UFC 229: McGregor vs Khabib

[Wiktoruspro]

He is not a lock, i think Holtzman gona win, Holtzman have the extra strength to defend the TD and have the tools to get the win on the feet and Im the clinch

Alan isnt a lock but he should win this fight, Holtzman isnt great. He is maybe strong but Alans pressure and takedowns will make the difference.

 

[Naught2Sixty]

I'd say the opposite. I like Pettis ITD a lot since Ferguson's there to be hit, but I can't see many situations in which Ferg doesn't win the decision if it gets there since he'll probably double/triple Pettis' volume and consistently be the aggressor.

Fair enough but I don't see Showtime as a threat with his hands and other than the awkward kick Lando landed on Tony's head, hes blocked many headkicks and kicks to the body. Hard fight to read for me.

 

[SeverianB]

If Waterson ruins this parlay than I will stop flaping to her pictures

Close fight, I wouldn't bet on it. Although I'd give an edge to Waterson.

I've watched all of Herrig and Waterson's recent fights over the past few days.

Herrig has better standup. She was able to stand toe to toe with Karolina, Casey and Grasso and was better than all of them in that area, in my opinion. Waterson on the other hand, just doesn't have the upper body strength to do enough damage or take it. Casey wobbled her.

Herrig is way overrated in the grappling, though. Casey and Karolina were able to show her up quite easily there and they are by no means BJJ wizards.

Waterson has the best takedown percentage in the division. Yes, better than Suarez who is #2. She also has a lot of submission victories.

I think the chance of Waterson taking this to the ground and winning there is higher than Herrig's chance of keeping it standing and winning.

The line on this fight is correct. Super close. Don't bet the house.

 

[lifeisgood12345]

Fair enough but I don't see Showtime as a threat with his hands and other than the awkward kick Lando landed on Tony's head, hes blocked many headkicks and kicks to the body. Hard fight to read for me.

Even Kevin Lee briefly dropped Tony with strikes. Trujillo hurt him as well. His chin is good but not that good. Pettis just needs to stun him and finish with a choke, IMO very doable with his kicks and Tony’s poor striking defense.

 

[Wiktoruspro]

Close fight, I wouldn't bet on it. Although I'd give an edge to Waterson.

I've watched all of Herrig and Waterson's recent fights over the past few days.

Herrig has better standup. She was able to stand toe to toe with Karolina, Casey and Grasso and was better than all of them in that area, in my opinion. Waterson on the other hand, just doesn't have the upper body strength to do enough damage or take it. Casey wobbled her.

Herrig is way overrated in the grappling, though. Casey and Karolina were able to show her up quite easily there and they are by no means BJJ wizards.

Waterson has the best takedown percentage in the division. Yes, better than Suarez who is #2. She also has a lot of submission victories.

I think the chance of Waterson taking this to the ground and winning there is higher than Herrig's chance of keeping it standing and winning.

The line on this fight is correct. Super close. Don't bet the house.

Thank you for your opinon, awesome avatar btw (flap flap)
You overrated her takedown stats comparing her to Tatiana which has 18/22 takedowns and Michelle got 10/12
I trust Felice tdd to hold on and and get takedowns herself.

 

[zeckdo]

Reyes has beaten 3 cab drivers, we've seen no ground game whatsoever.

OSP was just able to eat massive shots from Pedro that should have KO'd anyone, and still sub him 90 seconds later, I honestly think this fight has a great chance of playing out similarly. I know it was Pedro who (stupidly) initiated the takedown, but in Reyes's fight with Cannonier, he attempted a random takedown, got stuffed and ate some punches trying too wrestle, he has so little experience (30 min pro fight time) and not much killer instinct or composure, when he hurt Cannonier he was very wild and started spamming strikes hoping one would connect. You need composure and precision to finish OSP.

Clear value on OSP at +175. Would hit his sub prop at anything better than +300 as well.

 

[GrantSorenson]

Never thought I would say this...but I think Conor has value at +odds.

