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The more volatile the more upside potential ...or maybe I know something...
Stock Portfolios V2
- Thread starter MASShole
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The more volatile the more upside potential ...or maybe I know something...
Any of you look into Horizon Pharma (HZNP)?
IMO, its a strong buy if you want something long. Its trading ~$19/share, down from ~$39/share in late July. No real bad news about it, still has strong fundamentals. 5 of the last 6 earnings reports were positive surprises(with a positive EPS). Out of the last 12 quarters, 9 were positive earnings, 2 were negative and 1 was in-line. 12 month mean price target among 7 analysts is $41/share.
Check it out
https://research.scottrade.com/qnr/Reports/GetPDF?docKey=2447-R611_HZNP_O-20151004
IMO, its a strong buy if you want something long. Its trading ~$19/share, down from ~$39/share in late July. No real bad news about it, still has strong fundamentals. 5 of the last 6 earnings reports were positive surprises(with a positive EPS). Out of the last 12 quarters, 9 were positive earnings, 2 were negative and 1 was in-line. 12 month mean price target among 7 analysts is $41/share.
Check it out
https://research.scottrade.com/qnr/Reports/GetPDF?docKey=2447-R611_HZNP_O-20151004
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realized + unrealized total ytd % vs spy. Might be my first year beating the market, im sure ill figure out a way to slip under
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Yeah KMI is getting scary. They tried to hard to stick to the 10% div raises every year. Too many people on SA are cultish about it too.
Man I need more pharmaceutical companies in my port.
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Do you know something? I think Egypt is pretty unstable in the long run, and without oil I don't see Egypt raking it in imho
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You gave me a log in link. Can't see crap
Anyhow, I couldn't find anything meaningful on HZNP. Sorry man. Just no real discussion/coverage. I don't know enough about bio tech to tell you much. I only follow NVAX, and that is from a friend's research.
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I don't think it's a bad company at all. I like the fact that Richard Kinder buys tons of shares and is confident in his company and outlook, but it's a bit of a risky play to me right now.
For pharma/biotech I have JNJ, ABBV, GILD and BDX. I don't think I can go wrong with any of these pseudo ETFs. Biotech has been crazy lately, but these 4 are rockstars of industry.
Anyone else foresee a continuation of bullish action from solars in the next couple days?
Just bought 1000 shares of CSUN at 3.21 (with a plan to double up at 3.04 if it goes that low and a stop loss just under $3) looking for a swing to $4 due to a beautiful rising channel on the daily chart. The 10-minute charts on other solars I'm looking at are beginning to base out(not sure if there's an ETF or some other type of broader indicator for solars?), and CSUN is at trendline support which also happens to be the previous resistance and strong looking buy orders on the level 2 quotes, which is what prompted my entry.
But I must admit, I don't have a lot of knowledge on solars. I just know they've been performing very well in the last month.
Just bought 1000 shares of CSUN at 3.21 (with a plan to double up at 3.04 if it goes that low and a stop loss just under $3) looking for a swing to $4 due to a beautiful rising channel on the daily chart. The 10-minute charts on other solars I'm looking at are beginning to base out(not sure if there's an ETF or some other type of broader indicator for solars?), and CSUN is at trendline support which also happens to be the previous resistance and strong looking buy orders on the level 2 quotes, which is what prompted my entry.
But I must admit, I don't have a lot of knowledge on solars. I just know they've been performing very well in the last month.
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Walmart? Boo! I don't like em, and I don't think they will do well with the new retail enviro. Losing to Amazon and smaller sized store fronts.
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I don't mean that KMI is a bad company. They have a great business model. The promising of 10% div raises for 10 hears was nuts. Also issuing preferred shares at 9.25% is basically junk bonds.
I am heavy jnj. Looking at GILD.
I am thinking of following NYCB into SIFI.
I also want more MO, a d want to get into PM.
I'm good on industrials and consumer goods
I am heavy jnj. Looking at GILD.
