UFC Fight Night 137

JimGunn said:
I hit Rodriguez for 1u early at +105, but I just watched that video video you posted and your argument swayed me. Switching to Randa big at -105.
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... well I hope I'm right then :D

there are some unknowns and Randa can be a bit flakey, but Rodriguez looks very takedownable IMO and Randa has had many tough, competitive fights with proven competition (while Rodriguez hasn't fought anyone yet), so I think Randa should be the fav, a case of 'exciting striker hype' IMO (my favorite type of hype to fade)

...incoming Rodriguez R3 triangle or scorecard screwjob (thou if Randa grapples enough I don't think it'll give the judges enough to throw the fight on, she might even get a sub herself)
 
Xuh said:
Yesterday morning I woke up to find a dog; I proceed to smash... that dog being Randa Markos

I don't know if this fight is one of the ones readily availible you guys saw already (I don't have fight pass if it's on there) but here's Marina Rodriguez vs Amanda Torres:



Noting from that & elsewhere:
- Her opponent above is 8-5 with a loss to Priscila Cachoeira (the crackhead recently murdered by Valentina Shevchenko)
- I don't think Rodriguez would recognise an underhook if she watched 48 hours straight of Dominic Cruz fight commentary. Randa should be able to drop for TDs or get bodylocks all day
- Also will be easy to head & arm throw ;)
- She doesn't seem to hard get down shooting from space for a TD either
- On the mat her game is questionable. Once on the mat it's Randa's fight to lose (admittedly she does dumb stuff sometimes eg the Casey fight)
- Rodriguez was very nearly was subbed at the end of the fight posted above (admittedly, she was probably going for broke in the last seconds trying to get a finish).
- Rodriguez's striking from distance is nothing to wet yer panties about
- Randa isn't going to quit just because she got punched in the face like some random bum on DWTNCS
- This is basically an IQ test for Randa, wrestle and she should win (and her base is wrestling). Randa may not be very reliable or consistent, and sometimes does dumb things, but wait, she actually is completely consistent because...
- Randa lost her last fight so according to Newton's 4th Universal law (the Markos Constant) she will win her next one.

Rodriguez has a style that will appeal to fans and is also a rare Brazilian fighter who actually looks female (...can we still say that?) so doubtless the UFC will like to promote her, but I think they gave her a bad matchup here for her debut.

I maxed Randa's line when it hit evens on BetOnline ($500 for $500)
I also maxed Livia Souza the same place when peaked at 1.20 ($1250 to win $250 lol)
& parlayed them for smaller amounts on some books where Randa never quite made evens by herself.
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This is gold, couldn't find this video. I had nearly 4u on Markos based on the 20~ mins of footage I was able to find across 4 fights. Had capped her -300 with a few question marks, this confirms all assumptions I made and can comfortably add.
 
Only thing I don't like about Randa is her talking about how she wanted more time between fights and how she thought that her mental game was weak after her most recent loss which was something that she worked on recently.

 
Xuh said:
Yesterday morning I woke up to find a dog; I proceed to smash... that dog being Randa Markos

I don't know if this fight is one of the ones readily availible you guys saw already (I don't have fight pass if it's on there) but here's Marina Rodriguez vs Amanda Torres:



Noting from that & elsewhere:
- Her opponent above is 8-5 with a loss to Priscila Cachoeira (the crackhead recently murdered by Valentina Shevchenko)
- I don't think Rodriguez would recognise an underhook if she watched 48 hours straight of Dominic Cruz fight commentary. Randa should be able to drop for TDs or get bodylocks all day
- Also will be easy to head & arm throw ;)
- She doesn't seem to hard get down shooting from space for a TD either
- On the mat her game is questionable. Once on the mat it's Randa's fight to lose (admittedly she does dumb stuff sometimes eg the Casey fight)
- Rodriguez was very nearly was subbed at the end of the fight posted above (admittedly, she was probably going for broke in the last seconds trying to get a finish).
- Rodriguez's striking from distance is nothing to wet yer panties about
- Randa isn't going to quit just because she got punched in the face like some random bum on DWTNCS
- This is basically an IQ test for Randa, wrestle and she should win (and her base is wrestling). Randa may not be very reliable or consistent, and sometimes does dumb things, but wait, she actually is completely consistent because...
- Randa lost her last fight so according to Newton's 4th Universal law (the Markos Constant) she will win her next one.

Rodriguez has a style that will appeal to fans and is also a rare Brazilian fighter who actually looks female (...can we still say that?) so doubtless the UFC will like to promote her, but I think they gave her a bad matchup here for her debut.

I maxed Randa's line when it hit evens on BetOnline ($500 for $500)
I also maxed Livia Souza the same place when peaked at 1.20 ($1250 to win $250 lol)
& parlayed them for smaller amounts on some books where Randa never quite made evens by herself.
Click to expand...


Nice post. I never heard of rutube but added it to my favourites there. Should help when looking for mma vids. How did you know about it? Are you Russian?
 
JimGunn said:
Only thing I don't like about Randa is her talking about how she wanted more time between fights and how she thought that her mental game was weak after her most recent loss which was something that she worked on recently.

Click to expand...



