UFC FN 236: Hermansson vs. Pyfer

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Main Card (ESPN+)
MiddleweightJack Hermanssonvs.Joe Pyfer
FeatherweightDan Igevs.Andre Fili
Middleweight Robert Bryczek vs. Ihor PotieriaRobert Bryczekvs.Ihor Potieria
MiddleweightBrad Tavaresvs.Gregory Rodrigues
LightweightMichael Johnsonvs.Darrius Flowers
MiddleweightRodolfo Vieiravs.Armen Petrosyan
Preliminary Card (ESPN+)
WelterweightTrevin Gilesvs.Carlos Prates
LightweightBolaji Okivs.Timothy Cuamba
Women's StrawweightLoma Lookboonmeevs.Bruna Brasil
Light HeavyweightDevin Clarkvs.Marcin Prachnio
WelterweightMax Griffinvs.Jeremiah Wells
Light HeavyweightZac Paugavs.Bogdan Guskov
FeatherweightFernie Garciavs.Hyder Amil
BantamweightDaniel Marcosvs.Aori Qileng
 
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  • Ihor Potieria is supposedly dropping from 205 to 185 on short notice (7 days).
  • Darrius Flowers is dropping from 170 to 155. He has the frame of a 155er, so it's a good move.
  • Damir Hadzovic is returning from a 1.5 year layoff.
  • Robert Bryczek and Marcin Prachnio trained together for this fight camp.
  • Andre Fili is taking this fight on short notice (22 days).
 
  • Ihor Potieria is supposedly dropping from 205 to 185 on short notice (7 days).
  • Darrius Flowers is dropping from 170 to 155. He has the frame of a 155er, so it's a good move.
  • Damir Hadzovic is returning from a 1.5 year layoff.
  • Robert Bryczek and Marcin Prachnio trained together for this fight camp.
  • Andre Fili is taking this fight on short notice (22 days).
Melsik Baghdasaryan is out and Fernie Garcia is stepping in on short notice and up in weight.
 
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I have an old bet since long of 2.5U on Gregory Rodrigues @-220. I thought I would beat some line movement but its still virtually the same.
Rodrigues biggest weakness is his chin, but Tavares doesn't have any power these days so he should be fine. I feel that Rodrigues is better everywhere (outside of chin). He should win on the feet and might even be able to score a takedown.
 
I'm going big on Amil. 30 Units so far in fact. I had a nice parlay going with Neil Magney and Melsek Bahagra-whatever his name is, was able to partially cash out before the bookies got wind but I digress. I also had a parlay with Dober but we saw how that went.

Not only going big on The Hurrricane because I know him personally and he's a good friend (confirmed bias), coach and former training partner. I've seen his career and been to most of his fights and been around camp. He had to go through hell before he even stepped in the cage in LFA, and had to overcome a lot of stuff to get here to the UFC. He's in a really good place mentally and was ready for a 3 round war with a much tougher opponent and better everywhere than Garcia.

Personally I felt he would have beaten Shylan Nerdembeke and Melsik , they both pulled out undisclosed. I don't think it's a coincidence, you saw Hyders last fight in DWCS, many fighters already successful in the UFC would have had major problems with that wrestling and pace. The pressure he puts on opponents is hard to deal with, and when starts putting them together and lands clean, its lights out.

Hyde will win this fight how he wants, and I believe will be the first to finish Garcia as a pro. The only problem for me right now is both mybookie and Bovada don't have props available, as of yet for the fight. I saw an over/under 2.5 on Bovada but that's it..

I would like to go with Hyder ITD and by Submission if I could get the lines on the bookies. I might tail the above pick on Robocop and doing some more digging and make a couple parlays.

This is going to be his own personal Alamo for the Texan here, he's outclassed, outgunned and as far as I see he, has no way out.
 
I'm going big on Amil. 30 Units so far in fact. I had a nice parlay going with Neil Magney and Melsek Bahagra-whatever his name is, was able to partially cash out before the bookies got wind but I digress. I also had a parlay with Dober but we saw how that went.

Not only going big on The Hurrricane because I know him personally and he's a good friend (confirmed bias), coach and former training partner. I've seen his career and been to most of his fights and been around camp. He had to go through hell before he even stepped in the cage in LFA, and had to overcome a lot of stuff to get here to the UFC. He's in a really good place mentally and was ready for a 3 round war with a much tougher opponent and better everywhere than Garcia.

Personally I felt he would have beaten Shylan Nerdembeke and Melsik , they both pulled out undisclosed. I don't think it's a coincidence, you saw Hyders last fight in DWCS, many fighters already successful in the UFC would have had major problems with that wrestling and pace. The pressure he puts on opponents is hard to deal with, and when starts putting them together and lands clean, its lights out.

Hyde will win this fight how he wants, and I believe will be the first to finish Garcia as a pro. The only problem for me right now is both mybookie and Bovada don't have props available, as of yet for the fight. I saw an over/under 2.5 on Bovada but that's it..

