UFC 301 PBP

[Georges Hefner]

Those cuts weren’t from scar tissue lmao.

Honestly I am an idiot. I have no diplomas. My IQ is low. Im not good at solving problems. I graduated a year late. Im way too dumb for college. I think its from smoking weed in 7th grade but Im not sure. I used to be very smart. But my intuition is above average. I know when people lie and I know whos a fraud. My last 2 losing bets I literally said Pereira would beat Hill and Guskov beats Spann. But i changed my bet last minute because I listened to other predictors. My stupid brain always sabotages

 

[Dooze]

Just caught up after falling asleep around the Shore fight.

Pretty good event for me, won on pantoja, aldo @ 2.25 ( mad odds), Smith @ 5 (ridiculous given Petrinos fight with Tyson Pedro being his last fight), Brito @ 1.58 and Craig fight ITD @ 1.50.

Lost on Brenmer and Claudio bets but ended up about 15u overall at first glance.

 

[Stat_Collector]

looking back now Jose Aldo, Anthony Smith, And Alessandro Costa all had better resumes, better decision ,ko, sub, ratings across the board.

Sometimes leaning heavy on footage over records back fires. Record capping should always be the first disqualifier of any dog play or fav.

 

[mkess101]

looking back now Jose Aldo, Anthony Smith, And Alessandro Costa all had better resumes, better decision ,ko, sub, ratings across the board.

Sometimes leaning heavy on footage over records back fires. Record capping should always be the first disqualifier of any dog play or fav.

The problem with that is when fighters have clearly gone past their prime. And admittedly, that's sometimes hard to really know. We watch them, we weigh what they've done vs what we've seen recently, etc.
IMO Aldo I have to agree with you because he'd never shown a true drop-off. The layoff, the questions about how invested he really was...we should've known that a guy wired like him wasn't just gonna show up for a paycheck.
Smith...IDK. I'd say maybe the red flag of that fight could've possibly been Petrino's lackluster win vs Pedro in his last fight more than Smith's pedigree. Because we'd seen Anthony look slower, less durable, etc lately. And honestly, that was just a really dumb mistake by Petrino. Once he shot and picked Smith up and Smith got a tight guillotine, that takedown HAS to be abandoned. You stay upright and fight the hands, and Smith let's go. He can't get the leverage to squeeze enough if Petrino stays upright and Smith would burn his arms out if he tried (and he's a vet so likely would just let go). I chalk that up to Petrino shitting the bed more than Smith outperforming his expectations. Honestly, I think Smith would agree if he was wearing his analyst's hat.

 

[Stat_Collector]

The problem with that is when fighters have clearly gone past their prime. And admittedly, that's sometimes hard to really know. We watch them, we weigh what they've done vs what we've seen recently, etc.
IMO Aldo I have to agree with you because he'd never shown a true drop-off. The layoff, the questions about how invested he really was...we should've known that a guy wired like him wasn't just gonna show up for a paycheck.
Smith...IDK. I'd say maybe the red flag of that fight could've possibly been Petrino's lackluster win vs Pedro in his last fight more than Smith's pedigree. Because we'd seen Anthony look slower, less durable, etc lately. And honestly, that was just a really dumb mistake by Petrino. Once he shot and picked Smith up and Smith got a tight guillotine, that takedown HAS to be abandoned. You stay upright and fight the hands, and Smith let's go. He can't get the leverage to squeeze enough if Petrino stays upright and Smith would burn his arms out if he tried (and he's a vet so likely would just let go). I chalk that up to Petrino shitting the bed more than Smith outperforming his expectations. Honestly, I think Smith would agree if he was wearing his analyst's hat.

but look at some of the guys smith has subbed in the past, It' not a one off sub win for Smith. Vitor didn't display the traits of a high level prospect.

if he had earlier finishers , kos or subs, and was putting jon jones esque performances. I think this is where the lesser resume blossom.

Like Tuporia and Volk. The higher finish rates and good perfect performances are the best indicators of a fighter making the jump in competition and will level out to his proper rankings. If I look back at Petrino's performances, some looked like c grade performance.

Just the decision on Anton should have eliminated the potential for a finish on Smith. Roundtree ko was just one vet beating another. Anyways i think passing on petrino was a decent play for me, just wish i saw smith's value.

 

[mkess101]

but look at some of the guys smith has subbed in the past, It' not a one off sub win for Smith. Vitor didn't display the traits of a high level prospect.

if he had earlier finishers , kos or subs, and was putting jon jones esque performances. I think this is where the lesser resume blossom.