She sounds a bit weird in that video. Something seems off. Maybe she's just being honest. I get the feeling she would be tough work as a girlfriend
 
JimGunn said:
Only thing I don't like about Randa is her talking about how she wanted more time between fights and how she thought that her mental game was weak after her most recent loss which was something that she worked on recently.

Click to expand...


She said her coaches told her she "had to take this fight." I think the coaches must know that this is going to be an easy style matchup for her.

I think it's a little odd that her coaches would sit her down and tell her to address her mental game though. She didn't really have mental lapses at all against Nina. She tried to work her game through all 3 rounds and was shooting TDs until the very last minute of the fight. If she landed one, she wouldve won but Nina was just better. No need to change things up at all, especially since the same gameplan should work a treat against a girl as raw as Marina.
 
It sounds to me that Randa was having confidence issues leading up to the fights rather than in the fight itself. With Randa's experience and her opponents relative inexperience at this level of competition along with the style matchup I am not too worried about backing Randa.
 
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The first 2 chick fights are +230 and +145 to go the distance. Like 90% of wmma fights go the distance, are these really that big a mismatch?
 
burge13 said:
The first 2 chick fights are +230 and +145 to go the distance. Like 90% of wmma fights go the distance, are these really that big a mismatch?
Click to expand...
Souza vs Chambers is that big of a mismatch, have a hard time seeing Chambers survive 3 rounds
 
raketmannen said:
Souza vs Chambers is that big of a mismatch, have a hard time seeing Chambers survive 3 rounds
Click to expand...

I took Souza by decision +320. Sure Souza has a great chance of finishing Chambers. But implied odds of 75% finish when the average finish rate at strawweight is like 30%? I think Chambers is a bit too tough to get KO'd standing because she's tough as hell and Livia is a bit undersized. And she's bad enough standing where Livia can feel confident piecing her up. Of course, Chambers does force the action making a finish more likely, but sometimes you gotta go against the obvious results for value.
 
turbozed said:
I took Souza by decision +320. Sure Souza has a great chance of finishing Chambers. But implied odds of 75% finish when the average finish rate at strawweight is like 30%? I think Chambers is a bit too tough to get KO'd standing because she's tough as hell and Livia is a bit undersized. And she's bad enough standing where Livia can feel confident piecing her up. Of course, Chambers does force the action making a finish more likely, but sometimes you gotta go against the obvious results for value.
Click to expand...
But is the overall finishing rate for strawweights the key point here? I'd rather look at 75% of Chambers losses comes from being finished by lesser competition than Souza is, while Souza has finished 6 of her last 7 wins and Chambers is almost 40. You got decent odds on her decision though, down to +240 now
 
Barao clearly stopped his cut, which is a good thing. Obviously making weight is ideal, but if he was going to miss, missing by 5+ lbs is way better than him struggling. Not adding to my action, but certainly not looking to arb down either.
 
Xuh said:
Yesterday morning I woke up to find a dog; I proceed to smash... that dog being Randa Markos

I don't know if this fight is one of the ones readily availible you guys saw already (I don't have fight pass if it's on there) but here's Marina Rodriguez vs Amanda Torres:



Noting from that & elsewhere:
- Her opponent above is 8-5 with a loss to Priscila Cachoeira (the crackhead recently murdered by Valentina Shevchenko)
- I don't think Rodriguez would recognise an underhook if she watched 48 hours straight of Dominic Cruz fight commentary. Randa should be able to drop for TDs or get bodylocks all day
- Also will be easy to head & arm throw ;)
- She doesn't seem to hard get down shooting from space for a TD either
- On the mat her game is questionable. Once on the mat it's Randa's fight to lose (admittedly she does dumb stuff sometimes eg the Casey fight)
- Rodriguez was very nearly was subbed at the end of the fight posted above (admittedly, she was probably going for broke in the last seconds trying to get a finish).
- Rodriguez's striking from distance is nothing to wet yer panties about
- Randa isn't going to quit just because she got punched in the face like some random bum on DWTNCS
- This is basically an IQ test for Randa, wrestle and she should win (and her base is wrestling). Randa may not be very reliable or consistent, and sometimes does dumb things, but wait, she actually is completely consistent because...
- Randa lost her last fight so according to Newton's 4th Universal law (the Markos Constant) she will win her next one.

Rodriguez has a style that will appeal to fans and is also a rare Brazilian fighter who actually looks female (...can we still say that?) so doubtless the UFC will like to promote her, but I think they gave her a bad matchup here for her debut.

I maxed Randa's line when it hit evens on BetOnline ($500 for $500)
I also maxed Livia Souza the same place when peaked at 1.20 ($1250 to win $250 lol)
& parlayed them for smaller amounts on some books where Randa never quite made evens by herself.
Click to expand...


Xuh youre the man for finding that footage, like Sad said it pretty much confirms some assumptions we were forced to make from the other footage that was available. Loved the fact she tries to win rounds off her back instead of looking to get up and is always looking for the clinch. Randa's awkward striking should actually look decent here as well, since she will land 2-3 punches in her burst and immediately grab a body lock from the clinch. Total Randa stake is now 4.5u.
 
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