Tony's training partner basically picks Khabib

Shammon said:
Again, totally different types of fights than the one he is about to experience. No one has pressured Tony and constantly tried to take him down. If you've never dealt with that before, it can be a tough adjustment. And it makes sense. Carrying a guy's weight and constantly scrambling/exploding to get up is exponentially more taxing than striking and intermittently grappling.

Tony's gas tank has never faltered so you're right, there is a possibility that he handles it with flying colors, but I think it's difficult to extrapolate his prior fights to anything he's experienced before.

Barboza was a harder opponent to take down for Khabib compared to Tony, but he's by far the best guard player he's ever faced so that is something to watch out for as well.
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I mean, it was only part of one round so obviously grain of salt, but look at Tony after being mounted by Lee. Scrambling, bucking, finally getting guard back as round 1 ended. Lee maybe isn't Khabib, but when fresh he's a beast on the mat (look what he did to Chiesa). Tony popped up at the end of that round like he'd just been chilling on his couch. Literally not even breathing hard at all, just fine.

And I realize it's sort of projection to a degree, but if you look at RDA, he took less damage in round 3 vs Khabib than in the first 2 round, and was able to get back to his feet. Khabib slowed a bit in round 3 there. I don't think it's irrational to think that Tony has better cardio than RDA, regardless of where the fight is taking place.

I think the bigger issue for Tony is his tendency to take silly chances and get stuck in bad spots, always just trusting his durability and creativity to get him out of them. He needs to be pretty damn careful with a grappler the level of Khabib in doing that stuff.
 
Like both men but as of today I pick Tony! This may change 7- 8 different times by the time the fight gets here...
 
TheLastEmperorReurns said:
RDA got back to his feet in round 1 too and actually landed more strikes than Khabib.

here's a round by round highlight



There are better (actual) examples of Khabib slowing down as the fight progresses but he still continues to dominate and it's normal for fighters to wane as fights go longer and longer
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I mean, we can debate which round was better for RDA I guess, but clearly Khabib slowed a bit. He threw 10 less strikes in round 3, and RDA definitely landed his best combo in that round.

I agree, Khabib has still had enough in the tank to win even in round 3 so far. But this is a 5 round fight, and if he's already slowing at times in round 3, what about rounds 4 and 5? If he's beaten Tony down enough but hasn't finished him, maybe it won't matter. But if Tony still has plenty left in the tank, Khabib is in trouble.
 
mkess101 said:
I mean, we can debate which round was better for RDA I guess, but clearly Khabib slowed a bit. He threw 10 less strikes in round 3, and RDA definitely landed his best combo in that round.

I agree, Khabib has still had enough in the tank to win even in round 3 so far. But this is a 5 round fight, and if he's already slowing at times in round 3, what about rounds 4 and 5? If he's beaten Tony down enough but hasn't finished him, maybe it won't matter. But if Tony still has plenty left in the tank, Khabib is in trouble.
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Even the most cardio-intensive fighters throw fewer strikes in the later rounds than in the earlier rounds.

It's not about how much less output you offer as the rounds wane- it's about how much less output you offer relative to your opponent as the rounds wane.

In that respect, Khabib demonstrated excellent stamina against RDA.

His best round was round 2 [as it normally is] but he did better in round 3 than he did in round 1.

He def. waned against Barboza though but the most questionable aspects about his background and his cardio resolve around the fact that that he goes from dominating 90% of round 1 to only dominating like 75-85%. in round 3.. that is to say, does he actually have suspect cardio or are we just being really weird about this?
 
ninja boot said:
think it's pretty obvious at this point khabib is favoured to win but I will say one thing... regardless of what the odds-makers, fighters or general public say, as a training partner or "friend" of Tony... you don't fucking pick against the guy. now whatever the outcome is all you've shown is that you're an asshole. team supports team whoever the opponent.
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Exactly, the media wont give a ahit about you when you lose, but your teammatea do
 
TheLastEmperorReurns said:
Even the most cardio-intensive fighters throw fewer strikes in the later rounds than in the earlier rounds.

It's not about how much less output you offer as the rounds wane- it's about how much less output you offer relative to your opponent as the rounds wane.