I am thinking of following NYCB into SIFI.
I also want more MO, a d want to get into PM.
I'm good on industrials and consumer goods
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Rednecks still need Wally's World.
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Man KMI is getting killed. It's cap intensive, and its close to junk status. It is danverous now IMHO, not just price but fundamentals, as it crossed the 5.5 FCF to debt ratio.
Downgrades are poison to cap intensive companies
Downgrades are poison to cap intensive companies
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My vote is never double up on a losing position, if 3.04 is your view on a low risk entry then i don't think you should have bought at 3.21, wait for 3.04 or sit in cash. Everyone is different though, preservation of account equity comes first for me. (edit i see your stop now). There are so many stocks posing record profits and maintaining long term uptrends, chances are CSUN isn't a stock that will see institutional buying any time soon. If it does, i would rather someone else take the first punch at it before i follow.
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I think oil has bottomed out. It might stay low for a while but eventually it will go up again. I have purchased at these lows.
Thanks for your input. But regarding my plan to double up:
I'm not really doubling up on losers, I'm just scaling into the position. I like to scale into positions in halves or thirds because I've been burned too many times by market makers running stops or the market/sector retracing and causing my stock to bust down to the next support level.
CSUN's technicals say that it should bounce off the 3.20 area, and up to somewhere between $3.50 and $4.00, but I'm not sure if the solar sector as a whole is ready to bounce. If solars continue to fall, CSUN might break down to the next support level which is $3.03, but the uptrend is not in danger until it drops below $3. My scale in and stop loss are calculated to represent a 2% risk to my capital.
Perhaps you're right that CSUN isn't going to see institutional action, but that chart was too attractive to pass up. I see a breakout followed by a retest of the breakout area, which as I understand, is quite common and is considered a "second chance" to buy the breakout.
I don't like that it closed below $3.20 but I do like that it did so on reduced volume.
In retrospect, though, I would have liked to wait for some kind of confirmation of a bounce off that breakout area before I bought anything, but the stock isn't quite liquid enough. There was a 5 cent spread when I put my order in at 3.21 and I would not have wanted to chase that. So I just went with my gut.
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True. But I feel Walmart has lost it'sway. Which is why it's not garnering the profit margins of old
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no it won't. Oil production is up 1m more a day since last year. OPEC won't cut. Jranyis auctioning off fields, plus is joining the market.
To top it off fracking is profitable around $60.
Then there is no real uptick in demand, as the Chinese market stopped it's rises in demand.
Oil is dead money for years to come.
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I have heard too many bad things about IBM, from too many sources as of late. I am going to divest my holding in it to almost nothing. It may bounce back, but I don't mind using the money to buy other decent stocks that I am more sure of ie UL, UNP and maybe JNJ too
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It'll be fine. Same for McD's.
If it doesn't grow or go anywhere in a few years, I'll sell, but for now, it's a steal.
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http://www.barrons.com/articles/BL-AFUNDSB-4390 anyone still bullish on oil?
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The last 2 years for IBM have been a roller coaster of disappointment. Intel would have been the better play over the last year and their yield higher as well. Of course that's in hindsight.
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My bad, I was logged out of my scottrade account and the links were working for me. Heres some screenshots
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I think in the really big picture OPEC may be trying to destroy these American oil companies and the buy them out for pennies on the dollar. I think that may be one of their objectives. Just a theory and certainly not their only objective.
I do think, when it comes to oil, that this is an accumulation phase. Strong support at $39 and weak support at $40. The dollar is really strong right now, but, since the Yuan was added to the IMF basket, the dollar may slowly get weaker just because of that. A weaker dollar would help oil prices.
I do think, when it comes to oil, that this is an accumulation phase. Strong support at $39 and weak support at $40. The dollar is really strong right now, but, since the Yuan was added to the IMF basket, the dollar may slowly get weaker just because of that. A weaker dollar would help oil prices.
