UFC FN: Sergei Pavlovich vs. Curtis Blaydes, April 22

[carolinagrapple]

What do you guys think about the following price pick lines that jumped out to me:

Taveres over/under 10 mins

Blydes over under 6 mins

Ricky 4 takedowns

Blydes 2 takedowns

 

[Stat_Collector]

Montel Jackson should ko Yahya who is 38 and hasn't fought since 2021. Near retirement age. Yahya is very hittable and borders in the realm of Royce/Maia school of striking.

Jackson is at risk of being grounded by the crafty high level bjj guy. However i think youth ,athleticism and activity will prevail. Jackson has wrestling credentials. and while -600 is not parlay worthy, a juicy prop bet at rounds 1-2 is the play for me. Yahya hasn't been koed in a long time but he does get dropped kd and recovers well but i see this being his last fight ending in a devastating ko .

 

[Captain Chesapeake]

I think Bruno Silva had an off night against Meer.

If same Silva shows up that fought Poatan then Silva wins this fight. Love that +150 range price now. What is Tavares's path to victory?

Silva was in the hospital sick before that fight.

I was told it was on his instagram but I don’t see it there any more

 

[Thesnake101]

Montel Jackson should ko Yahya who is 38 and hasn't fought since 2021. Near retirement age. Yahya is very hittable and borders in the realm of Royce/Maia school of striking.

Jackson is at risk of being grounded by the crafty high level bjj guy. However i think youth ,athleticism and activity will prevail. Jackson has wrestling credentials. and while -600 is not parlay worthy, a juicy prop bet at rounds 1-2 is the play for me. Yahya hasn't been koed in a long time but he does get dropped kd and recovers well but i see this being his last fight ending in a devastating ko .

I might just do Jackson by KO with a Yahya sub hedge, have a hard time seeing the fight ending any other way.

It's crazy how big of a favorite Montel is honestly, sub odds for Rani will probably be too ridiculous to pass up.

 

[Stat_Collector]

I might just do Jackson by KO with a Yahya sub hedge, have a hard time seeing the fight ending any other way.

It's crazy how big of a favorite Montel is honestly, sub odds for Rani will probably be too ridiculous to pass up.

If Montel gets tapped, it's likely a heel hook. His small calfs, if he hangs in the guard he can get caught, i think his sub defense from the bottom will hold. i think it could happen if it's a flash submission.

 

[mkess101]

What do you guys think about the following price pick lines that jumped out to me:

Taveres over/under 10 mins

Blydes over under 6 mins

Ricky 4 takedowns

Blydes 2 takedowns

Don't mind any of them really but Simon/Song is being moved out a week and will be 5 rounds so that one is not valid.

Blades under 26.5 sig strikes I think I like best for that fight. Tavares minutes...that one IDK. Silva is so aggressive, I could see a finish before rd 3 possibly. Probably a pass on that one.

 

[UFCIsNOTRigged]

The Danaa line moved -165 to -135 they saw his fight with Alatengheili and notice how basic his grappling defense is. I have to agree but i can't write off a bet for Brady who looks sloppy on the feet. Looks like two guys who stylistically match well , one having the counter strength to the other's weakness. And for that reason I'm Out.
Pass

My inclination is almost always to take the grappler in these striker-grappler matchups but Brady just doesn't have the durability to make me believe he can survive striking exchanges with a power striker like Danaaa who sits down on everything. Getting dropped by Ricky Turcios and Ferne Garcia doesn't bode well for his chances. If Brady manages to get top control I don't think he will able to maintain it for any meaningful period of time outside of maybe the third round which is when Danaa starts to slow down. Brady's control didn't look good in the first two of rounds of both the Turcios and Garcia fights.

