Stock Portfolios V2

[PaleMoonlight]

Average growth of what? Large cap? Small cap? Age blend? That calculator asks you to put in growth. If you put in 11%, like it says, you're going to be disappointed in real life. I put in 11%, working from now until age 62, putting in $1200/month, and it says my current savings plus new savings will grow to $4.5MM, which is absurd. Even not adding in my current savings it says $3.1MM at $1500/month (which is about what I put away between 2 Roth IRAs and a 401k).

This calculator, using the same metrics of $1500/month, growing at 11%, for 26 years, not adding in my current savings, says my total will be $2.68MM, which is like $500k less than Dave Ramsey's site.

Dave Ramsey is full of shit in a lot of ways. I like the thought of minimizing debt, but his assumptions are always way high and get people's hopes up. Your investments probably won't grow at 11% per year in perpetuity, as your allocation will shift over time away from riskier small/mid cap stocks to more blue chips and bonds, decreasing your annual return later in life. The only way to get a much more accurate calculation is to use a Monte Carlo simulation, changing investment strategies and amounts over time.

I know it's simplistic, but I just can't stand a lot of these "financial advisors" out there, like Dave or Suze Ormann, who aren't actually registered and give shit investment advice most of the time.

For the record, yes I was registered at one time in life.

Thanks for the info.

When you retire, how much is expected rate of return? Currently, my rate of return is 9%.

 

[boingyman]

Anyone can throw out numbers for expected rate of return, but we really don't know what will happen, especially for us that are still in our 20s or 30s. I would be happy with historical averages, but who knows. I just want to continue to be aggressive in our retirement savings, put in the effort to play it smart and take some risk when I think it's right. Then all I can do is hope for the best.

Hopefuly that + pension + social security (assuming it's still around) + owning at least 2 homes paid off by then + college tuition for the kids paid off, I can have enough to live a simple life yet enjoy freedom, traveling and experiencing the world while staying healthy. Health and quality of life is so important and underrated. Also enjoying the ride along the way is key because you never know what can happen.

 

[MASShole]

Thanks for the info.

When you retire, how much is expected rate of return? Currently, my rate of return is 9%.

Well, in retirement, you're looking closer to 5-6% hopefully, depending on mix. I'm of the opinion that I treat SS (if you're American) like a bond, so the majority of my holdings will be equity based (stocks, CEFs, ETFs, MFs, BDCs). However, I also prefer to try to save enough to follow the dividend growth model, where I can live off dividends that grow each year, where I don't have to touch the principal unless absolutely necessary. Most advisors want to assume the 4% total withdrawal rule, but why do that if you can get 4% in dividends or payout each year instead?

My RoR right now is 10% or so (have had some Roth conversions, kinda hard to see). My 401k this year is 13% as of 7/31, but the 1 year return ending 7/31 is 16+% so it's slowed down a little. I feel comfortable investing mostly in mid/small cap indices with some large cap and foreign thrown in, in my 401k if I don't have individual stock purchase options, and then rebalancing every 6 months.

If you ever want legitimate advice not pushing specific securities with an agenda, find an advisor that isn't affiliated with a specific firm that charges a simple fee for advice instead of a percent of assets under management (AUM). You can also get a lot of great advice from a good 401k program if you have one, and if they don't have it they'll have an affiliation with Morningstar where you can enter a lot of your info, assets, etc, and get a more accurate determination. I know by the time I'm 45 that I'll be making enough to max out my 401k every year, along with two Roth IRAs so that'll be a minimum of $30k put away each year, but most programs can't account for annual changes in investment dollars, or change your total input over time.

Bottom line, save as much as you can afford each year, have a good investment mix and rebalance mutual funds and ETFs annually in 401ks if you can. Try to take part of an annual raise and put it away too (or all of it if you can). Change your investment mix as you get older to minimize volatility while slightly reducing yet stabilizing returns.

 

[MASShole]

Sold OHI and bought HON yesterday.

Opened an "open trading" account aka taxable account, and a UTMA account for my son and am just doing no-fee ETFs in those as I won't be putting tons of money away in each, maybe $50 here and there.