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I understand your take on it, csun is so volatile i think it might blur the lines on what is really support and resistance.
As you can see on your chart, the last strong bump in late may ultimately failed all the way down to 2.76 which is clearly visible on an hourly timeframe. (it would be too easy for bulls to hit 4 and cash out, and two easy for shorts to hit 2.76 and cash out so i think the chances are both of us will be wrong in some way)
And the fact that it is exiting a head and shoulders pattern (hourly) from 6/26/14 - 7/3/14 with a bleed off close in similar fashion to the 6/2/14 close (that bled to 2.76) would put it in my bearish category (if i even traded something like this)
Both of our arguments seem reasonable, you could long until 4 or short until 2.76, in the end its all about risk management (edit i see your total risk now)
As you can see on your chart, the last strong bump in late may ultimately failed all the way down to 2.76 which is clearly visible on an hourly timeframe. (it would be too easy for bulls to hit 4 and cash out, and two easy for shorts to hit 2.76 and cash out so i think the chances are both of us will be wrong in some way)
And the fact that it is exiting a head and shoulders pattern (hourly) from 6/26/14 - 7/3/14 with a bleed off close in similar fashion to the 6/2/14 close (that bled to 2.76) would put it in my bearish category (if i even traded something like this)
Both of our arguments seem reasonable, you could long until 4 or short until 2.76, in the end its all about risk management (edit i see your total risk now)
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OPEC is openly battling each other too. It's kind of nuts in the oil world now.
I'm glad I got out of KMI when I did, even if it is at a loss. Losses suck, but it's dropped even further since then. Today it closed a little over $16!!! 3 months ago it was trading at $30, 1 month ago it was trading at $26 and just 5 days ago it was at $24. Kinda crazy.
I'm glad I got out of KMI when I did, even if it is at a loss. Losses suck, but it's dropped even further since then. Today it closed a little over $16!!! 3 months ago it was trading at $30, 1 month ago it was trading at $26 and just 5 days ago it was at $24. Kinda crazy.
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Almost anything would have been better. I got in in 1999, so it has been good to me, til now. I hope to get out at 190, and wish I got out at north of 200.
I don't like the taking on debt for buy backs. Just sucha dangerous thing to do. Esp since they've dropped $45B on buy backs in the past 2 years or so.
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Well OPEC is over. They can't really maintain a quote anymore. So it's a free for all. Add in frackers and its nuts.
It's funny about KMI. There's still tons of bulls on SA. Sad as they can't let it go. Kinder isn't God after all. Get over it.
BTW I'm looking into V. I'm going to sell 2/3 of PG and either get NYCB or V. I want more growth than PG can offer me. As its a bond with a heart beat. Heck T is a higher yields and has similar growth/security
It's funny about KMI. There's still tons of bulls on SA. Sad as they can't let it go. Kinder isn't God after all. Get over it.
BTW I'm looking into V. I'm going to sell 2/3 of PG and either get NYCB or V. I want more growth than PG can offer me. As its a bond with a heart beat. Heck T is a higher yields and has similar growth/security
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2013 yearly net income dropping for the first time in 8 years didn't help things, but their tax rate was the lowest possibly ever. It looks like the stock is on the rebound. You got about $1.50 to go.
Horizon Pharma is currently trying to buy Depomed Inc. HZNP has been buying other pharmaceuticals like Hyperion Therapeutics and Vidara Therapeutics. This just opens up for instant revenue and R&D on pipeline medicine. http://www.horizonpharma.com/transactions/
I bought and sold NVAX. Bought it on 7/10/15 @$12.12 and it went down to $10.52. It spiked shortly after and I decided to sell it after that sharp spike just because I knew others would do the same. I sold on 8/11/15 @$14.43 so I made a dent profit and it was a good time to get out lol. Whats the news/speculation?
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Yeah they really have been doing gymnastics to make it seem as though the EPS is rising, and not falling. It will catch up. Also the cloud and other new sectors are so crowded with service companies, heck even Xerox is a competitor now. IBM can't roll with their high margins like they used to.