In that respect, Khabib demonstrated excellent stamina against RDA.

His best round was round 2 [as it normally is] but he did better in round 3 than he did in round 1.

He def. waned against Barboza though but the most questionable aspects about his background and his cardio resolve around the fact that that he goes from dominating 90% of round 1 to only dominating like 75-85%... that is to say, does he actually have suspect cardio or are we just being really weird about this?
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Not always. I realize it was a standup fight, but look at Tony's rds 4 and 5 vs RDA. At elevation.

http://www.fightmetric.com/fight-details/9220acccebf14a46
 
TheLastEmperorReurns said:
<mma4>
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Okay. I'm gonna say a broken arm will affect a guy during a fight. I'm not saying the loss "doesn't count", but I think any reasonable person is gonna take it into account quite a bit, right?
 
Takedown defense isn't monolithic and cannot be described by a single number. What matters is the style of wrestling offense and how your skill on defense matches up with it. Barboza may have better takedown defense numbers, but what skills does he employ to avoid takedowns. He uses lateral movement and stays on the outside. When an opponent moves forward he moves backward and circles out, back to the center of the octagon. This works well against slow footed plodders like Dariush, but not against someone like Khabib. Khabib was pressuring and chasing him around and Barboza eventually backed himself into the fence. Barboza's solution to forward pressure was to run backwards even faster. On the fence, Barboza had limited defense. Framing off Khabib's throat and using power to dig for an underhook. BJJ Scout does a good breakdown of this.
Tony is much better at breaking grips, granby rolls and fence grappling then Barboza. If you watch Tony's fights he mainly gets taken down off kicks and punches when he is pressing forward. He does however have excellent sprawl defense against straight shots. He doesn't control the distance too well, when on offense, allowing guys like Lee to get in on his hips. But, Khabib does not try for takedowns off of kicks anymore. He caught a few kicks to takedowns in the Healy fight, but has largely abandoned this. Khabib likes to pressure the opponent into stepping outside the black line - close to the fence - throw a 1, 2, 3 and shoot as the opponent blocks. From there he sometimes gets a straight double but mostly a right underhook. He then presses the opponent into the fence, looking for bodylocks, doubles or trips. He will not have an easy time taking down Tony on the fence. In contrast a guy like Lee had good success against Tony because he finished shots quickly in the center of the octagon.

 
Tony is some sloppy WW who moved down

Khabib is possibly the best fighter in the world atm
 
tonysmasseuse said:
Funny, but that's exactly one of the reasons I'm picking against him - other than Tony being the superior athlete in nearly all regards. Khabib is like a machine, programmed and predictable. Tony is a fighter, driven from the inside and unpredictable. Can't wait for this fight!
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Wow! That's sound logic....Makes a great deal of sense.

I'm sure it's going to work out for you.
 
Frozen Sea said:
Still green, bad weight cut, staph infection Kevin Lee took Tony down (multiple times) and mounted him.

This will be a beatdown on Khabib's part. People like to bring up Tony's guard game (which is very good), however I don't see Khabib sitting in his guard as he usually is always in a dominant top position when pounding his opponents and he wont play that game with Tony as it's pretty much the only danger he poses towards Khabib.

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Don't forget, the man Khabib is beating down in that GIF also wrestle fucked Tony Ferguson.
 
Blonde Mousasi said:
Don't forget, the man Khabib is beating down in that GIF also wrestle fucked Tony Ferguson.
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It must have happened in an amateur wrestling match. There were 0 takedowns by Johnson when he fought Tony in the Octagon.
 
its fedor vs nog all over again, 2 great fighters finally fighting
 
Frozen Sea said:
Still green, bad weight cut, staph infection Kevin Lee took Tony down (multiple times) and mounted him.

This will be a beatdown on Khabib's part. People like to bring up Tony's guard game (which is very good), however I don't see Khabib sitting in his guard as he usually is always in a dominant top position when pounding his opponents and he wont play that game with Tony as it's pretty much the only danger he poses towards Khabib.

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It was his 12th fight in the ufc lol how the fook is he “still green”

Do your research sir
 
Tony has 25 mins to finish. Hell lose a decision but by the championship rounds he’ll go bat shit crazy and do something to finish the fight.
 
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