Tony's training partner basically picks Khabib

Are fighters any better at predicting fights than non-noob MMA fans?
 
Very few fighters peak at 24-25 years old. Kevin lee is still not in his prime

“Not in his prime” and “still green” are two totally different things

25 years old 12 UFC fights is far closer to “in your prime” than “still green”
 
I mean, it was only part of one round so obviously grain of salt, but look at Tony after being mounted by Lee. Scrambling, bucking, finally getting guard back as round 1 ended. Lee maybe isn't Khabib, but when fresh he's a beast on the mat (look what he did to Chiesa). Tony popped up at the end of that round like he'd just been chilling on his couch. Literally not even breathing hard at all, just fine.

And I realize it's sort of projection to a degree, but if you look at RDA, he took less damage in round 3 vs Khabib than in the first 2 round, and was able to get back to his feet. Khabib slowed a bit in round 3 there. I don't think it's irrational to think that Tony has better cardio than RDA, regardless of where the fight is taking place.

I think the bigger issue for Tony is his tendency to take silly chances and get stuck in bad spots, always just trusting his durability and creativity to get him out of them. He needs to be pretty damn careful with a grappler the level of Khabib in doing that stuff.
Not denying that Tony doesn't have insane cardio. Just questioning the idea that his cardio and durability will undoubtedly hold up in a different style of fight against the best fighter he's ever faced. Tony has been in a lot of wars and he's getting up there in age. The downslope inevitably happens at some point.

I don't quite buy the idea that Khabib noticeably slows down as the fight progresses. He did finish Johnson in the 3rd after all and noticeably turned it up in the last round against Tibau, Healy, and Trujillo. His other fights were earlier finishes. I would honestly be surprised if Khabib gassed out against Tony.
 
I mean, it was only part of one round so obviously grain of salt, but look at Tony after being mounted by Lee. Scrambling, bucking, finally getting guard back as round 1 ended. Lee maybe isn't Khabib, but when fresh he's a beast on the mat (look what he did to Chiesa). Tony popped up at the end of that round like he'd just been chilling on his couch. Literally not even breathing hard at all, just fine.

And I realize it's sort of projection to a degree, but if you look at RDA, he took less damage in round 3 vs Khabib than in the first 2 round, and was able to get back to his feet. Khabib slowed a bit in round 3 there. I don't think it's irrational to think that Tony has better cardio than RDA, regardless of where the fight is taking place.

I think the bigger issue for Tony is his tendency to take silly chances and get stuck in bad spots, always just trusting his durability and creativity to get him out of them. He needs to be pretty damn careful with a grappler the level of Khabib in doing that stuff.
I was super worried about the damage Tony was taking in the first and second round against Lee.

I was so surprised how fresh he was In the third. That said I feel he needs to be very conservative in his sub attempts in the first 3 rounds......he can't be in very vunerable positions against the eagle for long times.
He will be stopped. Once he slows him down he can get more aggressive with subs but not until then.
 
It's going to go one of two ways.

Khabib taking the fight to the ground and beating him to death or Tony surviving long enough and out working him in the stand up.

Tony isn't going to surprise him with fuking submission.
 
You're one of the more level headed Tony fans on this board, so I implore you to spot the difference between fighting standing up with Barboza and RDA and carrying Khabib's weight while eating punches for the the same amount of time.

No elite grappler has ever pressured Tony before to my recollection. Most of his wars have been standup fights. I don't think there's a single fighter that somehow doesn't lose steam after grappling with Khabib for 2 rounds. The energy expenditure is just way greater for the guy on bottom.
That's the genius of Khabibs game. Spend energy in grappling exchanges and you gas. Conserve your energy and concede position, Khabib wins rounds.
 
I’m not convinced who will win.

Hell, I’m not even convinced that lunch box kabob will enter the cage
 
I was super worried about the damage Tony was taking in the first and second round against Lee.

I was so surprised how fresh he was In the third. That said I feel he needs to be very conservative in his sub attempts in the first 3 rounds......he can't be in very vunerable positions against the eagle for long times.
He will be stopped. Once he slows him down he can get more aggressive with subs but not until then.

Yeah Tony is simply on another level when it comes to durability and cardio. He's literally a terminator.

But you just can't rely on that forever. At some point it catches up with you.
 
Are fighters any better at predicting fights than non-noob MMA fans?

They tend to be worse actually- at least when it comes to very important fights.

Too many tangled webs between training partners, friends, rivals, etc. that make rational, unemotional analysis rare in these fighter picks clips.
 
I have a feeling Kevin Lee in 2 years will be a "motherfucker" as the kids call it.
 
Yeah Tony is simply on another level when it comes to durability and cardio. He's literally a terminator.

But you just can't rely on that forever. At some point it catches up with you.
That's what makes it hard to back Tony here. He's older and has been through a fuck ton of wars.

Otherwise these two are dead even. Just 2 monsters leaving it all in the cage.
 
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