 

[ElKarlo]

Good man. HON is a great stock. Going to have a couple more ten percent plus dividend raises.

 

[Orgasmo]

I got fucked on a gold stock this year (GPY, Golden Predator Mining Corp), and lost about $10k. I'm wondering whether I should hold on to it in the hopes that it bounces back. My Vanguard Consumer Staples ETF isn't doing too hot either, performing below the S&P 500 benchmark. I want to put some cash into tech ETF, but the way the S&P 500 is shooting up got me concerned about a possible crash in the coming year.

 

[ElKarlo]

I got fucked on a gold stock this year (GPY, Golden Predator Mining Corp), and lost about $10k. I'm wondering whether I should hold on to it in the hopes that it bounces back. My Vanguard Consumer Staples ETF isn't doing too hot either, performing below the S&P 500 benchmark. I want to put some cash into tech ETF, but the way the S&P 500 is shooting up got me concerned about a possible crash in the coming year.

That's tricky. Gold is a whacky commodiy that I steer clear of.
Consumers are getting hurt by Amazon and store brands, plus consumers don't like packaged food so much.
I'm going after tech now. Hugh margins and possibly of growth ahead. FinTech as well

 

[MASShole]

I don't like gold as an investment. If I discover it, I'd sell it and take the cash elsewhere. It doesn't go up rapidly like all those commercials say it does, and it doesn't really hedge your bets. Bonds do a better job of that.

Here's my investment class breakdown. First number is the percent of my total accounts invested, and the 2nd number is the percent of the dividends received. I'm overweight in staples, but those don't go anywhere, and are slow growing higher payers. Telecom I just own T and VZ, which are both near 5% divs so their total payout is pretty high. I don't own energy or utilities, as I'm concerned about energy as a whole, and utilities are too highly valued right now to invest in. I'd rather invest in those when they approach 4.5-5% divs, not the 3-3.5% you get now.

Energy 0.00% 0.00%
Materials 4.05% 3.30%
Industrials 12.91% 9.64%
Consumer Discretionary 15.26% 15.58%
Consumer Staples 29.51% 32.91%
Healthcare 13.32% 9.01%
Financials 4.36% 6.42%
IT 8.96% 4.01%
Telecom 11.63% 19.14%
Utilities 0.00% 0.00%

 

[Orgasmo]

That's tricky. Gold is a whacky commodiy that I steer clear of.
Consumers are getting hurt by Amazon and store brands, plus consumers don't like packaged food so much.
I'm going after tech now. Hugh margins and possibly of growth ahead. FinTech as well

It's a gold exploration company. Their site is quite promising as far as test drilling yield goes, but it hasn't transform into commercial operations. Hopefully it goes back up to the price of when I bought it when they announce their drilling results at the start of 2018. I'd be happy just making back the $10k I've lost.

From now on, I'm definitely sticking to Tech and Healthcare for growth.

 

[ElKarlo]

I don't like gold as an investment. If I discover it, I'd sell it and take the cash elsewhere. It doesn't go up rapidly like all those commercials say it does, and it doesn't really hedge your bets. Bonds do a better job of that.

Here's my investment class breakdown. First number is the percent of my total accounts invested, and the 2nd number is the percent of the dividends received. I'm overweight in staples, but those don't go anywhere, and are slow growing higher payers. Telecom I just own T and VZ, which are both near 5% divs so their total payout is pretty high. I don't own energy or utilities, as I'm concerned about energy as a whole, and utilities are too highly valued right now to invest in. I'd rather invest in those when they approach 4.5-5% divs, not the 3-3.5% you get now.

Energy 0.00% 0.00%
Materials 4.05% 3.30%
Industrials 12.91% 9.64%
Consumer Discretionary 15.26% 15.58%
Consumer Staples 29.51% 32.91%
Healthcare 13.32% 9.01%
Financials 4.36% 6.42%
IT 8.96% 4.01%
Telecom 11.63% 19.14%
Utilities 0.00% 0.00%

Me too man. I'm worried that utilities will be messed up via the green revolution. At the least less customers and those remaining have more.options.

