UFC Charlotte: Jairzinho Rozenstruik vs. Jailton Almeida, May 13

StewDogg11 said:
Because McGee is bigger, has much better cardio, and is more durable especially at this stage in their respective careers. Brown’s only path to victory is a knockout whereas I could see a knockout, decision, or even a submission for McGee.
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Brown just survived a war with Barbarena and McGee just got knocked out. Even though McGee's been pretty durable throughout his career, an aging fighter getting viciously KO'd like that is a red flag for anyone moving forward. Not going to pretend Brown has an iron chin right now, but McGee doesn't knock anyone out and Brown can still give & take punches.
 
rev0lver said:
Brown just survived a war with Barbarena and McGee just got knocked out. Even though McGee's been pretty durable throughout his career, an aging fighter getting viciously KO'd like that is a red flag for anyone moving forward. Not going to pretend Brown has an iron chin right now, but McGee doesn't knock anyone out and Brown can still give & take punches.
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I think McGee likely will try to wall n stall and then some level changes for TD's. Doubt he's up for standing and trading a ton after getting blasted last time out. Esp because he's had some success in those boring type fights in the past.
 
rev0lver said:
Brown just survived a war with Barbarena and McGee just got knocked out. Even though McGee's been pretty durable throughout his career, an aging fighter getting viciously KO'd like that is a red flag for anyone moving forward. Not going to pretend Brown has an iron chin right now, but McGee doesn't knock anyone out and Brown can still give & take punches.
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Maybe but that war with Barberena certainly isn’t going to help Brown’s chin and I’ve always felt McGee carries more power than the lowly 5 KOs/TKOs he actually has shows. This is a fight where I’m merely hoping neither of these old warriors gets seriously injured.
 
Stat_Collector said:
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Thoughts on these as prop bets?

Andrade is ML
Ulberg ko1 or ko any round

Is it safe to assume Rozen has terrible sub defense despite never being tapped?

In ufcstats he has no one who ever attempted a sub attack, so he's never had to defend.
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I don't think there is any value on Almeida given that three of Rozenstruik's seven UFC wins have come in the first thirty seconds of the first round so all he needs is one moment to end the fight. However, if I were going to play Jailton I would do so ITD, not by SUB.

Jairzinho looked greased imho against both Gane and Overeem. If Jairzinho shows up like this Almeida will probably prefer to just pound him out because a choke will be difficult to apply and he won't want to burn his arms out.
 
UFCIsNOTRigged said:
I don't think there is any value on Almeida given that three of Rozenstruik's seven UFC wins have come in the first thirty seconds of the first round so all he needs is one moment to end the fight. However, if I were going to play Jailton I would do so ITD, not by SUB.

Jairzinho looked greased imho against both Gane and Overeem. If Jairzinho shows up like this Almeida will probably prefer to just pound him out because a choke will be difficult to apply and he won't want to burn his arms out.
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if he cant sub him, i actually think Rozen can avoid the gnp and lose on the scorecards. Rozen is very durable. And it's possible Almeida will be wary of blowing all his energy early and going for a long night of ctrl time.
 
Imo line for Brown is way off. Dog or pass
Smith imo is the Puck. Walker Has a momentami and probably matured a bit as a fighter, but he's still a glass canon. Smith should be able to find that chin or get grappling going
Morono should win comfortably. Means is way past prime
 
magpie878 said:
Going into the Blaydes/Pavlovich fight, the easy (and quite obvious) lock was that the main wouldn't go the distance, and I was ready to bet even with bad juice. When I saw DK had it at -1200, even I had to stop and say no.

I have to imagine the line won't be a whole lot different on this main event, I'm very curious to see it.
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Sorry to reply to my own post, just a follow-up... DK has this fight not going distance at -1400, with yes at +650. Holy mackerel.
 
Stat_Collector said:
if he cant sub him, i actually think Rozen can avoid the gnp and lose on the scorecards. Rozen is very durable. And it's possible Almeida will be wary of blowing all his energy early and going for a long night of ctrl time.
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Withstood a lot of grappling from Overeem.
 
