UFC 211 - Stipe vs JDS II - Dallas

[edole]

Re-watching Andrade vs Hill right now.

Andrade throws strikes like Wanderlei -- head down winging power hooks and over hands

She landed on Hill plenty, but Hill did a decent job of eating them. Hill also dropped her with an elbow at one point as she caught Andrade rushing in.

Prior to Andrade's TKO over Penne about 1 year ago, the last time she (T)KO'd anyone was in 2012.

If Gadhela couldn't grind her to a decision/sub her than why are we expecting Andrade to be able to?

I love JJ in this fight.

Joanna will have 3.5 inches of reach.

I am going to wait as I think the lines will continue to move towards Andrade, then put a 3-4 unit bet on JJ.

 

[raketmannen]

IMO Poiriers chin is now suspect. I don't rate Michael Johnson that much and he disposed of him fairly easily. Alvarez took a beating in his last fight. But it's by a fighter on another level than 99% of others. I just see Alvarez really coming back strong and hungry. A similar win like he did to RDS to win the belt. Round 1 KO

Alvarez get tagged and rocked in EVERY fight he is in(okay not against RDA obviously), he usually recovers good though. Poirier's got the faster hands and cleaner striking imo, and Alvarez is the more hittable of the two unless it becomes a brawl, which it often does with Poirier. The wrestling will be the biggest factor in this fight i think

 

[Jamah]

 

[trucido]

Honestly have never been impressed with any Alvarez fight since he joined the UFC. The RDA win can be considered decent but it may have played out much differently if RDA didint nearly die the day before the fight. Fading Alvarez here with a 2u bet on Poirier who looks improved every fight imo.

 

[Obsidian Fracture]

Joanna is a legit nuk muay, anyone thinking that the average wild brawler is going to overcome a massive skill and reach discrepancy is trippin'.

Eddie vs Poirer is a coin flip. I'm going on Poirer because I think he is the hungrier fighter with less damage and fight miles clocked.

JDS vs. Stipe is another coin flip. At the current odds Stipe is pretty tempting, but JDS at +250 was a bargain.

I'm thinking Maia handles Mas pretty easily and have bet on it. The only thing that worries me is his age. If this was 2 years ago I would be dropping heat on him, I just think that he is a much higher level of fighter. The fight is risky because Maia's age could catch up with him overnight and Mas may be peaking.

 

[Yotsuya]

Eddie vs Poirer is a coin flip. I'm going on Poirer because I think he is the hungrier fighter with less damage and fight miles clocked.

My thoughts excaltly. When everything else seems even, I give the motivated fighter with the momentum a very strong edge over the odds against fading opponent.

 

[Jamah]

Joanna is a legit nuk muay, anyone thinking that the average wild brawler is going to overcome a massive skill and reach discrepancy is trippin'.

Eddie vs Poirer is a coin flip. I'm going on Poirer because I think he is the hungrier fighter with less damage and fight miles clocked.

JDS vs. Stipe is another coin flip. At the current odds Stipe is pretty tempting, but JDS at +250 was a bargain.

I'm thinking Maia handles Mas pretty easily and have bet on it. The only thing that worries me is his age. If this was 2 years ago I would be dropping heat on him, I just think that he is a much higher level of fighter. The fight is risky because Maia's age could catch up with him overnight and Mas may be peaking.

Even If Maia were 30 years old I would never bet a lot of money in such a one dimensional fighter like him.
I like him, he is a monster with his chain wrestling and his jiujitsu but if he can't get the takedown he is fucked up. Even If he can get the takedowns for 2 rounds, he needs to go full survival mode in the 3rd round cuz he gasses badly. He got hurt against Matt brown in the 3rd round and he didn't even need to work hard to get the takedowns in the 1st and 2nd round. Rory almost finished him. He is going to get put away if he gasses or if he can't get the takedowns.

Maia is not a finisher, Matt who is not a good grappler survived 14 minutes on the ground against him. If you play it defensively you won't get finished.

I don't know why some ppl are worried about the "size disadvantage" in this fight. Maia is not much bigger than Masvidal , and don't forget that Masvidal is training with Colby Covington who is arguably one of the best wrestlers in the UFC.