I'm overweight staples too. Been getting into more tech and finance ala visa. BTW DFS aka discover card is great. Decent growth but it's buying back 8% of its float annually.
Also it's a good hedge against FinTech as it's a bank really profit wise

 

[ElKarlo]

It's a gold exploration company. Their site is quite promising as far as test drilling yield goes, but it hasn't transform into commercial operations. Hopefully it goes back up to the price of when I bought it when they announce their drilling results at the start of 2018. I'd be happy just making back the $10k I've lost.

From now on, I'm definitely sticking to Tech and Healthcare for growth.

That's the problem man. With mining it could be years or never to hit a payout. It's too much for me. I own VEDL which is an Indian diversified miner and refiner plus aluminum smelter. It's done very well

 

[MASShole]

That's the problem man. With mining it could be years or never to hit a payout. It's too much for me. I own VEDL which is an Indian diversified miner and refiner plus aluminum smelter. It's done very well

I got rid of BBL a few years ago. Mining is just totally hit or miss for years, like the energy sector. A lot of the risk isn't just risk, but rather uncertainty of actual finds and being able to extract those profitably.

I really wish my 401k let us invest in individual stocks. That would be so great. Right now I'm 95% vanguard mid cap index and 5% company stock. The rest of my portfolio is predominantly large cap already, so I don't need to invest in that in my 401k, and the small cap index has a 1% fee on it. No thanks. The rest of the options are trash.

These are on my radar for my 2018 investments: ITW, AAPL, MCD, DIS, LOW (adding more to it), HD, PM, KR, HRL, CAH.

 

[ElKarlo]

Yeah man. 401ks get silly. My first one only.allowed fidelity retirement date funds. Was awful.

Yeah I'm really excited about PM. I live in Sendai and it's iQOS everywhere here. Like 20% share or something. It's really going to be a game changer imho

 

[Eyepokesftw]

I just got involved in the stock market 2 weeks ago. I invested only 10K.

I'm already up $800 within those 2 weeks.. It's hard not giving in and investing even more. I have the expendable income to do so but I'd rather not risk it atm.

I only bought stocks in 3 companies and 1 ETF thus far, but they are all doing very well.

I'm in it for the long-term though. Buy and hold.

 

[MASShole]

I just got involved in the stock market 2 weeks ago. I invested only 10K.

I'm already up $800 within those 2 weeks.. It's hard not giving in and investing even more. I have the expendable income to do so but I'd rather not risk it atm.

I only bought stocks in 3 companies and 1 ETF thus far, but they are all doing very well.

I'm in it for the long-term though. Buy and hold.

If you're in it for the long term, don't look at the fast up/downs of the market.

 

[Universal Champion]

Got in @ 34$ it's $5400+ now.

 

[Eyepokesftw]

If you're in it for the long term, don't look at the fast up/downs of the market.

I know. I just consider it a hobby at this point ) I'm happy that the stocks I've chosen are doing well so quickly though. I'm not smart enough or care enough to get seriously involved in the stock market. I've got my 401k and TSP plan matching 4% of the 5% I contribute. Maxing out my IRA Roth every year... My retirement will be quite early.

I find that being invested in the stock market gives me a little extra something to do after work to look forward to. I view my gains and losses etc and read up on any new news that the companies I've invested in have come out with. Just a hobby... that might pay off quite well in the future )

 

[Kowboy Karl]

Lockheed
Raytheon
Tesla
The trade desk

Pretty much doubled my money on all these in last couple years and months

 

[ElKarlo]

Oh yeah MAss, good call on Walmart. It has been really going after the online space. I didnt think it would or could, but it is doing a good job fighting Amazon.

Illion Tools, man whata great company. Wish I bought it. I got MMM, HON, and Ba instead.

Everyone, do you think GE will cut it's dividend? Looks like Immelt left a lot of roaches when he left.

 

[therealdope]

Thanks for the info.

When you retire, how much is expected rate of return? Currently, my rate of return is 9%.

If you are counting on more than a 6% real rate of return over the long term then you are overly, and dangerously optimistic.