down I believe that allows him to have a free flow with his striking. He will come in as aggressive as he wants to be against Caceres and I doubt Caceres wants to be trapped in his guard ala Ben Saunders.

Knight though is still a developing striker and on paper Caceres is better there but I think Knight brings enough grit to overcome the disparity. He's still only 24 and he's dedicated so I won't doubt a progression from fight to fight.

If you think Bruce Leeroy has that southpaw striking advantage then +140 might be of value to you but if that line reaches closer to evens I'd put more stock into Knight. I'm planning on playing him but I'm watching to see if the money comes in on the dog or not to get a cheaper line.

 

[Cptn1NSAN0]

There might be some redemption for guard players like Jason Knight in 2017. It's not being counted as much when you're getting taken down and put on your back. He's a rubberguard player and he's recently been working on mixing in his offensive wrestling. Not having to be worried about getting taken down I believe that allows him to have a free flow with his striking. He will come in as aggressive as he wants to be against Caceres and I doubt Caceres wants to be trapped in his guard ala Ben Saunders.

Knight though is still a developing striker and on paper Caceres is better there but I think Knight brings enough grit to overcome the disparity. He's still only 24 and he's dedicated so I won't doubt a progression from fight to fight.

If you think Bruce Leeroy has that southpaw striking advantage then +140 might be of value to you but if that line reaches closer to evens I'd put more stock into Knight. I'm planning on playing him but I'm watching to see if the money comes in on the dog or not to get a cheaper line.

You said it, at the current odds I feel a play on Caceres is the right move. Knight's been using more TD's lately but he's really only had success with them against Hooker who has average TDD at best. Caceres was getting Yair down and is really quick at springing back up himself so I don't see Knight having a great advantage on the ground. He is super active from the bottom though, that is a good point

 

[Ukram]

Great discussions about shev and pena, am still in 2 minds but I was going to discuss the same point MM Analyst mentioned earlier, shev is a 17 time muay thai world champion can she stop the clinch game even if she wanted to ?

Must be almost reactive for her at this point to throw some knees in the clinches or tie up.

Still holm and nunes showed us one important thing, shev does not like power and aggression.

Pena doing her ronda style charging in like a possessed bull looking for submissions may make short work of shev or shev takes her nick name of 'bullet' and circles away with footwork while countering with that jab are possibilities.

Pena sub/itd play or shev decision are my early leans, but after r2/r3 and when the lines right may hit some decision props especially shev decision.

 

[AffectEffect]

Great discussions about shev and pena, am still in 2 minds but I was going to discuss the same point MM Analyst mentioned earlier, shev is a 17 time muay thai world champion can she stop the clinch game even if she wanted to ?

Must be almost reactive for her at this point to throw some knees in the clinches or tie up.

Just wanted to note: she has training MMA from the beginning even during her kickboxing career. Her clinch grappling game is very strong for a kickboxer and when she beat Joanna J in kickboxing twice, mainly from tossing her ass in the clinch (irrc been a while since I watched those). So for a kickboxing girl she has a good grappling pedigree imo.

That said I don't think she is great off her back.

Agreed on the Pena itd and shev Dec being the 2 most likely outcomes.

 

[raketmannen]

I think Mas has turned a new leaf and is going to be really agressive now. I can understand why others my disagree basede on past decisions. I am also considering the ITD play as I think Cerrone can aslo stop Mas if he gets reckless.

I agree with you, took the u2.5 at +180 for 2 units

 

[HeDucking]

I knew I was gonna be on Shevchenko, but after watching tape I'm favoring her a lot more than I thought I would. I have Shev's line set around -230.

Pena is one of the worst strikers I've ever seen. Her striking legitimately looks untrained. She can't cut off the cage or pressure effectively, she just runs in straight lines and follows her opponent. I don't think she does anything that will force Shevchenko into the clinch. In the Nunes fight, even when Nunes was fresh she couldn't get near Shev often or land clean with anything, I don't see Pena getting close enough to her to clinch often.

I watched the Zingano and Eye fights, and there were 0 times in both those fights where Pena forced an opponent who didn't want to clinch into the clinch. Every clinch was either mutual or initiated by her opponent. If Shevchenko doesn't want to clinch, I don't think she'll have to. I think the most likely outcome for this fight is that she sticks on the outside, lights Pena up with counters when she charges in, and pivots away for 25 minutes.

Even if Shevchenko does want to clinch (and I don't think she will if she feels like Pena is strong in the clinch, she seems well-coached and fights to intelligent gameplans), I think she'll be fine. I honestly don't think Pena is even good in the clinch. She has a solid inside/outside trip, but her positional control is bad. She doesn't really attempt to pummel and will just take whatever position you give her and try to take you down from there. Sometimes that results in weird sacrifice throw attempts that look like she was never taught to do them properly. She'll give up underhooks/whizzers to just throw pitter patter punches at your head. Also her clinch game falls apart when her opponent gets head position. Pena doesn't look to get her head under her opponent's and doesn't seem to know how to react when her opponent does. Eye kept her on the fence for a while with this while Pena looked confused and threw pitter patter punches at her head.

