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Wilder almost certainly will connect with his right hand at some point but, as you said, he'll be off-balance most of the fight. Usyk will turn him, force him to constantly reset, and make it very difficult to line him up and get full power on his signature shot. While Usyk being a southpaw could make it easier for Wilder to connect this is no ordinary southpaw. Usyk was trained by Anatoly Lomachenko who taught him the same step-around that Vasyl uses against right handed opponents. I could see Usyk hitting that side-step all night and countering Wilder with sharp straight left hands when he attempts to throw his right hand. Fury has never been a good counterpuncher. Usyk is, he's better defensively, and clearly the better boxer/mover. Not to mention Usyk is a generational talent. You don't become one by not being very special.And that’s his problem right there. He’ll either be gun shy because he can’t get the shot off, or he’ll be throwing off balance, where he’ll lose much of it’s power and leave himself vulnerable. It’s clearly a dangerous fight for usyk but stylistically it’s a nightmare for wilder, worse than fury. Would love to see it though, but I doubt this one will happen
I would give Wilder around a 30% puncher's chance (assuming Usyk can't take his power). If they fight 3 times Wilder may knock him out once. Most big punchers don't get anywhere near that. As Moz said earlier, usually it's only around 10%-20% tops.
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