UFC 211 - Stipe vs JDS II - Dallas

[MacPherson911]

I am making a decent profit on mma, football and tennis.

LOL tennis? really?

 

[weedreference]

So you think that Andrade will out-point JJ in a striking match?

I appreciate your opinion, but in a striking match between these two, I am going to side with the 29-2 Kickboxer 13-0 MMA fighter to piece up Andrade on the feet.

Andrade has a very unique swarming striking style that you don't see often in MMA... even men's. You do see it often in pro boxing, though, and it's very effective against strikers who rely on range like JJ. Couple that with JJ having to worry about the grappling, and Andrade showing amazing cardio in her last fight, and I think JJ will have some major problems in this fight.

You may say that Andrade throws like Wanderlei, but I don't see it. She throws like a swarmer in boxing, and she has surprisingly good snap for a woman, which allows her to have good volume without gassing.

 

[MacPherson911]

I like him, he is a monster with his chain wrestling and his jiujitsu but if he can't get the takedown he is fucked up

but has he ever not gotten the takedown? I can't remember him ever not being able to get to the ground.

 

[iGnP]

but has he ever not gotten the takedown? I can't remember him ever not being able to get to the ground.

Not at WW. He never got Anderson or Weidman down. Munoz too I dont think. But yeah, that's mw

 

[weedreference]

One random play I'm making is the under 1.5 in the Poirier/Alvarez fight. This is just the second under 1.5 I've bet in my life, but at +185 with two chinny guys who have good precision/power and can't help brawling, there's no way it can be that bad of a bet.

 

[edole]

Andrade has a very unique swarming striking style that you don't see often in MMA... even men's. You do see it often in pro boxing, though, and it's very effective against strikers who rely on range like JJ. Couple that with JJ having to worry about the grappling, and Andrade showing amazing cardio in her last fight, and I think JJ will have some major problems in this fight.

You may say that Andrade throws like Wanderlei, but I don't see it. She throws like a swarmer in boxing, and she has surprisingly good snap for a woman, which allows her to have good volume without gassing.

fair enough. either way it should be a fun scrap

 

[mkess101]

Maia is definitely not zero threat striking. He has very functional boxing, especially to set up finding and closing the distance. Jorge will not change his stance. The dude has had a ridiculous amount of fights, and ALWAYS stands upright. I seriously doubt hes going to risk changing whats comfortable.

But that actually is true. At WW, NOBODY has been able to keep it standing with him. Thats 5 years of every single opponent ending up taken down by Maia.

Maia is officially a VERY #elite bet. Betting Maia gets you easy money + #elite HoF consideration. The Mas hype has gotten out of hand, and this is a PERFECT chance to take advantage of it. He sucks using his go-to jab vs lefties, he tends to over extend on the right straight which a guy like Mutante was able to take him down off of, and that upright stance is literally the worst stance to have to avoid a guy getting in on your hips and thats all Maia needs. He doesn't need to take down Mas the way jacare needs to take down all the guys he fights. Maia is a master at koala bearing dudes til they give up the back, or hell vs Brown he even pulled half guard from the clinch at one point for a sweep. Besides being a great wrestler, he has amazing variation with his grappling and ways to get it to the ground or take the back.

Not saying Mas is Shields, but did Maia take Shields down even once? I don't think he did. Granted, that fight was awhile ago.

I guess we'll see if Mas makes an adjustment. Maia's boxing is functional in that it distracts guys into letting him close distance sure, but when is the last time he landed a meaningful strike? I guess what I'm saying is that Mas could conceivably trust his chin and show Maia's striking zero respect at all. Keep his hands low and bait Maia into throwing strikes. Not saying he WILL do that (you're right in that it's very hard to change what you are after so long).

I do have a bet on Maia now at +115 in addition to Mas KO at +275 and +312. So other than Mas dec I'm covered.

 

[Joseph Budden]

Not saying Mas is Shields, but did Maia take Shields down even once? I don't think he did. Granted, that fight was awhile ago.