Like Tuporia and Volk. The higher finish rates and good perfect performances are the best indicators of a fighter making the jump in competition and will level out to his proper rankings. If I look back at Petrino's performances, some looked like c grade performance.

Just the decision on Anton should have eliminated the potential for a finish on Smith. Roundtree ko was just one vet beating another. Anyways i think passing on petrino was a decent play for me, just wish i saw smith's value.

It's really hard to know when a guy has just hit that wall in their career where their body can't do what it used to. When the reflexes slow enough that punches land that never would've previously, etc. We speculate and sometimes we get it right and sometimes not. I think the people who bet Petrino were mostly fading Smith as opposed to really buying Petrino as a legit top tier guy.
We've seen guys just fall off that cliff (the BJ Penn scenario) where they went from elite to losing to low level guys enough times where we THINK we know all the signs. But sometimes, we're wrong.

 

[Dooze]

but look at some of the guys smith has subbed in the past, It' not a one off sub win for Smith. Vitor didn't display the traits of a high level prospect.

if he had earlier finishers , kos or subs, and was putting jon jones esque performances. I think this is where the lesser resume blossom.

Like Tuporia and Volk. The higher finish rates and good perfect performances are the best indicators of a fighter making the jump in competition and will level out to his proper rankings. If I look back at Petrino's performances, some looked like c grade performance.

Just the decision on Anton should have eliminated the potential for a finish on Smith. Roundtree ko was just one vet beating another. Anyways i think passing on petrino was a decent play for me, just wish i saw smith's value.

Agree and disagree with parts of this.

Agree it's not just a one off type sub - he's shown throughout his career that he is crafty and a genuine submission threat, and extremely opportunistic.

I disagree that Petrinos past performances eliminated the chance of a finish for him - ultimately I think people bet Petrino based on him having genuine KO power - he has finished most of his opponents this way and you can see the power he carries when he throws - Smith can take a decent amount of punishment but I think Petrino absolutely had the power to stop him, maybe not sleep him but certainly hurt and get a stoppage.

In my head I had it capped as close-ish to a pickem, maybe Petrino as a slight favourite just based off Smith looking like he's approaching the twilight of his career, slowing down a bit, being less durable and it being in Brazil.

That said, I think the level of competition both have been fighting was in Smiths favour, he's a more technical fighter and the Pedro fight showed me quite a lot I didn't like in Petrino despite his physical attributes. Given the odds I think it was an obvious dog or pass fight and given I thought smith had 3 paths to victory I was happy to go for it.

I'd say one thing I'm fairly good at compared to other aspects of gambling is identifying when someone is done. I've definitely got it wrong a couple of times thinking they weren't when they were, but usually manage to get it right when not to fade them. Had Aldo on this card and quite a few times over the past few years where there's been groupthink leaning that way, Smith, Holloway, Hooker and Barboza a few times and quite a few others.

I'd say one of the key points of that is the competition they're facing but also odds - I think there's points where it's worth fading on the basis you think they're done but many times it happens the person their facing is making a big step up in competition, the veteran hasn't shown that they are well and truly done, have valid paths to victory and can be found as moderate to large dogs.

I think if a fighter is coming towards the end of their career there are times it's worth fading them, usually though those moments tend to be when their opponent themselves are proven, when there has been a demonstratable drop off and usually when the odds are fairly close or the vet is actually a favourite, not when the prospect is a 1.2 favourite over them.

 

[Georges Hefner]

Its been exactly a year since my Sherdog inception. I just want to say thank you to all my fans who supported me. One thing Im most proud of is that I never let the fame and money get to my head. I always stayed grounded since day one. I never sold my soul to be in the position I am. I never forgot my roots. They said I was a one hit wonder but I followed it through. I wouldn’t even be where I am if it weren’t for the ones before me. I show respect where it’s due. I pay homage to the older generation who paved the way for me. Their influence is evident in my career and I’m grateful for that. I would be nothing if I never met BigSteve, PuertoRican, Smvr, StatCollector, Mkess, Endlesscritic, Guld, TeamVamos, Guesswhosback, Tebowned, Thesnake101, Sonhow, just a couple of names even my adversary Captain Cheesecake

 

[Stat_Collector]

It's really hard to know when a guy has just hit that wall in their career where their body can't do what it used to. When the reflexes slow enough that punches land that never would've previously, etc. We speculate and sometimes we get it right and sometimes not. I think the people who bet Petrino were mostly fading Smith as opposed to really buying Petrino as a legit top tier guy.
We've seen guys just fall off that cliff (the BJ Penn scenario) where they went from elite to losing to low level guys enough times where we THINK we know all the signs. But sometimes, we're wrong.