I would like to go with Hyder ITD and by Submission if I could get the lines on the bookies. I might tail the above pick on Robocop and doing some more digging and make a couple parlays.

This is going to be his own personal Alamo for the Texan here, he's outclassed, outgunned and as far as I see he, has no way out.
Always interesting to hear from people with first hand experience training with a fighter.
I'm also pretty high on Amil and thinks he should win this. Not sure I like the odds though. I'm gonna do some more tape on Amil. If I knew he would wrestle I would be more confident in a play.
 
  • Ihor Potieria is supposedly dropping from 205 to 185 on short notice (7 days).
  • Darrius Flowers is dropping from 170 to 155. He has the frame of a 155er, so it's a good move.
  • Damir Hadzovic is returning from a 1.5 year layoff.
  • Robert Bryczek and Marcin Prachnio trained together for this fight camp.
  • Andre Fili is taking this fight on short notice (22 days).
Thank you.

Fili did have a bandage on his arm in a recent podcast episode, but according to himself, it’s not an injury; it’s a new tattoo. Just sharing.
 
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Big step up for Pyfer. Hermansson been at world class level for years and been in world class training camps. Pyfer

Meers and AlHassan to Jack is big. I'm getting +230 here, willing to pay to see if Joe is legit
 
Big step up for Pyfer. Hermansson been at world class level for years and been in world class training camps. Pyfer

Meers and AlHassan to Jack is big. I'm getting +230 here, willing to pay to see if Joe is legit
I'm thinking of playing Jack too now, the number is almost a no brainer I feel, just worried about the first 2 rounds. Pyfer hits hard and Jack is chinny and has bad reactions to big shots. Might be a live bet for me if it goes past 1 to see how Jack is doing.
 
I don't understand how Rodolfo is favored here.
The crazy thing is that the majority of people are betting on him. Imo he is 1st round or bust and I think Petrosyan has good getups and good sub defence. I am pretty big on Petrosyan. We will see I guess.
 
36% tdd in small cage vs monster grappler, why shouldn't veira be the prebet side? I don't think giving up his back to try and get up goes well here.
fall down 7 times, stand up 8. petrosyan has been fighting monsters (borralho and robocop) and holding his own just fine against them.

viera has looked bad in pretty much all of his fights except piechota. even safarov hurt him. the curtis performance was embarrassing.

i just can't see viera winning this fight if it goes past round 1.
 
Pyfer is pretty unproven. Like yeah who he beat, Amedavski and GM3?

...but something about the guy just gives me vibes that the run doesnt stop here. I specifically like that he had smarts to level change and take Razak down when the knock out didnt come. And the narrative is that this is a ko kind of guy.

I like Joe to take the next step and tko the very hittable Hermansson in rds 1-2.
 
Pyfer is pretty unproven. Like yeah who he beat, Amedavski and GM3?

...but something about the guy just gives me vibes that the run doesnt stop here. I specifically like that he had smarts to level change and take Razak down when the knock out didnt come. And the narrative is that this is a ko kind of guy.

I like Joe to take the next step and tko the very hittable Hermansson in rds 1-2.
I have the same feeling, he has that confidence and swagger that makes me believe he should get past Hermansson. However, I don't see the value in Pyfer at these odds, but I do think he wins.
 
The last 2 times Jack was in with guys that have true one shot stopping power he was finished pretty early, for whatever that's worth.
 
Always interesting to hear from people with first hand experience training with a fighter.
I'm also pretty high on Amil and thinks he should win this. Not sure I like the odds though. I'm gonna do some more tape on Amil. If I knew he would wrestle I would be more confident in a play.

Good recent interview on Hyders thoughts on Garcia and his training camp.

Key Takeaways -
1) this is the best he's ever felt in camp and the most rest and least amount of stress he's had. I can for sure attest to that due to a number of factors
2) He was training a lot of wrestling for Shylan Nerdembeke


I'll tell you this he wants to finish him one way or the other. Against Melsik, we knew his biggest threat was his striking. So the plan was to demonstrate well rounded MMA and not just stand and bang for the fans or go terminator mode into a war, but test his chin and then take what's given.

Once the lines come out on my two bookies for ITD and Hyder by submission, I will be laying some juice on those but my main investment will be the straight bet, or try to find something that's scorecards = no action.

Another bet I just made was a 6u Parlay - on hyder and 49's moneyline - Mybookie was +175 as of this time of writing.

Going to read the rest of the replies but thinking of doing another 2 leg parlay with Hyder and Robocop. I laid another small 1-2u parlay (cant remember) on hyder and Michael Johnson.
 
fall down 7 times, stand up 8. petrosyan has been fighting monsters (borralho and robocop) and holding his own just fine against them.

viera has looked bad in pretty much all of his fights except piechota. even safarov hurt him. the curtis performance was embarrassing.

i just can't see viera winning this fight if it goes past round 1.
Tailed you on Petrosyan w Hyder amil - 3u at +210
 
Isn't there a rule or statistic where full camp fighters have the upper hand over short notice fighters?

This card has changed so many times that I feel like I have to give the full camp fighters a slight edge.
 
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