 

[Stat_Collector]

My inclination is almost always to take the grappler in these striker-grappler matchups but Brady just doesn't have the durability to make me believe he can survive striking exchanges with a power striker like Danaaa who sits down on everything. Getting dropped by Ricky Turcios and Ferne Garcia doesn't bode well for his chances. If Brady manages to get top control I don't think he will able to maintain it for any meaningful period of time outside of maybe the third round which is when Danaa starts to slow down. Brady's control didn't look good in the first two of rounds of both the Turcios and Garcia fights.

yeah but secured a lot of ctrl time.I think it has to do with how long Danaa got controlled and he looked like a turtle off his back in that 3rd round. He’s one of those guys who pulls guard and lets the timer run. Doesn’t create space and then pop back up. his only getup in that 3rd round was using the cage to reverse. But his overall getup is worst than Fernie and Turcios. But i also feel the same way about Brady’s chin and striking defense.

last thing too is Brady training with Merab and Sterling. is it a new training camp, im not sure? but i just have a bad feeling about this.

 

[Stat_Collector]

Taping Wells , the dude is going to get clocked with a counter if he constantly lunges with flurries. i can see him becoming overzealous with his hands and getting countered with a right. Guys who lung like that are a liability. This fight just spells viral knockout from either side.

Wells by sub/ko or Matthew by ko are both viable plays.

 

[DalchaLungiambula]

Holy fuk.

The Usman/ Tafa odds are now a pick 'em, after Usman was +200 according to someone on here only a few weeks ago.

Has to be because everyone has realised it's not the same Tafa, which is ironic as apparently this Tafa is less shit lol.

Probably the most meme circumstances in UFC betting I've seen since I've been following it.

 

[Thesnake101]

If Montel gets tapped, it's likely a heel hook. His small calfs, if he hangs in the guard he can get caught, i think his sub defense from the bottom will hold. i think it could happen if it's a flash submission.

Probably any limb related hold will be Rani's best bet here, given Jackson's length and all.

It is quite likely Montel just overwhelms him, but for all his athletic gifts he's a bit too overzealous to the point of becoming quite sloppy, which should open up grappling opportunities for Rani.

 

[Jasper_RB81]

I took Blaydes vs Pavlovich under 1.5 at -140, i feel that this is a rock solid bet at these odds.

Could go over if Blaydes takes him down and doesnt go for the finish, but most likely they both have huge finishing potential early.

 

[Yotsuya]

He survived Khaos Williams without even getting rocked, so he might do it.

There's the chance Wells resorts to his grappling instead though, like he did against Poop Diamond.

I only did 2+2 tape and Wiki-capping. Does Wells have 3 rounds of grappling in him?

 

[DalchaLungiambula]

I took Blaydes vs Pavlovich under 1.5 at -140, i feel that this is a rock solid bet at these odds.

Could go over if Blaydes takes him down and doesnt go for the finish, but most likely they both have huge finishing potential early.

Blaydes is pillow fisted and has only KOed the who's who of glass chins on the feet (JDS/ Daukaus).

On the ground he's only finished Overeem and Shamil - with the Overeem one being a formality as Rogan was calling for the finish minutes earlier as Overeem was so gassed and defenceless.

He has shown no real craft on the ground to date - not saying it won't come, but your betting on something that hasn't really been shown to exist yet.

In saying that, Sergei's ground game looked non-existent off his back vs Reem, but you would have to think training for a wrestler he will be a little bit better prepared.

Likewise I would be expecting his TDD to be better here. Blaydes couldn't even manage to get a TD on Lewis in 6.5 mins of fight time anyway FFS.

I would be taking the over here. As Gianni always says: "Fade the narrative".

 

[Captain Chesapeake]

Blaydes is pillow fisted and has only KOed the who's who of glass chins on the feet (JDS/ Daukaus).

On the ground he's only finished Overeem and Shamil - with the Overeem one being a formality as Rogan was calling for the finish minutes earlier as Overeem was so gassed and defenceless.

He has shown no real craft on the ground to date - not saying it won't come, but your betting on something that hasn't really been shown to exist yet.

In saying that, Sergei's ground game looked non-existent off his back vs Reem, but you would have to think training for a wrestler he will be a little bit better prepared.

