UFC Fight Night 137

[ClipYourDirtyWings]

Anders was given a lay-up last time out and struggled to put him away as a -900 (can't remember the # but was huge) favourite. Americans seem to think he's some athletic phenomenon because he played football but he's remarkably unremarkable in the cage. I'd want a bigger number on him tbh

To be fair, the fact that he played D1 football and was a fringe NFL prospect by default makes him athletically superior to anyone he’s going to fight in the UFC. Like, as far as UFC fighters go he is an athletic phenomenon. I agree he hasn’t looked outstanding in the cage by any means and hasn’t fought anyone I’d call top-tier, but it’s his durability and Santos’ lack thereof that makes me favor him heavily here. He’s also new to the sport and has a much better likelihood of improving dramatically between fights than santos does.

 

[mkess101]

To be fair, the fact that he played D1 football and was a fringe NFL prospect by default makes him athletically superior to anyone he’s going to fight in the UFC. Like, as far as UFC fighters go he is an athletic phenomenon. I agree he hasn’t looked outstanding in the cage by any means and hasn’t fought anyone I’d call top-tier, but it’s his durability and Santos’ lack thereof that makes me favor him heavily here. He’s also new to the sport and has a much better likelihood of improving dramatically between fights than santos does.

I said the same thing about who's more likely to show improvements fight to fight in post #90 itt. Granted Anders last fight was very recent, so odds are he's not gonna make giant leaps or anything but the room to grow and improve is definitely more on his side.

People are also talking about how Santos' chin issues might improve without him having to cut to 185 (and that might be true). But it's probably then also true that Anders is gonna bring more heat on his shots at 205. DC talked about how he would hit guys at LHW with the same punches he landed at HW but they wouldn't have as much effect. So he's KO'ing a guy like Stipe with the same punch that a LWH can absorb because he's just hitting that much harder at a higher weight class. It looks like Lionheart is packing more power at LHW than MW too so far. Just something to think about if you are thinking that Santos all of a sudden is gonna have a great chin because he's moving up to 205.

 

[mkess101]

Lil Nog/Alvey:

I absolutely understand the rationale behind betting Nog by dec. Alvey has been maddening at times with his reluctance to engage. But I just have to believe him this time when he says he''ll be more aggressive. He knows the fight is in Brazil and that odds are judges will look for any reason to give rounds to Nog. He knows he most likely has the MUCH better chin. He knows he packs power. Gun to my head, I think he puts Nog away. -115 isn't super exciting for me though. Not sure it holds a lot of value, I see it as kind of right where it is, a bit better than 50/50 that Alvey gets the KO.

 

[mkess101]

Anders sub +2800 demands a tiny play. It's a 5 round fight. I just rewatched Santos' last fight, he was TIRED in round 3. He fought through it, but he didn't have a ton left in the tank. If this thing goes past 3 rounds, Anders could freaking default into a sub based purely on Santos being too exhausted to do anything but tap.

 

[MidgardSerpent]

I don't think Anders' athleticism is gonna be that much of a noticeable advantage, Santos is a physical specimen himself and is a terrifically gifted and entertaining finisher and shown much more in the UFC than Anders has so far. Regarding Anders' durability, where have we seen solid examples of that? Santos' chin is obviously concern though, I think people massively overuse the term chinny, but those ko losses vs Mousasi and Branch are concerning, because it genuinely looked they didn't land THAT hard, Mousasi's standing punch was almost more of a shove.

 

[Gugabe]

To be fair, the fact that he played D1 football and was a fringe NFL prospect by default makes him athletically superior to anyone he’s going to fight in the UFC. Like, as far as UFC fighters go he is an athletic phenomenon. I agree he hasn’t looked outstanding in the cage by any means and hasn’t fought anyone I’d call top-tier, but it’s his durability and Santos’ lack thereof that makes me favor him heavily here. He’s also new to the sport and has a much better likelihood of improving dramatically between fights than santos does.

Why do people think Anders has any particularly notable durability? We've not seen him take any stiff shots in his UFC career. D1 Football also means that he's going to have a hell of a lot of mileage on his body that's going to make him at best a middle-aged 31. What we've seen out of him so far is a limited striker/grappler who's relied a lot on his athletic advantages to make his game work. Santos is by far the best athlete he's been across the cage from, and it wouldn't shock me if that's enough to unravel Anders' game. Santos is chinny, but I haven't seen anything from Anders that makes me feel like he'll tank Santos' early aggression. Hell, a Santos blitz could easily be the first real adversity we've seen Anders endure.

Dude's also consistently gunshy. Lost the Machida fight because of it, and then the Williams fight was far harder than it needed to be due to his reluctance to throw strikes. Anders sitting in the middle-distance, trying to pump his straight left really doesn't seem like the best idea against a guy with Santos' diverse kicking game.

 

[mkess101]

Why do people think Anders has any particularly notable durability? We've not seen him take any stiff shots in his UFC career. D1 Football also means that he's going to have a hell of a lot of mileage on his body that's going to make him at best a middle-aged 31. What we've seen out of him so far is a limited striker/grappler who's relied a lot on his athletic advantages to make his game work. Santos is by far the best athlete he's been across the cage from, and it wouldn't shock me if that's enough to unravel Anders' game. Santos is chinny, but I haven't seen anything from Anders that makes me feel like he'll tank Santos' early aggression. Hell, a Santos blitz could easily be the first real adversity we've seen Anders endure.

