UFC FN 236: Hermansson vs. Pyfer

[PuertoRican]

I like Rodolfo Vieira in this match-up, especially at -115.

I'll have a few hundred on him pre-fight, and then live bet the fight accordingly.

If you are the Petrosyan side, I think it's best to live bet him after Round 1, as R1 is when Vieira is at his best and he'll likely win this round more often than not, and you'll get a better price on Petrosyan after R1 anyway. Also, waiting a few minutes to live bet Petrosyan also means you can avoid losing a pre-fight bet on him.

 

[Marko Atanasovik]

-45

All In (55) - Dan Ige, Bolaji Oki, Jeremiah Wells.

Target 214.

 

[Oblivian]

Am I missing something on Johnson/Flowers? Johnson is a pretty big step up for Flowers and a big step down for Johnson.

 

[Thesnake101]

Am I missing something on Johnson/Flowers? Johnson is a pretty big step up for Flowers and a big step down for Johnson.

Boils down to Michael's chin. Not touching it after seeing him get absolutely iced by Diego Ferreira.

 

[Spath]

Boils down to Michael's chin. Not touching it after seeing him get absolutely iced by Diego Ferreira.

I don’t think anyone should touch MJs fights. One day he can beat pretty much anyone and one day Darren Elkins pretzels him.

 

[Don Sharpe]

I originally posted this for UFC Sao Paolo but the fight was cancelled last minute. I am siding with the same pick.

Rodolfo Vieira (9-2) Vs Armen Petrosyan (9-2)

The UFC returns to São Paulo after 5 years with an excellent fight night card.

Kicking off the main card is a classic showdown between a grappler and a striker.

Both fighters boast identical records and are close in age.

Rodolfo is a blackbelt ace and 8 of his 9 wins have come via submission.

On the other hand, Armen is a highly skilled striker, and he clearly has the advantage in terms of height and size.

My prediction is for Rodolfo to look to take this to the ground very early.

I think he will get the takedown and eventually be able to find a submission.

Pick: Rodolfo Vieira ML (-120)

 

[LBfightlife]

Isn't there a rule or statistic where full camp fighters have the upper hand over short notice fighters?

This card has changed so many times that I feel like I have to give the full camp fighters a slight edge.

No rules but it's usually the case that the full camp guy will be in better shape and more prepared.

That said, never forget when Nate Diaz went from the couch and drinking tequila shots and choked out McGregor as a +400 dog on 11 days notice. I came up 50 Units on that fight, was there live and got to train with Nate a bit when he came to El Nino in SF.

I don't think that will happen in this fight though. =D

Added -
10u - Hyder Amil: Scorecards = No Action ( -175)
Hyder Amil Wins by Submission (+1200)
2u - Hyder Amil Wins Inside Distance (+300)
.5u - Hyder Amil: Hyder Amil in Round 3 (+1400)
.5u - Hyder Amil in Round 2 (+850)

 

[Broe.]

Boils down to Michael's chin. Not touching it after seeing him get absolutely iced by Diego Ferreira.

Yeah but Diego Ferreira is a good fighter...

 

[dwightschrute111]

Good recent interview on Hyders thoughts on Garcia and his training camp.

Key Takeaways -
1) this is the best he's ever felt in camp and the most rest and least amount of stress he's had. I can for sure attest to that due to a number of factors
2) He was training a lot of wrestling for Shylan Nerdembeke


I'll tell you this he wants to finish him one way or the other. Against Melsik, we knew his biggest threat was his striking. So the plan was to demonstrate well rounded MMA and not just stand and bang for the fans or go terminator mode into a war, but test his chin and then take what's given.

Once the lines come out on my two bookies for ITD and Hyder by submission, I will be laying some juice on those but my main investment will be the straight bet, or try to find something that's scorecards = no action.

Another bet I just made was a 6u Parlay - on hyder and 49's moneyline - Mybookie was +175 as of this time of writing.

Going to read the rest of the replies but thinking of doing another 2 leg parlay with Hyder and Robocop. I laid another small 1-2u parlay (cant remember) on hyder and Michael Johnson.

Dont know a lot about Hyder but Nakamura dominated Garcia on the ground for 3 rounds but couldn't get a sub finish, Hyder decision seems best bet imo

 

[MidgardSerpent]

Boils down to Michael's chin. Not touching it after seeing him get absolutely iced by Diego Ferreira.

Yeah but Diego Ferreira is a good fighter...

I don't think his chin is really the problem. Three ko losses on his record, Emmett and JG, two of the biggest hitters you can face at those weightclasses. I think he won the first round against Ferreira, then got ko'd by an overhand, those don't tend to be love taps. But he is obviously the poster child of a flakey fighter. 21-19 record is craaazy for an active UFC fighter. So chaotic, he one-shotted DP, he thoroughly dominated a prime Barboza, and the only person who was able to disrupt Ferguson's massive win streak ( I think Tony broke his hand early though), but basically manages to lose half of his fights.

