UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs. Emmett

[XociDe]

What about what 34 year old oliveira did?

at over -300 Holland basically has to run through him easily. No way would I trust him at these prices.

34 isn't that old and Oliveira looked great. He was always a very hot/cold fighter and he came out with a point to prove. I don't think anyone expected him to fight like that. It's not like he beat the chit out of Holland in round one though, he just looked a lot better than expected. Then got KO'd.

Tim Means fights nothing like that so it doesn't really make sense to try and compare the two fights.

Holland is not a bad grappler and has pretty solid TDD. He is much stronger and more explosive so I'll be completely shocked if Means can grapplefuck him for 3 rounds. If Means tries throwing 500 jabs like usual, he's going to eat straight rights all night, or however long his chin holds up, which probably won't be very long.

I think it's quite likely that Holland runs through him. If it was 5 years ago, maybe not.

 

[Bakayoko]

I was high on Hawes against Winn when they were schedulded the first time and now the odds on Hawes are better.It's a bad matchup for Winn,Hawes is a decent wrestler,much better on the feet with the reach advantage.Everybody will point out that Hawes could gas,but Winn also had problems with the cardio and he ain't a finisher.Very very small path to victory for Winn.

 

[Captain Chesapeake]

34 isn't that old and Oliveira looked great. He was always a very hot/cold fighter and he came out with a point to prove. I don't think anyone expected him to fight like that. It's not like he beat the chit out of Holland in round one though, he just looked a lot better than expected. Then got KO'd.

Tim Means fights nothing like that so it doesn't really make sense to try and compare the two fights.

Holland is not a bad grappler and has pretty solid TDD. He is much stronger and more explosive so I'll be completely shocked if Means can grapplefuck him for 3 rounds. If Means tries throwing 500 jabs like usual, he's going to eat straight rights all night, or however long his chin holds up, which probably won't be very long.

I think it's quite likely that Holland runs through him. If it was 5 years ago, maybe not.

He was -300 against cowboy and almost got knocked out in the first round.

means isn’t a big hitter either and his chin is practically gone but Holland -300 is wide

 

[Stat_Collector]

Who wants to tail me on that Gloria ko 600+ prop ?

She is a former muay thai brazilian amatuer champ and packs quite a punch.

Maria Oliveira's opponent ratings is off the charts weak, couldn't last a round with Marina, she is getting finished. She also throws lots of loopy punches tailor made to get caught and koed.

 

[GoldenWolf87]

Who wants to tail me on that Gloria ko 600+ prop ?

She is a former muay thai brazilian amatuer champ and packs quite a punch.

Maria Oliveira's opponent ratings is off the charts weak, couldn't last a round with Marina, she is getting finished. She also throws lots of loopy punches tailor made to get caught and koed.


View attachment 927912

I might go with a sightly similar bet but a small one with the ITD prop.
My women MMA betting had been a mix this year.

But i dont hate that +600 for the Ko. And maybe fight time as well on FD.

 

[Stat_Collector]

I might go with a sightly similar bet but a small one with the ITD prop.
My women MMA betting had been a mix this year.

But i dont hate that +600 for the Ko. And maybe fight time as well on FD.

i wouldn't worry about gloria dropping the ball here, the question is rather maria can survive 3 rounds, the technique for gloria is fundamentally 10x a lot better.

I even included her on tapology, i dont pick those without caution. Maria loses to every decent opponent she faces, and got finished 3 times. Her only decent win was against a fellow can crusher with a padded record.


compare boxing alone:






Maria cocking her head back like that is very bad against a skillful striker. That is big nono in boxing, i remember my boxing coach telling me to never do that in a fight, its a mistake rookies make.

 

[GoldenWolf87]

i wouldn't worry about gloria dropping the ball here, the question is rather maria can survive 3 rounds, the technique for gloria is fundamentally 10x a lot better.

I even included her on tapology, i dont pick those without caution. Maria loses to every decent opponent she faces, and got finished 3 times. Her only decent win was against a fellow can crusher with a padded record.


compare boxing alone:






Maria cocking her head back like that is very bad against a skillful striker. That is big nono in boxing, i remember my boxing coach telling me to never do that in a fight, its a mistake rookies make.

I had seen some small vids of her, thank you for the other one in Brazil. I couldn't find that one on YT.

In that one she seems to also know a bit of wrestling.
If gloria on the fight card this week she could pull off her gameplan and utilize her wrestling with the boxing she could have a decent chance with the UFC of course this is her first trail.