Khabib's only great win is against RDA, and wrestlers always smash BJJ guys. Colby Covington also beat RDA, and I wouldn't bet him against Conor in a million years.

His wins vs Barboza, MJ, and Iaquinta were all comfortable, but Conor is light years better than any of those guys. He has also beat 5 guys who are better than all 3-- Alvarez, Aldo, Poirier, Mendes, and Holloway.

Conor will spend some time on his back, but he doesn't need a huge time window to finish. Only needed 30 seconds at the end of round 2 to KO Mendes. And Khabib is such a non-finisher, Conor should have plenty of windows to KO over course of 5 round fight.

Also Khabib's takedowns not the same as Mendes, who is much more explosive. Just bc Mendes got there doesn't mean Khabib will. Not that Eddie's wrestling is nearly on Khabib's level, but Conor's takedown D was excellent in that fight.

Only concern is that Conor is always drunk or coked up lately, but he is only 30 and I doubt he is completely washed. Maybe he's a bit worse than before, but he's the better athlete, 4" better reach, better finisher, has a better hit list. Those are a lot of favorable points for a +140 dog.

Interesting point about Colby vs McGregor. I'd be max betting Colby in that one.

While I'm extremely heavy on Khabib and very confident, it's good to hear counter arguments. Saying that, I still wouldn't back McGregor with stolen money.

 

[Wiktoruspro]

Interesting point about Colby vs McGregor. I'd be max betting Colby in that one.

While I'm extremely heavy on Khabib and very confident, it's good to hear counter arguments. Saying that, I still wouldn't back McGregor with stolen money.

Colby would ragdoll Conor like falling dead corpses in shooter games

 

[Sadistics]

I struggle to see how Holtz can win this fight. Pillow fists and not great anywhere. Patrick is a step up in competition by large margin. finally he is fighting someone who belongs in the UFC. I'm thinking about ballsy move and parlaying all my bets with patrick. He is better everywhere and it's not even close

I favour Patrick but be aware no one has been able to hold Holtzman down

 

[zeckdo]

I think Volkov should be -300.

We know Lewis's back is always a problem, we just saw him have the lowest output fight in history. Pretty sure he claimed his back "was acting up" as an excuse for how bad the fight was. Lewis said his back was back to 100% on 8/25/18, but honestly, I don't buy it.

On the other hand we saw Volkov show one of the best guards in MMA history, completely neutralizing the best HW grappler of all time, eventually knocking him out on the feet in the 4th round.

I've only bet on a moderate favorite once, -150, I lost, but I'm considering making a play on Volkov at -170.

Volkov will control the striking, expect him to butcher Lewis with a jab, and Volkov will keep Lewis in his guard if he gets taken down.
Mayyybe Lewis will catch Volkov and rock him, mayyyybe Lewis will implement a wrestling and GnP gameplan for a decision, but unlikely in my mind.

 

[Wiktoruspro]

I favour Patrick but be aware no one has been able to hold Holtzman down

Besides Emmett he fought only bums in the ufc.

 

[lifeisgood12345]

Interesting point about Colby vs McGregor. I'd be max betting Colby in that one.

While I'm extremely heavy on Khabib and very confident, it's good to hear counter arguments. Saying that, I still wouldn't back McGregor with stolen money.

Colby vs Conor could go either way to be sure. It’s just tough for non-finishing non-striking wrestlers bc they are in great danger any moment conor isn’t on his back.

25 mins is a loooong time to dodge Conor’s left. Nate Diaz did it, but he had a low weight cut at 170, a great chin, and 3” reach advantage + good striking to keep Conor at distance. And he even got dropped a couple of times.

 

[raketmannen]

I think Volkov should be -300.

We know Lewis's back is always a problem, we just saw him have the lowest output fight in history. Pretty sure he claimed his back "was acting up" as an excuse for how bad the fight was. Lewis said his back was back to 100% on 8/25/18, but honestly, I don't buy it.

