UFC FN 236: Hermansson vs. Pyfer

[The Disasters]

Im not by any means a sharp capper or amazing bettor, to be completely honest guys I usually play small, unless its a time like this when I know the fighter personally and/or trained around them and got to observe camp. And after reading a lot of your guys picks, (thanks for sharing) You have me rethinking some of my parlays. ahhh. I could withdraw them for a small loss... but I digress.

Full disclosure, I have my unit amount at 10$ . I'm in for around 500-600 on this fight, and I have 600$ left that I plan to cash out regardless of the result.

That said, the fighters I have bet big in the beston were Nate Diaz for the first Conner fight, (also hit Diaz and Tate Parlay) that night, I cashed well on Timothy Johnson when he was undervalued as dog in a few fights, including Tybura.

I have gone big on all of hyders last 4-5 fights. I tried to bet 2000$ at +165 in LFA against Robson Jr but my bank blocked it. I was only able to get 200-300 down. I've been betting 200-400 on these last fights, and have been able to get up to $1400 (already withdrew $400)

So if I don't bet anymore and stick to my rule of withdrawing my last 600$, (almost broke it to make another parlay on Robocop) I will walk away up $1000, even on the off chance I lose all my bets.

All of that said, yes I know I am being a bit reckless, at the same time, this is about the most confident I've been in looking at his last 5-6 match ups and trying to put my bias aside.


I do like to go as BIG as I can on Hyde's fights though, and I will continue to do so, because if and when the time comes that he is no longer undefeated, I WANT to lose along with my friend and share in defeat like I have been able to share in his victories.

Seeing him go from unassuming guy working the front desk at the gym, to the amazing coach and martial artist he's become over the last 10 years and see him grow has a person has been awesome.

Good for you for knowing your unit size. There's no shame in any unit size(pause). I'll be rooting for you man!

 

[The Disasters]

I don't do unit betting I never have even prior to moving to Vegas because I am not rich. So let's say I deposit 1000$ onto a website that means my unit size will only be 10$ although I gamble for fun, also gamble what I can afford to lose, if i could only bet 10 per fight wouldnt make it fun for me. you don't know what this guy's unit size is it might only be 1$ or 2$ and people on this board are straight trolls and like to belittle people for not betting as much. People on this board think of this person is betting more money he has to be a better gambler that is straight laughable. If you keep track which I do of people's pre fight bets you will actually see who is "good" at betting and "bad" just because you bet 1k per fight compared to someone who bets 5$ per fight does not equate you to being a better gambler just means you have more disposable income.

He used the term "unit", and I don't know why the size of unit would matter at all since that's exactly the point of using units. I asked because I was wondering if he was just throwing out units like touts do or if he actually had that percentage of his bankroll on that one fight.

Most people shouldn't waste their time on unit betting but that's the language I speak. I wasn't talking shit.

 

[guesswhoseback]

He used the term "unit", and I don't know why the size of unit would matter at all since that's exactly the point of using units. I asked because I was wondering if he was just throwing out units like touts do or if he actually had that percentage of his bankroll on that one fight.

Most people shouldn't waste their time on unit betting but that's the language I speak. I wasn't talking shit.

Oh no my bad man that wasn't directed towards you I just quoted you my bad if you thought it was directed towards you

 

[Rhood]

What's the word on Lookboonmee vs Bruna Brasil?

My gut initially picked Lookboonmee first, but when I looked up Bruna's background and found out what camp shes from I decided to get more opinions.
Bruna comes from the Fighting Nerds gym, which has a really great reputation.
Who wins this match?

 

[guesswhoseback]

What's the word on Lookboonmee vs Bruna Brasil?

My gut initially picked Lookboonmee first, but when I looked up Bruna's background and found out what camp shes from I decided to get more opinions.
Bruna comes from the Fighting Nerds gym, which has a really great reputation.
Who wins this match?

Lookboome by dec

 

[Thesnake101]

What's the word on Lookboonmee vs Bruna Brasil?

My gut initially picked Lookboonmee first, but when I looked up Bruna's background and found out what camp shes from I decided to get more opinions.
Bruna comes from the Fighting Nerds gym, which has a really great reputation.
Who wins this match?

She's mostly a striker so I don't think this matchup is very kind to her.

 

[Oblivian]

I'm going to be the contrarian here and think Amil looks overpriced here.

 

[JC615]

I'm going to be the contrarian here and think Amil looks overpriced here.

Well Garcia did go from +200 to +175 and Hamil from -250 to -225 for what it's worth. (Maybe nothing).

 

[Stat_Collector]

Marcos/Aori
Marcos will earn his price tag, less hittable, better chin. Aori has gotten rocked and dropped too many times to end this undefeated streak.

