UFC FIGHT NIGHT 131

Discussion in 'MMA Betting Discussion' started by Wiktoruspro, May 27, 2018.

  1. Yotsuya

    Yotsuya Blue Belt

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    I’ve been thinking the same. Belal did get a last minute finish when he fought as favourite against Montano.
     
  2. Jamah

    Jamah Green Belt

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    I think that people find difficult to back up a fighter with a 10-7 record that has lost 2 in a row and that was tapped in 1 minute by Werdum.
    I agree with you that Harris is the much better fighter, I think that Spitz is terrible. I'm a dog lover, but there's no value on Spitz at +200.
     
  3. Lightbringer

    Lightbringer White Belt

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    I am taping that fight now and Harris should absolutely smash him.
     
  4. Agent Mulder

    Agent Mulder Black Belt

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    Fair enough but his last fight shouldn't count as a loss if you're a bettor. He was winning and Godbeer wanted out.
     
  5. Jamah

    Jamah Green Belt

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    Yeah, for sure. I'm just trying to find a reasonable explanation to why the public is betting on Spitz.
     
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  6. iGnP

    iGnP Silver Belt

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    Alvey is so underwhelming though. Idk if I trust him for a bet, let alone as a favorite
     
  7. MT6ix

    MT6ix Blue Belt

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    Not sure how much influence guys like HTB have on betting markets but one of the guys are betting on Spitz and said Harris is a flake.

    Spitz is tough and Harris is a bad matchup for him since he is a punching bag unless it goes to the ground where Harris is lost.
     
    Last edited: Jun 1, 2018
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  8. pytycrys

    pytycrys Green Belt

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    I like Daniel Teymur a lot as well

    Btw, paddypower has Daniel Teymur dec +1200 for who is not limited to 50p there. Lol.

    Glad that my friend has got a new account with them and got some on that. My friend, certainly not me.
     
    Last edited: Jun 1, 2018
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  9. Bodybuilder

    Bodybuilder Green Belt

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    Daniel Teymur is probably the best value bet on the card.

    Villante/Alvey is a coin flip IMO. Alvey too inactive and moving up a weightclass. If Villante implements the Leites game plan he should win easily, but his fight IQ is so low you can't trust him. Probably bet Villante small.
     
  10. Naught2Sixty

    Naught2Sixty Purple Belt

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    Aha I see the circle jerk is forming, I'll get the cracker. 1.5u Dan Teymur +150, .25u Dan Teymur KO +550
     
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  11. Sadistics

    Sadistics Green Belt

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    Just want to point out that Walt opened -140. It seems most people, oddsmakers included, are just looking at the records and recent accomplishments
     
  12. Agent Mulder

    Agent Mulder Black Belt

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    Wow. That's crazy.
     
  13. Sham5916910

    Sham5916910 Silver Belt

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    No
     
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  14. Agent Mulder

    Agent Mulder Black Belt

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    Welcome brother.
     
  15. Naught2Sixty

    Naught2Sixty Purple Belt

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    Man, I was watching Teymur/Henry earlier, looked like Mighty Mouse fighting Brock Lesnar LOL and the M'fer was landing absolute heat on Henry. He probably only weighed 155 because he jumped off the couch to take the fight and chugged a bunch of water. Dude is most likely a natural 145 and is going to be fighting at 135 in the near future.
     
  16. Naught2Sixty

    Naught2Sixty Purple Belt

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    [​IMG]
     
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  17. Sadistics

    Sadistics Green Belt

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    Crazy stat, of Lentz' 12 UFC wins, not a single one is still on the roster.
     
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  18. MT6ix

    MT6ix Blue Belt

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    I got to watch some tape before I join the circle jerk. The circle jerks haven't been going too well lately.
     
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  19. Naught2Sixty

    Naught2Sixty Purple Belt

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    Even blind squirrels can find a nut sometimes. Sometimes the nut is on a cracker though, so...

    [​IMG]
     
  20. pytycrys

    pytycrys Green Belt

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    Long read coming, my 2 cents on all fights but the main event and Mohammad-Chance.

