UFC Fight Night: Tsarukyan vs. Gamrot

I'm seriously considering betting on Josh Parisian so help me god. Baudot can't get off the cage for shit, can't work off the bottom for shit and is really small. I think any even regional standard decent sized HW with a modicum of fight IQ can see that if you just hang off him on the cage for the whole fight you'll win.
 
Someone explain me why Bautista is the favorite here? He looked awful in his last fight against regional level guy that came in short notice.
 
I mean, after that Rosa fight, yeah, he should be favored over bottom of the barrel opponents like the guy he's fighting here.

Didn't Rosa take that one at extremely short notice?
 
Umar is a very good fighter but not a perfect one. He can get lackadaisical defensively and is not effortlessly taking his opponents down. Maness has good TD defense and can get back to his feet if he is taken down. I don't see Maness winning unless he knocks Umar out but that is a real possibility as he is much better on the feet and does knock opponents out.

The opening line which priced Maness at +375 was accurate anything higher than that is value. If this were Said Nurmagomedov then +650 would be correct but for Umar Nurmagomedov that is very overpriced.

I was thining the same thing. I fully expect Umar to win but that opening line was right for me.
 
Tsarukyan and Gamrot is a fight I will play very carefully via live betting.

Tsarukyan always looks great and should be the favorite, but Gamrot is still improving and sometimes fights to the level of his opponents, imo. I think he'll go hard in every round, as he knows what type of opponent he's up against, and the types of fights he'll get if he wins this fight.

Will Gamrot at his best be enough to beat Tsarukyan? No idea, but I don't feel comfortable betting Tsarukyan at -255 like some other people are.
 
Someone explain me why Bautista is the favorite here? He looked awful in his last fight against regional level guy that came in short notice.
Because Kelleher is 35 years old with 37 pro fights. It some point he will probably fall off the cliff age wise and go on a 4 or 5 fight losing skid. I don't know anything about his oppenent so I'm just making a general observation here.
 
Parisian @ even odds over Baudot yes please

I'll play Durden at dog odds, surprised Buys is now the favourite, I don't get that...

Doesn't look like I'm touching anything else. Would love to get in on Shavkat, but -400... my god. Magny didn't look great last fight, but I wouldn't be totally shocked if he won a Magny-style decision.
 
Parisian @ even odds over Baudot yes please

I'll play Durden at dog odds, surprised Buys is now the favourite, I don't get that...

Doesn't look like I'm touching anything else. Would love to get in on Shavkat, but -400... my god. Magny didn't look great last fight, but I wouldn't be totally shocked if he won a Magny-style decision.
I think Jp looked decent against montel, showed heart and tenacity, looks more flexible and in better conditioning grappling wise. Cody is decent too, but i think jp taps him, he's better bjj grappler, cody has gotten subbed several times before, i think Jp can tap him 1-2 rounds.
 
Someone explain me why Bautista is the favorite here? He looked awful in his last fight against regional level guy that came in short notice.
Jay Perrin isn't that bad. He has a win against a active bellator fighter Johnny Campell who beat Henry Corales. A lot of his loses are decision loses and two of them were split decision early in his career.

Mario beat miles johns who i think would beat Kellerher . Mario would beat most of Kellerhers' resume except maybe Ode Osbourne , that fight would be close because the way they match up stylistically.
 
Jay Perrin isn't that bad. He has a win against a active bellator fighter Johnny Campell who beat Henry Corales. A lot of his loses are decision loses and two of them were split decision early in his career.

Mario beat miles johns who i think would beat Kellerher . Mario would beat most of Kellerhers' resume except maybe Ode Osbourne , that fight would be close because the way they match up stylistically.

It's worth noting that Corrales dropped to 135 for that fight and hasn't fought at that class since. Cupcakes is still a solid fighter but that fight made him look somewhat better than he is. Levi Mowles dominated him in his next one.
 
I think Jp looked decent against montel, showed heart and tenacity, looks more flexible and in better conditioning grappling wise. Cody is decent too, but i think jp taps him, he's better bjj grappler, cody has gotten subbed several times before, i think Jp can tap him 1-2 rounds.
Same thoughts here, can't trust a guy like Cody to not gas and give up a sub against JP.

Powerful guys have proven to be his kryptonite, but I think Buys does decent against most grapplers.
Parisian @ even odds over Baudot yes please
Yeah, that line baffles me. Baudot is the type of guy Parisian should finish. Might hit his KO prop there.
 
It's worth noting that Corrales dropped to 135 for that fight and hasn't fought at that class since. Cupcakes is still a solid fighter but that fight made him look somewhat better than he is. Levi Mowles dominated him in his next one.
Levi's good even he lost to MIles Johns. Shows that Mario's win on miles johns aged beautifully since he beat both Adrian Yanez and Levi. Mario's definitely a future top 15 or top 25 gate keeper in his division. i think he is in his prime years, Kellerher will start to fade soon, he's been finished 7x (subs and ko). Mario is athletic enough and young enough to beat him soundly. I would fade him if he was a blue belt or lower.
 
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