I guess we'll see if Mas makes an adjustment. Maia's boxing is functional in that it distracts guys into letting him close distance sure, but when is the last time he landed a meaningful strike? I guess what I'm saying is that Mas could conceivably trust his chin and show Maia's striking zero respect at all. Keep his hands low and bait Maia into throwing strikes. Not saying he WILL do that (you're right in that it's very hard to change what you are after so long).

I do have a bet on Maia now at +115 in addition to Mas KO at +275 and +312. So other than Mas dec I'm covered.

According to stats took Shields down 3 times but can't be bothered to rewatch when I remember it being boring af

I mean, Mas got dropped by Chiesa. He might wanna show some sort of defense. But either way, hes literally had an upright stance with hands by chin every fight in his entire, very long career. So yeah, doubtful he just completely changes, especially when youre asking him to be less defensively sound standing in this change.

 

[mkess101]

According to stats took Shields down 3 times but can't be bothered to rewatch when I remember it being boring af

I mean, Mas got dropped by Chiesa. He might wanna show some sort of defense. But either way, hes literally had an upright stance with hands by chin every fight in his entire, very long career. So yeah, doubtful he just completely changes, especially when youre asking him to be less defensively sound standing in this change.

I'd bet a ton that Chiesa has more pop than Maia LOL. But yeah, point taken.

 

[Roads55]

LOL tennis? really?

noob bettor confirmed

seriously wta (womens tennis) is like wmma on steroids lol, so many great opportunities to make money on tennis, not even just on the women, there's huge variables that aren't factored into the lines sometimes, from the weather, injuries, different surfaces, the list goes on and on. also it's a lot more common for players to effectively lose matches on purpose to save themselves for bigger tournaments. I've not been able to keep up with tennis properly for a couple of years but if i get the time it's my number 1 sport to expand betting into, also once you get into it the sport is awesome to watch if it's a good game, very underrated sport imo especially in america. the talent/skill level is absolutely phenomenal at times. it's a sport that requires tremendous focus and mental strength as the grandslam matches for instance can go on for 5+ hours of intense games.

 

[Roads55]

Andrade has a very unique swarming striking style that you don't see often in MMA... even men's. You do see it often in pro boxing, though, and it's very effective against strikers who rely on range like JJ. Couple that with JJ having to worry about the grappling, and Andrade showing amazing cardio in her last fight, and I think JJ will have some major problems in this fight.

You may say that Andrade throws like Wanderlei, but I don't see it. She throws like a swarmer in boxing, and she has surprisingly good snap for a woman, which allows her to have good volume without gassing.

I think there's a possible fallacy in suggesting andrade's cardio is now amazing, jj poses a much bigger threat on the feet than hill did, and additionally to being hit more effectively she may have to resort to grappling a lot more against jj which combined could cause andrade to gas a bit. no to mention the added pressure of being in such a highly touted and placed card on a huge ppv which could possibly result in an adrenaline dump.
I'm not saying this will happen but it's a surefire possibility to consider, I think i said before but hill and jojo are not on JJ's level.

 

[Shoulder]

If there is one fight I should be staying away from its Poirer Alvarez, both could get KO a minute in and I wouldn't be surprised.

I also wonder how Eddie took the humiliating loss in the biggest fight of his career, but then a fight on the undercard might be exactly what is needed.

If I have to take one I'll take DP due to less wear and tear, but still... total coin flip.

 

[piglord]

I also wonder how Eddie took the humiliating loss in the biggest fight of his career

this to me is the x factor. that fight was like being sodomised by your father on live tv. i can't see eddie coming in full of confidence after such a disaster.

i might throw half a unit on dp but honestly, who knows? both guys can get cracked.

 

[Shoulder]

this to me is the x factor. that fight was like being sodomised by your father on live tv. i can't see eddie coming in full of confidence after such a disaster.

i might throw half a unit on dp but honestly, who knows? both guys can get cracked.

I might just play either guy KO/TKO, Eddie might come in be donhis wrestling things, but if Poirer wins I'm sure it's ITD.

 

[DarkneT]

One random play I'm making is the under 1.5 in the Poirier/Alvarez fight. This is just the second under 1.5 I've bet in my life, but at +185 with two chinny guys who have good precision/power and can't help brawling, there's no way it can be that bad of a bet.

