UFC FN: Sergei Pavlovich vs. Curtis Blaydes, April 22

[Stat_Collector]

Green’s better literally everywhere. I fully expect him to be around -200. Gordon’s getting gassed up because he had a close fight with Paddy that a lot of people thought he should’ve won but Green would style on Paddy.

Green is an inconstant winner. He's racked up many losses in his career and if you look at all the fighters who took him to split decision or won by ud in a fight he should have won.

Moises, Trinaldo, Klose, Lando(draw), and arguably Fiziev.

I think Jared is at the same skill level to at least three of those fighters. For some odd reason or another the judges hate Green's style of throwing lots of flickering jabs and throwing straight kicks to the leg. If Jared goes in there and lands cleaner hooks, punches the body and pushes Green against the cage, what makes you think two judges wont give it to Gordon? this is ufc judging after all. Any fight that has 75% chance of hitting the score cards is going to receive a weak lean from me. Only if it's a dominant grappler than can lay and pray to a decision am I going to lean heavy.

 

[Captain Chesapeake]

Jared has a solid boxing guard and a decent check hook. I don't see what guys see. I give Green props, he has head movement, high volume but he is reckless with his defense, and it showed his last fight with his chin being exposed why it's dangerous to fight that way. Green's style requires sharp reflexes, while he has shown that in the past, I'm concern that he is going to be shot . he might lose the scrambles for top position the way Gordon was able to top Paddy , and Gordon successfully blocked a lot of shots from Paddy. Green's last fight in the ufc can end two ways, a blow out or losing in typical Green fashion, getting robbed in a split decision and him being poetically cursed.

You forgot to mention the hand speed. Gordon doesn’t have fast twitch muscles and he doesn’t have power. For every punch he lands green will land 3

 

[Jinx_AA]

Green is an inconstant winner. He's racked up many losses in his career and if you look at all the fighters who took him to split decision or won by ud in a fight he should have won.

Moises, Trinaldo, Klose, Lando(draw), and arguably Fiziev.

I think Jared is at the same skill level to at least three of those fighters. For some odd reason or another the judges hate Green's style of throwing lots of flickering jabs and throwing straight kicks to the leg. If Jared goes in there and lands cleaner hooks, punches the body and pushes Green against the cage, what makes you think two judges wont give it to Gordon? this is ufc judging after all. Any fight that has 75% chance of hitting the score cards is going to receive a weak lean from me. Only if it's a dominant grappler than can lay and pray to a decision am I going to lean heavy.

I don’t think Gordon is as good as anyone there …. maybe Lando …. Everyone else there is a level or 2 better then Gordon ! …. And Gordon’s slow and has no power so even the chance of catching green isn’t there .

greens probably the better wrestler too - he’s generally very hard to takedown (aside from Islam) …. He has an American wrestling background so I don’t see Gordon grounding him if the others couldn’t

So green should absolutely tool him on the feet …. Avoid the ground shouldn’t be hard ….. so that leaves Gordon with the only option to win is to pin him on the fence

after losing to paddy by pinning him in the fence I would think he ain’t gunna try that again or he risks being cut

I don’t see Gordon being successful anywhere here , even if he tries to wall and stall

 

[Stat_Collector]

You forgot to mention the hand speed. Gordon doesn’t have fast twitch muscles and he doesn’t have power. For every punch he lands green will land 3

What do all of green's losses have in common (90% of his losses?)


Despite have Equal or more Significant strikes. The judges said 'nah'.

I'm not saying Jared has it in the Bag . I picked Green to win, but I have to go by the stats and his history of being screwed out of score cards even when he landed 40+ strikes against Moises.

Stats are my key factor for picking winner. Im always measuring ctrl time, Opponent rating, takedown rating, getups, cage strl, judging history and chin resistance , stamina etc.

Based on stats, 90% chance Green/Jared hits the scorecards, 50% chance we get a split decision, and then there is another % chance Green may not be at his best form nearing retirement and getting knocked out in his last fight. I still picked Green to win regardless, but no way in hell am I giving Green a green checkmark.

 

[Stat_Collector]

I don’t think Gordon is as good as anyone there …. maybe Lando …. Everyone else there is a level or 2 better then Gordon ! …. And Gordon’s slow and has no power so even the chance of catching green isn’t there .

greens probably the better wrestler too - he’s generally very hard to takedown (aside from Islam) …. He has an American wrestling background so I don’t see Gordon grounding him if the others couldn’t

So green should absolutely tool him on the feet …. Avoid the ground shouldn’t be hard ….. so that leaves Gordon with the only option to win is to pin him on the fence

after losing to paddy by pinning him in the fence I would think he ain’t gunna try that again or he risks being cut

I don’t see Gordon being successful anywhere here , even if he tries to wall and stall

I think Jared could beat Klose who looked like shit in his last fight, Lando, and Trinaldo via grappling.

Fiziev and Moises beat him.

Jared has a fundamental style from wrestling to striking, enough to catch Green with counter punches and mix a td in the mix. If Green comes in half ass trained, he could lose.

 

[Thesnake101]

I think Jared could beat Klose who looked like shit in his last fight, Lando, and Trinaldo via grappling.

Fiziev and Moises beat him.

Jared has a fundamental style from wrestling to striking, enough to catch Green with counter punches and mix a td in the mix. If Green comes in half ass trained, he could lose.

Honestly think a lot of people here are underrating Jared simply because his style is not very impressive or flashy.

Green as a moderate to big favorite over anyone willing to wrestle him should be a pass imo.