 

[Yotsuya]

I made small bets on Stipe - JDS for O2 (1.87) and O3 (2.5). I feel that there's value on those odds.

Miocic has four finishes, but two of those are over glass jaws, one agaist out-of-shape Hunt and the fourth one, well, I doubt JDS will get that silly. What can be learnt from those fights is, that Stipe still fights smart, confident and focused, but I'm not at all sure, that he can take JDS out, at least not early on.

JDS on the other hand seems to have lost some muscle mass. That makes him less dangerous but gives him better cardio. He's getting better not getting caught with his back to the fence and has given his chin almost a full year to rest. Naturally I'm worried about JDS getting KO'd by Overeem and all that damage taken against Cain, but he should be able to handle Stipe for 3 rounds.

I think both will be there to fight smart and I'm tempted to put more money on those odds. Any thoughts? What do you think Miocic's strategy will be?

 

[mkess101]

Even If Maia were 30 years old I would never bet a lot of money in such a one dimensional fighter like him.
I like him, he is a monster with his chain wrestling and his jiujitsu but if he can't get the takedown he is fucked up. Even If he can get the takedowns for 2 rounds, he needs to go full survival mode in the 3rd round cuz he gasses badly. He got hurt against Matt brown in the 3rd round and he didn't even need to work hard to get the takedowns in the 1st and 2nd round. Rory almost finished him. He is going to get put away if he gasses or if he can't get the takedowns.

Maia is not a finisher, Matt who is not a good grappler survived 14 minutes on the ground against him. If you play it defensively you won't get finished.

I don't know why some ppl are worried about the "size disadvantage" in this fight. Maia is not much bigger than Masvidal , and don't forget that Masvidal is training with Colby Covington who is arguably one of the best wrestlers in the UFC.

Some good analysis here, a lot I agree with. But also some things you are reaching on. Rory has some of the best counter-wrestling in MMA (or did anyway). Maybe you think Jorge is on that level, I'm not so sure. I think his counter-wrestling is good, but that good? Maybe.

Totally agree if you are a competent grappler who plays 100% defense you can survive vs Maia. I posted the exact same thing earlier. But you are also then giving away a full round off one takedown. In a 3 rd fight...yikes. I'd also add that saying Brown is "not a good grappler" is really unfair. He's not amazing, but his grappling is actually pretty solid. The problem was that once he did what you and I said (just played defense) for 2 rounds and then got taken down again in the 3rd, he had no choice but to take the chance to try to stand up. Then it was the usual where Maia took his back and goodnight. Condit doing it in the first round was a tactical blunder for sure. He obviously should have played defense with Maia in his guard and conceded rd 1.

So Masvidal is now the betting favorite. I already have a bet on him by KO/TKO at +275 but somehow even though he's the favorite his KO prop is up to +312?? I'm gonna bet Maia ML +115 and add to my Jorge KO bet. I could get middled of course if Jorge wins a decision, but it's a chance I'm willing to take with these odds.

 

[mkess101]

I made small bets on Stipe - JDS for O2 (1.9) and O3 (2.5). I feel that there's value on those odds.

Miocic has four finishes, but two of those are over glass jaws, one agaist out-of-shape Hunt and the fourth one, well, I doubt JDS will get that silly. What can be learnt from those fights is, that Stipe still fights smart, confident and focused, but I'm not at all sure, that he can take JDS out, at least not early on.

JDS on the other hand seems to have lost some muscle mass. That makes him less dangerous but gives him better cardio. He's getting better not getting caught with his back to the fence and has given his chin almost a full year to rest. Naturally I'm worried about JDS getting KO'd by Overeem and all that damage taken against Cain, but he should be able to handle Stipe for 3 rounds.

I think both will be there to fight smart and I'm tempted to put more money on those odds. Any thoughts? What do you think Miocic's strategy will be?

I don't hate those plays. I don't think this thing sees the cards like the first time they fought, but I also don't see either guy going in there looking to stand in the pocket and throw bombs until one guy is KO'd either. I think both guys are smart strikers and will use the early going to look for openings. It's HW and two guys with solid power so of course an early KO is always possible, but I see it more likely to end in the middle rounds somewhere.