On the other hand we saw Volkov show one of the best guards in MMA history, completely neutralizing the best HW grappler of all time, eventually knocking him out on the feet in the 4th round.

I've only bet on a moderate favorite once, -150, I lost, but I'm considering making a play on Volkov at -170.

Volkov will control the striking, expect him to butcher Lewis with a jab, and Volkov will keep Lewis in his guard if he gets taken down.
Mayyybe Lewis will catch Volkov and rock him, mayyyybe Lewis will implement a wrestling and GnP gameplan for a decision, but unlikely in my mind.

Lewis dosen't wrestle, he either gets taken down and reverses position or drops someone and then ends up on top. I think Volkov could chew Lewis up from a distance with jabs and teep kicks to the body, hell Travis Browne was completely dominating him untill he got stuck against the cage.
I've bet Lewis in his past 5 fights but got 3u on Volkov here, -300 would be a reasonable price since it's still heavyweight and Lewis has showed so many times that he just finds ways to win

 

[raketmannen]

Colby vs Conor could go either way to be sure. It’s just tough for non-finishing non-striking wrestlers bc they are in great danger any moment conor isn’t on his back.

25 mins is a loooong time to dodge Conor’s left. Nate Diaz did it, but he had a low weight cut at 170, a great chin, and 3” reach advantage + good striking to keep Conor at distance. And he even got dropped a couple of times.

What do you mean Nate Diaz did it? He took Conors best shot multiple times, and sure he got dropped by them in the early rounds, wouldn't call that dodging it. I think Conors power is way overblown though, has he turned off the lights on anyone completely except Aldo in the UFC? He's extremely precise and has great killer instinct to follow up and end the fight once he hurts you, but the notion that it's always game over once his left hand touches someone is just wrong (which was the selling point many had to pick Conor or at least give him a shot to win against Mayweather)

 

[lifeisgood12345]

What do you mean Nate Diaz did it? He took Conors best shot multiple times, and sure he got dropped by them in the early rounds, wouldn't call that dodging it. I think Conors power is way overblown though, has he turned off the lights on anyone completely except Aldo in the UFC? He's extremely precise and has great killer instinct to follow up and end the fight once he hurts you, but the notion that it's always game over once his left hand touches someone is just wrong (which was the selling point many had to pick Conor or at least give him a shot to win against Mayweather)

The great thing about Conor is he is not just powerful. He is also technical, accurate, and consistently lands volume. The fact that he is an elite points striker AND has the power is what makes him so dangerous and consistent at getting the kill shot.

And that one punch vs Aldo means a lot. Nobody thought it was even possible to do that to Aldo before Conor did it. Even when Max finished him later, it took loads of cumulative damage

 

[Larthus]

Never thought I would say this...but I think Conor has value at +odds.

Khabib's only great win is against RDA, and wrestlers always smash BJJ guys. Colby Covington also beat RDA, and I wouldn't bet him against Conor in a million years.

His wins vs Barboza, MJ, and Iaquinta were all comfortable, but Conor is light years better than any of those guys. He has also beat 5 guys who are better than all 3-- Alvarez, Aldo, Poirier, Mendes, and Holloway.

Conor will spend some time on his back, but he doesn't need a huge time window to finish. Only needed 30 seconds at the end of round 2 to KO Mendes. And Khabib is such a non-finisher, Conor should have plenty of windows to KO over course of 5 round fight.

Also Khabib's takedowns not the same as Mendes, who is much more explosive. Just bc Mendes got there doesn't mean Khabib will. Not that Eddie's wrestling is nearly on Khabib's level, but Conor's takedown D was excellent in that fight.

Only concern is that Conor is always drunk or coked up lately, but he is only 30 and I doubt he is completely washed. Maybe he's a bit worse than before, but he's the better athlete, 4" better reach, better finisher, has a better hit list. Those are a lot of favorable points for a +140 dog.

Fam what? Did you watch the Barboza, MJ, or Al fight?