Dec with her pulling of take down is another possibility with a dec prop. If the TKO/KO doesn't utilize.

 

[mkess101]

34 isn't that old and Oliveira looked great. He was always a very hot/cold fighter and he came out with a point to prove. I don't think anyone expected him to fight like that. It's not like he beat the chit out of Holland in round one though, he just looked a lot better than expected. Then got KO'd.

Tim Means fights nothing like that so it doesn't really make sense to try and compare the two fights.

Holland is not a bad grappler and has pretty solid TDD. He is much stronger and more explosive so I'll be completely shocked if Means can grapplefuck him for 3 rounds. If Means tries throwing 500 jabs like usual, he's going to eat straight rights all night, or however long his chin holds up, which probably won't be very long.

I think it's quite likely that Holland runs through him. If it was 5 years ago, maybe not.

Kevin Holland has pretty solid TDD??? On what planet?

He's fine on the mat in terms of he is good at avoiding damage, etc. He's been easily manhandled before, albeit at 185 against bigger guys.

Means may well be shot, and he might not be big or strong enough to grapplefuck Holland for the 2 rounds he'd need. But paying -300 on Holland...no way. He may come out and KO Tim inside a minute. Absolutely possible. But not worth this juice at all, he could drop a couple rounds just being dragged into a dirty clinch fest or being content to fight off his back for too many minutes.

 

[ExitLUPin]

Wineland decision is +900

 

[Captain Chesapeake]

Wineland decision is +900

These lines are out of control

I’m playing exclusively dogs besides Rodriguez who I got at evens

 

[ExitLUPin]

These lines are out of control

I’m playing exclusively dogs besides Rodriguez who I got at evens

I just cashed out my Guram (I don't like how many people online are picking him and confident about it lol) bet but some dogs here def are worth a sprinkle.

 

[The Disasters]

I think most of the odds are pretty accurate on this card.

The ones I think are a bit off:
Cerrone/Lauzon - Neither deserves to be a -160 chalk against pretty much anyone. You never know if the Cowboy who wants to fight shows up or the guy who is slow and ready to quit at a moments notice. It's no secret that he has mental issues each fight and I'd never lay that kind of chalk on a guy like that. I wish they were both retired but I don't see how this is anything but a coin-flip.

Buckley/Duraev - Duraev is the deserved chalk but he's very hittable and Buckley hits like a truck. While Buckley is a different striker than Kopylov, if he lands half as much, Duraev goes to sleep. Duraev also struggled mightily to finish takedowns and Buckley has tree-trunk legs. He's terrible on the bottom, but if he can improve his sprawl just a little he can wear Duraev out fast. Most likely is Duraev by decision but the spread is too wide.

Marquez/Rodrigues - I'm a bit of a Krause-stan since I appreciate coaches who put their fighters in the best position to win. I've not been impressed with Marquez yet, but I think he has the skills to be good if he can take some coaching. I definitely have Rodrigues as chalk but the price is too high.

Wineland/Stamann - I'm never touching either of these guys at -550. I don't understand who's dumb enough to bet at that price. But, I think the total is mis-priced. Wineland has been sent to the shadow realm a lot lately and it's clear that he still likes to stand and bang like he used to, while not having the same physical attributes he used to. I know Stamann isn't a big hitter but he throws wild looping overhands and it shouldn't take many of them. Also, the under hedges against the small chance that Wineland lands the big shot.

I also think both women's fights are too wide. Neither of the big chalks has shown near enough to be 70% to win. Da Silva could catch a sub, de Paula could slip when throwing kicks and end up losing a few rounds laying on her back, etc. Laying that kind of chalk in these fights is a good way to lose money.

 

[Guld]

I guess I'll just echo what's been said already and say that the lines are kinda ridiculous for this card.
A couple of sprinkle bets on the dogs will likely hit big at some point, so that's probably the way to go.
Live bets might be a smart plan as well.

 

[Bakayoko]

Some random thoughts:
Agree on Buckley and Lauzon as dogs.Duraev wasn't even trying to wrestle against Kopylov as much,bad IQ,barely got a dec although Kopylov is bad.Buckley could get a KO,win a dec through more damage on the feet and his phisicallity and explosivnes could make Duraev struggle to take and keep him down.Not saying Buckley wins this but you can find him at 3,00 which is ridiciolous.
Hawes is the best favorite,Rodriguez is a good favorite,Marquez has a chin but he would be out if it was robocop instead of Pitolo in that fight.Rodriguez is better everywhere,more tehnical,more power,he could gas though,but that can be hedged through live bet.
Kattar perhaps has some value too,he's the better boxer,will beat Emmet to the punch,just a question as usually how will he handle the kicks,but I think he takes this.
Ismagulov-Kuteladze should go to DEC although it's juiced.
That's pretty much that.