Likewise I would be expecting his TDD to be better here. Blaydes couldn't even manage to get a TD on Lewis in 6.5 mins of fight time anyway FFS.

I would be taking the over here. As Gianni always says: "Fade the narrative".

Blaydes didn’t attempt a takedown on Lewis.

i don’t rate him as much of a finisher, but he’s got a great blast double and he will lay and wear on you

 

[Thesnake101]

I only did 2+2 tape and Wiki-capping. Does Wells have 3 rounds of grappling in him?

If he doesn't commit too much to swinging for the fences standing, I'd think so. He's gone 5 rounds a couple of times, and he's got over a decade of experience if you count his amateur stint.

But there is a real worry that he's fallen in love with his ugly yet very powerful striking.

 

[Stat_Collector]

historically Blaydes always loses to heavy handed fighters like these . Francis and Lewis are the same heavy handed archetypes as Sergei. But there is doubt Sergei hasn’t shown proof of improvement to his wrestling defense. it’s a shot in the dark that Blaydes wont do the same as Overeem . not enough information.

 

[Jasper_RB81]

Blaydes is pillow fisted and has only KOed the who's who of glass chins on the feet (JDS/ Daukaus).

On the ground he's only finished Overeem and Shamil - with the Overeem one being a formality as Rogan was calling for the finish minutes earlier as Overeem was so gassed and defenceless.

He has shown no real craft on the ground to date - not saying it won't come, but your betting on something that hasn't really been shown to exist yet.

In saying that, Sergei's ground game looked non-existent off his back vs Reem, but you would have to think training for a wrestler he will be a little bit better prepared.

Likewise I would be expecting his TDD to be better here. Blaydes couldn't even manage to get a TD on Lewis in 6.5 mins of fight time anyway FFS.

I would be taking the over here. As Gianni always says: "Fade the narrative".

If Blaydes can't take down Sergei then I reckon he's going to sleep. If he can take him down, then it's the improvement of Sergei that will dictate the outcome. I think Blaydes is looking to make a statement if he gets him down. He wants a crack a Jones and a finish over Sergei might be what it takes.
Obviously when you are dropping the wisdom of Gianni on me, it makes me a little bit nervous. But despite that I'm feeling very good about this bet. We shall see.

 

[Captain Chesapeake]

historically Blaydes always loses to heavy handed fighters like these . Francis and Lewis are the same heavy handed archetypes as Sergei. But there is doubt Sergei hasn’t shown proof of improvement to his wrestling defense. it’s a shot in the dark that Blaydes wont do the same as Overeem . not enough information.

Blaydes was doing fine against Lewis until
He got memed And that was all standup.
What about rosenstruik and hunt? They’re aren’t aggressive but still big power punchers

 

[DalchaLungiambula]

Blaydes didn’t attempt a takedown on Lewis.

i don’t rate him as much of a finisher, but he’s got a great blast double and he will lay and wear on you

Yeah, that's my point.

Dude has anxiety or whatever it is, and is seemingly too shit scared to go for a takedown at times.

And don't give me the "he was winning the stand-up, he didn't need to go for a takedown" nonsense.

You don't stand and bang with someone with the record for KO's in the UFC who has absolutely appalling TDD. If in fact that was his intention then his fight IQ is an even bigger issue than anything else.

I don't think it's a coincidence he got KOed the first time he shot for a TD against Lewis. It was telegraphed as all hell and he was second-guessing himself the whole time which took him out of his flow state. Then there was him moaning and groaning when he was out like he was having a nightmare. Combined with his speech impediment it is obvious he has a couple of stumbling blocks mentally speaking - which is fine, nothing wrong with any of it, dude is just mad unreliable at this point as far as what you can expect from him from a betting perspective.

That being said, after studying at Gianni's school of wisdom and logic and it's application in sports betting since last year I am inclined to believe that an over 1.5 rounds result is on the cards.