Goskov/Zak
Goskov over Zak. Goskov is more season and looks more natural and has that killer instinct. Seeing how Zak could not put away Wright, get wobbled by him and win a boring fight with clinch work. Goskov would have put away Wright, and his fight with Volk he landed some decent power shots that backed him up. Goskov has fought more season fighters and finished them, i do see him getting a stoppage in rnd 1-2

Griffen/Wells
Griffen is more fundamentally sound, has decent enough grappling to keep Wells off eventually. Max attacks all body parts, Wells is a head hunter and swings wildly. Seeing Max go to split with Magney should make him the favorite. Easy play here for griffen.

Armen/Rodolfo

Armen over Rodolfo. Armen has good getups, fast movement, and a good counter puncher. Rodolfo isn't like Caio, he's slower than him and doesn't have his speed in neither movement nor takedown speed. He was dropped by Cody Brundage, and his boxing guard gets broken often and hit. Armen scored a reversal on Caio and made it difficult at times to pass his guard. Arman will be a future top 15 fighter in two years. i predict.

Robert/Ihor

Robert will steam roll Ihor by 1st round ko. Ihor lost an amateur fight in 2019 when he had 15 pro fights against a 1-1 guy. He's managed to sneak himself into the ufc with a padded record, but will soon meet his end of contract run. Robert has solid enough boxing, power, and grappling defense to ward off any risk.

 

[Mackronus]

Marcos/Aori
Marcos will earn his price tag, less hittable, better chin. Aori has gotten rocked and dropped too many times to end this undefeated streak.

Goskov/Zak
Goskov over Zak. Goskov is more season and looks more natural and has that killer instinct. Seeing how Zak could not put away Wright, get wobbled by him and win a boring fight with clinch work. Goskov would have put away Wright, and his fight with Volk he landed some decent power shots that backed him up. Goskov has fought more season fighters and finished them, i do see him getting a stoppage in rnd 1-2

Griffen/Wells
Griffen is more fundamentally sound, has decent enough grappling to keep Wells off eventually. Max attacks all body parts, Wells is a head hunter and swings wildly. Seeing Max go to split with Magney should make him the favorite. Easy play here for griffen.

Armen/Rodolfo

Armen over Rodolfo. Armen has good getups, fast movement, and a good counter puncher. Rodolfo isn't like Caio, he's slower than him and doesn't have his speed in neither movement nor takedown speed. He was dropped by Cody Brundage, and his boxing guard gets broken often and hit. Armen scored a reversal on Caio and made it difficult at times to pass his guard. Arman will be a future top 15 fighter in two years. i predict.

Robert/Ihor

Robert will steam roll Ihor by 1st round ko. Ihor lost an amateur fight in 2019 when he had 15 pro fights against a 1-1 guy. He's managed to sneak himself into the ufc with a padded record, but will soon meet his end of contract run. Robert has solid enough boxing, power, and grappling defense to ward off any risk.

As always, appreciate your analysis...

 

[TeamVamos]

I want fade Marcos so bad but Aoriqloeng is mid.... Marcos has an extremely padded record tho

If Aori checks the kicks coming his way he should be able to box Marcos up. The Davey Grant fight was rough to watch. Marcos did a lot of running and not much engaging. Aori's ko loss was flukey and was doing decent before the exchange.

 

[The Disasters]

Armen/Rodolfo

Armen over Rodolfo. Armen has good getups, fast movement, and a good counter puncher. Rodolfo isn't like Caio, he's slower than him and doesn't have his speed in neither movement nor takedown speed. He was dropped by Cody Brundage, and his boxing guard gets broken often and hit. Armen scored a reversal on Caio and made it difficult at times to pass his guard. Arman will be a future top 15 fighter in two years. i predict.

Robert/Ihor

Robert will steam roll Ihor by 1st round ko. Ihor lost an amateur fight in 2019 when he had 15 pro fights against a 1-1 guy. He's managed to sneak himself into the ufc with a padded record, but will soon meet his end of contract run. Robert has solid enough boxing, power, and grappling defense to ward off any risk.

I bet Bryczek by KO, Ko in the 1st, and several ways. I don't understand how Ihor is still around. He's not good, not a smart fighter, has a weak chin, and he came across like a jerk in his one win. I don't understand him being this high on the card either.

The Petrosyan/Vieira fight is another weird one to me. I keep expecting Vieira to show some growth as a martial artist but I think he's actually a one-trick pony(though that one trick is pretty damn good). That being said, I couldn't find a way to bet the fight that made sense with my fair odds.