    Eubanks vs Murphy


    Eubanks

    -Black belt BJJ , 7x IBJJF world champ

    -aggressive, strong ground and pound especially since potentially juicing

    -her striking defense is not the best

    -Trained with Deanna Bennet


    Murphy

    -very basic striking, getting lit by Kelly Faszholz on the feet who was in on a week’s notice and was potentially winning a decision before getting pounded

    -keeps coming forward, great cardio

    -good wrestling that may secure rounds for her and decent work in the clinch


    Murphy will look to wrestle here and secure takedowns for winning rounds. While Eubanks may be the strongest opponent he has faced yet, it is still to be seen if Murphy should have success with her wrestling. Eubanks’s ground work is no joke, both her bjj and her ground and pound. Also her striking seems more polished than Murphy’s. Aspen Ladd had success with her wrestling against Eubanks, we will see if Murphy may have the same success.

    Odds are pretty accurate to me, Murphy should be a SMALL dog, but if it goes to bigger odds I’m willing to hit Murphy DEC at anything better than +220.


    Wood vs Eduardo


    Wood

    -very good striking, defence is not great

    -susceptible to leg kicks

    -poor wrestling skills in open space, good tdd on the fence

    -poor ground work

    -amazing chin


    Eduardo

    -good leg strikes

    -decent striking, especially on the counter

    -susceptible to takedowns

    -all his lately losses have come by way of being wrestled down and finished which seems to be his weak point.


    The story here is clear, Wood is coming to bang and finish Eduardo. However, Eduardo is no bum on the feet and has good counter-striking. Also, I can see him threatening Wood with standing submissions if they get to clinch on the fence. While I don’t think Eduardo can outvolume Wood to a decision, I think he could get him out inside the distance. Wood is good enough to be a favourite, but not -300… I’ll stab at Eduardo inside the distance +450



    Gregor Gillespie vs Vinc Pichel


    GG

    -Great wrestling pedigree

    -good boxing but gets hit quite a lot. He got stunned both by Gonzalez and Glaico Franca who are not exactly amazing boxers… However he’s showing improvements in this area each fight – probably versus Rinaldi he has shown his best boxing and pace in the striking department yet.

    -great ground control

    -tends to follow for ko finishes on the ground opponents that he has stunned. Otherwise, he seems fine to have control and work for submissions.


    Vinc Pichel

    -his takedown defense sucks..

    -decent striking stills but tends to get hit quite a lot

    -powerful hands


    Although Vinc is a big underdog, I don’t see why anyone would play his ML. IMO his only chance in this fight is to get a KO. I can’t argue with anyone playing his ITD/KO line as GG has been rocked before by way less polished strikers. While Pichel’s striking is not levels above Gillespie, he certainly has a lot more power in the hands so he may have an advantage standing. However, his poor tdd makes me wonder if he can keep this standing for more than a minute at the beginning of the round. I played Gillespie SUB at +1400 against Gonzales and I’m looking forward to that prop here as well, his KO ability tends to get overestimated. I wouldn’t play GG Itd at -110, but I would take the SUB at a decent price (+500 or more). I may take a small stab at Pichel KO at the right odds but this could be a better LB opportunity if he seems somehow to be able to keep it on the feet – which I kinda doubt right now.



    Daniel Teymur vs Julio Arce


    Daniel Teymur

    -Muay thai and Kickboxing background

    -training at Allstars with his brother and all the beasts

    -short notice against Henry and also a weigh class up – looked very gassed in rounds 2 and 3

    -viciour leg kicks and very heavy hands – had Henry in lots of trouble in the first round. I think full camp Teymur smashes Henry

    -has a quite bad tendency to heave his chin up


    Julio Arce

    -Golden Gloves boxing winner and a “MMA black belt” under Tiger Schulmann

    -good hands but susceptible to getting hit, was getting beaten on the foot by Petties in the DWTNCS fight in round 1..

    -he’s not necessarily a big hitter but has good technical boxing

    -he looked better against Ige but Ige is a grappler and his striking is sub-par


    I think in this match-up Teymur will have a lot of success with his leg kicks. I can even argue that he has more power in the hands. I think the odds are based on that short-notice loss of Teymur but I think he would have been a big favourite if he got the KO in R1 against Henry.

    I think odds should be evens at the most, if not Teymur to be a fav. I’m happy to take at +182 Teymur ML and I think Teymur dec +575 has lots of value in the US as well considering this will be a standing battle.


    Ellenberg vs Saunders


    Ellenberg

    -trains with Parillo with the likes of BJ Penn, RDA

    -sharp powerful striking

    -coming off of two stoppage losses but he showed good chin against Masvidal and he was doing well against Perry before the stoppage.

