This is another card where I think the odds, for the most part, are pretty accurate. Note, that doesn't mean I don't think there will be upsets, just that the probabilities are accurate. There were a few that were a little off imo. I'll bet some of them and pass on others.
Demopoulos/Frey: I think you have one fighter in Frey who is on the downside of her career, and another in Demopoulos who hasn't really had much of a career but has low mileage. Frey doesn't do anything once she's on top, and she's definitely not dangerous, meanwhile Demopoulos does have good subs at least. I think this is much closer to a coin-flip.
Kelleher/Bautista: I like Bautista and think he has potential, especially if he can clean up his wrestling, but if it's anything near as bad as it's been previously, Kelleher should be able to get easy takedowns. He's also pretty savvy and experienced so he knows how to fight to give himself the best chance to win. I made this one -120 for Bautista. I think Kelleher has a chance at a guillotine or winning a wrestling-heavy decision.
Ulberg/Nchukwi: I hate watching Ulberg fight but he fights smart(usually). He screwed up against Nzechukwu and then fixed the problem in his next, which is something I like to see. Granted he went too far and it was a really awful fight, but he fought safe, dominated, and made sure he wasn't going to gas or get knocked out. He uses his movement well and can mix wrestling and striking. Very close fight imo but I think the odds should be flipped.
Curtis/Vieira: Another one where I think the odds should be flipped. I trust Vieira more, especially after he was embarrassed and then rebounded. He's been to the apex in his sport and despite his experience, he's only 32 and I think he'll keep improving for a few more years. I know how hard it was to transition to just training MMA and bjj as opposed to wrestling, and I'm just talking about training. The energy output of the various disciplines is completely different and I think he's figuring it out. In the fight against Rodriguez he gassed himself and made the typical bjj mistake of waiting for the tap rather than attacking the submission until the ref pulls you off.
Moises/Giagos: Talent-wise Moises is the class of this fight, but he continually fights to the level of his opponent. Give him a strong opponent and he fights like he's possessed, but give him someone he should beat and he coasts. I still think he's the better fighter, and he should win this, but wrestling is great at neutralizing bjj and I think this fight is much closer than the odds suggest.
Maness/Nurmagomedov: Yes, Umar should be chalk, no, no fighter int eh UFC should ever be -1200. Sure, if the books want to make sure nobody bets him, that makes sense, and the spread is ridiculous, but Umar is far from a finished product and that number surprises me. I've bet against Maness in each fight I think and he still looks terrible to me. I think he's only won 1 round out of the 7 he's fought, but somehow he's won them all. There's something to be said for that kind of surviveability.
Magny/Rakhmonov: This looks like one of those fights where the crafty old veteran is being completely overlooked. Think Caceras vs. anyone. I hate Magny's style but he always comes in with a plan and executes it. His movement is good and he's good at surviving. I'm a huge Rakhmonov fan but he's still pretty raw in terms of competing at this level. He hasn't shown much weakness to this point but I think he's closer to 70% to win here rather than 80%. Magny could always fall off a cliff, and I thought he lost his last one, but I still think the odds are too wide.
