UFC 198 - Curitiba - Werdum vs Miocic

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Sadistics said:
I expect a lot of money to come in on him as we get closer to the event. He holds more name value, is fighting in his home country, is the current champ, and casuals love to bet favourites. I feel like a lot of the people betting Stipe are doing so because they view it as a dog or pass fight but as his odds get lower people will be happy to take Werdum.
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not sure i agree w/movement reasoning, but we'll see
 
EzFlyer said:
not sure i agree w/movement reasoning, but we'll see
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I can only remember one time you were wrong with line movement so you have me worried he'll drop more, but either way I'm happy taking him at -145
 
Sadistics said:
I can only remember one time you were wrong with line movement so you have me worried he'll drop more, but either way I'm happy taking him at -145
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i'm just saying i have no idea which way it'll move.. it has continuously gotten cheaper and cheaper, tho.. i'm not sure why -145 will be the lowpoint, that's all i was saying

i don't blame you, btw. i may regret waiting, but i'm hoping it gets better (moreso than banking on it). if fight happened right now, i'd take it, too
 
Sadistics said:
I expect a lot of money to come in on him as we get closer to the event. He holds more name value, is fighting in his home country, is the current champ, and casuals love to bet favourites. I feel like a lot of the people betting Stipe are doing so because they view it as a dog or pass fight but as his odds get lower people will be happy to take Werdum.
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Those are my thoughts also. I could be wayyy off base, but I wouldn't be surprised to see Werdum at -190ish by fight time.
 
chemmy said:
Those are my thoughts also. I could be wayyy off base, but I wouldn't be surprised to see Werdum at -190ish by fight time.
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just to reiterate, i don't disagree, but i don't know if -145 is the best we'll get. i see no reason to bet werdum until it stops dropping. it has been a steady decline since the opening
 
EzFlyer said:
just to reiterate, i don't disagree, but i don't know if -145 is the best we'll get. i see no reason to bet werdum until it stops dropping. it has been a steady decline since the opening
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I personally really like Werdum in this fight (cap him somewhere near -200) so I've been adding to him every time his line improves. I keep expecting it to bounce back, but so far it hasn't. I'll be a bit heavier on him than I would've liked, but with the line getting better and better it's hard not to follow Barry's moto and set up shop in value town.
 
font up to +180

gonna play werdum now for a few unites at -145
 
EzFlyer said:
just to reiterate, i don't disagree, but i don't know if -145 is the best we'll get. i see no reason to bet werdum until it stops dropping. it has been a steady decline since the opening
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Naturally, you can never know if a line stop dropping until it goes up again and you miss the lowest price and vice versa on the peak. I made an educated guess that -145 for Werdum might be the bottom and made a substantial 4.35 unit bet on Werdum to win 3u as well as a 5 unit bet on Anderson Silva at -125 to win 4u with the same logic. I think both lines will get worse from here.
 
Only stabbed at Moic and Nog DEC openers so far. Maybe Lineker
 
Was getting confused with all those events so quick ufc schedule list here:

May 14th: Werdum vs Stipe
(2 week break then on Sunday)
May 29th: Almedia vs Garbrandt
June 4th: Rockhold vs Weidman 2
(2 week break)
June 18th: Macdonald vs Thompson
(2.5 week break)
July 07th: RDA vs Alvarez
July 08th: JJ vs Claudia II
July 09th: DC vs Jones II
(4 day break)
July 14th: chiesa vs ferguson
(10 day break)
July 23rd: holm vs shevchenko
(7 day break)
July 30th: Lawler vs Woodley


Basically call in sick entire July month even if you don't work
 
Agent Mulder said:
Seems a bit steep. Barbarena isn't gonna quit so if Alves doesn't get the guillotine I dont think he'll finish. Paying that price is a bit too much IMO.
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maybe. i wonder what sub prop will pay
 
why are people on tukhgov?

he seems like a mini tumenov. good boxer but no bjj. moicana is taller longer more diverse striking and certainly should have an edge on the ground. plus some hometown judging never hurts.

i think hes worth a play at plus 170
 
MONEYLINE said:
why are people on tukhgov?

he seems like a mini tumenov. good boxer but no bjj. moicana is taller longer more diverse striking and certainly should have an edge on the ground. plus some hometown judging never hurts.

i think hes worth a play at plus 170
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Just fause tunrnov had a bad night doesn't mean tukhuhov will...

Moicano =/= gunnar nelson
 
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