UFC FN: Sergei Pavlovich vs. Curtis Blaydes, April 22

[mkess101]

Read the criteria. It literally says that actions that have the potential to bring immediate end to a fight are weighed more heavily than anything else.

Luci lost the striking for the first 1.5 mins, then just laid on top while not threatening any sort of ending, only to have Edwards get up and start unloading on her in the final 10 seconds while she was desperately trying to cling on for another td.

That's how she lost the round. That's not spinning anything. It's exactly how the criteria is written. If you can't understand how this is true then you need to watch more fights, because this is absolutely not the first time it's happened, and definitely not with WMMA where visuals are key.

We're never gonna agree. I feel that in my mid 40's, having followed the sport for 20+ years, trained, fought, cornered guys, and bet on this shit that "watching more fights" isn't likely to help me bridge that gap.

A wild swing and miss is "an action that has the potential to bring an end to a fight". Should that get credit while a takedown and control doesn't?

This is going nowhere, good luck to you man. All good.

 

[xhaydenx]

We're never gonna agree. I feel that in my mid 40's, having followed the sport for 20+ years, trained, fought, cornered guys, and bet on this shit that "watching more fights" isn't likely to help me bridge that gap.

A wild swing and miss is "an action that has the potential to bring an end to a fight". Should that get credit while a takedown and control doesn't?

This is going nowhere, good luck to you man. All good.

Maybe "watching more fights" wasn't the right thing to say. Sorry about that. Probably should have said watch more WMMA fights. I mainly bet on WMMA, so maybe I'm way more used to this sort of thing. I study decisions like this in WMMA a fair bit.

And as for should the td and control be credited more? I actually think so, but I'm just saying what the rules state and what studying these fights have shown me.

 

[Captain Chesapeake]

I had 1k on Luci and had no problem with the decision. Spare me the lame "fight fixing" nonsense.

You can easily make a case for Edwards if you read the scoring criteria and understand how visuals are everything in WMMA.

You can't hold someone down for 3+ mins, throw nothing but a few rabbit punches, go for no subs, and then win the round when your opponent gets up and starts landing shots on you, especially not when you lost all the striking at the start of the round. MMA hasn't worked like that for years lol.

Nope

 

[xhaydenx]

Nope

Literally yep, as seen by the fact that Edwards won lol.

But hey, keep saying ignorant crap like "fight fixing" if you want. Lol at the idea of anyone giving enough of a shit about Luci/Edwards to fix it.

 

[Captain Chesapeake]

Literally yep, as seen by the fact that Edwards won lol.

But hey, keep saying ignorant crap like "fight fixing" if you want. Lol at the idea of anyone giving enough of a shit about Luci/Edwards to fix it.

Yea there’s no such thing as fixed fights

 

[xhaydenx]

Yea there’s no such thing as fixed fights

But on Luci/Edwards? Come on, mate. No one gives enough of a shit about those two.

I don't even disagree with you that Luci should have won. I don't really like the scoring, but it's just the way it is. Look like you're the one trying to finish and it'll get you most of the way in WMMA.

 

[Serge421]

I am happy

 

[sonhow]

-I think Blaydes as long as keeps his head straight and doesnt panic should be able to handle Sergei. I f you go for the Russian imo 1-2 rds prop is must but I feel Curtis gets on top and smothers him out.
-Tavares is more competent than Silva and you just can't tell anything about that good about Bruno after that GM3 loss. You could say GM3 is looking better than ever but then he lost Pyfer like he was nothing. Bruno might be a momentum fighter. He does well when he feels good. I dont think Tavres is a good rebound fight.
-Green is better everywhere than Gordon except fight iq and that might be enough to get him L here. I feel he was better than Klose and Moises and Trianldo and Dober too actually but lost all of those fights. I f he came here with momentum I'd pick him easily and bet even with these prices but somehow it feels like a split dec loss type of fight for him once again.
-Glenn is the better fighter and should matchup well enough with Giagos to take the w. I'm surprised the odds have tightened. Do people see Glenn outsruck here? He tends to do well with grapplers. Even a monster like Dawson he got a draw against. Dawson would molest Giagos bad.
-I'm going to take a stab at Yahya here with the odds. Montel has problems when taken down if the guy who takes him down is good. Yahya is good on the ground. He is old so who knows but seems Montel is a bit overrated with oddsmakers and public. He hasn't done anything that spectacular since coming to the ufc. Yeah he gets finishes against the lower tier and does fine against the guys he has physical advantages over. But I'm always much more confident in him if he is fighting a striker rather than a grappler.

Went pretty much 0-5 on these but I call them shit picks for a reason

 

[Ronan1001]

Priscila Cachoeira vs. Karine Silva is canceled.
Cachoeira missed weight by 4 pounds. She turns 35 in August.
The two sides were apparently unable to agree on a purse penalty after Cachoeria weighed in 4 pounds heavy.


UFC Vegas 71

https://www.betonline.ag/sportsbook/martial-arts/mma/ufc-vegas-71

https://twitter.com/search?q=#UFCVegas71&src=hashtag_click&f=live

Parlay +108 seems okay:
Montel Jackson
Bobby Green
Iasmin Lucindo

A lot of these other favorites look pretty small at the faceoffs including Tafa

BetOnline props to look at, lines as of Friday:
Blaydes wins by TKO/KO in round 1 +365 (this is +260 elsewhere)
Marshall wins by decision +195
Batgerel wins by TKO/KO in round 2 +775
Glenn/Giagos goes to decision -125
Wells/Semelsberger goes to decision +160
Lucindo wins by decision -105
Bobby Green wins by decision -115
Tavares/Silva goes to decision +115
Tafa wins by TKO/KO +130

"Blaydes strikes behind an intelligent jab and leg kick early in round 1. He uses those range strikes to keep opponents off of him while also giving them things to think about near their head and legs, thereby exposing what Blaydes is truly hunting: the hips. Once an opponent starts to counter strike or backpedal from his volume, they often leave their hips exposed. In an instant, Blaydes exploits the opening and explodes into a single or double-leg takedown. Blaydes’ background is in college wrestling, where he was an NJCAA champion on the mat. Blaydes brings that same style and tenacity into the octagon. Once he gets an opponent down, the round typically ends with him on top, either because the clock hit 0:00 or Blaydes found the finish. Blaydes has incredible top pressure and smoothly advances position, typically looking for side control or mount. Once in position, “Razor” truly earns his nickname and rains heavy elbows down on his opponent. Once he starts, the only way he stops is via finish or the round ending. On paper, Blaydes’ style is the perfect style to combat the immense power threat of Pavlovich. This is because Blaydes has legitimate heavyweight size, threatening enough power to bring caution to a blitz-opponent, and most importantly, elite wrestling to shoot a takedown once the power is blitzed towards him"

Four pounds is very, very much... They understand that, and that's why they couldn't agree.

 

[Ronan1001]

Went pretty much 0-5 on these but I call them shit picks for a reason

Same opinion.