 

[The Disasters]

No rules but it's usually the case that the full camp guy will be in better shape and more prepared.

That said, never forget when Nate Diaz went from the couch and drinking tequila shots and choked out McGregor as a +400 dog on 11 days notice. I came up 50 Units on that fight, was there live and got to train with Nate a bit when he came to El Nino in SF.

I don't think that will happen in this fight though. =D

Added -
10u - Hyder Amil: Scorecards = No Action ( -175)
Hyder Amil Wins by Submission (+1200)
2u - Hyder Amil Wins Inside Distance (+300)
.5u - Hyder Amil: Hyder Amil in Round 3 (+1400)
.5u - Hyder Amil in Round 2 (+850)

If you're using a "unit" as 1% of your bankroll like it usually means, are you really saying you have well over half your bankroll on this one fight? Please be careful if you're really betting that much on one event.

 

[Psychojoe86]

I’m always concerned for Pyfer. He is good but just screams overrated. And rushing into hermanson is a pretty quick boost for him.

Hermanson isn’t that easy to ko. And he could outwork Pyfer in a drawn out battle. I also don’t see Pyfer beating hermanson on the ground, Jack is way more skilled and experienced there.

And yet, Pyfer has that IT factor and joker does not, lol

 

[guesswhoseback]

If you're using a "unit" as 1% of your bankroll like it usually means, are you really saying you have well over half your bankroll on this one fight? Please be careful if you're really betting that much on one event.

I don't do unit betting I never have even prior to moving to Vegas because I am not rich. So let's say I deposit 1000$ onto a website that means my unit size will only be 10$ although I gamble for fun, also gamble what I can afford to lose, if i could only bet 10 per fight wouldnt make it fun for me. you don't know what this guy's unit size is it might only be 1$ or 2$ and people on this board are straight trolls and like to belittle people for not betting as much. People on this board think of this person is betting more money he has to be a better gambler that is straight laughable. If you keep track which I do of people's pre fight bets you will actually see who is "good" at betting and "bad" just because you bet 1k per fight compared to someone who bets 5$ per fight does not equate you to being a better gambler just means you have more disposable income.

 

[Thesnake101]

Yeah but Diego Ferreira is a good fighter...

He was also 38 and never really been a power puncher, more of a pressure fighter.

I don't think his chin is really the problem. Three ko losses on his record, Emmett and JG, two of the biggest hitters you can face at those weightclasses. I think he won the first round against Ferreira, then got ko'd by an overhand, those don't tend to be love taps. But he is obviously the poster child of a flakey fighter. 21-19 record is craaazy for an active UFC fighter. So chaotic, he one-shotted DP, he thoroughly dominated a prime Barboza, and the only person who was able to disrupt Ferguson's massive win streak ( I think Tony broke his hand early though), but basically manages to lose half of his fights.

Keep in mind he's also 37, and turning 38 later this year. If there were ever a moment for his chin to start fading, it's now.

He's got the speed to pick Flowers apart, but I wouldn't recommend anyone touching him anymore. He's always been a guy capable of snatching defeat from the jaws of victory, and it's only going to get worse the older he gets.

 

[LBfightlife]

Am I missing something on Johnson/Flowers? Johnson is a pretty big step up for Flowers and a big step down for Johnson.

Johnson is 37 years old and just got flatlined his last time out, toes curled and all stiff as a board. If it's ever happened to you or you have had it happen to someone you know, it can change a guy. Especially when it comes to fighting

 

[ExitLUPin]

I dont get the rationale of playing Rodolfo ML at evens when his sub line is +180... He is not getting a knockout and Petrosyan loves giving his back. Surviving for 3 rounds against Borralho compared to Rodolfo is entirely different. Rodolfo gasses bad too and its unlikely he looks better more its extended. If youre playing Rodolfo arent you almost guaranteeting a sub?

 

[ExitLUPin]

I want fade Marcos so bad but Aoriqloeng is mid.... Marcos has an extremely padded record tho

 

[LBfightlife]

If you're using a "unit" as 1% of your bankroll like it usually means, are you really saying you have well over half your bankroll on this one fight? Please be careful if you're really betting that much on one event.

Im not by any means a sharp capper or amazing bettor, to be completely honest guys I usually play small, unless its a time like this when I know the fighter personally and/or trained around them and got to observe camp. And after reading a lot of your guys picks, (thanks for sharing) You have me rethinking some of my parlays. ahhh. I could withdraw them for a small loss... but I digress.

Full disclosure, I have my unit amount at 10$ . I'm in for around 500-600 on this fight, and I have 600$ left that I plan to cash out regardless of the result.