I feel you dude but Eddie does love that grind against the cage shit

 

[mkess101]

^^^I have watched a lot of tape of Eddie, and I recommend everyone specifically watch his fights with Cerrone, Conor, and even go back and watch his fights with Curran and Chandler. Eddie has a horrible habit (and I've pointed this out previously) of sitting in the pocket for an extra beat after he throws combos. He does it a lot, and he does it whether he lands or not. Imo it the the #1 reason he gets hit as much as he does. I don't know why he does it, the only thing I can think of is that when he was younger he was used to landing first and guys being hurt and finished (he won his first 10 pro fights via stoppage due to strikes) and those habits of him not have to worry about return fire just stayed with him. Against top tier competition and with the mileage he has, it's not a good tendency to have.

 

[t6p]

I might just play either guy KO/TKO, Eddie might come in be donhis wrestling things, but if Poirer wins I'm sure it's ITD.

Why do you think Poirier can't win a decision? He recently won decisions against Duffy and Miller. Despite what happened against McGregor, Eddie is a tough sob and if he can't get his wrestling going I don't think it's a forgone conclusion that DP puts him away.

That said, I'm on Alvarez here at evens. I just think he's the better all around fighter and I don't put as much stock into the Conor fight as some others. I mean, Conor finished both of these guys easily, I feel like he's simply on another level from most guys in the division. Also, Dustin has never been able to get over the hump against the top ranked guys and while some of his wins haven't been pretty to watch, Alvarez has beaten much better competition. I think Eddie grinds out a decision here. Although, DP does get dragged into a lot of brawls so I wouldn't be surprised to see it end early either way. Should be a fun fight. Really loving this card.

 

[t6p]

^^^I have watched a lot of tape of Eddie, and I recommend everyone specifically watch his fights with Cerrone, Conor, and even go back and watch his fights with Curran and Chandler. Eddie has a horrible habit (and I've pointed this out previously) of sitting in the pocket for an extra beat after he throws combos. He does it a lot, and he does it whether he lands or not. Imo it the the #1 reason he gets hit as much as he does. I don't know why he does it, the only thing I can think of is that when he was younger he was used to landing first and guys being hurt and finished (he won his first 10 pro fights via stoppage due to strikes) and those habits of him not have to worry about return fire just stayed with him. Against top tier competition and with the mileage he has, it's not a good tendency to have.

Are you on Poirier?

 

[Shoulder]

Why do you think Poirier can't win a decision? He recently won decisions against Duffy and Miller. Despite what happened against McGregor, Eddie is a tough sob and if he can't get his wrestling going I don't think it's a forgone conclusion that DP puts him away.

That said, I'm on Alvarez here at evens. I just think he's the better all around fighter and I don't put as much stock into the Conor fight as some others. I mean, Conor finished both of these guys easily, I feel like he's simply on another level from most guys in the division. Also, Dustin has never been able to get over the hump against the top ranked guys and while some of his wins haven't been pretty to watch, Alvarez has beaten much better competition. I think Eddie grinds out a decision here. Although, DP does get dragged into a lot of brawls so I wouldn't be surprised to see it end early either way. Should be a fun fight. Really loving this card.

I absolutely think he can win a decision, I just think if this is a mostly a striking match, he will find Eddies chin and put him out in 15 minutes. Eddie always gets hurt and DP is really good offensively. If it goes the distance it's probably because Eddie comes in and wrestles and then he gets the decision.

 

[NinjaCat456]

seriously wta (womens tennis) is like wmma on steroids lol, so many great opportunities to make money on tennis, not even just on the women, there's huge variables that aren't factored into the lines sometimes, from the weather, injuries, different surfaces, the list goes on and on. also it's a lot more common for players to effectively lose matches on purpose to save themselves for bigger tournaments.

Wow. Guess we need more tennis in the non-mma sport betting thread then. Whenever I check it, it seems to be 95% basketball/american sports (which there's nothing wrong with btw). I'd definitely need to read pages of detailed analysis like I do for mma before feeling confident staking money on it. If it's profitable I'm in.