REFEREE JOE CORTEZ: CONNOR HAS A PUNCHER´S CHANCE

[Sharkey]

Apparently he's as low as mid -300's on some uk/euro bookies, or at least was that low as recently as a couple days ago. They are probably dealing with the three way lines or whatever you call them, seems like most uk books don't give you a push on draws, not that a draw is a likely outcome in this fight, but still probably why the line is even lower over there, along with a lot more Conor fans, I'd assume.

You big money sharps must be laughing your asses off at the lines you're seeing, Blunt.

 

[BluntTrauma21]

You big money sharps must be laughing your asses off at the lines you're seeing, Blunt.

Haha I'm no big bankroll guy, modest at the best of times compared to some of the guys I know putting down 5 figures here. But yeah it's pretty ridiculous. Almost not funny anymore b/c I really don't have any idea what the fuck is going down with this Conor money.

You think there's a bit of great white hope type of mentality here? I honestly can't think of much else other than guys betting with their hearts rather than heads.

 

[Shoemaker]

TS why don't you ask someone like Lennox Lewis what the definition of "puncher's chance" really is. He'll tell you that all it means is anybody that's capable of throwing a punch can win by TKO/KO. You only need to be able to form a solid fist and throw a punch. If it lands, especially flush, it's possible that you could stop your opponent. Conor has some respectable speed, precision, power and timing on his straight left, though this has not been proven in boxing (his power that is). So, you could say that he has an increased puncher's chance at best with that one punch.

That's kind of the thing about this matchup. McGregor could have the best straight left known to man, and it's still only one punch. From what I've seen he doesn't really have a jab or much of a hook, doesn't throw well to the body. If Floyd only needs to worry about negating one thing, no matter how good that thing is, he's going to have an easier night than usual.

I've always thought of fighting Floyd as trying to do one of those Simon-says light puzzles. You don't beat him by making the one green light go off over and over again. You beat him by throwing so many different looks at him that he'll eventually make a mistake. That's why I think guys like Cotto, Maidana and Castillo had such great success. A simple thing like changing your level between punches gets you one step closer to Floyd messing up the rhythm. Eventually he's got to start taking chances to mount his offense, and that's when someone like Cotto catches him with a jab or hook from below; it's when Maidana catches him with a counter that stiffens him up. It's all built around variety.

At the end of the day though, it's just really hard to do.

 

[Sharkey]

Haha I'm no big bankroll guy, modest at the best of times compared to some of the guys I know putting down 5 figures here. But yeah it's pretty ridiculous. Almost not funny anymore b/c I really don't have any idea what the fuck is going down with this Conor money.

You think there's a bit of great white hope type of mentality here? I honestly can't think of much else other than guys betting with their hearts rather than heads.

It's all hope and a hope that's being manipulated, my friend. Whether it's the great white variety or some other kind, people are betting McGregor based on what they hope he does. The entire promotion for this fight (especially from the Mayweather side) is also only adding to their hope because the simpletons are believing these little snippets in the videos and whatnot. Mayweather is portraying himself as an old man on his last legs who has hardly done any training for this fight. On the other side you have McGregor being portrayed as some kind of new boxing phenom who is able to crush former world boxing champions in sparring in the little snippets they've seen of him. Both sides have been trying to manipulate the public into seeing it as a competitive fight and the sheep are eating it up.

 

[BluntTrauma21]

It's all hope and a hope that's being manipulated, my friend. Whether it's the great white variety or some other kind, people are betting McGregor based on what they hope he does. The entire promotion for this fight (especially from the Mayweather side) is also only adding to their hope because the simpletons are believing these little snippets in the videos and whatnot. Mayweather is portraying himself as an old man on his last legs who has hardly done any training for this fight. On the other side you have McGregor being portrayed as some kind of new boxing phenom who is able to crush former world boxing champions in sparring in the little snippets they've seen of him. Both sides have been trying to manipulate the public into seeing it as a competitive fight and the sheep are eating it up.

That's about as well as I've seen anyone put it, solid as always Shark. Thank ya sir.

 

[LATEXXX COMMANDO]

Honestly, he doesn't.

He doesn't even have a punchers chance.

 

[Shoemaker]

My prediction for August 27th is that all of the white/yellow belts with Conor-homage names disappear, and they're replaced with a precisely equal number of people saying they knew it was a ruse all the time, how could people fall for the manipulation, blah blah.

 

[Sharkey]

The books must be in a tough position this week leading up to the fight. I'm sure they want more money coming in on Mayweather just so they have that insurance there. But if they drop the line too much to encourage those wagers on him then they're opening themselves up in a big way for the true big money sharps to come swooping in once the line on Floyd bottoms out. It's very interesting. What do they do?

 

[Sharkey]

That's about as well as I've seen anyone put it, solid as always Shark. Thank ya sir.

Any big sporting event, and especially one of this magnitude, brings out the "dumb money" in droves, Blunt. You know that already.

 

[Kovalev's "Man Bag"]

That's kind of the thing about this matchup. McGregor could have the best straight left known to man, and it's still only one punch. From what I've seen he doesn't really have a jab or much of a hook, doesn't throw well to the body. If Floyd only needs to worry about negating one thing, no matter how good that thing is, he's going to have an easier night than usual.