    -not sure what effect that Perry KO will have on him


    Saunders

    -training at ATT and jits at 10th planet

    -his chin doesn’t look to be there anymore. He seems to get dazed by every clean punch and his striking is kinda wild

    -while he’s a black belt in bjj, I don’t think this fight is gonna go on the ground, even Saunders said he’s happy to stay and bang

    -he got stunned multiple times by Sobotta who’s not a good striker and received so much damage from Jouban


    I think this is a matter of who is more shot. Both look willing to bang but Ellenberger definitely has the power advantage and even though he got knocked out last fight, he did not suffer as much damage as Saunders did versus Jouban or even against Sobotta.. Plus the Jouban fight was only three month ago which seems kinda crazy.

    Odds for under 1.5 are kinda small so I’m happier to take Jake Ellenberger ITD or Ellenberger R1-R2 +160 at Unibet


    Harris vs Spitz


    Harris

    -Golden Gloves champion background

    -all wins by KO (professional and 23 more in amateur)

    -not sure if he trains at ATT anymore

    -quite athletic but has tank seems unreliable

    -his defence is not great by any means


    Spitz

    -training under Ricky Little (sijkitsu)

    -kinda mediocre striking, gets hit a lot but lands sometimes some interesting knees. He was getting tagged so much by Godbeer

    -has three sub wins, against bad opponents but still

    -baad gas tank


    I really wanted to find a way to play Spitz as I do not rate Harris very high… But he is kinda garbage. His only way to win this is probably a hail mary submission. I think he gets pieced up by Harris inside the distance. I will play either Harris itd or Harris R1-R2.



    David Teymur vs Nik Lentz


    David Teymur

    -Muay thai and K1 background, training at all-stars with his brother and the rest of the beasts

    -great striking skills especially on the counter

    -beat two solid prospects in Vannata and Klose

    -very good clinch work

    -good scrambles on the ground to get back on the feet

    -decent trips


    Nik Lentz

    -wrestling background

    -training under Henri Hooft

    -great ground control

    -pressure striking, expect it to get better since training under HH


    I expect David Teymur to have a huge striking advantage and I don’t really think at this point Lentz can hold Teymur down to win this fight. Teymur is very explosive on the ground and have great get-ups and I expect his to kickbox his way to a decision victory.


    Gian Villante vs Sam Alvey

    Villante

    -training at Bellmore MMA

    -not the best chin and pretty hittable due to poor head movement

    -I guess his striking is not that bad, he has a decent jab but his defence is pretty shit


    Alvey

    -loooooow volume output

    -strong hands


    I don’t really find any odds attractive. It’s either Alvey KO or Villante dec due to higher output. Pass.



    Aguilar vs Esquibel


    Aguilar

    -training at ATT which may be the best place for WMMA

    -brown belt bjj, some gold medals for grappling

    -wrestling base, looking for takedowns

    -hittable in the striking department, decent leg kicks

    -gritty fighter and tough as nails


    Esquibel

    -boxing background at ~105 pounds (7-7-1 record)

    -training at Jackson Wink

    -pressure fighter, coming forward

    Shitty fight again. Esquibel is likely to have the striking advante, Aguilar will have the wrestling and ground game edge, it remains to be seen if she can get tds.



    Brooks vs Torres


    Torres

    -susceptible to takedowns

    -clean striker but gets hits quite often

    -competition has not been great and Brooks is certainly the best fighter he has faced yet.


    Brooks

    -great wrestling pedigree and good ground control

    -28-1 in amateur comp

    -good movement

    -low volume in striking might be his biggest flow, especially considering that he has quite decent leg kicks

    -does not follow with his shots, gets in and out

    -tends to slow down

    I will go to Jared Brooks via dec due his wrestling output, while Torres’ tdd is not great at all. Also Brooks is certainly the best opponent Torres has faced yet and I think this should be at evens at most.


    Tibau vs Green


    Tibau

    -black belt in bjj, state champ in wrestling, great grappling skills.

    -training at ATT

    -good grappling

    -USADA killed him? He’s still quite jacked as fuck..

    -brutal KO loss against Makhachev…Fluke? Or is Tibau shot?


    Green

    -wrestling background in college, Division 1 wrestler, All-American, etc

    -decent striking, probably a level above Tibau


    Probably Green will take a decision
     
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