That said, the fighters I have bet big in the beston were Nate Diaz for the first Conner fight, (also hit Diaz and Tate Parlay) that night, I cashed well on Timothy Johnson when he was undervalued as dog in a few fights, including Tybura.

I have gone big on all of hyders last 4-5 fights. I tried to bet 2000$ at +165 in LFA against Robson Jr but my bank blocked it. I was only able to get 200-300 down. I've been betting 200-400 on these last fights, and have been able to get up to $1400 (already withdrew $400)

So if I don't bet anymore and stick to my rule of withdrawing my last 600$, (almost broke it to make another parlay on Robocop) I will walk away up $1000, even on the off chance I lose all my bets.

All of that said, yes I know I am being a bit reckless, at the same time, this is about the most confident I've been in looking at his last 5-6 match ups and trying to put my bias aside.


I do like to go as BIG as I can on Hyde's fights though, and I will continue to do so, because if and when the time comes that he is no longer undefeated, I WANT to lose along with my friend and share in defeat like I have been able to share in his victories.

Seeing him go from unassuming guy working the front desk at the gym, to the amazing coach and martial artist he's become over the last 10 years and see him grow has a person has been awesome.

 

[JC615]

Im not by any means a sharp capper or amazing bettor, to be completely honest guys I usually play small, unless its a time like this when I know the fighter personally and/or trained around them and got to observe camp. And after reading a lot of your guys picks, (thanks for sharing) You have me rethinking some of my parlays. ahhh. I could withdraw them for a small loss... but I digress.

Full disclosure, I have my unit amount at 10$ . I'm in for around 500-600 on this fight, and I have 600$ left that I plan to cash out regardless of the result.

That said, the fighters I have bet big in the beston were Nate Diaz for the first Conner fight, (also hit Diaz and Tate Parlay) that night, I cashed well on Timothy Johnson when he was undervalued as dog in a few fights, including Tybura.

I have gone big on all of hyders last 4-5 fights. I tried to bet 2000$ at +165 in LFA against Robson Jr but my bank blocked it. I was only able to get 200-300 down. I've been betting 200-400 on these last fights, and have been able to get up to $1400 (already withdrew $400)

So if I don't bet anymore and stick to my rule of withdrawing my last 600$, (almost broke it to make another parlay on Robocop) I will walk away up $1000, even on the off chance I lose all my bets.

All of that said, yes I know I am being a bit reckless, at the same time, this is about the most confident I've been in looking at his last 5-6 match ups and trying to put my bias aside.


I do like to go as BIG as I can on Hyde's fights though, and I will continue to do so, because if and when the time comes that he is no longer undefeated, I WANT to lose along with my friend and share in defeat like I have been able to share in his victories.

Seeing him go from unassuming guy working the front desk at the gym, to the amazing coach and martial artist he's become over the last 10 years and see him grow has a person has been awesome.

This is awesome. His sub line is +1400 by the way.

 

[mkess101]

Im not by any means a sharp capper or amazing bettor, to be completely honest guys I usually play small, unless its a time like this when I know the fighter personally and/or trained around them and got to observe camp. And after reading a lot of your guys picks, (thanks for sharing) You have me rethinking some of my parlays. ahhh. I could withdraw them for a small loss... but I digress.

Full disclosure, I have my unit amount at 10$ . I'm in for around 500-600 on this fight, and I have 600$ left that I plan to cash out regardless of the result.

That said, the fighters I have bet big in the beston were Nate Diaz for the first Conner fight, (also hit Diaz and Tate Parlay) that night, I cashed well on Timothy Johnson when he was undervalued as dog in a few fights, including Tybura.

I have gone big on all of hyders last 4-5 fights. I tried to bet 2000$ at +165 in LFA against Robson Jr but my bank blocked it. I was only able to get 200-300 down. I've been betting 200-400 on these last fights, and have been able to get up to $1400 (already withdrew $400)

So if I don't bet anymore and stick to my rule of withdrawing my last 600$, (almost broke it to make another parlay on Robocop) I will walk away up $1000, even on the off chance I lose all my bets.

All of that said, yes I know I am being a bit reckless, at the same time, this is about the most confident I've been in looking at his last 5-6 match ups and trying to put my bias aside.

I do like to go as BIG as I can on Hyde's fights though, and I will continue to do so, because if and when the time comes that he is no longer undefeated, I WANT to lose along with my friend and share in defeat like I have been able to share in his victories.

Seeing him go from unassuming guy working the front desk at the gym, to the amazing coach and martial artist he's become over the last 10 years and see him grow has a person has been awesome.

Good on you man. I hope he keeps winning though and you right alongside him. It's great seeing loyalty like this, makes me want to root for him (and by proxy, you).

If I get to the casino tomorrow (not sure, me and a couple buddies are considering a run but it's like a 2 hour drive) I'm gonna tail you and make a play on him. Either way, GL man.