Ffs, 1) he outstruck Barboza 89 - 25 and won the fight 30-24, 30-25, & 30-25. Dominant victory.
2) he outstruck MJ 94-19 and although he won by kimura he was easily on his way to another 30-24, 30-25 & 30-25
3) he outstruck Al 134 - 34, and was dominating until he decided to test his striking in the last one which made it look less so but he still won by a completely one-side unanimous decision (50-43, 50-44, 50-43)
All of the above metrics suggest complete one-side domination.

You're right, he ragdolled RDA, but he only outstruck him 36-20 in a 3 round fight (MJ & Barboza were also 3 rounders, and the striking differential is starkly different)

This indicates that 1) not only did he dominate RDA, but he also dominated every fighter you listed as a "comfortable performance" and 2) he is improving over time in all aspects, against fighters with an eclectic range of skill sets, which cannot be proven for Conor because he hasn't had a significant test since Diaz.

As far as him beating fighters light years better than ones Khabib has:
- MJ starched Poirier prior to fighting Khabib
- Aldo was a 13 second wash which doesn't tell us anything in the grand scheme of things
- Alvarez was completely mindfucked by Conor and would lose to any number of current lightweight contenders. He would probably go to a close decision with Barboza for example.
- Holloway is the only one who is markedly better than anyone Khabib has fought & Conor caught him when he was young and on the come-up, the current iteration of Holloway would probably push Conor's shit in.

Khabib can hold top position against Rockhold & wrestle on an even playing field with DC(!!!) Conor cannot train for one year in wrestling and expect to be able to defend against someone as strong and dominant as Khabib. Conor has made his bones cutting massive amounts of weight to 145 & fighting guys who are smaller and physically weaker. Similar to Darren Till. But there's levels to this shit. If he doesn't KO Khabib within one round, he's going to lose. No way he wins a decision.

note - I would 100% bet Covington over Conor. Like, take out loans to be on Colby type of betting. I would convince everyone I know to bet Colby. He's a big, talented welterweight

 

[zeckdo]

Lewis dosen't wrestle, he either gets taken down and reverses position or drops someone and then ends up on top. I think Volkov could chew Lewis up from a distance with jabs and teep kicks to the body, hell Travis Browne was completely dominating him untill he got stuck against the cage.
I've bet Lewis in his past 5 fights but got 3u on Volkov here, -300 would be a reasonable price since it's still heavyweight and Lewis has showed so many times that he just finds ways to win

question is, should I put my action in now, or should I wait and see if this upward line movement continues?

 

[zeckdo]

O Malley is fighting a dude with jiu jitsu tatted across his chest... I would bet his opponent at evens, let alone +260...

 

[Larthus]

I think Volkov should be -300.

We know Lewis's back is always a problem, we just saw him have the lowest output fight in history. Pretty sure he claimed his back "was acting up" as an excuse for how bad the fight was. Lewis said his back was back to 100% on 8/25/18, but honestly, I don't buy it.

On the other hand we saw Volkov show one of the best guards in MMA history, completely neutralizing the best HW grappler of all time, eventually knocking him out on the feet in the 4th round.

I've only bet on a moderate favorite once, -150, I lost, but I'm considering making a play on Volkov at -170.

Volkov will control the striking, expect him to butcher Lewis with a jab, and Volkov will keep Lewis in his guard if he gets taken down.
Mayyybe Lewis will catch Volkov and rock him, mayyyybe Lewis will implement a wrestling and GnP gameplan for a decision, but unlikely in my mind.

Agree with this but I'm done making logical arguments against Lewis. After the Tybura fight, I realized there are otherworldly forces at play here that are guiding this man to a HW championship lol

 

[ill800]

Mcgregor really not getting a lot of credit for washing a who’s who of elite fighters.

People think he’s just going to let khabib and his terrible standup take him down and lay on him for 5 rds.

Everybody’s got a gameplan until they get punched in the face.

I dunno how people can be supremely confident in khabib just because he can wrestle. Mendes could wrestle too.