Dude's also consistently gunshy. Lost the Machida fight because of it, and then the Williams fight was far harder than it needed to be due to his reluctance to throw strikes. Anders sitting in the middle-distance, trying to pump his straight left really doesn't seem like the best idea against a guy with Santos' diverse kicking game.

Yeah even as someone who thinks there's a bit of value on Anders at current odds, I think trumpeting his durability doesn't make a ton of sense. He's been hit, but not with anything huge. He's reacted well sure, but it's not like he's been in any wars where he's taken serious damage and fought through it. In addition, Santos obviously has power in his punches AND kicks, and just like with Anders, it's probably safe to say Santos is gonna bring even more power at 205 than he did at 185 (he sure as hell isn't gonna hit LESS hard).

I will say though that I think if Santos doesn't finish Anders early, the fight very likely will start to go Anders way. Santos has that ultra muscular, show-muscle physique that just sucks a ton of oxygen to all that muscle. He slowed a LOT vs Holland. Holland was tired as hell too (and yeah there was a good amount of grappling I realize in that fight). But Santos was REALLY tired in round 3 in that fight, where as we've seen Anders go 5 rounds (albeit at a slower pace) and not look fatigued at all. Anders is muscular too, but it's just a more natural look and I think his cardio is likely levels above Santos'.

 

[mkess101]

Leites getting smashed today. -140 now.

Some $ on Henrique? I can't remember what he was earlier in the week but I feel like Spann's line was wider.

 

[lifeisgood12345]

Leites getting smashed today. -140 now.

Some $ on Henrique? I can't remember what he was earlier in the week but I feel like Spann's line was wider.

Spann was around -215 earlier. Guessing lotta people are expecting a wrestlefuck

 

[mkess101]

Spann was around -215 earlier. Guessing lotta people are expecting a wrestlefuck

Thought so. I played Spann -145 now, but a small bet. I think he finds Henrique's chin or stuffs enough TD's and wins on the feet to get the dec.

 

[lifeisgood12345]

Thought so. I played Spann -145 now, but a small bet. I think he finds Henrique's chin or stuffs enough TD's and wins on the feet to get the dec.

It's not a bad thought. I've been toying with the idea. My #'s have Spann finish as highly likely (slightly ahead of Souza, Zaleski, and the Oliveiras for most likely finish on a card full of likely finishes), but I am contemplating if I trust Spann enough to lay juice.

 

[mkess101]

It's not a bad thought. I've been toying with the idea. My #'s have Spann finish as highly likely (slightly ahead of Souza, Zaleski, and the Oliveiras for most likely finish on a card full of likely finishes), but I am contemplating if I trust Spann enough to lay juice.

I think (as my huge bets on it show) that Do Bronx is EASILY the most likely to finish. If Giagos makes it out of rd 1 not getting subbed, I'll be somewhat surprised. If he avoids getting subbed for the entire fight, I'll be stunned.

 

[lifeisgood12345]

I think (as my huge bets on it show) that Do Bronx is EASILY the most likely to finish. If Giagos makes it out of rd 1 not getting subbed, I'll be somewhat surprised. If he avoids getting subbed for the entire fight, I'll be stunned.

I agree. #'s miss a number of subjective nuances, there are reasons to expect the others to possibly survive but not much to like for Giagos outside of the fact that he seems to have improved since his last UFC stint. But even if so, Olive is a monster finisher

 

[mkess101]

I agree. #'s miss a number of subjective nuances, there are reasons to expect the others to possibly survive but not much to like for Giagos outside of the fact that he seems to have improved since his last UFC stint. But even if so, Olive is a monster finisher

Yep. The thing with Do Bronx is that he absolutely sells out looking to lock up subs. And he's damn good at it IF it's against non top level guys. The Anthony Pettis, Paul Felder, etc. types are good enough to survive his onslaught of choke attempts generally. And then he tires and often gets finished. But Giagos just isn't in that class of fighter, or even close. It's a grappling mismatch, and it's not a grappling mismatch where the more skilled guy is content to ride out position and win rounds. It's a grappling mismatch where the better grappler is constantly looking for the finish.

 

[mkess101]

So even though there are 14 fights and 4 on fight pass, the fight pass card starts at 6:30 eastern (5:30 central)? I just want to make sure I'm seeing this correctly. So the TV prelims and main card both start half an hour later than normal too I guess...

 

[hawk77]

am i missing something with Lombards weigh ins? I get all of the red flags with him, but assuming lietes cant take this to the ground lombard has to be at least a small favorite right?

 

[hawk77]

is anyone tempted by the over 2.5 -185 on dunham trinaldo? Might be a bit of a stretch with two older fighters and E.D coming off getting finished, but i see this as a slow paced fight

 

[Karmello]

So even though there are 14 fights and 4 on fight pass, the fight pass card starts at 6:30 eastern (5:30 central)? I just want to make sure I'm seeing this correctly. So the TV prelims and main card both start half an hour later than normal too I guess...

Yup half hour later, main card starts at 4:30 AM here instead of 4:00, glad I just got a nap in

 

[mkess101]

Yup half hour later, main card starts at 4:30 AM here instead of 4:00, glad I just got a nap in

LOL nice. I'm a spoiled American, 5:30 to about midnight is literally the perfect time for viewing.

 

[piglord]

am i missing something with Lombards weigh ins? I get all of the red flags with him, but assuming lietes cant take this to the ground lombard has to be at least a small favorite right?

i like lombard for 1u, leites looking suspiciously skinny lately too.