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Discussion in 'MMA Betting Discussion' started by Ukram, Jan 20, 2018.
Good to see you still here
Thanks. I don't post near as much anymore. It just depends how bored I am at work. IMO, the forum is a lot more close minded. People have already made their pick, and they aren't interesting in hearing the other side of the coin. Then it almost appears as people are just trying to justify their bet more and more with hyperbole in the reasoning. A great example this weekend is looking at Rampage vs. Chael.
Yeah Davis had a hip injury throughout camp and in the fight.
For everyone missing JB, you can follow him here: http://www.betmma.tips/NextHypeGamblin
I’m pretty stubborn with my picks. I believe that I need to make mistakes too learn and to actually get good at weighing arguments. So I usually stick with my original pick even after reading good counter arguments, but I use forum opinion a lot to weigh the size of my bet, so I really value differing opinions even if that does not often appear show in my actions. I’m pretty damn happy I’ve been mostly betting only 0.5 units on lots of the fights this year when going against the arguments of stronger bettors on this forum.
I'm very similar with mine. Once I've made up my mind, I'm going to make the play. After I've made the play, I don't really feel the need to talk about it much unless it seems like the entire forum seems the opposite of it. Actually, the times that I'm most outspoken on this forum nowadays is when it seems like groupthink is going on. I do think that happens often here, and you see some fairly large plays when that is happening. People get buried like this last weekend's Bellator.
Hah, I've been caught by those groupthink hype trains few times myself. I started getting caught by the Rampage hype after reading few messages, but then I told myself, that I have a zero chance to cap that fight in any reasonable/non-biased way.
I'm still here, O!
You are in the infrequent group now!
That's the way to go about it, imo. Nothing I hate more than somebody who leaned one way going into a fight then comes back and complains about being talked out of that play b/c other ppl were against them. have some fucking nuts and stick with your lean. If you want to lessen the play b/c you respect a few others who are on the other side and you want to temper the play b/c you might be missing something. That's perfectly fine, imo. But when you completely bail on your lean and go to the other side, is not a good look. Then to comeback and complain that other ppl forced you to do it and it's their fault you made your play. I fucking HATE that shit.
Same goes with tailing bets. I've never complained when I lose a bet if I tailed it. It makes no sense, guys here are giving out plays and reasoning for their plays, I'm not gonna bitch if I want some action and follow a bet and it ends up losing. You're an asshole if you do that, imo.
That's true, this place has changed a lot from the old days. I know the new guys hate when we bring it up but this forum has gotten much more argumentative b/c some dudes get offended if you have a different opinion than them, esp if they're big on a play. A few years ago it was a way more relaxed environment.
Then it's like, alright agree to disagree, no hard feelings, and they still are salty about it. I'm not the most mature dude in the world but I can have a big play and discuss why I like it and not catch feelings b/c other ppl disagree with me. I have way worse shit to deal with than somebody not liking a play that I have. Not that I've never done itt, I'm sure I have but I rarely do it. Unless somebody's a dick about it, then I might've resorted to the petty shit talking few times, lol.
Totally agree shit is annoying
I agree. The forum can still be helpful at times, but not near as often as before. I think it's the rise to how many people are "serious gamblers" spending hours in their deep chambers studying tape and making notes on the whiteboard.
As a dude who's new to the forum and to betting in general I appreciate this line of thinking. I've seen this happen a bunch especially reading through some of the older threads. I've definitely been swayed off of a lean and tailed losing bets but I've never once complained about losing and I hope I never do complain. It's a part of the game and you have no one to blame but yourself. You ultimately pulled the trigger on the bet. I'll stay quiet marginally because I don't want to be harassed (for lack of a better term) for having a different opinion or being blown off like I don't know anything. I shouldn't feel this way but I do. Just sharing some honesty.
You're on the right track then. Cool of you not to go that route, I've seen many ppl do that with the whole bitching about plays after the fact. Take your time, for all the nostalgia I have for the older regs, there are some very knowledgeable and cool newer guys here as well.
By all means take a shot and give your opinion if you have a strong lean, just make sure you give some good reasoning behind it. If somebody's a dick to you for giving your opinion and you give reasons to have that opinion, then fuck them.
The betting aspect with br management and differentiating the size of plays is another convo, but keep to the basics and you'll be okay in the long run. As Ez says, it's a marathon not a sprint, you kind of have to learn that over time, tho. Most ppl, including myself, still chase losses when the going's rough, the more you stay away from that shit the better. I still have trouble w/ chasing too, tbh, it's a really hard habit to kick but I've gotten much better.
I appreciate the insight. I know I can learn a lot from everyone here and I hope maybe I can help everyone get a bit better myself. I think sometimes we forget we're not fighting each other we're fighting the bookies.
You're acting like Chael came out and absolutely nutted on Rampage. It was a 29-28, and the first time in Chael's career that he successfully beat a bigger wrestler. If Rampage doesn't let Chael up after that slow in the first round we're likely all singing a different tune on that fight where Rampage wins by either KO1 or 29-28. It was people dumping big on a 1.6, not a 1.15 favorite.
Chael won a fairly comfortable decision. My point is that everyone and their mother was on Rampage without looking at obvious red flags. People even said after the fight that they played Rampage because it seemed like everyone was on Rampage. It's happened on this forum often, but a lot more in the last couple years. I can't really think of a better example of showing flaws in this forum besides that fight. You have all of these people talking about his physique pre-fight like it's an asset, and then bitching and moaning about it after the fight. It's almost like a snowball. A few people like a play on Rampage, others jump on, and then more follow. At that point, the entire discussion becomes just looking for justifications for the play such as "Rampage looks great" , "Rampage is clearly motivated", "Sonnen doesn't care", etc. There were many red flags pre-fight with Rampage.
I loved playing Rampage at -150. Human nature for people to look for validation from others, or go with something when they see everyone jumping on. Example crypto currency, the FOMO when something is pumping is always there. It isn’t the “forum” it’s people being people.
Sure, to an extent. This forum has become like that on steroids. You'll also notice post fight that people who didn't play Rampage or played Sonnen will chime in, but they don't do it prefight because it's just a mob mentality of people repeating the same shit again and again. There is no point in bringing up the other side in that situation because people don't listen.
A lot of the old posters have stated why they don't post in here anymore, and it's always the same. It used to be discuss your potential play, make the play with your reasoning, and discuss it if someone wants to. Now it's people need to talk about that same play over 20+ posts of why their countless hours of tape study and algorithms make this the right play. If anyone expresses the other side, they feel the need to try to shut it down asap.