Hellowhosthat said:
Withstood a lot of grappling from Overeem.
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True, but one thing Almeida is on a completely different level than someone like Overeem is advancing position. He puts way more pressure on opponents, which leads to either mistakes or them getting stuck in spots where they can't move and just eat gnp.
 
mkess101 said:
True, but one thing Almeida is on a completely different level than someone like Overeem is advancing position. He puts way more pressure on opponents, which leads to either mistakes or them getting stuck in spots where they can't move and just eat gnp.
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Yeah I agree with that, I just mean in the sense that Rozen isn't clueless on the ground.
 
Pete Rodriguez's LW experiment has already come to an unceremonious end. Asked to move the fight to a 160lbs catchweight and ended up quitting the weight cut when he got to 162.

Fight's been cancelled again.
 
First time in my life I’m playing only underdogs. I do have Ulberg in a few parlays, though. Battle @2,24, Rodriguez @3,25, Andrade @3,42, Rozenstruik @5,33.

Might add Garry DEC @2,30 as well.

Edit: Rodriguez cancelled because he’s a fat fuck.
 
Anyone think there's good value on Clark to beat Lisboa?

Lisboa looked unimpressive in all of her fights I watched, and all of her wins are against extremely low level girls. The combined record of the girls she's beat is 1-9. She fed on girls who were making their debuts for like her first 3-4 fights.

Clark's not elite in any way, but she's skilled enough in all areas and the level of competition she's faced is so much higher it isn't even comparable.

I get that Lisboa has a stand up background and that's sort of the promotional point for her. She's listed as a 2 time world MT champ, but seriously, at what level are talking here?

In one title winning fight she was fighting a low level girl at what looked like some sort of day event with hardly any people. Couldn't find vid for the other, but the girl she beat doesn't have this fight listed on her record, and hasn't beat anyone.

Other consideration with lower level girl MT is that the thai's are generally a lot weaker. When the skill level is so low like it is at this level, bigger foreign girls find it a lot easier to just impose themselves and take the fight.

The MT angle with Lisboa reminds me a lot of Melly Martinez and how they were touting her as a kickboxing world champ, when all she'd done was won a Wako day tournament against some cans. Lisboa's accomplishment's don't even seem as good as that.

The MT stuff actually leans into my I'd pick Jess over Lisboa. Jess usually has pretty decent gameplans. She doesn't try to prove herself by fighting opponent's at their own game. We saw this against Edwards. She could've stood and traded against a dangerous striker, but knew Edwards can't defend tds and just made it a wrestling match.

If Jess and her team have done any sort of research again, they'll know Lisboa will most likely want to strike. They'll know that Jess is slightly shorter as well. I think they'd be dumb not to plan for Jess to duck under and either td outright or clinch towards the cage and just win a boring fight as she's done in the past.

And even if this Lisboa is somehow miles better at MT, this is an MMA fight. Girls aren't standing in front of you to trade and strikes and wrestling is involved. Jess could make her striking very timid very quick with early grappling.

Also, Jess does fine in grinding fights that go the distance, meanwhile in 7 fights Lisboa has only gone beyond round 1 just twice. In one she lost to the only girl of any skill she's fought outside of Norma Dumont, and in the other she took almost 3 rounds to get a corner stoppage against a girl who was making her MMA debut (she never fought MMA again) and seemed to just be a kickboxer.

This feels like a lay up to get Clark back on track. I mean maybe she's dumb and just tries to strike and gets caught, but otherwise I don't see how she doesn't just grind Lisboa out or finish her on the mat.

Girls like Lisboa with the low quality record and who barely see a second round don't seem to ever do well once they're under the big lights.

Jess is 2.00, which seems wild to me. Coming off 2 losses is a bad look for Clark, but the level of her losses is totally unlike anything Lisboa has faced.
 
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xhaydenx said:
Anyone think there's good value on Clark to beat Lisboa?
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Yes.