WHen you weigh the risk and reward, it checks out. One ko loss by a heavy puncher in a heavier weight class should not have caused the rush to judgement.

Agree and disagree with parts of this.

Agree it's not just a one off type sub - he's shown throughout his career that he is crafty and a genuine submission threat, and extremely opportunistic.

I disagree that Petrinos past performances eliminated the chance of a finish for him - ultimately I think people bet Petrino based on him having genuine KO power - he has finished most of his opponents this way and you can see the power he carries when he throws - Smith can take a decent amount of punishment but I think Petrino absolutely had the power to stop him, maybe not sleep him but certainly hurt and get a stoppage.

In my head I had it capped as close-ish to a pickem, maybe Petrino as a slight favourite just based off Smith looking like he's approaching the twilight of his career, slowing down a bit, being less durable and it being in Brazil.

That said, I think the level of competition both have been fighting was in Smiths favour, he's a more technical fighter and the Pedro fight showed me quite a lot I didn't like in Petrino despite his physical attributes. Given the odds I think it was an obvious dog or pass fight and given I thought smith had 3 paths to victory I was happy to go for it.

I'd say one thing I'm fairly good at compared to other aspects of gambling is identifying when someone is done. I've definitely got it wrong a couple of times thinking they weren't when they were, but usually manage to get it right when not to fade them. Had Aldo on this card and quite a few times over the past few years where there's been groupthink leaning that way, Smith, Holloway, Hooker and Barboza a few times and quite a few others.

I'd say one of the key points of that is the competition they're facing but also odds - I think there's points where it's worth fading on the basis you think they're done but many times it happens the person their facing is making a big step up in competition, the veteran hasn't shown that they are well and truly done, have valid paths to victory and can be found as moderate to large dogs.

I think if a fighter is coming towards the end of their career there are times it's worth fading them, usually though those moments tend to be when their opponent themselves are proven, when there has been a demonstratable drop off and usually when the odds are fairly close or the vet is actually a favourite, not when the prospect is a 1.2 favourite over them.

Vitor went 50/50 in significant strike in about every fight he was in, he's not there yet to compete with the top guys. I do believe when you're -400 , you better have gotten early round kos. He didn't meet those criteria, he just looked big and scary, that is why he got those odds.

 

[mkess101]

WHen you weigh the risk and reward, it checks out. One ko loss by a heavy puncher in a heavier weight class should not have caused the rush to judgement.


Vitor went 50/50 in significant strike in about every fight he was in, he's not there yet to compete with the top guys. I do believe when you're -400 , you better have gotten early round kos. He didn't meet those criteria, he just looked big and scary, that is why he got those odds.

It's very possible Smith hasn't fallen off that badly. I'm not sure this win cements that though because of how it played out. Petrino made just a really stupid mistake. Smith has some sub wins that are slick, I'm not discounting his grappling in a general sense. But this was him simply grabbing a guillotine as a way to shut down a TD attempt and his opponent inexplicably didn't abandon it even with his neck completely secured.

I do 100% agree that people actually betting Petrino at -400 or whatever were asking to get burned. He hasn't earned that kind of line vs anyone with a pulse, even a guy we're worried might be a bit shot. I passed on betting the fight and even with Smith cashing as a big dog, I don't feel like I missed something super obvious with him. Even just fading Petrino as too big a favorite...I never saw anything that showed he was likely to make that type of glaring grappling mistake. But, now we know LOL.

 

[Thesnake101]

It's very possible Smith hasn't fallen off that badly. I'm not sure this win cements that though because of how it played out. Petrino made just a really stupid mistake. Smith has some sub wins that are slick, I'm not discounting his grappling in a general sense. But this was him simply grabbing a guillotine as a way to shut down a TD attempt and his opponent inexplicably didn't abandon it even with his neck completely secured.

I do 100% agree that people actually betting Petrino at -400 or whatever were asking to get burned. He hasn't earned that kind of line vs anyone with a pulse, even a guy we're worried might be a bit shot. I passed on betting the fight and even with Smith cashing as a big dog, I don't feel like I missed something super obvious with him. Even just fading Petrino as too big a favorite...I never saw anything that showed he was likely to make that type of glaring grappling mistake. But, now we know LOL.

The u1.5 was +140 for that fight, which imo was prime value, granted I expected Vitor to catch Smith early. Of course I do see how some people might've thought this would be one of those fights where Anthony lays on his back and doesn't do much except survive, and indeed it seemed like Petrino was aiming for that before getting ensnared in a guillotine.

I did see some people speculating Smith might've fucked up Vitor's leg with a kick, which prompted him to do what he did, so we'll see if there's any injury coming to light in a few days.