I am really pissed at myself for not betting more on JDS KO/TKO at +337. That was an insane line, and it's down to +179 now. I should have known it would drop like a rock and I could have had a giant freeroll. I have a decent sized bet on it (for a prop anyway) but should have done more.

 

[edole]

The over 1.5 for Maia/Masvidal is only -170 on 5dimes -- I really like that.

 

[Jamah]

Some good analysis here, a lot I agree with. But also some things you are reaching on. Rory has some of the best counter-wrestling in MMA (or did anyway). Maybe you think Jorge is on that level, I'm not so sure. I think his counter-wrestling is good, but that good? Maybe.

Totally agree if you are a competent grappler who plays 100% defense you can survive vs Maia. I posted the exact same thing earlier. But you are also then giving away a full round off one takedown. In a 3 rd fight...yikes. I'd also add that saying Brown is "not a good grappler" is really unfair. He's not amazing, but his grappling is actually pretty solid. The problem was that once he did what you and I said (just played defense) for 2 rounds and then got taken down again in the 3rd, he had no choice but to take the chance to try to stand up. Then it was the usual where Maia took his back and goodnight. Condit doing it in the first round was a tactical blunder for sure. He obviously should have played defense with Maia in his guard and conceded rd 1.

So Masvidal is now the betting favorite. I already have a bet on him by KO/TKO at +275 but somehow even though he's the favorite his KO prop is up to +312?? I'm gonna bet Maia ML +115 and add to my Jorge KO bet. I could get middled of course if Jorge wins a decision, but it's a chance I'm willing to take with these odds.

You are right with Matt, I didnt mean to say that he is bad.
I'm on Masvidal ML +110

 

[mkess101]

You are right with Matt, I didnt mean to say that he is bad.
I'm on Masvidal ML +110

I can't argue with a bet on Mas at + odds. I just think if he wins it will look similar to Whittaker/Jacare (and Maia is a far worse striker than Jacare). If Jorge wins a decision I'm gonna take a hit on this one.

 

[Jamah]

I can't argue with a bet on Mas at + odds. I just think if he wins it will look similar to Whittaker/Jacare (and Maia is a far worse striker than Jacare). If Jorge wins a decision I'm gonna take a hit on this one.

I'll bet on Masvidal ITD too, but props aren't out in my bookie yet.

 

[Yotsuya]

I don't hate those plays. I don't think this thing sees the cards like the first time they fought, but I also don't see either guy going in there looking to stand in the pocket and throw bombs until one guy is KO'd either. I think both guys are smart strikers and will use the early going to look for openings. It's HW and two guys with solid power so of course an early KO is always possible, but I see it more likely to end in the middle rounds somewhere.

I dropped the idea to bet on fight going to judges after rewatching the first fight. I had forgotten how brutal it was. I just feel, that the odds are partially based on illusion of Stipe having a incredible killer instinct and JDS's supposedly weak jaw, but maybe the odds are just business as usual in HW.

 

[Joseph Budden]

Guys just remember, there is NO CHANCE Maia vs Mas looks like Whittaker vs Jacare. That's lazy capping at it's finest.

Whit actually has phenomenal lateral footwork and his stance was tailor made to get underhooks in td attempts. Mas stands straight up and uses only vertical movement to bounce between ranges. Plus Maia is a lefty, brings heavy pressure, and literally has shown he just needs the clinch to create a grappling exchange which Jacare had never shown.

 

[weedreference]

Re-watching Andrade vs Hill right now.

Andrade throws strikes like Wanderlei -- head down winging power hooks and over hands

She landed on Hill plenty, but Hill did a decent job of eating them. Hill also dropped her with an elbow at one point as she caught Andrade rushing in.

Prior to Andrade's TKO over Penne about 1 year ago, the last time she (T)KO'd anyone was in 2012.

If Gadhela couldn't grind her to a decision/sub her than why are we expecting Andrade to be able to?

I love JJ in this fight.

