UFC FN: Sergei Pavlovich vs. Curtis Blaydes, April 22

[EndlessCritic]

You could also say Hardy looked really good compared to her previous performances.

I have bet Lucindo. I thought she looked really good against someone with champ potential.

Jauregui didn't look like champ potential in her last fight.

 

[Jasper_RB81]

Whoa...huh? She looked awful imo. Her entries were brutal. When she finally got the body lock, she was so rushed and sloppy that she ended up on her back. She looked pretty tired even in rd 2. Her striking wasn't supposed to be good, but I think it actually looked worse than expected.
She got totally dominated in a fight where she was like -350 or more.

I haven't completely written Miller of as thrash just yet. I feel like she might have gone in to the fight a bit overconfident. Everyone said she would run through Hardy easy... perhaps she bought in to the hype a bit too much.

 

[JC615]

I'm not saying Lucindo will lose, but we also saw the biggest robbery of the year in the first fight last weekend and I can see Vegas cleaning up with a Lucindo loss crushing a lot of people's parlays. This fight is a straight pass for me.

 

[mkess101]

I haven't completely written Miller of as thrash just yet. I feel like she might have gone in to the fight a bit overconfident. Everyone said she would run through Hardy easy... perhaps she bought in to the hype a bit too much.

Possible. She has a shit ton to work on though.

 

[SalvadorAllende]

Holy fuk.

The Usman/ Tafa odds are now a pick 'em, after Usman was +200 according to someone on here only a few weeks ago.

Has to be because everyone has realised it's not the same Tafa, which is ironic as apparently this Tafa is less shit lol.

Probably the most meme circumstances in UFC betting I've seen since I've been following it.

I think they are betting on his last name. Mohammad Usman sucks IMO.. he is not good.

I put money on Tafa at near evens. He could lose but I think he should be favored.


Also big on Green. He is not retiring after all and he is levels above Gordon. I know it has been discussed to death in here so not much to add.

 

[SalvadorAllende]

There has been a huge drop off in takedown attempts by Blaydes in his last fights compared to when he fought Alex and before. He’s mixed in more striking than usual. And Sergei has the uppercut in his arsenal to shut him down.

Curtis has been standing and banging lately.. like he wants to prove a point or something.

He did it with Daukaus and with Aspinall.

 

[Captain Chesapeake]

Curtis has been standing and banging lately.. like he wants to prove a point or something.

He did it with Daukaus and with Aspinall.

are you seriously using a 15 second fight as an example that he will stand with Pavlovich?

History says he will wrestle. He’s done it every single fight he’s been in except daukaus and daukaus isn’t a heavyweight

Can Sergei catch him? I don’t think he times him and memes him like Lewis did. That’s an anomaly

can he stuff his takedowns? Maybe. Not many guys stop blaydes blast double. It’s elite. Even when he telegraphs it he still gets the td. How
Long will pavs cardio hold up in a wrestling heavy fight?

if I’m Blaydes I’m leaning on him early and often. He’s too dangerous to engage with early

 

[SalvadorAllende]

are you seriously using a 15 second fight as an example that he will stand with Pavlovich?

History says he will wrestle. He’s done it every single fight he’s been in except daukaus and daukaus isn’t a heavyweight

Can Sergei catch him? I don’t think he times him and memes him like Lewis did. That’s an anomaly

can he stuff his takedowns? Maybe. Not many guys stop blaydes blast double. It’s elite. Even when he telegraphs it he still gets the td. How
Long will pavs cardio hold up in a wrestling heavy fight?

if I’m Blaydes I’m leaning on him early and often. He’s too dangerous to engage with early

That fight has pass written all over it tbh. I'm not touching that.. I will be just an enjoyer saturday night.

 

[Captain Chesapeake]

That fight has pass written all over it tbh. I'm not touching that.. I will be just an enjoyer saturday night.

I’m flip flopping whether I want to keep my blaydes bet, so I should probably pass

 

[mkess101]

are you seriously using a 15 second fight as an example that he will stand with Pavlovich?

History says he will wrestle. He’s done it every single fight he’s been in except daukaus and daukaus isn’t a heavyweight

Can Sergei catch him? I don’t think he times him and memes him like Lewis did. That’s an anomaly

can he stuff his takedowns? Maybe. Not many guys stop blaydes blast double. It’s elite. Even when he telegraphs it he still gets the td. How
Long will pavs cardio hold up in a wrestling heavy fight?

if I’m Blaydes I’m leaning on him early and often. He’s too dangerous to engage with early

Lewis had to time him to land that shot though. He doesn't have near the handspeed to blitz with a combo and sneak 1 or 2 punches through that hurt someone. Lewis still has power of course, but Pavlovich has an entirely different skillset that allows him to just go all offense, blitz with combos, and hurt guys immediately.

That's not to say Blaydes maybe doesn't just duck underneath, hit a power double, and smoke Sergei on the mat. Or land a counter and hurt him standing. For sure both of those are very much in play. I just think Pavlovich's ability to put punches together and swarm makes him somewhat a unique threat at HW right now.

I kinda like under 1.5 even with the juice. I think Sergei won't stray from what he does and one of them finishes pretty early.

 

[Captain Chesapeake]

Lewis had to time him to land that shot though. He doesn't have near the handspeed to blitz with a combo and sneak 1 or 2 punches through that hurt someone. Lewis still has power of course, but Pavlovich has an entirely different skillset that allows him to just go all offense, blitz with combos, and hurt guys immediately.