I've always thought of fighting Floyd as trying to do one of those Simon-says light puzzles. You don't beat him by making the one green light go off over and over again. You beat him by throwing so many different looks at him that he'll eventually make a mistake. That's why I think guys like Cotto, Maidana and Castillo had such great success. A simple thing like changing your level between punches gets you one step closer to Floyd messing up the rhythm. Eventually he's got to start taking chances to mount his offense, and that's when someone like Cotto catches him with a jab or hook from below; it's when Maidana catches him with a counter that stiffens him up. It's all built around variety.

At the end of the day though, it's just really hard to do.

Yeah, Conor's punch selection is quite limited. He obviously has his straight left and he has an uppercut that he can lead and occasionally counter with. He'll throw hooks but they're not very tight and he doesn't stay defensively responsible often times. His jab is very underutilized, not very powerful/stiff (authoritative) and not what I'd call educated. He rarely mixes it up to go to the body and when he does it's him reaching with his straight left. He can put together some basic combinations. Lateral movement, a decent jab (for MMA) and check hooks have given him problems (Diaz I). That and guys with comparable reach which Floyd has have shown to be problematic. Conor relies a lot on his reach to stay out of danger and overextends with his straight left regularly. The number of setups for his straight left will be limited in boxing but in MMA he has more (ie., he uses kicks to get them to pressure and then counters). He can give some different looks like switching stances, feinting, pressuring then immediately looking to counter but not much beyond these things. We'll probably see him change levels more since he doesn't have to worry about dealing with flying knees or kicks.

His gameplan, according to his coach, is confusion through movement and a mixture of unorthodox looks. Once he's figured out he'll have nothing left to fall back on but attempting to be unpredictable so that it takes some time initially for Floyd to get an accurate read on him. His punch selection will still be limited and his boxing ability (IQ and defense included). Giving all the looks in the world and his best single punch aren't going to be enough when Floyd cuts through the bullshit and starts landing. It'll change his gameplan, which as I said earlier I believe will be roughing in order to make this a very dirty, ugly fight.

 

[stuff jones]

Yet another thread on this fight. Us boxing fans suck with the ratio of attention we've given this fight vs ggg canelo

 

[burningspear]

Relic makes generic statement wtf!

 

[BluntTrauma21]

Any big sporting event, and especially one of this magnitude, brings out the "dumb money" in droves, Blunt. You know that already.

Lol very true, just never seen anything like this. 49-0 vs 0-0 a fight that shouldn't even be sanctioned, not even in Texas, and he's only a 5-1 favorite. Epitome of dumb money, for sure.

You throwing anything on this or staying away?

 

[Shoemaker]

Relic makes generic statement wtf!

haha

Cortez went on to say "I know this much: on August 26th, Floyd Mayweather and Conor McGregor WILL box. Both guys will throw punches, move around with their feet. You're all sleeping on this, it's going to be a boxing match."

 

[Sharkey]

Lol very true, just never seen anything like this. 49-0 vs 0-0 a fight that shouldn't even be sanctioned, not even in Texas, and he's only a 5-1 favorite. Epitome of dumb money, for sure.

You throwing anything on this or staying away?

Nah, I stopped my online betting phase some years ago because I don't have the discipline to stop myself from betting my own "dumb money" into things I know little about. I thought about opening up another account for this fight here, but I'd just get sucked in again after the fight like the rest of you degenerates.

 

[BluntTrauma21]

The books must be in a tough position this week leading up to the fight. I'm sure they want more money coming in on Mayweather just so they have that insurance there. But if they drop the line too much to encourage those wagers on him then they're opening themselves up in a big way for the true big money sharps to come swooping in once the line on Floyd bottoms out. It's very interesting. What do they do?

Exactly. Books are in a weird position here. They are very exposed if Conor was to somehow pull a win out of his ass, but then again who knows when or how hard the sharps will come in when Floyd does bottom out, like you said. It's odd, needing Floyd Mayweather to win a boxing match is a pretty good position to be in, esp considering the dude he's fighting, but at the same time it's gotta be nerve wracking being that exposed, no matter how unlikely Conor is to win.

I hear rumors out in Vegas about how the whales are planning on coming in on fight day. We'll see if they do it earlier than that. Time is running out though, so they gotta move quick.

 

[Kovalev's "Man Bag"]

Before

After

 

[Shoemaker]

Before

After

If McGregor becomes a black ATG I'll eat my hat.

 

[BluntTrauma21]

Nah, I stopped my online betting phase some years ago because I don't have the discipline to stop myself from betting my own "dumb money" into things I know little about. I thought about opening up another account for this fight here, but I'd just get sucked in again after the fight like the rest of you degenerates.

Are you saying that I'm gonna lose all my Floyd winnings on the little league world series? B/c if so you are probably dead on. I've bet on so much dumb shit in my betting "career" it's ridiculous. It's actually pretty funny, but also ridiculous. You should've seen me last summer doing the olympics. "Beach volleyball, sure why not, nothing could go wrong here" lol.

 

[Kovalev's "Man Bag"]

If McGregor becomes a black ATG I'll eat my hat.

You knew what I meant. LOL. That'll be his advice that he should've received before deciding to "play boxing".