Every time Pena got on top of Zingano (outside of an inside trip in round 3) it was because Zingano did something really stupid. After watching tape, I think Pena isn`t a very good fighter and kinda lucked her way into the top of the division by getting good matchups against opponents with 0 fight IQ.

I think the most likely scenario is Shevchenko dominates her. I don't see this as a close fight and am going huge on Shev.

I said this a few pages back, Shev is gonna dominate after one or two rounds. Pena has terrible striking and Shev imo is the future champ of the division.

Well done for taking he time to write this well thought out post.

 

[Sham5916910]

Good news brits - this card starts at 9 so 4am finish worst case i guess

 

[HeDucking]

Still holm and nunes showed us one important thing, shev does not like power and aggression.

I think she's a real "fighter" at heart. She never gives up, iirc Nunes was beating her in the first round dominantly and Holm damn well dropped her and she came to dominate Holm for four rounds and nearly edge out Nunes. She'll beat Nunes in a five rounder. She isn't a flake like most of the other female fighters.

 

[Joseph Budden]

I think she's a real "fighter" at heart. She never gives up, iirc Nunes was beating her in the first round dominantly and Holm damn well dropped her and she came to dominate Holm for four rounds and nearly edge out Nunes. She'll beat Nunes in a five rounder. She isn't a flake like most of the other female fighters.

Nunes busted her face up pretty bad and Shev still won that third. You can def count on her heart based on tape

 

[HeDucking]

Nunes busted her face up pretty bad and Shev still won that third. You can def count on her heart based on tape

Exactly.

She's also a good grappler and she wont give up. Ill smash the +100 on my bookie once they change line.


Pena's mouth is gonna be shut for good. Gonna be good.

 

[AxeMurderer]

This is exactly how I originally thought of shev vs pena, just a bad style wise for shev but I am still in several minds about it more so after watching tape, ill touch up on it bit later.




I don't trust mas for saying he will get a finish, no doubt mas knows if he wants ufc gold he needs to finish cowboy though but masvidal is just as bad as pearson is when it comes to split decisions.
Quick glance at that numbers, masvidal has 8 decisions in last 10 fights.

Starting to think the overs and split decision props are worth it here.




That pace would have reduced I reckon, mas has always had his tentative or lack of output moments or almost taking a round off but recently he appears to have tweaked it so he fights more conserved during rounds and has burst of aggressions, its that tweak imo that has allowed masvidal to actually win actual decisions rather then split lose them.

I have to admit that I am not as sure as i was when this fight was first announced. Shev is better in the clinch than i originally thought. I do still believe if pena gets her down, she is staying down til the round ends. I really like penas top game. Looking forward to your thoughts.

 

[Card]

I'm number 1, I'm a nightmare matchup for anyone, the UFC really wanted me to take this fight, they kept pushing it and pushing it, saying other girls would pass me and get the title shot if I don't take this fight, was alot of pressure from the UFC, and the fans and Shevchenko saying I'm afraid of her, I deserved a title shot, but the fans didn't think that, so now I will prove it, I've been b*tching and moaning to the UFC for a while, I've deserved a title shot for a couple years now, and I don't know why they won't give it to me, I've watched every video on her, I know everything, she's a strong fighter, I've never met another fighter more dominant than me, I expect a great finish, my gameplan hasn't changed, i come forward just like all the other girls, bite down on my mouthpiece, I always prepare the same, there is nothing she'll show that I'm not ready for

 

[Card]

We opened up a gym last year, my brother is head instructor, business is picking up, we get together a couple times a week, I also train at different spots, we have too, last loss I came back from surgery, my timing wasn't there, no excuses, TJ was coming off three 5 rounders, this fight was supposed to happen (he pulled out due to injury), Dodson was offered but it was too close, 3 days after it was rebooked, not a big deal, he's confident, but I'm here to prove he's not on my level, I'm not getting any younger, but I feel great, I'm stepping up in my training, wrestling, cuban boxing, train MMA with my brothers, I want to stay relevant, family and pray to god everyday, I've never had a title shot, I have to impose my game, get out there a little more, I have no gameplan, I'm confident in my skills, he better bring it, shout out to the hardcore fans out there

 

[Stunna77]

Just watched a few fights for Shev and Pena (UFC fight pass didn't have Pena vs Cat though, anyone have link?). I went in thinking I would favor Pena, but may pass now. She is reckless striking just pushing forward into the pocket throwing random strikes and Shev is a great counter striker. Shev doesn't lead much or throw a lot of volume, but that probably won't matter as Pena will be constantly moving into the pocket. That said Pena did show some nice trips from the clinch which Nunes used very effectively against Shev. Also Shev has lost against the two fighters she has fought that are most similar to Pena in Carmouche and Nunes. Meaning decently athletic girls that are going to try to clinch and grapple. Tough fight to call, I could see Shev piecing her up on the feet, but still getting taken down enough to lose the fight. No bet for now for me.