That's not to say Blaydes maybe doesn't just duck underneath, hit a power double, and smoke Sergei on the mat. Or land a counter and hurt him standing. For sure both of those are very much in play. I just think Pavlovich's ability to put punches together and swarm makes him somewhat a unique threat at HW right now.

I kinda like under 1.5 even with the juice. I think Sergei won't stray from what he does and one of them finishes pretty early.

Yea the blitzing would be my concern and of course that opens him up to being taken down.

the reason I don’t like the under is blaydes. If he gets the td we’ve seen him content to just wear on guys instead of using his gnp. It could take him longer to wear Sergei out.

 

[DabanggData]

Priscila Cachoeira vs. Karine Silva is canceled.
Cachoeira missed weight by 4 pounds. She turns 35 in August.
The two sides were apparently unable to agree on a purse penalty after Cachoeria weighed in 4 pounds heavy.


UFC Vegas 71

https://www.betonline.ag/sportsbook/martial-arts/mma/ufc-vegas-71

https://twitter.com/search?q=#UFCVegas71&src=hashtag_click&f=live

Parlay +108 seems okay:
Montel Jackson
Bobby Green
Iasmin Lucindo

A lot of these other favorites look pretty small at the faceoffs including Tafa

BetOnline props to look at, lines as of Friday:
Blaydes wins by TKO/KO in round 1 +365 (this is +260 elsewhere)
Marshall wins by decision +195
Batgerel wins by TKO/KO in round 2 +775
Glenn/Giagos goes to decision -125
Wells/Semelsberger goes to decision +160
Lucindo wins by decision -105
Bobby Green wins by decision -115
Tavares/Silva goes to decision +115
Tafa wins by TKO/KO +130

"Blaydes strikes behind an intelligent jab and leg kick early in round 1. He uses those range strikes to keep opponents off of him while also giving them things to think about near their head and legs, thereby exposing what Blaydes is truly hunting: the hips. Once an opponent starts to counter strike or backpedal from his volume, they often leave their hips exposed. In an instant, Blaydes exploits the opening and explodes into a single or double-leg takedown. Blaydes’ background is in college wrestling, where he was an NJCAA champion on the mat. Blaydes brings that same style and tenacity into the octagon. Once he gets an opponent down, the round typically ends with him on top, either because the clock hit 0:00 or Blaydes found the finish. Blaydes has incredible top pressure and smoothly advances position, typically looking for side control or mount. Once in position, “Razor” truly earns his nickname and rains heavy elbows down on his opponent. Once he starts, the only way he stops is via finish or the round ending. On paper, Blaydes’ style is the perfect style to combat the immense power threat of Pavlovich. This is because Blaydes has legitimate heavyweight size, threatening enough power to bring caution to a blitz-opponent, and most importantly, elite wrestling to shoot a takedown once the power is blitzed towards him"

 

[mkess101]

Yea the blitzing would be my concern and of course that opens him up to being taken down.

the reason I don’t like the under is blaydes. If he gets the td we’ve seen him content to just wear on guys instead of using his gnp. It could take him longer to wear Sergei out.

I kinda think Blaydes can do some damage even on the mat.

 

[Bakayoko]

who the hell is betting on lucindo at -360? walker has beaten maverick ffs.

With a hard heart cause I told myself to be carefull playing juiced wmma i put her in a parlay at -300.
It's that Lucindo looks to have her covered everywhere.What's Walker's path to victory?Both are sloppy and hittable on the feet but Lucindo's got faster hands with more power and an ocasional middle kick.She should have the grappling upside ,physically stronger,better takedowns,she ragdolled that gal before UFC debut who's a judo and JJ black belt.Also a pitbull,while Walker's flakey,on top of her being 21 and improving.If this flops I'm really staying out of playing wmma favorites for some time.

 

[Captain Chesapeake]

I kinda think Blaydes can do some damage even on the mat.

He should be able to…I dunno maybe it’s just the memory of having him itd vs volkov and him laying on him for 5 rounds

 

[JC615]

What's Walker's path to victory?

Seemingly not many paths to victory but then again, what was Edward's path to victory against Pudilova? Shitty judging.

 

[sonhow]

Jauregui didn't look like champ potential in her last fight.

Struggled with a one round fighter. In the first. But I give her a pass as Nunes is quite sharp early. If she fought Grasso or Weili now shed lose but Ive seen enough good things from her to predict her career trajectory and it looks like a good one.

 

[xhaydenx]

who the hell is betting on lucindo at -360? walker has beaten maverick ffs.

Maverick isn't that good and Brogan is an absolute can. Her vs Miller was probably the worst TUF finale I've ever seen, skill-wise.

Lucindo was competitive against Jauregai for 3 rounds. I can't see Brogan surviving 1.5 against either Lucindo or Jauregai.

 

[xhaydenx]

Seemingly not many paths to victory but then again, what was Edward's path to victory against Pudilova? Shitty judging.

Edwards won because she did more damaging strikes and Lucilova is a proven DNB.

Brogan is just crap and has no paths to victory outside of Lucindo hurting herself or something.

 

[xhaydenx]

Struggled with a one round fighter. In the first. But I give her a pass as Nunes is quite sharp early. If she fought Grasso or Weili now shed lose but Ive seen enough good things from her to predict her career trajectory and it looks like a good one.

Wouldn't even say she struggled. She got dropped once by a girl who has looked dominant in all her last 3 1st rounds, but Jasmin had the fight firmly in control by the end of the round and Istella breathing heaving already.