I have a small bet on Clark submission +840, and I will live bet Clark's money line toward the end of Round 1 if I see she's not outmatched. If Clark isn't outmatched, then she'll get a take down(s) and probably find the sub at some point. I just need to see a little bit of something from Clark before I invest anything substantial on her money line, since she's known for having low fight IQ.
 
PuertoRican said:
Yes.

I have a small bet on Clark submission +840, and I will live bet Clark's money line toward the end of Round 1 if I see she's not outmatched. If Clark isn't outmatched, then she'll get a take down(s) and probably find the sub at some point. I just need to see a little bit of something from Clark before I invest anything substantial on her money line, since she's known for having low fight IQ.
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How does she have low fight IQ? I thought she showed good fight IQ against Edwards for example.

Sure, she got armbarred twice in a row after that, but those weren't necessarily due to dumb decisions of her own.
 
xhaydenx said:
Anyone think there's good value on Clark to beat Lisboa?

Lisboa looked unimpressive in all of her fights I watched, and all of her wins are against extremely low level girls. The combined record of the girls she's beat is 1-9. She fed on girls who were making their debuts for like her first 3-4 fights.

Clark's not elite in any way, but she's skilled enough in all areas and the level of competition she's faced is so much higher it isn't even comparable.

I get that Lisboa has a stand up background and that's sort of the promotional point for her. She's listed as a 2 time world MT champ, but seriously, at what level are talking here?

In one title winning fight she was fighting a low level girl at what looked like some sort of day event with hardly any people. Couldn't find vid for the other, but the girl she beat doesn't have this fight listed on her record, and hasn't beat anyone.

Other consideration with lower level girl MT is that the thai's are generally a lot weaker. When the skill level is so low like it is at this level, bigger foreign girls find it a lot easier to just impose themselves and take the fight.

The MT angle with Lisboa reminds me a lot of Melly Martinez and how they were touting her as a kickboxing world champ, when all she'd done was won a Wako day tournament against some cans. Lisboa's accomplishment's don't even seem as good as that.

The MT stuff actually leans into my I'd pick Jess over Lisboa. Jess usually has pretty decent gameplans. She doesn't try to prove herself by fighting opponent's at their own game. We saw this against Edwards. She could've stood and traded against a dangerous striker, but knew Edwards can't defend tds and just made it a wrestling match.

If Jess and her team have done any sort of research again, they'll know Lisboa will most likely want to strike. They'll know that Jess is slightly shorter as well. I think they'd be dumb not to plan for Jess to duck under and either td outright or clinch towards the cage and just win a boring fight as she's done in the past.

And even if this Lisboa is somehow miles better at MT, this is an MMA fight. Girls aren't standing in front of you to trade and strikes and wrestling is involved. Jess could make her striking very timid very quick with early grappling.

Also, Jess does fine in grinding fights that go the distance, meanwhile in 7 fights Lisboa has only gone beyond round 1 just twice. In one she lost to the only girl of any skill she's fought outside of Norma Dumont, and in the other she took almost 3 rounds to get a corner stoppage against a girl who was making her MMA debut (she never fought MMA again) and seemed to just be a kickboxer.

This feels like a lay up to get Clark back on track. I mean maybe she's dumb and just tries to strike and gets caught, but otherwise I don't see how she doesn't just grind Lisboa out or finish her on the mat.

Girls like Lisboa with the low quality record and who barely see a second round don't seem to ever do well once they're under the big lights.

Jess is 2.00, which seems wild to me. Coming off 2 losses is a bad look for Clark, but the level of her losses is totally unlike anything Lisboa has faced.
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I hear you and would very much like to keep Jess on the roster but she has some bad momentum on her side coming two first round losses. Not like Julia looked too hot in her run either going 1-4 with a pretty horrific beatdown loss to Chandler.
Also:
https://www.mmafighting.com/2023/5/...rsial-muay-thai-loss-valentina-shevchenko-mma

On the fence here. More likely to go with Jess as she is tough on the feet and probably wont get submitted?
 
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