 

[SherdogWasNeverMyFriend]

Some random thoughts:
Agree on Buckley and Lauzon as dogs.Duraev wasn't even trying to wrestle against Kopylov as much,bad IQ,barely got a dec although Kopylov is bad.Buckley could get a KO,win a dec through more damage on the feet and his phisicallity and explosivnes could make Duraev struggle to take and keep him down.Not saying Buckley wins this but you can find him at 3,00 which is ridiciolous.

I can see Buckley KO'ing Duraev, but most likely Albert grinds him out. Kopylov is not really bad and hits like a truck too. I think Duraev had the worst performance in Abu Dhabi he could possibly have while Kopylov had the best performance in the UFC so far. Buckley struggled with fucking Arroyo and gassed in the third against Al Hassan who grappled with him. So speaking of cardio they can both suck, but at least Kopylov fight was fast pace, so it could be that. I predict dominant victory from the Russian.

 

[BigSteve]

jump on, currently live with our first sharp guest

 

[XociDe]

Kevin Holland has pretty solid TDD??? On what planet?

He's fine on the mat in terms of he is good at avoiding damage, etc. He's been easily manhandled before, albeit at 185 against bigger guys.

Means may well be shot, and he might not be big or strong enough to grapplefuck Holland for the 2 rounds he'd need. But paying -300 on Holland...no way. He may come out and KO Tim inside a minute. Absolutely possible. But not worth this juice at all, he could drop a couple rounds just being dragged into a dirty clinch fest or being content to fight off his back for too many minutes.

You're judging his TDD on fights against against two of the biggest crotch sniffers in WW history, who were top 5 in the division at the time. He did also defend a fair few in those fights and showed good explosiveness, durability, and the ability to get back up, again against elite middleweights. I didn't say he has prime Aldo type TDD btw. I just said it's pretty solid, as in someone like Means should not be able to do what Brunson/Vettori did. Holland is a big guy but he is much better suited to 170.

He has the size, reach, strength, speed, age, power, and grappling advantage in this fight. If he loses, it's a massive fuck up on his part. He has the ability to control every aspect of the fight. The only thing Means has is better pure boxing technique but I think the speed difference negates that. I'm going to reiterate that means is 38 and coming off a 12 month layoff. I'll be surprised if that doesn't affect him, although even on his best day I don't think he has anything for Holland at this point.

We have all been massively wrong before, so let's see what happens.

I've got Holland in a double with Kattar, just btw.

 

[mkess101]

You're judging his TDD on fights against against two of the biggest crotch sniffers in WW history, who were top 5 in the division at the time. He did also defend a fair few in those fights and showed good explosiveness, durability, and the ability to get back up, again against elite middleweights. I didn't say he has prime Aldo type TDD btw. I just said it's pretty solid, as in someone like Means should not be able to do what Brunson/Vettori did. Holland is a big guy but he is much better suited to 170.

He has the size, reach, strength, speed, age, power, and grappling advantage in this fight. If he loses, it's a massive fuck up on his part. He has the ability to control every aspect of the fight. The only thing Means has is better pure boxing technique but I think the speed difference negates that. I'm going to reiterate that means is 38 and coming off a 12 month layoff. I'll be surprised if that doesn't affect him, although even on his best day I don't think he has anything for Holland at this point.

We have all been massively wrong before, so let's see what happens.

I've got Holland in a double with Kattar, just btw.

It's not just results I guess... Holland's technique also sucks when it comes to TDD.

Means may not be the guy at 170 to exploit it though, Holland's size and athleticism might be enough alone to keep him off his back.

I favor Holland obviously, but the juice is just waaay to much. -200ish maybe? Hell maybe -170 or so makes sense. Sure as hell not -300.

 

[GoldenWolf87]

Wineland decision is +900

I can see the oddmarkers are drunk again..

Where are you seeing this FD?

 

[Post 2 Decision]

So much talk about Holland/Means

I'm 8 for 8 in picking for/against Holland (He's had 9 fights since I've started tracking on Tapology, but it lists the No Contest vs Daukaus as a loss, even though you can't pick a NC outcome lol)

I see him cruising here for the most part, finish within 2.
Betting Holland ITD