 

[Stat_Collector]

Honestly think a lot of people here are underrating Jared simply because his style is not very impressive or flashy.

Green as a moderate to big favorite over anyone willing to wrestle him should be a pass imo.

Yeah sometimes fundamental fighting style is the perfect equalizer to a flashy style .

It's like what Conor said about precision beating speed. Every time Green goes in there with his fast combinations, Jared can hold his ground, hit em with a check hook, throw a few calf kicks to throw his rhythm off and then takedown and turn this to an mma fight instead of a kick boxing fight, and you have a much closer fight than expected.

 

[StewDogg11]

I think Jared could beat Klose who looked like shit in his last fight, Lando, and Trinaldo via grappling.

Fiziev and Moises beat him.

Jared has a fundamental style from wrestling to striking, enough to catch Green with counter punches and mix a td in the mix. If Green comes in half ass trained, he could lose.

Whenever has Green come in half ass trained? It’s weird you don’t trust him but trust a former heroin addict.

 

[Stat_Collector]

Whenever has Green come in half ass trained? It’s weird you don’t trust him but trust a former heroin addict.

if this is his last fight , he could be there for one last check. my first post about green is admittedly saying i don’t know his state of mind where it’s at. He could be gun shy because he got koed .

Im not saying he will be 100% half ass trained but it’s a possibility we see a lack luster performance in his last going.

Also Brennan Ward was a drug addict who came back and beat Homasi and looked good recently. ppl like that who have been through shit develop a strong mind and grit.

 

[Stat_Collector]

im honestly dead set in parlaying these.

 

[Kenny95]

yeah bobby green gunna smoke him

he’s made it public it’s his retirement fight

and green is the definition of company man that Dana and the ufc really like behind the scenes …. They’re giving him a layup retirement fight and probably a bonus after it too

Green is a lock here !

Blaydes/pavlovich winner is the best hw in the world

I was figuring that this was a comfortable fight for gordon as a reward for fighting paddy and getting "robbed". Should he a close competitive fight for both fighters. Green just got KTFO. Paddy might be an overrated hype train but he's no slouch and is a big LW and gordon put the fight on him. Neither gordon or green should be fighting killer contenders at their age and their career stage.

 

[mkess101]

Green is likely gonna style on Gordon. He's way faster, way better hands, and Gordon doesn't have the dynamite power that Dober does to lose a round and a half and then end it with one shot. Green has a unique style with his hands low and great head movement that helps his counter wrestling a ton. Gordon's striking is semi-effective vs mediocre guys who are worried about him taking them down. Green is neither of those.

Getting nuked by one shot by Dober and taken down and mauled by Islam really have little bearing on how this fight likely plays out. Gordon is an okay wrestler, but probably not good enough to get to Green's hips and take him down. And Gordon just isn't nearly good enough a striker to hang with Green. In a striking only match, I think Nasrat would clown Gordon and Green completely shut Nasrat down.

I mean, a year and a half ago Green was putting it on Fisiev in rd 3 of their fight and could have won. Fisiev would maul Gordon.

I think Green makes this look relatively easy.

 

[StewDogg11]

if this is his last fight , he could be there for one last check. my first post about green is admittedly saying i don’t know his state of mind where it’s at. He could be gun shy because he got koed .

Im not saying he will be 100% half ass trained but it’s a possibility we see a lack luster performance in his last going.

Also Brennan Ward was a drug addict who came back and beat Homasi and looked good recently. ppl like that who have been through shit develop a strong mind and grit.

Theyre also not nearly as healthy or as good as they could’ve been. You couldn’t tell me Matt Brown wouldnt have been way better if he wouldn’t have wrecked his body with years of hard drug use.

The fact Green is retiring now tells me he’s going out near the top of his powers and not just cashing checks like Ovince St. Preux or Shogun. Similar to how Chris Lytle performed in his last fight.

 

[Stat_Collector]

Theyre also not nearly as healthy or as good as they could’ve been. You couldn’t tell me Matt Brown wouldnt have been way better if he wouldn’t have wrecked his body with years of hard drug use.

The fact Green is retiring now tells me he’s going out near the top of his powers and not just cashing checks like Ovince St. Preux or Shogun. Similar to how Chris Lytle performed in his last fight.

good call back I remember the Lytle fight.

I sound like I'm defending Gordon but I still picked Green to win. Im just more cautious here. So be it if he wins. I have zero interest in betting Jared , i'm more just going to lower exposure to Green and will see how he does. The same way I treated Emmers on his comeback fight. It's always hindsight we look back and say 'why was i so worried about?' but sometimes i have to play it safe.

 

[DabanggData]

UFC FN: Sergei Pavlovich vs. Curtis Blaydes, April 22

Yadong Song vs. Ricky Simón is the co-main event

https://www.tapology.com/fightcenter/events/97433-ufc-fight-night
https://www.tapology.com/forum/threads/71563

 

[StewDogg11]

Odds are out. Green opened at -280.

 

[Kamais_Ookin]

Hammered Tavares -150, he should be double juiced

 

[Jasper_RB81]

Mohammed Usman at +220.
Tafa has that KO power but he's pretty bad and I don't rate his last two wins very high. Usman hasn't really impressed me either but that line is to wide in my opinion.

 

[sonhow]

View attachment 970425
Stats are my key factor for picking winner. Im always measuring ctrl time, Opponent rating, takedown rating, getups, cage strl, judging history and chin resistance , stamina etc.
.

So thats the reason for the username

 

[asdasdasdasd]

Pavlovich vs Blaydes is a banger, hard to gauge where Pavlovich's TDD is now.