Joanna will have 3.5 inches of reach.

I am going to wait as I think the lines will continue to move towards Andrade, then put a 3-4 unit bet on JJ.

I could easily see Andrade winning a decision... in fact, I think it's one of the most likely results.

It's similar to the Lineker/Dodson fight, except JJ doesn't have nearly the movement and power of Dodson, and Andrade is a way bigger grappling threat than Lineker.

 

[mkess101]

Guys just remember, there is NO CHANCE Maia vs Mas looks like Whittaker vs Jacare. That's lazy capping at it's finest.

Whit actually has phenomenal lateral footwork and his stance was tailor made to get underhooks in td attempts. Mas stands straight up and uses only vertical movement to bounce between ranges. Plus Maia is a lefty, brings heavy pressure, and literally has shown he just needs the clinch to create a grappling exchange which Jacare had never shown.

Jacared used just the clinch to get Mousasi to the mat (he also used his power double another time), but your point is still valid.

But there's also the reality that Jorge can start his sprawl early because Maia has zero threat striking. It's hard to say if Mas will adjust his stance and keep his hands way lower than he normally does, but he probably should. He can still zap Maia with hard strikes from that position and if Maia tries to take advantage by throwing a lot of overhands that's doing Maia a favor. We're not gonna see Maia do what Mir did to Kongo (fake the level change and throw the overhand when opponents hands are dropped).

Maia has become an elite MMA TD artist with his chain wrestling, no doubt. But it's not like NOBODY has been able to keep it standing against him. I'm saying it could look like Whit/Jacare only in that IF Maia is unable to secure TD's, he likely gets his face caved in. I don't see Jorge sticking and moving and outpointing Maia for a win.

 

[edole]

I could easily see Andrade winning a decision... in fact, I think it's one of the most likely results.

It's similar to the Lineker/Dodson fight, except JJ doesn't have nearly the movement and power of Dodson, and Andrade is a way bigger grappling threat than Lineker.

So you think that Andrade will out-point JJ in a striking match?

I appreciate your opinion, but in a striking match between these two, I am going to side with the 29-2 Kickboxer 13-0 MMA fighter to piece up Andrade on the feet.

 

[Joseph Budden]

Jacared used just the clinch to get Mousasi to the mat (he also used his power double another time), but your point is still valid.

But there's also the reality that Jorge can start his sprawl early because Maia has zero threat striking. It's hard to say if Mas will adjust his stance and keep his hands way lower than he normally does, but he probably should. He can still zap Maia with hard strikes from that position and if Maia tries to take advantage by throwing a lot of overhands that's doing Maia a favor. We're not gonna see Maia do what Mir did to Kongo (fake the level change and throw the overhand when opponents hands are dropped).

Maia has become an elite MMA TD artist with his chain wrestling, no doubt. But it's not like NOBODY has been able to keep it standing against him. I'm saying it could look like Whit/Jacare only in that IF Maia is unable to secure TD's, he likely gets his face caved in. I don't see Jorge sticking and moving and outpointing Maia for a win.

Maia is definitely not zero threat striking. He has very functional boxing, especially to set up finding and closing the distance. Jorge will not change his stance. The dude has had a ridiculous amount of fights, and ALWAYS stands upright. I seriously doubt hes going to risk changing whats comfortable.

But that actually is true. At WW, NOBODY has been able to keep it standing with him. Thats 5 years of every single opponent ending up taken down by Maia.

Maia is officially a VERY #elite bet. Betting Maia gets you easy money + #elite HoF consideration. The Mas hype has gotten out of hand, and this is a PERFECT chance to take advantage of it. He sucks using his go-to jab vs lefties, he tends to over extend on the right straight which a guy like Mutante was able to take him down off of, and that upright stance is literally the worst stance to have to avoid a guy getting in on your hips and thats all Maia needs. He doesn't need to take down Mas the way jacare needs to take down all the guys he fights. Maia is a master at koala bearing dudes til they give up the back, or hell vs Brown he even pulled half guard from the clinch at one point for a sweep. Besides being a great wrestler, he has amazing variation with his grappling and ways to get it to the ground or take the back.