 

[PuertoRican]

I'm in Vegas today, so someone else needs to make the PBP thread for this event.

 

[Stat_Collector]

I bet Bryczek by KO, Ko in the 1st, and several ways. I don't understand how Ihor is still around. He's not good, not a smart fighter, has a weak chin, and he came across like a jerk in his one win. I don't understand him being this high on the card either.

The Petrosyan/Vieira fight is another weird one to me. I keep expecting Vieira to show some growth as a martial artist but I think he's actually a one-trick pony(though that one trick is pretty damn good). That being said, I couldn't find a way to bet the fight that made sense with my fair odds.

Maybe it's theory but being from Ukraine, Dana may feel pressure to include Ukrainians because of all the Russian fighters under his roster, Russia has a bad look now. They brought at least two other Ukrainian fighters out of nowhere Bondar/Mozharov when they were not deserving or had done anything in regional mma.

Caio fight is being projected on to Rodolfo. That is the only reason I see those odds manifesting.

 

[LBfightlife]

Right on bro ! He’s a fan friendly guy. Hope you made it to the casino in time to get in on the action !! I actually had 4u ITD and I thought I only had 2u. What a great fight. Honestly I was close to pushing all in with my remaining 600 about 15 minutes and I barely stopped myself. Obviously in hindsight I wish I would have pushed in more , his matchups will only get tougher but man what a sweet win!


that body work was beautiful, soccer kick to the body, crushing hands landing clean.

I was feeling bad for Garcia , he suffered a tremendous beating but he put up a hell of a fight.

Good on you man. I hope he keeps winning though and you right alongside him. It's great seeing loyalty like this, makes me want to root for him (and by proxy, you).

If I get to the casino tomorrow (not sure, me and a couple buddies are considering a run but it's like a 2 hour drive) I'm gonna tail you and make a play on him. Either way, GL man.

 

[LBfightlife]

I'm in Vegas today, so someone else needs to make the PBP thread for this event.

What’s PBP?! I’m also in Vegas ! Hyder Amil after party is going down !! Let’s go Niners

 

[ExitLUPin]

I dont get the rationale of playing Rodolfo ML at evens when his sub line is +180... He is not getting a knockout and Petrosyan loves giving his back. Surviving for 3 rounds against Borralho compared to Rodolfo is entirely different. Rodolfo gasses bad too and its unlikely he looks better more its extended. If youre playing Rodolfo arent you almost guaranteeting a sub?

As expected. Rodolfo ML at evens when his sub line was +180 to +200 was one of the strangest bets I've seen for this card. And a bunch were on it.

Why play Rodolfo -110, -120 when there's that discrepancy with his sub line? He is not KOing Petro. How does a Rodolfo decision win look like? It wouldnt be on feet for extended periods so Petro survives several minutes of mat time? Petro who gives his back up to everyone against one of best BJJ guys in MMA? Why because he survived against Borralho who is never close to grappler Rodolfo is....

 

[Stat_Collector]

Marcos/Aori
Marcos will earn his price tag, less hittable, better chin. Aori has gotten rocked and dropped too many times to end this undefeated streak.

Goskov/Zak
Goskov over Zak. Goskov is more season and looks more natural and has that killer instinct. Seeing how Zak could not put away Wright, get wobbled by him and win a boring fight with clinch work. Goskov would have put away Wright, and his fight with Volk he landed some decent power shots that backed him up. Goskov has fought more season fighters and finished them, i do see him getting a stoppage in rnd 1-2

Griffen/Wells
Griffen is more fundamentally sound, has decent enough grappling to keep Wells off eventually. Max attacks all body parts, Wells is a head hunter and swings wildly. Seeing Max go to split with Magney should make him the favorite. Easy play here for griffen.

Armen/Rodolfo

Armen over Rodolfo. Armen has good getups, fast movement, and a good counter puncher. Rodolfo isn't like Caio, he's slower than him and doesn't have his speed in neither movement nor takedown speed. He was dropped by Cody Brundage, and his boxing guard gets broken often and hit. Armen scored a reversal on Caio and made it difficult at times to pass his guard. Arman will be a future top 15 fighter in two years. i predict.

Robert/Ihor

Robert will steam roll Ihor by 1st round ko. Ihor lost an amateur fight in 2019 when he had 15 pro fights against a 1-1 guy. He's managed to sneak himself into the ufc with a padded record, but will soon meet his end of contract run. Robert has solid enough boxing, power, and grappling defense to ward off any risk.

3-2

experience late tape fatigue, lazy taped the last two fights, need to learn to pace myself and not try to crunch taping fights all in one day. Next week i think i’ll be sharper. pre bias opinion hurt and overated Arman’s grappling defense.