Yep, I may get sell today in fact
What isnt showing up? Images?
Good call, I didn't see the head and shoulder on the hourly.
Ugh, you could be right. 2.76 is actually the bottom when it comes to that intermediate uptrend. In retrospect, perhaps this was not the highest percentage move. I'll keep that in mind the next time I'm choosing a stock. Nothing would upset me more than getting stopped out at 2.90 and then watching the stock bounce off of 2.80.
Still, since I'm already in it, I'm going to stick to the plan. It's still summertime and solars have been a hot sector as of late, so I still feel my chances are good.
Thanks for your input though. You've given me something to think about and one more thing to consider when picking stocks.
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I don't see MCD doing that well. Like PG I don't see any real growth in the mid term. Like 1-3% annually. Which fails the chowder rule.
I really think McDonald's will be like Yum. Just meandering around and occasionally getting things right but also having sig problems. MCD is still bleeding here in Japan
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Here's an IBM article that came out today. I thought it was pretty good.
http://seekingalpha.com/article/2299665-the-truth-about-ibm-no-one-comes-out-to-say
http://seekingalpha.com/article/2299665-the-truth-about-ibm-no-one-comes-out-to-say
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My friend did the research. I will post it later. Basically they have a good pipeline and things are mostly clearing phase III. Which is really promising.
Bio tech may be the only group that is do well. As the emerging world is going to get beat up with QE ending. Is basically has to happen. So it's going to be meh for awhile.
Also with Saudi they'll never see expensive oil again. As soon as it goes up more tracking comes online to bring it back down
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Yep read that. Been a lot of little things like no products in the pipeline. Declining customer service and lower quality Indian employees. I think they will be like Dell, owning a good but melting business and struggling to get into new ones
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Dude I'm looking at a 30 year timeline, so 1-3 years isn't going to hurt me. If it's a good entry point for long term investments, I'm game. WMT is totally fairly valued based on most metrics right now, and with a super low P/E ratio I bought in.
I am also honestly considering retooling the whole portfolio and going to like 10 core positions. We'll see.
Core 10 in no particular order: KMB, KO, T, V, XOM, PG, GIS, MMM, JNJ, O/CLX/GILD/BDX, and I'd keep my wife's portfolio at PEP, MO, LMT, ED and EMR, giving us 10 core, 5 ancillaries. I could swap out V for HCP/COP/VZ/MSFT/WFC and be ok with that. Doing so would decrease my yield slightly but not much, and would decrease my beta 0.2 which would be awesome.
Current portfolio not including 401k MFs and stock:
GILD
WMT
BDX
HCP
KMB
KO
CVX
KMI
T
COP
V
IBM
WSM
VZ
APD
O
MSFT
XOM
GIS
AAPL
UL
JNJ
CHD
CAT
PG
MMM
WFC
CLX
EMR
PEP
MO
ED
LMT
Market kicked my ass the last couple days. Made a nice day trade to mitigate the damage I took but damn those sell-off days always hit me right when I start to feel confident.
Should have seen it coming, I suppose, as overbought as the indices were, with the Russell 2000 coming up on it's all time high.
Should have seen it coming, I suppose, as overbought as the indices were, with the Russell 2000 coming up on it's all time high.
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I gotcha. I just think that Walmart and MCD will underperform the market. Esp in regards to div growth. I also think for MCD it's not cheap enough to buy. As it has a turn around to accomplish plus the November div will be 1-3%. And with it's payout ratio I see it being low for the next couple years too. If you're going to get low growth. Get it cheap/ high yield
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http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/85d9d3...tional_standard&iab=barrier-app#axzz3oIg9RKd4. Gotta subscribe. But the gist is that shale producers will jump in anytime oil goes up. Keeping prices low. Maybe forever
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I've been looking at Boeing and Jon Deer for a while. Both quite expensive companies to buy 100 shares.
